GC Trade UpdatesRecap on my position on the GOLD (GC) that I have in my portfolio with the physically replicated ETC XAD1 on the Frankfurt stock exchange.
From WS Italy:
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy at Saxo Bank, said:
“Overall, we expect a favorable 2023 for the gold market, supported by recession and equity market devaluation risks: an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation that does not return to the expected level of less than 3% within the year. Furthermore, the de-dollarisation observed by several central banks last year, when a record amount of gold was bought, looks set to continue.
As often happens, the market has already “discounted” even if specifically it would be better to say “appreciated” what happened in the previous months, the threat of recession, and above all the recent banking crisis of SVB and Credit Suisse (imminent acquisition by UBS) .
All in all, I think it’s time to rebalance a position in profit of almost 10%.
I will take home part of the profits, aware of the fact that, as said by the analyst, gold could still go up. We are not talking about an index, but a commodity, which has historically exceeded 2000$ an ounce and has even dropped significantly.
I sell part of the position waiting for better times for other purchases.
As always, I leave you with Warren Buffett‘s quote: “We simply try to be afraid when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are afraid”
Keep moving forward!
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Lazybull
GOOGLE (GOOG) Trade UpdatesRecap on my position on Google, Apple and Facebook, the 3 bit techs I have in my portfolio.
Google spectacular entry and obviously also lucky. ($85.94)
There is still a long way to go, for a share that from the highs of February 22, at the time of my entry had lost about 45%.
I remain in position with a generous 20% profit, there is a lot of volume structure to recover, and it is not yet the time to bring home part of the profits.
As always, I give some indications purely for personal purposes:
Short-term target: $115
Medium-term target: $125
Long-term target (mine): Historical highs
So I find myself holding the stock indefinitely, I’ll take home something for $125 to cover operating costs but I don’t want to do anything else.
If the price retraces I have other entry levels that I mentioned in previous posts.
I also leave my update on Apple (up 23%) and Meta (+18%).
All in all, a good month.
Keep moving forward!
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
ETF PortfolioETF PORTFOLIO, TIME TO REBALANCE?
After accumulating heavily between May and July, the time to rebalance the ETF portfolio is approaching.
It has been a planting year, the partial harvest could come very soon. Despite the difficulties, everything is proceeding as it should, especially on the MSCI World, which has held up very well a complicated year like 2022.
The complete portfolio is up 12.5% after the last rebalancing, if we also take into consideration my trading strategy connected to it, we arrive well above 20%.
Not bad in terms of resilience in a year where my stock portfolio closed with a drawdown of -7.5%, supported by Apple and Amazon who underperformed anyway.
Partial sale target €79.50
For other assets ... well you know...
Happy trading
LazyBull
GOOGLE (GOOG) Trade UpdatesGoogle (GOOG) Trade Updates
I entered November (see previous post) near the bottom with a price of 85.87, a profit of 13% so far, but the road is still long.
The volume knot near POC held up well, but the upper areas are very well covered.
Here too, as for AMZN, my target is the historical highs, even if for the medium term, the target is $115-120.
To keep an eye on earnings, Google is a company that I personally consider on a par with Apple, despite having a lower market cap, but has recently had some internal problems, which have seen significant layoffs in the staff.
This could also be positive in terms of the budget, you always have to look at the bigger picture.
Artificial intelligence, automatic driving and augmented reality remain the sectors to be monitored, clearly the core business remains the search engine and the revenues from the ads generated, also pay attention to the technology used in the Stadia project; it could be resold under license to other giants of the video game industry.
In conclusion, very negative earnings could push the price towards the $70 level, where I would increase my position.
Targets:
short: get out now
medium: 115-120$
long : $151
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Amazon (AMZN) Updates ---> LONGAmazon (AMZN) Trade Updates
Amazon arrives in the volumetric accumulation zone of the last 2 years.
the price reacted in the best way both on the weekly and on the daily,
Waiting for the Earnings, which in 2022 have not been good for the first time in years, even considering the last quarter positive in cash flow, but negative in net profit margin (-20%).
Now, in the case of neutral data, I will certainly evaluate a further entry, having an average price of about $106, I expect to double the exposure.
My target is all-time highs, although volumetrically one could think of an exit at $160
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Google BUY Negative quarterly for Google
I bought GOOG shares on Friday, we are almost - 50% from the highs of February.
