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Leading

Strong DXY Leads to Weak S&P EarningsEducational chart: The massive 20% rally in the US Dollar into the fall of 2022 coincided with the bear market in stocks and fears of recession as the Fed was raising rates to choke off the inflation stoked from aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion post-Covid lockdowns. What is important to learn is how the US Dollar movements can drive earnings estimates so you are prepared for the next time when the media is blasting bearish commentary on "falling earnings estimates". The extreme bearish sentiment in the US last year as a result of weakening earnings estimates was a sign to look at the impact of the US Dollar on those estimates. 40% of sales in the S&P500 Index are from international sources and that means that earnings from abroad will translate back into fewer US Dollars. It's an important factor to understand when looking at the broad landscape for your investing strategy. What is the Dollar telling us now? Neutral impact now from year ago levels means that the Dollar wont impact the earnings of the S&P500. Going forward over the next 6 months, the falling TVC:DXY of 10% will be a boost to earnings and may explain some of the 10% market rebound from the low last October.
TVC:DXY
by timwest
7
ISM New Orders vs Consumer SentimentISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy." Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. Something we can keep an eye on and something that will factor in this weeks MACRO MONDAY Edition which i will post immediately after this PUKA
ECONOMICS:USMNO
by PukaCharts
FUNCHARTS - Gold can be a leading Indicator for South32 (S32)Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. South32 (S32) on the ASX has been led by Gold (GLD) by 139 days through history. Go ahead and check out the chart, go back in time and you’ll see that there has been a reasonable correlation between movements in Gold followed by movements in South32. It hasn’t always been 139 days but this has been the highest correlation at 29% of all lag times, if that makes sense. The current intermarket forecast from Gold suggests a rally through to the 25th July, let’s see. Incidentally Coffee has provided an inverse correlation, I’ll show you that one another time. Happy Trading
ASX:S32
by andrew.gibbs777
NIFTY-ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISNifty-50 is showing the characteristics of a leading diagonal. I have mentioned all the rules regarding the leading diagonal and plotted them at the relevant level. Please go through the chart and try to understand which has been made very easy for you. Nifty may bounce back from the current level or from 15300 or from 14800. The level projected are purely based on Fibonacci ratios. The leading diagonal gives a good retracement and it can retrace up to 17300-350 after wave 5 of 1 will complete downside. Regards.
NSE:NIFTY
by imkhushal
1
Leading indicators are BearishVery quickly before the market opens... The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF gave up and gave way -> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is looking for a non-existent bottom -> no flight to safety. just gave way, period. The VIX just broke out and checked in at the support... spiking up soon? The HG1! copper futures stalled at resistance. Overall, Bearish bias on equities
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Auguraltrader
ECT paving the way for DASH to $5600 I love finding leaders and lagers and this seems like a perfect example. Its easy to see the similarities in these charts- they're not exactly the same but wow are they close. The last time I noticed something like this BTC had just hit 20k while ETH was still at $500 (see below). Just like BTC was leading the way then; it looks like ECT might be leading DASH (& others) now. The ball's in your court. There are a few way to tackle this trade; Entry 1: here $125 - $131 Stop 1: tight $124.5 or loose $120 depending on how aggressive you want to be Entry 2: on retest of breakout Stop 2: below the retest pivot Entry 3: on a test of the lower trend line Stop 3: below the pivot at the trend line or on the break and close below trend line Entry 4: on retest of breakout Stop 4: below the retest pivot Target for all of the above at your own discretion. I'm treating this as an entry for a longer term position; so I'm holding it for much higher prices. Trade ideas: BTC leading ETH: Never Trust. Verify. D.Y.O.R . Not Financial Advice, this is my trading journal. Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
BINANCE:DASHUSDLong
by TribeWriter666
26
EDUCATION: Lagging and Leading IndicatorsHello, dear subscribers! Today we will consider a new education series topic - the lagging and leading indicators with example on EMA and Pivot levels Definition: The Lagging indicators based on current and historical market data and are used for describing the events which have alredy occured with the price. Examples: Moving averages, MASD, oscillators and many other popular indicators. Advantages: The lagging indicators are very reliable and predict the price movement correctly Disadvantages: Usually give a signal when it's too late and the most of the desirable price movement has already done. Definition: The leading indicator try to predict the future price movement. Examples: Fibonacci retracement, Pivot levels Advantages: Generate the signals in proper time Disadvantage: Low win rate in comparison with lagging Lagging + Leading Example Leading and lagging indicators eliminate the disadvantages of the each other. The example is 200 EMA + Pivot levels. The long signals generates when the price is above the 200 EMA, which means the uptrend, and when the price faces with the resistance on one of the pivot levels. Thus, the profit is higher than we use only 200 EMA and win rate is higher than sole pivot level trading strategy.
