Trade with the Trend. Just sharing my own thoughts on this journey to wealth. The more articles I publish, the more trades I enter/exit, the more I hone my investing/trading knowledge and skills.
Happy Trading!
Learning
Keep Your Charts Simple StupidI keep seeing charts that are very complicated. If they work for you and are consistently profitable then great don't change a thing.
If they aren't then go back to the basics. Start top down. Monthly, weekly, daily, 4hr. Key levels and trend lines all you need looking for confluences.
Need more help message me x
BTCUSD Dump 500 + PipsCOINBASE:BTCUSD
If you followed my last idea you'd have sold at price rejection w/ confirmation and also looked for pullback buy zone, leave a like and happy trading.
You might ask why the Neutral outlook? Well because you can get paid both ways following the market trend, sell at price rejection with confirmation and buy on pull back buy zone. Don't be greedy and trail your Stop Loss/Close partial lots to guarantee profit.
Trade responsibly and this idea is for educational purposes not financial advice.
XAUUSD Testing 1902 can we break it?If you checked my previous ideas I have been following this closely and was breakthrough 1889-1890 resistance. Now 1902 is the next target inbound to 1918 zone. Make sure to switch between all time frames for more stronger zones, 1H-4H and Daily, Overall Gold is Bullish.
If the Fundamentals allow it, there wont be any retracement unless the good news: Covid-19 cases decreasing or vaccine, Dollar gains strength. That will cause a bearish breakout and we can test strong support 1883 again or further down.
There will be important fundamentals next week so monitor that closely for an opportunity to catch a decent retracement Opportunity
Meanwhile 1890 has shown decent support the confluence zones with: Fib,support and resistance, candlesticks.
Lets see where gold takes us this next week, 1920 is definitely soon. If there is a retracement or any more bad news as the Feds worldwide continue to Print Money this will continue to boost a bullish move.
The headlines concerning China and USA are important to follow
Gold hunted Bears and Bull along the way. Are we there yet? As I mentioned, a stop hunt and classic pullback scenario occurred. Now we retraced to 38% on the Fibonacci and key levels were tested all the way from 1981 to 1900s. As it stands gold will continue to test resistance at 1941-61, before any further action can be taken. Always wait for confirmation my friends, do not allow FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) to blow your account.
Last correction we had was a long time ago, all indicators were overbought. Classic herd mentality was Buy!!!! this is why it is important to wait for conformation to avoid stop hunt. Be flexible with your market direction as it can change anytime (hedging for example, sell at price rejection with confirmation).
Now lets stick with the plan and trade play by play using confirmation as we cross the zones I noted in the chart.
A combination of Fundamentals/Market Sentiment/ Technical analysis is how I prefer to make my decisions.
There were several fundamentals at play during the pullback, make sure to keep up with them.
Leave a like and follow me as this is a big support and motivation to continue.
Good Luck this week and stay Golden!
dlf ltd.hello!! in my view dlf will retrace a bit till 134 if it will sustain below the trendline for some candles but levels like 143 and 147 can be seen easily if breaks out and sustain since it is also showing the double bottom pattern. #learner #my_view
Gold loves tragedy...are we going to see higher highs? OANDA:XAUUSD
If you haven’t read my previous ideas, please do so it will help understand where we are with gold. As tensions rises between USA and China, gold is getting the necessary bullish boost. I'd appreciate a like and follow as it motivates me to continue to post.
DXY is taking a dive as of now due to COVID-19 and current events as mentioned above. Fundamentals are driving this bullish move by the horns.
Confluence zones are confirming Key level zones as mentioned above. We are a long way from support, so stop hunts are possible.
I will wait for further confirmation before moving up , if you’re following me we have been in this journey since 1890s zone. Safe travels and plan accordingly with fundamentals/technical. My next TP is 1988, slight price rejection on 1981 so lets see where the next candle forms!
berger paintshey!! lets see how this will move my view is that it will gap up a bit till 543 and then 550 but lets see
Potential Buy for USOIL (LOSS)Reason for Entry (R/R) :
Daily-Bullish
4H-Bullish
Confirmations: Break of 4H Resistance and Retest structure forming, 4H Fib rejection of 61.8%, 1H Structure being held @ 50% Fib Level, 15m HH and HL being formed. Buy Stop Set at 41.4 (Twin Trade 1:2, 1:3)
Outcome : SL Hit. Looks like buy entry was too early. Setup should come sometime this week. UCAD making retracement at the moment so when that has completed, will reassess entry.
