Bitcoin - In your dreams!There will never be another Bitcoin, but there will always be opportunities that can make you as much money as Bitcoin made early adopters. The trick is to be able to spot those opportunities and to take advantage of them, either in this asset class or when something new comes along. You'll like to think that if you bought BTC at $10 you'd be rich by now, the fact is you would have sold once BTC pulled back to $9.90. Why do I say that? Because a lot of you tend to listen to the crowd, when we hit 19k the crowd said to buy now because we'll hit one million soon, you bought and price fell to $3500 and so you panic sold along the way. The crowd says don't buy now because we're going to $600 so you don't buy at $3500 and we hit $14,000 and this manipulation will continue forever. If this is the story of your life now you know why. The good news is that a lot of you are beginning to catch on and are taking steps to make your own choices.
WHAT'S BTC DOING NOW?
On the daily chart, BTC is hanging around the 200MA too much, as expected it dipped under and it jumped back over it right away before closing. We are now back under it with the current candle set to close tonight. We had a buy order at $8500 which hit and one for ETH at $210.00 which was coordinated with BTC's dip, both turned out to be right on the nose. Needless to say, losing the 200MA on the daily time frame is a big deal. This drop immediately after the golden cross seems suspicious at best, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt because we have a global event disrupting everyday life, not to mention that the Dow and other indices have taken a beating this week. Lastly, for those expecting to continue the move up, BTC needs to get to $9250 asap if we are to continue moving up. Hanging around $8600 - $8700 will lead to a tumble.
WHAT'S THE OUTLOOK?
None of us have experienced a pandemic so we are in uncharted territory, but in cases of national emergency, most people just want cash on hand, which will lead to withdrawals and a drop in prices. That being said there are a set number of places that price will have to visit if we keep falling and one of them will be the absolute bottom, our job is to map out that possible scenario. To be clear our trade continues as planned.
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Bitcoin - Shift HappensA few weeks back I made a post about how BTC appears to have made a shift from running downhill to starting a slow uphill jog. Is this slow walk uphill going to hold? So far it has (for two weeks now) but we're about to find out since we are coming up to a decision point very quickly. There is one area of concern that can answer the question, but we'll circle back to that in a bit.
In the smaller time frames, BTC has been on a sideways range. On the 4H chart, BTC has managed to stay around the 61.8% pull-back.
On the 6H chart, BTC is showing weakness since it has lost the 50MA for now and yet to conquer the 20MA, Also, it is about to close candle #3 under the 50MA -- which is not good at all. Price needs to be above $7600, keep this number in mind it is a key number.
Let's bring it in together. The area of concern is the 1W chart, BTC has got to close a few candles above the 50MA very soon or we are going down. Simply put BTC has to close at $7600 this week's candle which is a key number now. Out of all of these things, what do you need to keep an eye on? Keep looking at the 1W chart if BTC closes under the blue line we go down, if BTC closes above the yellow line we'll go up. Need it simpler? BTC needs to close above $7600 by Sunday night.
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NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Down but finding stability
THE OUTLOOK: Beginning to see the end of the downtrend a rally may be coming soon.
Bitcoin - The legendIn this chart you can see that a couple of things happened. #1 Just as I have been saying for a few weeks now, keep an eye on the 12H and the 200MA, once price goes under the 200MA on the 12H BTC will struggle to come back up, moreover, If price can't make it above the 200MA we will go down quite a bit. #2 We've had a trendline violation which it's yet another indication that BTC is weak and does not have any buyers at this point. The first X (from top to bottom) is sitting on very strong support so it may take a while to break through and keep going down.
This is what I will be on the lookout for:
The first X has very strong support, it may stage a rally once price gets there, that rally may lead to a big up move.
The first X has very strong support, if it breaks easily we'll tumble down to the upper 6k's (This is the likely scenario)
The first X has very strong support, it may take a while to break and if so we'll go to the low 8k after a little rally.
There are always leading measures (early signs) that give you a heads up about what is going to happen. In this case, the red downtrend channel line has become insane resistance. BTC can run up to it all it wants but if it does not go over it, it will lead to a big drop as punishment.
If BTC goes over this line we sit up and pay attention, what specifically are we looking for? We are looking for a new "High Low" or a new "High high" at which point I will indicate where to jump in.
Going back to leading measures; On the last post, I told you that if BTC closed more than 3 candles below the 50MA on the 12H it will lead to a down move. Well... here we are, it happened just as I said. Now, today we're about to close our second candle below the trendline, needless to say, that will lead to a further drop.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
So my charts are easier to understand I'm creating a legend, so here we go.
Support trendlines are green
Resistance trendlines are Red
Horizontal support lines are Black the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is Black
Quick Tip for Traders: (Please Read)In the past I've often left trades and forgotten I had them open.
It's ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS IMPORTANT to place a Stop Loss and Take profit, for every trade you place, especially if you Day/intraday/Swing & Position trade. I don't often scalp and if I do I'm usually in and out very quickly in around 10-15 minutes.
Now lets say you place a trade, entry after candle close, from a level of support or resistance, test/re-test, pullback, breakout etc.
Main priority is to establish the risk which I either make tight which is dependent on the trading environment (Trending) or if I'm going to hold the trade for a long time then SL below previous low. Followed by how much profit to take. Let's say the market is likely to increase 200 pips, I personally would make sure my TP is is around 20 pips under.
