Learn Best Price Action Patterns by Accuracy
Last year, I shared more than 1300 free signals and forecasts for Gold, Forex, Commodities and Indexes.
In my predictions, quite often I relied on classic price action patterns.
In this article, I will reveal the win rate of each pattern, the most accurate and the least accurate formations of the last year.
Please, note that all the predictions and forecasts that I shared this year are available on TradingView and you can back test any of the setup that I identified this year by your own. Just choose a relevant tag on my TradingView page.
Also, some forecasts & signals were based on a combination of multiple patterns.
Here is the list of the patterns that I personally trade:
🔘 Double Top or Bottom with Equal Highs
The pattern is considered to be valid when the highs or lows of the pattern are equal.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Double Top or Bottom with Lower High/Higher Low or Cup & Handle
The pattern is considered to be valid when the second top/bottom of the patterns is lower/higher than the first one.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Head & Shoulders and Inverted Head and Shoulders
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Horizontal Range
The pattern is the extension of a classic double top/bottom with at least 3 equal highs/lows.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Bullish/Bearish Flag
The pattern represents a rising/falling parallel channel.
It gives a bullish/bearish signal when its upper/lower boundary is broken.
🔘 Rising/Falling Wedge Pattern
The pattern represents a contracting rising/falling channel.
It gives a bullish/bearish signal when its upper/lower boundary is broken.
🔘 Rising/Falling Expanding Wedge
The pattern represents an expanding rising/falling channel.
It gives a bullish/bearish signal when its upper/lower boundary is broken.
🔘 Descending/Ascending Triangle
The pattern is the extension of a cup & handle pattern with at least 2 lower highs/lows.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
Please, also note that all the patterns that I identified and traded were formed on key horizontal or vertical structures.
Remember that the accuracy of any pattern drops dramatically if it is formed beyond key levels.
I consider the pattern to be a winning one if after a neckline breakout, it managed to reach the closest horizontal or vertical structure, not invalidating the pattern's highs/lows.
For example, if the price violated the high of the cup and handle pattern after its neckline breakout, such a pattern is losing one.
If it reached the closest structure without violation of the high, it is a winning pattern.
🔍 Double Top or Bottom with Equal Highs
I spotted 85 setups featuring these patterns.
Their accuracy is 62%.
🥉 Double Top or Bottom with Lower High/Higher Low or Cup & Handle
96 setups were spotted.
The performance turned out to be a little bit higher than a classic double top/bottom with 65% of the setups hitting the target.
🔍 Head & Shoulders and Inverted Head and Shoulders
58 formations spotted this year.
Average win rate is 64%
🏆 Horizontal Range
The most accurate pattern of this year.
More than 148 patterns were spotted and 74% among them gave accurate signal.
🔍 Bullish/Bearish Flag
38 setups identified this year.
The accuracy of the pattern is 57%
Rising/Falling Wedge
The pattern turned out to be a little bit more accurate.
Among 62 formations, 59% end up being profitable.
👎 Rising/Falling Expanding Wedge
The worst pattern of this year.
I recognized 24 patterns and their accuracy was just 51%.
🥈 Descending/Ascending Triangle
64 patterns were identified.
The win rate of the pattern is 66%.
The most important conclusion that we can make analyzing the performance of these patterns is that they all have an accuracy above 50%. If you properly combine these patterns with some other technical or fundamental tools, the accuracy of the setup will increase dramatically.
Good luck in your trading!
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Learntotrade
9 Essential TIPS For Newbie Traders (Learn from my Mistakes!)
In the today's article, I will reveal trading secrets I wish I knew when I started trading.
1️⃣ Forget about becoming a pro quickly
Most of the traders believe, that you can learn how to trade easily and that it takes a very short period of time in order to master a profitable trading strategy.
The truth is, however, that trading is a long journey.
I spent more than 3 years, trying different strategies and looking for a profitable technique to trade. Once I found that, it took more than a year to polish a trading strategy and to learn how to apply that properly.
Be prepared to spend YEARS before you find a way to trade profitably.