Negative quarterly, why?
Various reasons, analyzing the company economic balance sheet, we can see a considerable increase in the number of employees going from 150,000 to approximately 186,000.
This is a symptom of a recovery expected in 2023, with projects in the pipeline, especially on augmented reality and the integration of the navigation system of autopilot cars.
The numbers of the core business, the marketing on the various proprietary channels (search engine, youtube) are almost unchanged, a symptom that, despite the period of severe crisis, Google remains the first point of reference on the web where companies invest to advertise. its products. Other than the discourse on meta for example, which had rather worrying numbers.
On the hardware side, it should be noted that the pixel 7 has been released in its two versions, which has not yet brought the numbers, so we have to wait for the next quarter to see the trend of what seems to be really a gem, as opposed to the disappointment that was the pixel 6.
To report the complete flop of the Stadia gaming platform, which could certainly be supported in a better way, but which, as it was for Google plus, was left there, to implode on itself.
Here sometimes one wonders how a company like google can do such interesting projects and then not support them properly.
In any case, the company is a money machine, the market has discounted a lot and I thought it was time to enter, aware of the fact that, should it go down to the $ 70 area, I will enter again, being a very important volumetric support.
Target the highs, as a partial exit, to take home the profits, so this is a trade that could last months if not years.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Gold (XAD1) ETF Trade UpdatesBuy when others are afraid ... Warren Buffett said.
I have always followed this phrase and have almost always had region, but I dare to say ALWAYS, speaking of ETFs and long-term portfolios.
We are in a year that will be remembered, certainly the first 6 worst months since the 70s.
I've been accumulating on all my ETFs since early January 2022 and I am sure the market will agree with me.
Now, let's talk about gold, because, unlike the other ETFs that I manage both actively and passively, I manage it ONLY in an active way, knowing its dynamics very well, as I do with oil.
We arrived on very important volumetric support, so on Friday, I went to buy on the ETF that replicates the futures, at 105.26.
The possible landing in area 100-101 marks the second entry level and, for those who do short-term trading, the target I recommend is 115.
The completely anomalous trend of this "refuge" asset continues, which from 2020 instead seems to follow the market.
This may be related to the bond trend, which is making a lot of money recently.
Anyway, I think the current prices are quite interesting, we are more than -20% from the highs.
I will not rebalance my portfolio percentage before I land on all-time highs.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISNEY (DIS) UpdatesExcellent quarterly reports for The Walt Disney Company.
The strong recovery in tourism in its theme parks has driven the company’s profits with a resounding + 600%.
Streaming revenues increased by 11% but profits fell by 32% . This figure certainly makes us reflect and could be a harbinger of incoming increases for the Disney plus service which for now, has wanted to make room in a world with important competitors (Netflix and Amazon first videos above all), providing its service to aggressive pricing.
Remember that the Media & Entertainment Distribution sector also includes two other proprietary platforms, namely Hulu and ESPN +.
Overall operating profit increased by 50% and is the reason for the upward gap of 11 August.
On a graphical level, after hitting $ 90 per share, the price reacted, driven by the important pull-back of the S&P 500 which is still ongoing; already last week, speaking of Amazon, I said that I would expect a retracement, which will surely happen.
At that moment I will add size on Disney, as I am now in a slight drawdown having an average price of around $ 150.
After all, in the last two years, the price has traded more in the $ 170 area. It is reasonable to expect a price in that area in the next 6 months, as long as the economic situation stabilizes and inflation falls back to around 3 percentage points, which is still a long way off at the moment.
Disney certainly shows solidity, thanks to its core business, which has strongly recovered. There is definitely room for improvement in the streaming field, we hope they find the right way.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Amazon (AMZN) trade updatesClosing of the GAP at the end of April for Amazon, which had lateralized after the split.
In a week characterized by a positive reaction from the markets, thanks to quarterly better than expected or, as in the case of amazon, less bad than expected and thanks also to a Fed that simply confirms what it had anticipated.
Now the key data will be those of July inflation, considering that some people think that the peak occurred in June.
They are up almost 40% on Amazon and 30% on Apple , two companies that are almost a safe haven asset in difficult times.
For this reason, I will not liquidate the whole position but on the contrary, I will accumulate should there be a retracement, which I expect.