Feelings going into trade :Very confident in setup getting multi-timeframe confirmation. UCad falling cause of US Dollar. Also Sunny who is more experienced trading Oil taking trade with me as well.
Feelings after trade : Still not a bad trade in my eyes. Only risked 1%. Was up and had the thought occur that UCAD retracement could ruin trade but I was okay with letting it play out.
pvr ltd.hello!! PVR is on the lower side due to the lockdown but the stocks are generally not moving the way they must move so ....... now buy above 1148 and sell below 1137 ..... trade only after confirmation i.e after the candles sustain above or below according to the condition. #my_view
icici bankhello!! today icici bank's result was awesome but as the market is not moving with results as hul also did a breakdown after 7% up result and all others too going opposite to the market so prediction will be a bit difficult as with the result it looks like the opening will be around 385+ or 395 and if breaks the trendline and goes up then 439 can be seen but since everyone's move is opp. to the result so it can also open or breakdown to 365. #my_view let's see what will happen.
marico let's wait for the chart to break the trendline and it will give a breakout on any side. #my_opinion if breaks any side and sustain we can take a trade with a sl of trendline .
marutiMaruti is on the short covering so can go up a bit but let's see it's on a support if it breaks can be seen a breakdown, but if not then chances for upward and can breakout and give 8k. #my_opinion
sbi cardSBI Card is a stock which is in a very good uptrend and if it breaks this Lvl it will just rock. cant give much of targets as it has no previous levels but yeah looks good for long term as well as short-term . will retrace a bit for now to maybe around 768 or 745. a good level for buying. #my_opinion #learner
$NIO prt 2 or 3, idk???HOLY!!!!!
What a day. I bought mad early and I had to wait it out... See why!
Trader's Guide to Credit SpreadsThe strategies and ideas presented in this guide have been designed to provide you with a comprehensive program of learning. The goal is to guide you through the learning experience so you may be an independent, educated, confident and successful trader. There are numerous variations of traditional options strategies and each has a desired outcome. Some are very risky strategies and others require a considerable amount of time to find, execute and manage positions. Spreads are a limited risk strategy.
Spreads
Spreads are simply an option trade that combines two options into one position. The two legs of one spread position could have different expiration dates and/or different strikes.
Spreads can be established as bearish or bullish positions. How the spread is constructed will define whether it is bullish (rising bias) or bearish (declining bias).
Different types of spreads can be used for the same directional bias of the stock. For example, if the stock has a declining bias, a call credit spread or a put debit spread could be opened to take advantage of the same anticipated move down.
In this guide we will be talking about Credit Spreads , which are a limited risk strategy. Learning how to manage risk is as important as learning the details of a strategy.
Credit Spreads
A credit spread is created when an investor simultaneously sells-to-open (STO) one option and buys-to-open (BTO) another option. The premium received for the STO is always greater than the premium paid for the BTO thus creating a net credit to the account.
Example :
STO a call using the 120 strike for a credit of $5.20
BTO a call using the 130 strike for a debit of $3.80
Net credit for the spread is $1.40 = 5.20 credit - 3.80 debit
The ideal construction of a credit spread is to sell-to-open (STO) an out-of-the-money (OTM) strike and buy-to-open (BTO) the strike that is 5 – 10 points further out-of-the-money (OTM) using the same expiration. When opening a call credit spread , further OTM means a higher strike. When opening a put credit spread , further OTM means a lower strike.
Both legs are opened on the same underlying equity and use the same expiration month.
Call credit spreads are opened when there is a declining bias and will be profitable if the stock moves down. This is because a call credit spread is opened for a credit and since the value of a call option decreases as the stock goes down, at some point the spread will be bought-to-close (BTC) for less than it was sold-to-open (STO).
Here is an example:
Stock trading at 500 and has a declining bias.