2️⃣ Focus on One Strategy
While you are learning how to trade you will try different techniques, tools and strategies. And the thing is that newbies are trying multiple things simultaneously. The more strategies you try at once, the more setups you have on your chart. The more setups you have on your chart, the more complex and difficult is your trading.
Remember that in this game, your attention is the key.
You should meticulously study each and every trading setup.
For that reason, I highly recommend you to focus on one strategy, one approach, one technique. Test it, try it and look for a new one only when you realize that it doesn't work.
Here is the example how the same price chart can provide absolutely different trading opportunities depending on a trading strategy.
Price action pattern trader would recognize a lot of a patterns, while indicator based trader could spot absolutely different bullish and bearish signals.
Now, try to imagine how hard it would be to follow both strategies simultaneously.
3️⃣ Start with small capital that you can afford to lose
You will lose your first trading deposit and, probably, the second one and potentially the third one as well.
Losses are the only way to learn real trading. While you are on a demo account, you feel like a king, but once you start risking your savings, the perspective completely changes.
For that reason, make sure that you trade with an account that you can afford to lose. The fact of blowing such an account should be unpleasant, but that should not affect your daily life.
4️⃣ Use stop loss
I am doing trading coaching for more than 4 years.
What pisses me off is that the main reason of the substantial losses of my mentees is the absence of stop loss. Why can it be if naturally everyone: from your broker to Instagram trading gurus repeat that day after day.
Set stop loss, know in advance how much you risk per trade, and know the exact level on a price chart where you become wrong.
Imagine what could be your loss, if you shorted USDJPY and hold the trade while the market kept going against you.
5️⃣ Forget about getting rich quick
That is the iconic fallacy. I believe that around 90% of people who come in this game want to get rich quick, want easy money.
And no surprise, when I share a trading setup on TradingView, and it loses I receive dozens of messages that I am a scammer.
People truly believe that professional trading implies 100% win rate and quick and easy money.
The truth is, traders, that trading is a very tough game. And with a good trading strategy, you have just a little statistical edge that will give you the profits that would slightly overcome your losses.
6️⃣ Train your eyes
Professional trading implies pattern recognition: it can be some technical indicators pattern, the price action or candlestick formation, etc.
Your main goal as a trader is to learn to identify these patterns.
Pattern recognition is a hard skill to acquire.
You should spend dozens of hours in front of the screen in order to train your eyes to identify certain patterns.
Here is how many patterns you would spot on GBPUSD chart, paying close attention.
7️⃣ Track and analyze your trades
Study all the trades that you take, especially the losing ones.
Look for mistakes, look for the reasons why a certain setup played out and why a certain one didn't. Journal your trades and make notes.
8️⃣ Don't use technical indicators
Newbies believe that technical indicators should do the work for them.
They are constantly looking for one or a bunch that will accurately show where the market will go.
However, I always say to my mentees that technical indicators make the chart messy and distract.
If you just started trading, focus on a naked chart, learn to analyze the market trend, key levels, classic price action patterns.
Learn to make accurate predictions relying on a price chart alone.
Only then add some technical indicators on your chart.
They won't do the work for you, but will help you to slightly increase the accuracy of a certain setup.
Above is the classic chart of newbie trader.
A lot of indicators and a complete mess
The same chart would look much better without technical indicators.
9️⃣ Find a Mentor
There are hundreds of trading mentors. Find the one with a trading style that you like.
Follow him, learn from his trading experience, listen to his trading recommendations.
9 years ago I found a guy, his name was Jason.
I really liked his free teachings, and they were meaningful to me.
I decided to purchase his premium coaching program.
It was 200$ monthly - a huge amount of money for me at that time.
However, with his knowledge I saved a lot, I learned a lot of profitable techniques and tricks that helped me to become a professional forex trader.
Of course, this list could be much bigger.
The more I think about different subjects in trading, the more important tips come to my mind. However, I believe that the tips above
are essential and I truly wish I knew all that before I started.
I hope that info will help you in your trading journey!
