The 3-way of Economic Nightmares.I recently had a discussion on X, with regard to the Forecasting ability of High Yield Spreads. I was making the claim they do possess Leading Indicator qualities, while a gentleman took the other side of this debate.
To illustrate my views, I've put together a chart of FedFunds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and said High Yield Spreads.
This chart shows the last ~28yr of the above mentioned series, and how they "play" with one another.
A) Shows the period leading into the "DotCom" Bubble. We see High Yield Spreads rise first - Leading the other two data series. In a Coincident fashion, FedFunds then rolls over, while Unemployment shoots higher. A successful "Forecast" by High Yield Spreads of the impending Downturn/Recession. A successful Leading Indicator.
B) Shows the period leading into the "GFC". We once again see High Yield Spreads rise, this time SHARPLY, albeit with much less "lead time" than the previous example. As with example A), FedFunds and Unemployment then begin their inverse (to each other) dance. Once again showing High Yields Spread giving us that Advanced/Leading warning that things were getting fragile in the economy. A successful Leading Indicator - with admittedly less warning time.
C) Shows us an outlier in this analysis, and for good reason. We see our 'significant' rise in High Yield Spreads, but what we do NOT see, is FedFunds and Unemployment doing their typical dance. Unemployment continues to head lower, while FedFunds begin to rise - the OPPOSITE of what they did in the prior 2 examples.
D) Shows the period surrounding Covid. Once again High Yield Spreads shoot up in a dramatic fashion, warning bells should be going off in markets. Much like 2 of the previous 3 examples, FedFunds had also been in a "hiking" cycle. And right on cue, Unemployment skyrockets; completing our 3-way from Hell.
We now find ourself in E). In the Oval we see our significant rise in High Yield Spreads, but this is accompanied by rising FedFunds, so we do not have our "danger" signal. Unemployment also remains low. We now however see High Yield Spreads beginning to turn up, with talks of Rate Cuts to FedFunds, as well as Unemployment rising.
History may not repeat, but it does often rhyme. Are we starting to see warning signs flashing? Only time will tell, but as stated in previous posts... It's definitely not a time to be leveraged, or riding on large gains you haven't secured.
TLDR; High Yield Spreads followed by Fallings FedFunds and Rising Unemployment = Market/Economic Stroke.
As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management. And thank you for your time.
Leadingindicator
RECESSION ALERT | Total Vehicle Sales Data Print DelayedWith last months revision of 818,000 jobs, it is probably safe to conclude that other data points have also been incorrectly reported (manipulated for political purposes).
Total Vehicle Sales for the month of August 2024 were supposed to be published today. As of 8:45 PM EST, the data STILL has not been released.. HUH??
Total vehicle sales are a leading economic indicator. I’m guessing the numbers are bad.. really bad.
In Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, vehicle sales collapsed in August (in August 2024).
The absence of today's scheduled print is a choice. Someone decided that Total Vehicle Sales (for the month of August 2024) would not be released as scheduled.
In addition to illustrating the obvious failures of the current US political administration, this is also a strong indicator that Tesla ( the entire green new scam ) is on the verge of bankruptcy. I will explain this in more detail later.
ISM New Orders vs Consumer SentimentISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index
ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments.
According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions".
According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy."
Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. Something we can keep an eye on and something that will factor in this weeks MACRO MONDAY Edition which i will post immediately after this
PUKA
Correlation – Crude Oil & CPIStudies indicated Crude Oil is the best indicator to track the current inflation.
It is also a leading indicator to inflation numbers? If that is true, we will have to track the crude oil prices very closely.
Content:
i. The most inline commodity with CPI
ii. Can the Crude Oil track CPI?
iii. Direction of Crude Oil
Crude Oil Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.01 = $10
0.10 = $100
1.00 = $1,000
10.00 = $10,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TWE.ASX - FUNCHARTS - Does Corn Really Lead Treasury Wines?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome.
The blue line in the graph above is corn (futures) projected forward, now why on earth would corn lead the Treasury Wines share price? While I let you ponder the answer to that the correlation between a projected forward corn price and TWE has been relatively high through history at approximately 30%, simply scroll back through the chart and you can see for yourself that corn has a pretty good track record of leading TWE.
Now that we have a projection of sorts the next step would be to conjure up a trade based on this intermarket relationship (if it truly does indeed exist).