STO 510 call
BTO 520 call
This spread creates a credit of $4.80
Stock declines to 490 causing the values of the calls to also decline. The position can now be closed for a profit.
BTC 510 call
STC 520 call
The cost to buy back the spread is only $3.80. Since the stock declined in value, the call options are cheaper.
The spread was STO for a credit of $4.80 and BTC for a debit of $3.80 resulting in a $1.00 profit.
Put credit spreads are opened when there is a rising bias and will be profitable if the stock moves higher. This is because a put credit spread is opened for a credit and since the value of a put option decreases as the stock goes up, at some point the spread will be bought-to-close (BTC) for less than it was sold-to-open (STO).
Here is an example:
Stock trading at 520 and has a rising bias.
STO 510 put
BTO 500 put
This spread creates a credit of $3.60
Stock rises to 530 causing the values of the puts to decline. The position can now be closed for a profit.
BTC 510 put
STC 500 put
The cost to buy back the spread is only $1.80. Since the stock went up in value, the put options are cheaper.
The spread was STO for a credit of $3.60 and BTC for a debit of $1.80 resulting in a $1.80 profit.
Time decay is a positive factor in trading credit spreads. Since the position is opened for a credit, money comes into the traders account immediately. As time value decays, combined with a favorable movement of the stock, the value of the position will decrease allowing the trader to buy-to-close (BTC) the position for less than it was originally sold-to-open (STO).
Risk and Reward on Credit Spreads
Reward
The maximum profit that can be earned from a credit spread is equal to the net credit received when the spread was opened. For a credit spread to realize the maximum profit, both legs of the spread would need to expire worthless which means the position would need to be held until expiration and be out-of-the-money at expiration.
It is not advised to hold positions until expiration. Short term movements in the stock plus time value decay provide opportunities to close out positions for a profit of, generally, about 10%. If a position is profitable and the trader decides to hold the position hoping for a bigger profit or in an attempt to carry the position to expiration, there is a good chance that the profit can disappear, and the position could turn into a losing position.
A good way to lose money is to wait for a bigger profit.
Risk
The maximum risk, or potential loss, from a credit spread is the difference between the two strikes minus the net credit.
Example:
STO 120 call for a credit of $5.20
BTO 130 call for a debit of $3.80
Net credit for the spread is $1.40
The difference between the strikes is 10 points. $10 is the max risk less $1.40 credit = risk of $8.60. The maximum profit is equal to the net credit, $1.40.
Losses occur when the short strike (the STO leg) is in-the-money at expiration. This is because the trader has sold to someone else the right to buy the stock at the short leg strike. Since the trader does not actually own the stock, they will need to buy it and sell it at a loss.
A maximum loss will occur when both strikes are in-the-money at expiration.
The breakeven point on a bearish (call) credit spread is the lower strike price plus the net credit. Referring to the example above, if the stock settled at 121.40 at expiration, there would be no loss and no profit.
Example of breakeven point on above credit spread:
Stock trading at 121.40
Buyer exercises the right to buy stock from you at 120.
Since you do not own the stock, you buy it at the market price of 121.40 and sell it at 120. This results in a $1.40 loss
You get to keep the original credit of $1.40. This netted against the $1.40 loss results in breaking even on the position.
The breakeven point on a bullish (put) credit spread is the higher strike price minus the net credit.
Calculating the Return
There are two ways to view the percentage return of profits from a credit spread. One is to divide the profit by the difference between the strikes. If the difference between strikes is 10 points and the trade resulted in a $1.00 profit, that would be a 10% return ($1.00 / 10).
The second approach is to calculate the return based on the amount of capital that was at risk. After all, if the trade lost 100% of the risk, that is the amount the trader would no longer have. So, the profit percent is calculated by dividing the profit by the risk. In the example above, the net risk is $8.60. If the credit spread trade resulted in a $1.00 of profit, the percentage return would be 11.63% ($1.00 / $8.60). This approach shows the importance of managing risk. Lower risk drives higher returns relative to capital at risk.
Opening a new Call Credit Spread
The following steps should be referred to when opening a new call credit spread position:
1. Review the technical indicators on your chart and confirm there is a consensus between multiple indicators pointing to a declining bias.