In the short term, those who have had the skill to enter the $ 105 area could think of taking home the profits and preparing to accumulate on the retracement.
If you want to hold the position, $ 145 could be a possible target, considering the 200-period moving average, which is usually felt by the price.
On a volumetric level, the one-year POC holds firmly against $ 165, there are no possible areas for it to move, considering the huge amount of trading at that price level.
That's where I'll take some of the profits home.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Volumetric SPY, a bounce or...?Hello everyone, after a bit of relaxation I'll be back to update you here and on the various platforms.
2022, as we know and have now metabolized, will be remembered as a rather black year, how black the second half of the year will tell, which could take back one of the worst declines in the history of the S&P, or sink the blow further.
Let's first analyze the SPY chart, where we can see, as always, that the volumes have supported the market rebounds , even in this slightly interlocutory summer phase.
After the first low volume node in area 410 was punctured, the market then rebounded in area 390, returning to retest the level. Subsequently it has punctured until it reaches area 365, another low volume node and now we are again in area 390. Classic downward trend.
In the last few days, however, we have had quite decisive uptrend days, it must be seen, being the third week of the month, where the monthly options expire, if they are movements aimed at directing the price in certain areas, pushed by institutional money, or it is the first reversal signal.
One thing is certain, either way, we will have a retracement, probably in the next week or the following. If it stops above the volume node in area 365, and then starts again, it will be an excellent signal.
The coming week will also be correlated with potentially very impactful news, which could raise volatility, so watch out for days 26, 27 and 28 where we will have the consumer confidence report, the FED meeting and the GDP data for the second quarter, in this order.
As for my operations, I have only accumulated my portfolio of ETFs and I have mediated on a few single shares (Apple and Airbnb). It is absolutely not the time to sell, this will come, and if we have "sown" wisely, we will have a good harvest.
While not doing speculative forex, trading 80% in USD, I always keep an eye on the EUR / USD. My "target" was the 1/1 , achieved, which made me earn a good percentage of the capital.
In times of downturns, at least the dollar brings some comfort.
I would like to point out the Gold, which arrived in a very important area, historically of rebound and volumetric accumulation. I have recently added on the related ETC which replicates the performance of the futures.
That's all for today,
Happy Trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Good time for a Portfolio rebalancing.After a Friday characterized by a choppy market, only to close with a small liquidation at 4107 (futures), indecision still reigns among investors and it is understandable, considering the macro economic data and commodities.
My own commodity ETF performs + 156%
Normally June is a month of rebalancing, although obviously, we are living in a particular historical period and I don't think I am relieving myself heavily.
Interesting week for Amazon (AMZN) with an upcoming historical split of 20/1 that will, in my opinion, lead to numerous purchases on the stock that opens, after years, to small investors.
Apple (AAPL) after a good week, closes with a bad day , driven by the market, the upcoming conference and the products presented will be important. Net of market movements related to the Nasdaq or S&P, Apple remains the excellence of American companies, in my opinion so solid that it is considered a new safe haven for long time investors.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Bear market?Bear market? Yes, an increasingly similar 2022, even worse, to 2018. This is already what we are experiencing on the financial markets.
Hard times for long traders, for swing traders, while golden opportunities for day traders, for those who know how to take advantage of moments of volatility. Volatility that hasn't been seen in a while, especially on the S&P500.
As for me, having a very very strict risk management, for swing or day trading operations, I prefer to focus on the long-term portfolio, accumulating and rebalancing my ETF portfolio which is my real "safe haven" in difficult times.
It is during the downturn that stocks pass from the hands of traders to those of investors. One of the most truthful phrases I've ever heard since doing this job.
Returning to trading, the expectation for June 15-16 is felt by the market; uncertainty has never brought anything good, paradoxically a further .50 point hike from the FED but with falling inflation it would be welcomed by the market. The level of inflation is the most important thermometer, and it has reached such high levels that it bothered some analysts to remember the Volcker maneuver.
I don't think so and I hope it will go that far. What is certain is that the Fed has waited too long to raise rates and international tension and the consequent increase in commodities has aggravated the situation.
It is no coincidence that the oil trade and my commodity ETF are the two biggest gains this year as far as I'm concerned.
