UBER - ATH likely in 2024
I must admit despite all the TA I have tried with this name, profit has eluded me because most upward action has bee around ER. I have tried not hold big positions into ER, but this name has proved me wrong last three times.
Bounced off of 60 VMA nicely an caught fire. another test of 45 or flag above would set this up nicely for 60.
despite sluggish volume, this has help up really well. Suggests institutional ownership is high and when market conditions improve, this is likely to blast off.
No position
Leaders
General Market – True Market Leaders?Here are the dates when the next wave of potential True Market Leaders (TMLs) have broken out.
We are seeing mixed action.
🟨 Yellow notes shows the stocks that are still above their pivot point
🟥 Red shows those who have been more volatile and have breached the pivot point
What to look for during a Bear Market Correction?JS-Masterclass #4: What to look for during a Bear Market Correction?
Many undisciplined traders have suffered significant losses during the current bear market correction. Professional and disciplined traders are staying on the sidelines and preserve their hard-earned capital while waiting for better times.
The good news is that every bear market will eventually turn into a bull market and new opportunities will show up when only very few people expect it. Leading stocks emerge from bull markets, sometimes long before the major indices reach their lows and start a new uptrend. History shows that more than 96 % of superperformance stocks emerge from bear markets or general market corrections.
Most stock market experts are aligned that the current bear market will end soon, some say it bottomed already.
So what to do now?
Continue to do your homework while the market is down and you will be prepared to make big profits when it turns up.
Stay disciplined and look for the following:
1. Stocks hitting the 52-week high list.
2. Stocks that corrected the least amount during the market’s declining period trading within 25% of a 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better).
3. Stocks that surged in price off the market lows (the largest percentage movers).
4. Stocks that are base-building and consolidating within the context of a long-term uptrend.
5. A proliferation of stocks setting up and emerging through proper buy points out of bases.
6. Accumulation in the major averages at or around the time the leaders start breaking out.
The growth vs value ratios are making higher lowsAt the above pane is the SP:SPX making new lows; I really thoght that the low was already made.
Then in red in Small Cap Growth vs Small Cap Value (IWO/IWN), in green is the S&P Growth vs S&P Value (SPYG/SPYV) and in yellow is the Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples (XLY/XLP).
There are a lot more but these are the most common ratios to evaluate what kind of stocks are leading. And if you want a bull market, then growth should lead right?
Well, we are seeing the first steps to it. Look how all peaked before the S&P 500 and now are making higher lows. But remeber, first steps.
Look for stocks that are making 6mo highs and 12mo highs. These should be the ones to lead the next cycle.
NYSE:DV , NASDAQ:DGII & NASDAQ:AEHR are in the top of my watchlist.
What are yours?
Stocks To Watch (Relative Strength Edition)The Market may have some more room to the downside with the longer term uptrend still intact, I look at some intermarket analysis to evaluate the situation. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 8 total stocks on this list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
Lemonade is the future of insuranceLMND is my favourite investment stock lately, as it has a lot of potential, it's going to disrupt the insurance market with it's totally new and innovative strategy and operation method. This is the fintech in banking (like Revolut or N26) or a Tesla in cars or the smartphone itself in communication! Seriously, I'm not hyping the stock, do some research and as you understand, you'll get convinced pretty quick. So definitely disruptive and much much more efficient and way smarter than the whole insurance industry in and out. Read about it and you'll see. It's not a trading setup, but a long term investment idea (3-5 years for me at least) but would be better for 10+ years. Might take time to spread worldwide but investors and the whales too might discover it soon and you'll find yourself in the "I'm late again" situation as it was with Tesla and NIO with lots and lots of investors. So, Lemonade is going to be huge.
I have an entry point of $47 but I could accumulate 2 times so far @ $86, @ $118 and @$107 just now at this current pull back again, but if you are thinking long term, you can buy any time when it's a red day or whenever you have spare money, don't even bother with technicals, as I said, it's a long term investment and it can brake out abruptly.
My experience tells me that even though I know how to do technical analysis, the fundamental analysis is much much more important in investing (and I'm not talking about day trading here). Because if I didn't do any trades during this year, but only investments according to my original ideas I would have much more profit by now, even after a year, such short period of time (as of today my performance for this past exactly 12 months is +209% and I'm in a correction just now). So no, I'm complaining, because I'm not, but just saying if I didn't work at all, but only invest according to my ideas, I would have about 3x more profit just now (better not count). Oh and I never got lucky so far. Not even once during these several hundreds of trades. Quite the opposite, whenever I did something out of sentiment or by a gut feeling, I lost on it. Can you imagine? So, technical analysis pays out but investing pays more if you know the right time for the right stock. Not easy, so I give you some insight below if interested.
Here's below my little summary so you get the picture about my thinking. Also I show all my ideas with numbers so you see how I did and would invest in such environment:
Probably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it.
Introduction and the mindset:
8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks.
My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer):
In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also I didn’t know any known influencer back then.
My recent/actual ideas and how to do it:
I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future.
Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments):
TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
ZScaler inside uptrend channel (Watching!)ZS has been behaving well inside the uptrend channel drawn. When we touch the upper part of the channel, we see a pullback to the lower segment line.
RSI analysis suggests, we have difficulty going above the 70 level, however, the chart remains bullish whenever the RSI has been over the 43 RSI. A break below 40 in the RSI would be short-term bearish. -----> conditional Bull
OBV has been trending upwards since the earnings gap-up we had May 29th. -----> Bull
50sma is lining up with the lower channel line, which could work as a support, and a buy entry with low risk.
Infrastructure - the one thing both sides agree onFundamental Analysis
Democrats and Republicans have various diverging opinions that affect sectors and industries across.
The one aspect they do agree on, is they need more infrastructure spending .
Technical analysis
Breakout to all time highs.
RSI @67
OBV supportive of uptrend.
Transports: Consolidating during market downturnTechnical
20sma is being supportive, but it is recommended to keep your stops somewhat below the average.
A close below $190 would be a bearish warning.
The broad market has been taking a downturn over the past week. The Transportation industry has been consolidating, showing relative strength over the rest of the market.
Fundamental
While the white house cannot get it together to pass the fiscal stimulus, transportation could be a gainer as it is likely they will spend on Infrastructure.
AutoDesk ending downtrend?Autodesk is breaking the downtrend from late February.
Closing above $190 would put us above horizontal resistance, and deny the double-top formation.
When using fibonacci retracement lines, we see strong support at the 50%, and we are now rallying of the 61.8%.
Important to mention they come out with earnings Wednesday 27th after-market.
Buying a week pre-earnings has been a strategy working well for me so far.
Watching closely.
AMD - Reverse head and shoulders formationAMD is forming a reverse head and shoulders. If we can break the ATH resistance on good volume, AMD will probably keep rallying.
RSI has been trending higher, but it is not as high as it was in its past peak. (short-term bear).
OBV has been trending higher, and its current value is slightly higher than its previous peak (short-term bull).
Keeping on a watchlist.
A stock that is finding new trading ground.SMAR is a hypergrowth name that I am betting will be a winner for the rest of 2019 & beyond. This stock has just appeared on many peoples radar and I am sure its following will increase. We have a real grower in a hot sector (SAAS). Barring an overall repricing of assets I think this one provides plenty of alpha. Will be watching this one closely & trying to master how she trades.