Good luck to you.
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Trading on Holidays: Liquidity and Spreads
When trading forex, it's essential to check spreads, especially during holidays.
Trading forex during holidays can be a bit more challenging due to reduced liquidity in the market.
Liquidity refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold without causing a significant change in price. During holidays, liquidity can be lower as many traders and financial institutions take time off, leading to fewer participants in the market.
Lower liquidity can directly impact the spread, which is the difference between the bid and ask price of a currency pair. In times of reduced liquidity, spreads tend to widen, meaning the difference between the buying and selling price of a currency pair increases. This can lead to higher trading costs for traders, as wider spreads require a larger price movement in the underlying asset before a trade becomes profitable.
It's essential for traders to be aware of these potential spread increases during holidays to avoid unexpected trading costs.
Additionally, wider spreads can also lead to slippage , where a trade is executed at a different price than expected. This can further impact trading results, especially during fast-moving markets with low liquidity.
Therefore, checking spreads during holidays is crucial for forex traders to anticipate potential increases in trading costs and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
On TradingView, you can check the spreads in the top left corner. There you can find bid, ask prices and the spread between them.
It's important to factor in the impact of wider spreads on profitability and risk management when trading during these periods. By staying informed about spread changes during holidays, traders can make more informed decisions and better navigate the challenges of lower liquidity in the forex market.
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Market Manipulations. Bullish Trap (smart money concepts)
In the today's article, we will discuss how smart money manipulate the market with a bullish trap.
In simple words, a bullish trap is a FALSE bullish signal created by big players.
With a bullish trap, the smart money aims to:
1️⃣ Increase demand on an asset, encouraging the market participant to buy it.
2️⃣ Make sellers close their positions in a loss.
When a short position is closed, it is automatically BOUGHT by the market.
Take a look at a key horizontal resistance on AUDCHF.
Many times in the past, the market dropped from that.
For sellers, it is a perfect area to short from.
Bullish violation of the underlined zone make sellers close their position in a loss and attracts buyers.
Then the market suddenly starts falling heavily, revealing the presence of smart money.
Both the sellers and the buyers lose their money because of the manipulation.
There are 2 main reasons why the smart money manipulates the markets in a such a way:
1️⃣ - A big player is seeking to close a huge long position
When a long position is closed, it is automatically SOLD to the market.
In order to sell a huge position, smart money needs a counterpart who will buy their position.
Triggering stop losses of sellers and creating a false demand, smart money sell their position partially to the crowd.
2️⃣ - A big player wants to open a huge short position
But why the smart money can't just close their long position or open short without a manipulation?
A big sell order placed by the institutional trader, closing their long position, can have an impact on the price of the asset. If the sell order is large enough, it can push the price downward as sellers outnumber buyers. Smart money are trying to balance the supply and demand on the market, hiding their presence.
It is quite complicated for the newbies and even for experienced traders to recognize a bullish trap.
One of the efficient ways is to apply multiple time frame analysis and price action.
Remember, that most of the time bullish traps occur on key horizontal or vertical resistances.
After you see a breakout, analyze lower time frames.
Quite often, after a breakout, the market starts ranging.
After a breakout of a key daily resistance, gold started to consolidate within a narrow range on an hourly time frame.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range will indicate a strength of the sellers and a highly probable bullish trap.
Remember, that you can not spot all the traps, and occasionally you will be fooled by smart money. However, with experience, you will learn to recognize common bullish traps.
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Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis: Finding a BalanceLooking to make more holistic investment decisions, but not sure how? Understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis and how to incorporate both is an essential step to accomplishing holistic investing. Today we will explore how finding a balance between these pillars of trading can help you navigate the complex world of investing.
The Importance of Finding a Balance
Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis can be the key to successful investing. By combining the two approaches, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, taking into consideration both the short-term market trends and the long-term value.
When it comes to investing, it's important to have a complete view of the market. Relying solely on technical analysis may leave you susceptible to missing out on crucial information about a company's financial health and growth prospects. Similarly, relying purely on fundamental analysis may cause you to overlook short-term market trends that could impact the stock's price in the near future, potentially leading to poor entries and exits.