I close by summarizing my recent activities:
Purchase (accumulation) on Apple (AAPL) close May 19
MSCI World ETF purchase (accumulation) 19 May close
Buy (accumulate) emerging markets ETFs May 19th close
Happy trading
Lazy bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
2022, the new 2018?2022 has so far left a bad taste in the mouth of many investors; the best international funds are for the most part negative, not to mention ETFs heavily exposed on the Nasdaq such as those of ARK Invest.
For this reason, having a portfolio that is not overexposed on certain assets is of vital importance.
This is why short-term speculations, led by Alibaba at a loss in my portfolio, are balanced by macro ETFs, short-term treasury ETFs, gold and commodities ETFs (for obvious reasons with great performances from the end of 2021).
The importance of diversification.
That's why, in the long run, apart from a few super solid companies like Apple and Amazon, I don't believe in heavy allocation to sector ETFs. Simply because they will hardly beat the indexes.
My year, for now, is slightly positive and I am 70% cash, because you have to be ready to enter, always with micro size, diluted over time.
We are facing 3 bad scenarios: the increase in rates by the FED and the European central bank, to counteract very high inflation (also pumped by the increase in raw materials), the coronavirus in China, with 20,000 cases per day, and a new lockdown that worries and last but not least, the war between Russia and Ukraine.
After a -10% from the high, the S&P 500 rebounded and then pulled back again. We have recently been accustomed to some pretty fast V shapes, perfect for those who have had the foresight to invest during the downturns and I really hope we can see new highs within this year.
Although, the similarities between 2022 and 2018 are starting to be evident.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Royal Gold (RGLD) BuyThe relationship between gold and inflation is particularly important. In times of high inflation, in fact, a significant increase in gold prices is usually observed, but this correlation is not always valid and not for all inflation values. In any case, however, gold represents a good defense in inflationary periods, since, in the face of a decrease in the purchasing power of money, gold is the perfect way to preserve one's wealth.
Now, there are 2 ways to buy gold:
- futures or ETC
- buy stocks of companies that mine and trade physical gold
Royal gold does not only deal with that, but with various precious metals.
I purchased in early January and added on Friday with an average price of $ 106.21.
The inflation to the top since 1982, the Ukrainian crisis, a further reversal of the market even at double-digit percentage is not at all impossible, for this reason, it is necessary to cover ourselves and if we do not want to do it with leveraged contracts, we must use shares or ETCs that they replicate the trend of the futures (and even there they are hedged for the long term).
My hope is that if there is to be a crash, it will be fast, a V-shape as seen around the time of the first wave of COVID-19. We must instead hope that we will not have another 2008 because those are the worst years for the stock market.
For the rest, for those who follow me, I have accumulated in the long-term portfolio, on the S&P 500 ETF, AMZN, FB, ABNB, and AAPL.
On Meta, I will do a separate study, but obviously, for those who, like me, believe in the company and in the metaverse, this could be a great shopping period!
Happy Trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Apple (AAPL) Take profit + 32%Apple (AAPL) Take profit
After a month of the war, the markets made a major rebound and I took profit in some trades.
I share this one publicly, Apple (AAPL, Nasdaq), closing part of a position with + 32% profit on Thursday.
The solidity of the Cupertino-based company is truly impressive, grinding record after record and demonstrating great relative strength, even in times of market liquidation.
Important for the continuation of the title will be the resolution of the semiconductor crisis and the United States-China relationship, which in my opinion must improve, for the good of all.
On a volumetric analysis, we have a level that I share publicly, which is a very important point to enter, should the price retrace, which is $ 148-150.
Happy Trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Portfolio and ENI Take profit (+50%)War.
High, very high volatility.
These are times when stocks move from traders to investors.
So it is right to accept drawdowns, obviously not in leverage and weighted, having liquidity to mediate when this problem passes.
However, there are some "favorable" situations even in these times, which help to rebalance the portfolio and create liquidity.
This is the case of Eni, the main Italian energy company, with a strong correlation with oil (sold last week with a profit of 165%, see my previous article), which is obviously retracing, after hitting $ 120 per barrel...
Set a stop profit reached today with an overall profit of just over 50%.
I also rebalanced the very long-term portfolio, selling part of my benchmark energy ETF with a 144% profit. (ALL of these numbers are proven)
Of course not all that glitters is gold; I had to accept a heavy stop-loss on BIDU and PLTR (partial).