Let me draw your attention to the system on screen, it is a reverse of the Supertrend STRATEGY (Inputs: ATR Length, 3, Factor 1.5) where it buys the short term dips and sells the short term rallies. An analysis of performance shows that TWE is a very choppy stock. To see performance scroll down to the bottom of the chart and make sure Supertrend STRATEGY is showing. Now the next trick is to view the Performance Summary (not overview) where is breaks down the performance of long trades v short trades.
An analysis of long trades shows buying dips was highly profitable with a profit factor above 2 and a high percentage of winning trades. With this evidence the way I would trade TWE is to use Corn, or seasonal analysis or similar to obtain a bullish bias and then look to buy into a pull back on TWE. Once set I would then look to sell the position once the stock reached an overbought level. Stop Losses are a little difficult to set on a mean reversion strategy as theoretically the bigger the pull back the better the opportunity but I would suggest a fairly wide stop level of around 10-15% of the stock price as an emergency stop in case the trades really goes wrong.
The question you're obviously asking is should I get long now? In my opinion awaiting a pull back is probably the best strategy, you could use a stochastic or RSI indicator (or any oscillator) for that matter and look to enter during oversold zones and close out during an overbought period.
Russell 2000 Futures Next Leg Down -10%Russell 2k $RTY1! broke below the 200 EMA on weekly and failed to regain 1800 as support.
As the canary in the coal mine, the Russell 2000 comprises of the 2000 smallest stocks of the Russell 3000 (broad capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market) and provides a solid bellwether for forward facing trends.
Next move is a 10% markdown from 1700 to 1550. From there we will likely see a failure to regain 1600. With Q2 earnings coming and early signs of margin compression in the face of rampant inflation ($NKE earnings revealing some weakness), expecting to see 20 EMA crash below the 200 EMA with the 50 EMA following closely behind.
On balance volume reflecting a downtrend that really gained momentum in late March / early April with no sign of reversing in the near-term.
Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling.
The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes!
The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure.
Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)
Copper Prices giving a heads up... Earlier, I posted about the S&P500 defying gravity.
Another indication to support that view is here... COPPER.
It is well known for copper futures to lead/follow (takes turns) the equity markets. The reasons behind this phenomena is very fundamental, copper is used in production of many things, and in an economic upcycle, copper is one of the first metals required, in many forms from wires, to electronic parts.
So, superimposed is the SPX on /HG copper futures. You can see the love/hate correlation. It is just astounding.
Copper technicals are similar to that of 9 April 2020, as it bounces off the Gann fan support, breaks out over the trend line resistance... it appears bullish, even suggesting that it is looking for the last high.
So what might this mean for the S&P500?
Early Warning SystemI've scripted my own early warning indicator. This system has provided very accurate warning signals the last few years as to where potential tops were forming. There are several occasions where it detected changes weeks or even months ahead of trend changes. Occasionally, it's a little too early at providing these signals. I can't reveal all my secrets but I was able to use data provided in TradingView that measures true investor sentiment and implied volatility. It also provides decent confirmational bullish/long signals, but it really depends on the type of market that we're in. Pre-2017, bearish signals were flattened and mostly ignored as the market rocketed higher.. I'll continue tracking this going forward and at least use it to assist my other forecasts - just another tool in my toolbox.
My current view of the market is not good. If you follow my updates, you'll know that I've been warning people about this drop and zone of volatility. Check out my other updates on the markets as well as the vix. I think it's likely to continue the next couple of months. However, take a look at the indicator and how the avg. is slanting upwards (green circle). This could be signaling a bounce in the market...but will it be like Feb of this year where we made a higher high in the market before the death drop? I have some long exposure as a strangle for such an event, but have been net short since end of August. I don't need to explain to you how the market is currently retarded in light of the fundamental picture. I'm not calling for a great depression-like melt-down yet.. We could see a lot of volatility the next few months but it may be just another opportunity to go long the market. I'll be here to provide all of the most accurate data I can for you.
Ethereum ETH VS Bitcoin BTC. Correlated. What comes next? I find this side by side comparison interesting because it shows the correlation in this crypto market. How can recognising these patterns help us? Well if you compare correlated assets and one (or many) move before others they could be considered leading indicators , so they might be showing you a glimpse at the future. See ADA & VET... Are they showing us what's to come?
like and sub...
ADA VS ONT:
Never Trust. Verify.
DYOR . Not Financial Advice Just an Observation.
Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.