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Leadingindicators

Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling. The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes! The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure. Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)
AMEX:JNKShort
by Auguraltrader
10 Yr T-note $TNX Break-out$TNX has broken out of its long-standing 35 year descending channel, first time breaking out above 50 EMA and pushinf towards 100 EMA since 1994. The descending channel includes both the dot.com and housing bubbles without breaking above the 50 EMA. Given add'l rate hikes on the table and bloated CB balance sheets, extreme supply of money in the markets, overnight reverse repo in the trillions... there's an incredibly long way to go walking back unfettered money printing, unless the Fed gives up and lets inflation run unabated. Either way, TNX isn't done climbing. Expecting a bear market rally to bring it back for a 50 EMA retest is reasonable and normal; however, the broader macroenvironment is unhealthy and there's more room for these yields to run this year.
TVC:TNXLong
by R0MM3LL
Bullish BTC 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 90% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 3.82% based on the last 4267 Daily candles. Having said that, lets take a look at the support and resistence points from this current position BOT = 41000 TOP = 38000 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. From volume point, we can see that the point of concentration is around 39000-39500. From technical analysis point, we can see that yesterday on 15min, we had a long entry alert around 38200 At the same time, on 30 min it happened the same around 38700 Lastly on 1h we had as well an entry around 39000. So overall there is a very confidence that we are going to have a small bull moment period(days, weeks? )
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by exlux
Leading Indicators Reversal Still BearishThe JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF continue down draft-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is still diving -> still not seeing any flight to safety. The VIX just broke out above the trendline -> very Bearish for equities The HG1! copper futures downtrending Overall, rather Bearish bias on equities
TVC:VIX
by Auguraltrader
Leading indicators are BearishVery quickly before the market opens... The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF gave up and gave way -> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is looking for a non-existent bottom -> no flight to safety. just gave way, period. The VIX just broke out and checked in at the support... spiking up soon? The HG1! copper futures stalled at resistance. Overall, Bearish bias on equities
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Auguraltrader
LEADING INDICATOR: YIELD CURVE INVERSION The Yield Curve can serve as a leading indicator of predicting the future stock markets' direction. The Yield Curve is a graph showing how the yields on government bonds change till the bonds' maturity. Government Bonds are debt obligations issued by a national government. The government (issuer) is obliged to repay the principal (amount borrowed) at the maturity date + interest ( coupon ) at fixed times to the bondholder. The difference between stocks and bonds is: The stockholder has an equity stake in a company (i.e. they are owners), while the bondholder has a creditor stake in the state (i.e. they are lenders). The yield yurve is a functional display: The horizontal x-axis presents the time till maturity, while the vertical y-axis depicts the annualized percentage yield to maturity. The basic idea is: The longer the time the investor borrows his money to the government, the higher his returns shall be. At times of economic growth, the yield curve is upwardly sloped (i.e. rising) , because there are no hints that the government could not repay the investor as agreed. At times of economic recession, the yield curve is inverted (i.e. falling), as fears of the governments inability of repaying the investor as agreed arise. A. Set varoious bond rates in Tradingview: 1. Click at the Plus Symbol at the top left 2. Add US30Y 3. Add US20Y (in same pane) 4. do that till US03M 5. Change the color of the line graphs from US30Y light to US03M dark. Therefore you will get a nice color gradient whenever the yiel curve is healthy. (The first pane shows the 30yr, 20yr, 10yr, 7yr, 5yr, 3yr, 2yr and 3M yield curves of the US FED) B. Set long term, mid term and short term yield differences in Tradingview: 1. Add a new pane each with e.g. the symbol US30Y-US02Y. If these curves fall, it recession might come. If one of these curves falls below zero, i.e. the interest rate is 0 and smart money can not make money with bonds. Whenever we have had a recession, many different yield curves were inverted. The yield inversion is indicated when the short term yield periods rises sharply to the percentage of the long term yield, while the long term yield does not increase to keep its initial space to the lower yields. Government Bonds and Stocks tend to be in an anticyclical relation. Whenever stocks rally, bonds are down and vice versa. Big Money avoids stocks if they can get risk free gains with bonds. Bear in mind that the bond market is way more liquid and therefore a great place for Institutions to make their billions. The Smart Money outflow of the stock market can be seen the clearest at high growth stocks, as these were the best promising to make gains at low interest rate times.