Then, for joining the trade, I make sure almost every trade is made on either 1 hour chart or 15 minute, because pullbacks are more defined if you're able to establish the trend. I only use the 5 minute chart for re-entry if I've missed an opportunity.
If I entered at 1.20514, I would be in around 60 pips profit. The beginner idiot me would have left the trade and done something else.
It's important to establish if you're in profit, pips are like points that you score in a game. You play tactically and defensively to score as many points as possible, so if you place your SL at say 30 pips in profit, if the market turned on you, you'd close out in profit rather than a loss, in which case you'd now be running a risk free trade.
Obviously, as the pips stack up, naturally you'd increase your SL in profit as well.
So I hope this tip is helpful and improves your trading and limits your losses.
Have a blessed day!
AUD/USD bullish or bearish?Hi, I’m very new to this and still learning so any feedback is accepted.
Do you think this is a potential bullish or bearish pattern?
I personally think it’s going to come back to the support line, (previously a resistance line) and bounce to the resistance at the top of the channel.
Please please comment let me know your ideas or if I’m doing something wrong/correct.
Possible USD/CHF Short position!!SMP TRADING
SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1 week
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Market will meet resistance in zone @1.0095 - 1.018 and fall to the @ 1.00. In order to enter, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure
B – Beliefs
Market move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.00
FX:CADJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Sign up for mentoring
Stop Loss @ Sign up for mentoring
Target 1 @ 1.00
Target 2 @ 0.
Risk/Reward @ 5.1
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BTC Realtime Analyse #3Hello all my dear friend
Thanks god and Trading View that helped me to find many friends from all around the world in last 2 month and thanks all of you for your kind messages and comments,many of you really helped me to found some signs and patterns better in last analyses.How soon we arrived here,so let's start BTC RealTime #3.
Have a great information for you,hope i think right about this.
Last week as you remember we break that huge triangle and reach our downward channel bottom that started from 10k,so many days i was so confused about that beak out, i expected more fall after break out of that triangle until i discovered maybe that wasn't a TRIANGLE at all.Maybe this is a Descending Triangle.if that is correct then all things come logical.we can continue this wedge to our long term yellow channel(from 2015) bottom then bounce up the wedge and ... .
So let's take a look to this wedge.
First this is not a single wedge,we have 2 wedge here,first one from $20k and second one from $12.8k in Feb.so i attach them here :
First one:
And then second one:
now take a look at both of them to find out exactly how they finish this bear market together:
What here is matter that all of these are just a possibility and with this weakness that we saw in last days it's have lot chance to move us much lower and this idea failed or you need to understand this fact that maybe sooner we break first wedge and continue market by second wedge.If it happen then we see another Great DEC,soon.
So it's enough long term expectation,forget it now and let's back to our BTC RealTime and short term analyse.
As i said in my last BTC RealTime,after a sharp fall in our downward channel(can't say it parallel channel) from 10k we had a little bounce that was a weak one,but by that bounce we made a symmetrical triangle.I explained it last day but i say again.
This kind of triangles are usually continuation pattern but we had situations that this triangles made a reversal and changed trend but can't count on it.Beside,this kind of formations usually take few month to complete and are long term formations.
On the other side we have lot mix signs in MACD and RSI.in MACD you can see bearish reversal sign in 4HR but in RSI you can find signs that show regular bearish div and little hidden bullish div ,together.yeah all of those make me confused and i try to monitor more rather that talk about them.But what is important and clear is lack of Volume on both side that caused all market uncertainly and all uncertainly in market caused this low vol situation.Last day we even had a Perfect H&S but it failed and we hold our support yet.but for sure if we don't see enough money in market we will drop again to last support.All of these caused to i think more about this triangle but as a Pennant that will push us lower eventually.but if BTC want to hold value of that LONG TERM Wedge i mentioned in first of this TA,need to avoid of sharp falling bellow 5900.
I made a TELEGRAM channel after your many requests about it,finally.but what you need to know is that i am little busy and i will publish TAs there just after channel reach to 100 follower,you can join it from this link ,below:
t.me/peymana71
I will update this like always as soon as i find new sign.I want to thank all of you again for your supports and togetherness.Please leave a Like and Comment for me,if you like my work and idea.
Best Regards
Peyman A
USDJPY Short SetupI think the price will go down. In higher TF i can see a channel which is going downside. Maybe the recover of the past uptrend, which price will continue in future maybe? Nevermind. On the 4H i can see a double top after an uptrend. I think thats a reversal pattern and im looking for an downtrend.
I'm learing swing trading. I have no worth mentioning experience. I'm trying to get a view of the market, which i can correct in the future.
My very first trend line.Pascal appears to be breaking out with 6 touches on the trend line including the wick at 0.00008019.
Can anyone suggest how to analyse from this how long the bullish trend can continue?
EUR USD WILL She keep going higher is the question Good evening everyone
well the Euro Usd has had a good rally up and at the time hit a couple key levels: one its hit the median line on my weekly pitchfork so a reaction of some nature will take place that's given, secondly its hit my target for going down, this market I still see in play to the long side and eventually tp2 and higher could be hit if the market keeps breaking the higher levels that the euro has been facing.
Kris
www.mymentortv.com