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LE1!

LIVE CATTLE - Finding a bottomIn the chart above I've plotted average cattle prices since February of 1980. I found that a 30 year view is typically enough to see the big picture in a market. Prices closed today (9/6/16) nearly exactly at par, which has been a major level since 2003. From its all time low (53.xx in July 1985) to its peak (170.xx on Nov 2014), the .618% retracement sits at about $98 per cwt. Since Feb 1980 price has never declined over 30% (avg major peak to major trough was about 28%). Since Q4 of 2014 price has declined 40%, so by all standards this is considered a somewhat rare decline in price. Though, given how high prices have gone, it is far from out of the ordinary to see a decline of this magnitude or greater. This recent price action is reminiscent of oil in January/February. My thought is we'll see a bottom somewhere between 96 - 88. 88 seems more likely. I am going long with low leverage at 96 if price action signals a long on the short term chart. I am going long at 89 with an automatic buy order regardless of the short term price action. Oil is the chart above - Live cattle is the chart below Source for data: www.investing.com
CME:LE1!Long
by Lanmar
Hogs: Dealing with a logarithmic vs. arithmetic discrepancy My long trade is the assumption that the breakdown on the log chart is a false breakout. I trade based on LOG almost entirely, but there is a mixed bag of data here that leads me to believe it is worth considering both metrics (log vs arithmetic). Many traders dislike trend lines - this is just one of those reasons among many. The way I deal with these situations is to analyze them horizontally and see which levels are violated from there. From the horizontal perspective price is at an attractive symmetrical level as shown in purple. I am a cautious buyer here. My stop is relatively wide because $5.4 per pound ($54 per 100 weight) would still register as a buy.
CME:HE1!
by Lanmar