TVC:US10YEducation
by ColdAvenue
3
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy... The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely. The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet. The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45. The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices. Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first. Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading indicators reversed a reversalThe reversal observed previously appears to be washed out... JNK broke down previously as expected, and exceeded target. No rebound as previously expected, but instead a further push downwards followed. MACD in bear territory. IWM , DJT and VALUG all swent further down after breaking the support that bounced off earlier. MACD crossed and deep in bear territory. Turned out suspicion was well anticipated. TIPS failed a support, went back to test but pushed further down. Bearish. TLT is still not bullish, having pushed down further. Odd. VIX spiked very hard to get a higher high, but did not close at a higher high. Indicative of bearish markets but not clear as yet. /HG Copper futures are still held in a tight range and a breakout was immediately pulled back into range. MACD is in bullish territory.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce... JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound. MACD still in bear territory. IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus. TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now. TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets. VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail. /HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish. Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
AMEX:JNK
by Auguraltrader
1
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The DJT is also similar. The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias. The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed. All the above have MACD technically bearish bias. The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual. The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so. I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend. I hope we get some committed trend soon! Stay safe!
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern. Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap. TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish. TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu. VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps? ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come. So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators are still BURNTQuick update from two weeks ago... Watching the White/Red lines JNK failed the reversal attempt to break above resistance; DJT closed just below support; Russell2000 closed last week at support; Value Line has not yet broken down; TIPS reaching support, may break but not yet; TLT just above the breakout support; VIX already gapped up pre-opening; and S&P futures ES1! following through downwards rather significantly pre-market open. Most MACD are aligned. Indicative downside bias...
AMEX:IWM
by Auguraltrader
1
Leading Indicators are BURNTAs forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt. JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness. IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness. The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a month. Overwhelmed by the "shock" of a new variant, perhaps it is time. IMHO, Omicron is a precursor... it should be mild, but its existence is indicative of the next wave. So, not to be ignored, and especially not to be forgotten. This is like Nature's forewarning of 2022. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
Money Flow Index MFI vs RSI Relative Strength Index (ETHEREUM)The MFI compares it with several different evaluations of money flows with volume in and out of the asset. Based on the theory that volume precedes price, the MFI acts as a more ambitious leading indicator than the RSI. As you can see by only using the example above, the MFI would have predicted substantial % profits for the wise trader. It was able to spot divergences with enough time to enter into a trade for significant wins. I highlighted the areas where there was no such luck spotting divergence with the RSI. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a modified RSI indicator with an additional volume component. Put simply, think of the MFI as RSI that accounts for volume divergences. Note: training yourself to rely solely on price-action based strategies (universal support and resistant, candles etc.) will make you more successful in the long run. If you designed your indicator-based strategy to work in a trending market, it’s going to fail when markets begin to consolidate. But once again, the price action trader isn’t phased. It doesn’t matter if the market is trending or range bound, the psychological support and resistance levels will always tell the real story.