Education
by Skyrexio
ADA, OMG, EOS, 3 Types of charts, Leading, Trending and LaggingThese are the 3 main Types of  correlated  charts I am seeing in the Crypto space. Type 1:  These charts have moved off the low but have not yet broken out. These are lagging the others (i.e Not many people are paying attention = opportunity). e.g EOS Type 2:  These charts have broken out and are consolidating above or near the previous high. These are trending Bullish (look for entries on pullbacks and retests of support) e.g OMG Type 3:  These charts have broken out of the previous highs and are consolidating above all the price action since DEC 2018. These are leading the market (i.e Where the fomo is real) e.g ADA Would you like to see my lists for Type 1,2 & 3 ? Like & Sub... Never Trust. Verify. D.Y.O.R . Not Financial Advice Just an Observation. Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
Long
by TribeWriter666
Using Leading indicators to predict direction.I am new to this platform and don't really know how to post/share charts that are running on my platform. This chart is a simple representation of how a leading indicator can be used to predict a direction for the EUR.USD pair even when it goes against most technical indicators. The overall direction shown here is based on 2 pieces of information. 1) The leading indicator that shows the direction which I tried to show by drawing an arrow. 2) fractals that show the built-up of strength in the ticks that are coming in. My system is showing an increase in fractals, which is why I am assuming that the first deviation while acting as resistance (assuming the fractals keep building up) should break; and a move upwards for the EUR.USD pair will continue. Looking at the deviation on the day chart, it's possible that this may carry all the way up to 1.1069. (while trading it's as simple as keeping an eye on the fractal build-up).
Long
by Ardist
[IWM] Small Caps Leading In Potentially Huge Breakout!Same pattern here that I covered in MSFT, CSCO, and ADBE. All are still consolidating at the breakout level, except for ADBE and IWM. IWM is soaring higher today after finishing a short consolidation period at the breakout level of around $160. I put some Fibonacci lines to show how it bounced strongly off the top of wave 1 around $158.15. Since that low on this morning of 5/16, it's rocketed up past $160 and is hovering around $161 !! Bullish sign for the S&P 500 as well as Nasdaq 100. IWM has shown enough strength through this 4-5 month correction to lead in any major moves and as long as it it can maintain above $160 for a good amount of time, the other indices, as well as the other Triangle Breakout Pattern setups i've charted in Tech stocks, should be gearing up for more upside.
AMEX:IWMLong
by NYFinancials
Eur/AudI posted the weekly diagonal before waiting on price action. That pink line is the pitchfork line. EA looks like it is about ready to come down to at least make a flat. It does have potential to spike up one more time but that price action tells me she's going to come down. This actually a potentially large long term swing possibly working below the 1.5300 level so keep that in mind. Like I said before it has some huge zones above it on weekly so it could take some time to turn but looks like we may get a flat from here.
Short
by thillygoosth
Eur/AudEA broke the trend line of a 5 wave (what I believe to be a leading diagonal which would correct itself to around area of wave 1 high).....This is the weekly chart. The size of those wicks to the left bother me a little bit and euro strength. It is possible that it starts working down from here, it's been going down while the other euros been going up... Anyways, I see a large sell is coming, but doesn't mean we can't get a correction or a huge spike. I see the longer term trend bullish, but this 5 wave pattern has a high probability of correcting itself. remember, they like to break the trend line. All it did was barely break it. If it is to correct this 5 wave and continue up, it seems like the move down may fairly sharp considering the measurements.... Don't have confirmation yet.
by thillygoosth