A balanced approach allows you to leverage the strengths of both technical and fundamental analysis, providing you with a more complete picture of the investment opportunity at hand. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, finding the sweet spot between technical and fundamental analysis can help maximize your chances of making a profitable investment.
Understanding Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price and volume data to predict future price movements. Traders using this approach often rely on chart patterns, indicators, and trendlines to identify buy and sell signals.
Chart patterns, such as triangles, head and shoulders, and double tops/bottoms, provide insights into potential price reversals or continuations. These patterns are formed as a result of the collective actions of market participants and can signal impending price movements. However, when using price patterns it is critical to understand the statistical odds of success for completion of the pattern. Price patterns can be subjective to the trader's skill and overall directional bias, so traders should combine price patterns with other forms of technical analysis.
Indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, measure the strength of a trend, and spot potential entry or exit points. When indicators are combined to form a robust and complementary system traders gain a wealth of information about the near-term health of an underlying asset. It is critical to note that no indicator system is perfect and will not guarantee you a 100% success rate. However, when paired with proper risk mitigation, psychology, and supporting forms of technical analysis, using indicators can lead to long-term success.
Trendlines are used to analyze the direction and strength of a stock's price movement. Drawing trend lines connecting the highs or lows of a stock's price can help identify support and resistance levels, price channels, and potential trend reversal areas.
Support and resistance zones are price levels on a chart that indicates where trends are likely to pause or reverse. Support is a zone where a downtrend pauses due to demand, while resistance is a zone where an uptrend pauses due to supply. These zones are based on market sentiment and human psychology, shaped by emotions such as fear, greed, and herd instinct. Traders tend to congregate near these zones, strengthening them. Support levels indicate a surplus of buyers, while resistance levels indicate a surplus of sellers. It's important to note that these levels are not exact numbers but rather "zones" that can be tested by the market.
Understanding how these tools work and how to interpret their signals is crucial for technical analysis. It allows traders to make intuitive decisions based on historical price patterns and market dynamics. However, it's important to note that technical analysis has its limitations.
Limitations of Technical Analysis
While technical analysis can provide valuable insights into a stock's potential price movements, it's important to recognize its limitations. Technical analysis is primarily focused on historical data and patterns, which may not always accurately predict future price movements.
Market sentiment, news events, and other external factors can significantly impact a stock's price, often rendering technical analysis less effective. If you don't believe me, just look at the price charts for the last four years. Try to pinpoint major world or domestic events such as the start of the pandemic or the Fed's hawkish shift. Additionally, technical analysis does not take into account the intrinsic value of a company, which is a key consideration in fundamental analysis.
Therefore, relying solely on technical analysis to make investment decisions may leave you vulnerable to market uncertainties and potential pitfalls. This is where fundamental analysis comes into play.
Understanding Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis involves examining a company's financials, industry trends, and market conditions to determine its intrinsic value. Investors who lean towards fundamental analysis believe that a company's true worth is reflected in its financial strength and growth potential.
Key factors considered in fundamental analysis include a company's revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, debt levels, competitive positioning, and management team. By analyzing these factors, investors can assess whether a company is undervalued or overvalued, and make investment decisions accordingly. Most, if not all of this information is readily available on the internet, but it can take some digging to find all the information one would need. There is also a wide range of financial-related indicators readily available on TradingView.
Fundamental analysis also takes into account macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and government policies, which can impact the overall market and the performance of individual stocks.
How to Conduct Fundamental Analysis
Conducting fundamental analysis involves a thorough examination of a company's financial statements, such as its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These statements provide insights into a company's revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, and cash flows.
Analyzing financial ratios, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and debt-to-equity ratio, helps investors assess a company's financial health and profitability. Much of this information is available on TradingView under the financials tab. TradingView has done an excellent job of making a majority of the aforementioned financial data available, right at your fingertips.