2. Select an expiration that is two to four weeks out. Two weeks is generally the minimum time to expiration you want to use. Building time into options positions is advised in case it needs to be managed. The sweet spot for opening new positions is three weeks to expiration.
3. STO an out-of-the-money (OTM) call strike.
4. BTO the strike that is 5-10 points further out-of-the-money (OTM). With a call spread, further OTM means a higher strike. Generally, when properly constructed, the credit on a 5 point spread will be in the range of $1.20 - $1.80. A 10 point spread will generally be 2.50 – 3.50. The closer the strikes are to the current price, the higher the credit, while this reduces the overall risk of the position, it also increases the chances of the position moving in-the-money (ITM) which can result in an overall loss.
5. When placing the order, always use a Limit Order . A limit credit order specifies to the market the amount of the credit you will accept. A limit credit order will be filled at the specified limit or higher. Market orders should not be used.
6. With some stocks and indexes, the difference between the bid and ask is quite large. The broker will usually give you a quote called the “Mark”. This is the midpoint between the bid and ask. It is the price you should start with when submitting your limit credit order.
7. Calculate the risk of the position. Difference between the strikes – credit = risk. A position with a credit of $4.50 and 10 points between the short (sold) and long (buy) strikes would have a risk of $5.50.
8. Use the risk number to determine the number of contracts to open. Risk x 100 = the investment required for each contract. With $5.50 of risk and 1 contract, the total investment would be $550. ($5.50 x (1 contract x 100 shares per contract)). The total investment on 4 contracts would be $2,200. ($5.50 x(4 contracts x 100 shares per contract)).
9. Once you know the total investment required per contract, you can decide how many contracts to trade based on the size of your portfolio and personal risk tolerance.
10. After the trade has been opened, place a Good-til-Canceled (GTC) order to close the position. A GTC order will stay active until market conditions are such that the position can be closed for a profit. GTC orders execute automatically and do not require you to be in front of your trading platform to take advantage of the profit opportunity. Place the GTC for a limit debit price based on your desired profit target. One example is to set a GTC for 50% of the credit you received when you opened the position. With a credit of $4.50, a GTC would be placed to buy to close the position at $2.25 allowing a $2.25 profit.
EURCAD Buy and Sell OpportunityEURCAD look to be aligning itself for the new week . Look to be patiently catch the opportunity this week. Comments are welcome . Join me to receive more analysis update. Get in touch if you would be interested in learning my way of trading .
GBPUSD Possible Triple TopGBPUSD is in a range.
Price is currently in a strong uptrend, heading towards the top of the range.
Looking back on the charts, price has strongly rejected the resistance at the top of the range multiple times before, meaning this is a strong level.
We would like to see price reach the resistance and reject with strong bearish momentum in the form of either 4H or 1H bearish engulfing candles, or pinbars.
We are also aware of the up trending strength in this pair currently, and realise price can continue pass this level.
WHAT TOPICS WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COVER?Hi Guys - all my followers and non followers..
I am getting back to releasing weekly episode/episodes of the ' Art of trading Psychology' in the aim of helping traders get in the 'zone' when trading. Mastering trading psychology is by far one of the hardest aspects in trading yet it is also the one that will drive you to you success as a trader if mastered.
I would truly love to cater this podcast to you guys and in order to do so, i need to understand what it is you're struggling with and what you would like to cover i.e
- finding taking profit hard?
- being consistent
- scared to take a trade or uneasy when you're in a trade?
- Losing too much?
Anything you think of, drop it in the comments below or message me!!
USDCAD Go Long Entry Trigger Not Met Yet Of PostingThis trade looks very promising. The market is currently moving in a descending triangle as shown. This means lower lows and lower highs. We are currently approaching the low of the edge of the triangle. Secondly, the 50 Period EMA has been dis-respected therefore we expect it to bounce back from it. Thirdly, the market is moving above the 200 EMA supporting the trend that the market is moving in the uptrend. We are currently looking for an entry point to go long which could include a MACD signal overlap (which is looking very probable and soon) and some sort of bullish candlestick pattern.