BYBIT:ETHUSD.P
by EsotericTrading
4
SPX & S&P 600 & RUSSEL 2000,which is a leading indicator "2.0"Indexes "Band of Brothers Edition 2.0 " Decoding the relation!!! (No copyrights here feel free to redistribute and spread the knowledge) In a nutshell, divergences between small caps and SP500 index has a kind of leading volatility relation " Heads up" kind of a signal !!! *** When you see minus " -.59 / -.62 " Divergence's reading between SPX & SLY You need to be out of the market period. *** When you see minus " -.48/ -.65 " on RUSSELL 2000'S INDEX you need to be out of the market period. *** SPX 600 has 10 signals Vs. 7 for RUSSEL. ( 3 more signals for SP600) ***SPX 600 has 4 lagging signals VS. 6 for RUSSEL 2000. ( 2 less lagging signals) *** SPX 600 has a Median of 36 days Vs. 57 for RUSSEL 2000. ( SP600 better Median) *** ETFs are slightly better than indexes in the sense that they are more "SENSETIVE. -----------------------------------------DATA------------------------------------------------------------------- Lagging Lagging # SINGNALS # SINGNALS MED.RUS Med.SPX russel spx 600 6 4 6 10 57 36.5 62 2 Percentage SPX'S DAYS FOR A PULLBACK RUSSELL 2000 SPX'S DAYS FOR A PULLBACK S&P SMALL CAP 600 61 36 10% Laggeing by 3 days 2 Days heads up 36 13 35% NO SIGNAL !!! 36 days before Covid 19 57 91 20% Double signals 62 days & 8 days 13 days 28 37 12% 61 days Triple signals: 91 days & 81 days & 38 days 48 35 3% Lagging by 1 day NO SIGNAL 91 28 3% Lagging by 9 days Lagging by 8 days 67 3% NO SIGNAL !!! 37 Days 61 5% Lagging by 7 days Lagging by 7 days 91 13% 36 Days 35 days 4%+10% 1 day + 57 days from double pullback NO SIGNAL 2% Lagging 1 day Lagging 1 day 11% 28 days 28 days 21% NO SIGNAL !!! 67 days 6% 48 days 61 days SLY STOPPED HERE 8% 91 days 91 days IJR USED HERE INSTEAD 31% Lagging during a crash 35 day lagging during a crash 35 day During a crsh NO SIGNAL During a crash During a crash
TVC:SPX
by samitrading
2
S&P500 - About time for a proper retracement??Am just looking at my panel of leading indicators, and besides the S&P500 ES1! daily chart looking a bit stalled with MACD turning down, the Russell2000, DJ Transports and Value Geometric Index are already leading down. Key levels to breakdown are in red circles. Some others like the High Yield Bonds and TIPS are still holding; while the Treasury Bonds are being snapped up (Risk Off mode) Volatility is low, waiting for a breakout. Looks like a storm is brewing...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
6
Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms Before the S&P500Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset. Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the S&P just 5 weeks later, and in 2018 BTC bottomed just a few weeks before the S&P. Yet again, this relationship held during the 2020 COVID crash with BTC finding a bottom just two weeks before the S&P. Is the recent top formation in Bitcoin signaling potential weakness in the S&P500 that is yet to come? With breadth deteriorating across major indices, the almighty dollar (DXY) finding support and shaping up for a potential double bottom, and the least amount of bears on the AAII survey since Feb 2018, it's possible that the S&P is in for a deeper pullback, one that is well-deserved after such an incredible run from the COVID crash lows. One thing I'm looking for to see confirmation of a tactical top in the broader stock market is the Financials Sector (XLF). If we can't hold above that former major resistance, then we are likely in for a messy S&P over the summer. Remember, assets can correct in both price and time. We may just be in for some more sideways rather than an outright move down. If the S&P does begin to correct, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin may once again find a constructive bottom a few weeks before the S&P. I'll be on the lookout for all of the above and will keep this post updated. Till then, happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by CalmCapital
Weekly Leading Indicators Part IIIn the second part of my leading indicator set, namely, TIPS, TLT, VIX and USD futures /DX... TIPS is giving an early warning of a sharp dip. TLT has no indication of a build up in bond demand, but in fact has a gap down bond dumping. Do watch this gap closely, as a close of the gap might signal a reversal. VIX is not yes bullish despite a recent episodic spike. This may happen again, otherwise it is trending slightly and slowly lower. /DX appears to be forming a base of sorts, but dropping (bullish for equities) in the near term. Looking out for a higher low formation here... The secodn set of leading indicators is similarly not aligned. No clear signal, barring surprises, for a retrecement/pullback.
AMEX:TIP
by Auguraltrader