I added some more gold and MSCI World for the very long-term portfolio.
The advice I can give to those who are investing and swing trading at the moment is to remain liquid and enter only and only on very extreme levels, already well established through volumetric analysis.
Forget the technical analysis. You know what I think, but particularly in these moments, it is garbage.
Happy trading and God bless all those who are suffering from an absurd war. Of any ethnicity, nationality, or religion.
Peace.
LazyBull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Crude oil take profit +165%An explosion of volatility on oil, due to a mix of factors and obviously amplified by the situation in Ukraine.
I closed my position on the ETC this morning which reflects the performance of the CL1 futures with a profit of 165%
In my opinion, this volatility should be exploited, even though we are aware of no longer finding an entry price like this, this profit had to be taken home, also considering the general context.
A major retracement is possible soon, as soon as the conflict ends … hopefully as soon as possible.
Happy trading
LazyBull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Gazprom (GAZ) time to buy?First of all, a dutiful thought to the victims in Ukraine, solidarity with their families and we hope that the situation will be resolved as soon as possible.
The situation in Russia is very tense, the economy risks a serious collapse due to the repercussions that sanctions could have on many sectors.
However, there are also some opportunities that I consider very interesting, one of which is Gazprom, which distributes the majority of gas to the major European countries, first of all Germany and Italy.
It has already been made clear that the sanctions, intended as the exclusion of Russia from the swift, will not affect the supply of gas, which is simply indispensable for a Europe which depends, in fact, on Russia.
Since the end of 2004 Gazprom has been the only supplier to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, as well as supplying 97% of the gas from Bulgaria, 89% from Hungary, 86% of the Poland, almost three quarters of that of the Czech Republic, 67% of Turkey, 65% of Austria, about 40% of Romania, 36% of Germany, 27% of Italy and 25% of France .
The collapse of the gas giant's share is therefore clearly a panic selling created by the war, as well as for Yandex (the Russian google), Aeroflot (the first Russian airline), and Sberbank.
But, for the banking system I have several doubts, even if I think it is wise to enter if it were to approach 1.5 € per share, (SBNC on the Frankfurt stock exchange), as regards Gazprom I believe that the increase in value in the long period.
As often happens to me, I divided my entry into 2 tranches, and I will only buy at a heavy discount, but the possibilities of making a 400% are all there, it remains to be seen in how long.
Obviously, as I always say in the disclaimer, mine is not financial advice, I speak only in a personal capacity and no one should invest money that they are not willing to lose. Because what I'm talking about here is a very risky situation,
Even more interesting is the situation of Yandex, which I will reserve for another article.
The coming week could be decisive, the meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus could lead to an agreement, as we all hope, or not, in the second case I will wait a little longer for any developments in the conflict.
One thing to consider is also the exchange factor: the ruble is at historic lows and an appreciation of these shares is highly likely that it will also be accompanied by a recovery of the ruble, which could make the investment even more profitable.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
VISA (V) UpdatesVery positive Friday for Visa, which opens in Gap up and closes the day with an important + 10.60%.
Positive earnings and a recent drop due more to take profit and emotional sell-off on the news regarding the dispute with Amazon UK, had created excellent buying opportunities for the world's leading credit card company.
As documented in previous posts, I bought $ 212 in the area and was ready to trade at $ 190, without being executed for 10 cents ... hey, that's trading!
Now, for those who want to hold the stock for a long time, the recent upside matters to a certain extent, indeed, if it retraces it would be an opportunity to accumulate.
For those who are looking for a profit and had entered around my average purchase price or better, an interesting first level is in the $ 232 area, where we have both the POC of the last 6 months and a gap to close.
It is likely that when it reaches that level, the price will suffer and retrace.
Let's remember that, as soon as the dispute with Amazon is resolved, the action could have a session similar to the one on Friday and, of course, the opposite is also true so I recommend following the story.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Crude oil (CRUD) ETC take profitDifficult period, the market in January retraced from the highs of a decided 11%, after the end of the year had not been so excellent in terms of "Christmas rally".
In these drawdown periods, in addition to cutting losses, accumulating on long-term portfolios, we must try to take home the profits where the market has overperformed.
In my case, oil gave me a + 100% price gain.
The instrument is an ETC which tracks the price of the CL futures! of which I have already written and it is the CRUD.