Industry analysis is another important aspect of fundamental analysis. Understanding the industry dynamics, competitive landscape, and market trends can provide insights into a company's growth potential and its ability to outperform its peers. There is a plethora of this information online, and diligence in your research will make a world of difference.
By combining financial analysis with industry analysis, investors can gain a deeper understanding of a company's overall prospects and make more informed investment decisions.
Finding a Balance Between Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis requires a thoughtful approach. Here are some strategies to help you integrate the two approaches:
Start with fundamental analysis: Begin by analyzing a company's financials and industry trends to assess its long-term growth potential. This will provide you with a solid foundation for your investment decisions.
Use technical analysis for timing: Once you've identified a promising investment opportunity based on fundamental analysis, use technical analysis to refine your entry and exit points. Technical indicators and chart patterns can help you identify optimal times to buy or sell a stock.
Consider the bigger picture: While technical analysis focuses on short-term market trends, it's important to consider the long-term value of a company. Evaluate the fundamental factors that can impact a company's growth potential and use technical analysis as a tool to validate your investment thesis.
Keep an eye on market sentiment: Market sentiment can influence stock prices in the short term. By staying informed about news events, economic indicators, and market trends, you can better understand the context in which technical and fundamental analysis are operating.
By finding a balance between technical and fundamental analysis, you can better manage your investment decisions that take into account both short-term market dynamics and long-term value. This balanced approach can help you navigate the complex world of investing and maximize your chances of success.
In conclusion, understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis is crucial for making theoretically sound investment decisions. By finding a balance between the two approaches, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, considering both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis can help provide a better view and maximize your chances of making profitable investment decisions.
Happy Trading!
Know Sure Thing: Navigating Trends and Volatility EffectivelyIn the realm of technical analysis, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator stands out as a robust tool for traders seeking to decipher market trends and manage volatility effectively. This momentum-based oscillator amalgamates multiple moving averages to offer a comprehensive perspective on market momentum across various timeframes.
Introduction to the Know Sure Thing (KST) Indicator
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is designed to unveil the market's underlying momentum, encompassing both short and long-term trends. The KST is a dynamic momentum oscillator rooted in the Rate of Change (ROC) principle. It amalgamates four distinct ROC timeframes, smoothing them via Simple Moving Averages. Consequently, the KST generates a fluctuating final value, oscillating above and below a Zero Line. Additionally, it incorporates a signal line, derived from an SMA of the KST line itself.
The moving average methodology of KST empowers traders with a tool capable of identifying both bullish and bearish trends, providing an encompassing view of market momentum shifts. Fundamentally, this indicator gauges momentum using the ROC across four price periods, aiding analysts in detecting divergences, overbought or oversold market conditions, and crossovers.
Understanding Trends with KST
The KST indicator is predominantly used to discern the strength and direction of market trends. When the KST line crosses above its signal line, it signifies a bullish trend shift, indicating a potential upward price movement. Conversely, when the KST line dips below the signal line, it suggests a bearish trend shift, signaling a potential downward price movement.
Similar to the MACD, when a crossover happens and the KST line crosses over the zero the overall signal can be considered to have a greater degree of confirmation.
Moreover, traders rely on crossovers and divergences within the KST indicator for confirming trend reversals or continuations. Bullish and bearish divergences between KST and price action can provide valuable insights into potential market movements, offering opportunities for traders to enter or exit positions.
Managing Volatility Using KST
Beyond trend identification, KST also assists in measuring market volatility. It enables traders to gauge the degree of volatility present in the market at any given time. Sharp spikes or fluctuations in KST readings often coincide with periods of increased market volatility. This information is crucial for traders as it aids in adapting their strategies to accommodate varying market conditions, thereby managing risk more effectively.
Practical Applications of KST
A practical application of KST involves combining its signals with other technical indicators, such as Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) or Relative Strength Index (RSI), to strengthen trade setups. For instance, if KST indicates a bullish crossover and MACD confirms the same, it enhances the confidence of a potential uptrend.