We are on almost 2-year highs, $ 86 per barrel, and US inventories are above expectations; In my opinion, there will be interventions at the international level to rebalance inflation which, in large part, is due precisely to the insane increase in raw materials.
So I sold, with a 100% gain on my position, since I have a very low purchase price.
For all the reasons I have described and also due to the fact that the market is clearly discounting the news of interest rates, it is, therefore, possible a decrease even fractionated until March-April, so in my opinion , it is very important to have the liquidity to invest when there will be the recovery.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Dropbox (DBX) tradeDropbox (DBX) trade
Hi everybody, Lazy Bull here of Save & Invest,
let's start this 2022 business, which will bring numerous innovations for those who follow me, with a limit order that I had in the market for some time, executed yesterday after the third consecutive reversal of the S & P500.
My trade, you can see from the screen, was $ 22.77, the low of the day was 22.70.
Magic? Crystal ball? ... obviously!
Joking aside, I have been telling you for months and showing you that the market is driven by only one thing, volumes. Whether they are institutional, retail, programmed algorithms ... the volumes on the price ranges are the REAL supports and resistances.
So why $ 22.77? Simply because it coincides with the POC of the last 2 years.
It can move, it could go up or down, depending on the time we select. Generally, I always check the poc of the last year and the previous one, to find the price levels where to make an entry or an accumulation (if we are talking about a long-term investment).
In the case of Dropbox, not being particularly volatile, I expect a rather long trade, although of course there is always the exception to the rule.
Said so it seems very simple, but obviously you cannot reduce everything to the purchase on the POC, also because this event does not always occur. Studying daily and having a method is the key to success.
Target price:
- $ 25.22: take profit for a quick 10% profit
- $ 28: important volumetric level
- $ 31: level where you can completely close the position
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
Activision (ATVI) Take profitActivision (ATVI) Take Profit
Time to take profit
After the news of the acquisition by Microsoft for nearly 70 billion dollars, Activision (ATVI) jumps to + 32% from the close on January 14.
If you followed me you will know that my average price was $ 70.71 and at the opening on 1/18, I sold the entire position, taking home the profit, with a gain of 22.64%.
Another good trade to start 2022, which saw me in drawdown for most of the trade.
Obviously, I'm not saying that I expected this, because my trading has always been transparent and visible to everyone, I am one of the very few who says things before doing them and if the reasons why I invested in Activision are well explained in previous posts, but clearly, I was expecting a reversal, even a violent one, but not a 32% gap up. This acquisition, which among other things adds yet another arrow to Microsoft's bow, was not expected and, as far as I'm concerned, I didn't even have any rumors.
A huge trade, therefore, it would have been even more profitable if the price had touched $ 55, where I would have mediated the price further.
Happy trading,
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
How deep can hell be? (ATVI) Updates
The hard times continue for the company that created Diablo (which knows about hell), which has lost 45% from the highs of February 2021.
We are not that far from the bottom hit during the first wave of covid in 2020.
We all know the reasons: the investigation into the sexual harassment of an employee. It is not my interest, to go into the merits, I simply report the facts in relation to trading.
Nothing at an economic level, where the company has always been thriving and one of the most profitable, considering both the turnover from PC, console, and mobile gaming. In particular the mobile sector, many are not aware of, Activision-Blizzard is on the podium second only to Apple.
From a fundamental point of view, therefore, this important collapse is attributable only to the internal questio n, which, let's be clear, was handled very badly by the company and which above all does not seem to have taken important positions on the fact.
This behavior caused the price to fall below our September purchase price and to mediate, buying again in November at the price of $ 61.7 per share.
This brought the average purchase price to $ 70.71
Right now we are on the POC of the last 2 years, which makes ATVI even more attractive, even if to make a third entry I will wait for $ 55, which literally represents the last volume node of the value area of the last 2 years.
To enter we are already on a very important level, we are clearly talking about an undervalued company, which is at this level for certainly important issues, but which have nothing to do with its economic performance.
Obviously, the question must be resolved immediately, especially considering the relationship with investors.
Reasonably, it is clearer to say that the market has already heavily discounted the problem.
I close by saying that 2022 should be an important year, for the release of Diablo 4, Blizzard's historic franchise, as well as Overwatch 2.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.