Additionally, traders use KST to identify bullish or bearish signals in conjunction with chart patterns. A bullish KST crossover alongside a bullish chart pattern like a "falling wedge" could reinforce the conviction for a long position.
Tips for Effective Utilization:
Effective utilization of the KST indicator requires a clear understanding of its strengths and limitations. Traders should consider experimenting with different settings and timeframes to find the optimal configuration that aligns with their trading strategies. Always implement some form of backtesting or paper trading to confirm that your strategy is in fact profitable.
The strengths of the KST indicator lies in its ability to offer a more complete view of market momentum. However, like any technical indicator, KST has limitations. During choppy or ranging markets, it might generate false or contradictory signals, leading to potentially misguided trading decisions. Traders should exercise caution and supplement KST readings with additional forms of analysis to mitigate the impact of its limitations.
It's paramount not to rely solely on a single indicator like the KST, but to corroborate KST signals with signals from other indicators or methods of analysis. A fortified approach involving multiple confirmatory signals, fundamental analysis, and risk management strategies strengthens trading decisions and minimizes potential false signals from any single indicator.
Conclusion:
The journey to mastering the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator involves continuous learning, experimentation with settings, and adapting to evolving market conditions. By staying adaptable, open to new strategies, and consistently refining trading methodologies, traders can harness the full potential of the KST to navigate trends and volatility effectively.
In summary, the KST serves as a valuable addition to traders' toolkits, empowering them to make better trading decisions. Remember, while the KST enhances market analysis, prudent risk management and a comprehensive trading approach remain pivotal for sustained success in the dynamic world of financial markets. Good luck and happy trading!
Fibonacci Retracement/Extensions- How & Why? | Live ExampleFibonacci retracements in technical analysis of various assets use a mathematical sequence discovered by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. This sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. In stock trading, Fibonacci retracements are used to identify potential levels of support or resistance during price corrections.
Imagine you have a stock that has been rising in price for some time. Suddenly, it starts to decline. Traders who use Fibonacci retracements believe that during this downward movement, the stock price will likely retrace or bounce back to certain levels before continuing its downward trend.
These retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence. The most commonly used levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. For example, if a stock's price drops from 100 to 80, traders would expect it to bounce back to around 88.20 (38.2% retracement), 90 (50% retracement), or 93.20 (61.8% retracement) before continuing its decline.
While their effectiveness is debated just like any other tool, many traders including myself believe that these levels act as psychological support or resistance points due to the large number of market participants who follow this approach.
Let us get back on the example above.
I drew a trendline which had helped me back in 2021 to predict the top in GOLD. This is the perfect example of how EVERY PRICE movement matters. The Fibonacci levels are derived from levels from 2008. In this example the Fibonacci extension level 3.618 held as a perfect resistance for the price of GOLD.
2008 to 2023, isn't this amazing? How long can a single price movement can have its affect!
How to draw a Fibonacci Retracement/Extension?
It's fairly simple. Just plot one end of the fib to the high of the price movement and the other to the low or vice versa.
I'll answering all your queries in the comments below. Please feel free to reach out!
8 Things I Wish I Knew When Getting StartedHere are some insights I've gathered over the years of trading experience
1. Position Sizing: A common issue for traders stems from taking positions that are too large. Emotional decision-making often takes over when you see your account balance decreasing. I've observed traders exiting trades prematurely to free up capital for what they perceive as a 'better opportunity'. Ideally, you should trade as if each share counts significantly. Emotion-driven decisions tend to lead to poor outcomes. While your goal is to make a profit, it's crucial to balance this with not trading from a place of fear.
2. Avoiding FOMO: The fear of missing out (FOMO) has led to the downfall of many trading accounts. We've all experienced moments of witnessing a stock, like CLOV, suddenly gaining traction in trading forums or chat rooms. The natural reaction might be to join in hastily, often abandoning solid trades for the allure of rapid gains. However, this usually leads to frustration as the market can quickly change direction. My advice is to steer clear of FOMO; assess trades on their merits rather than the hype.
3. Exit Strategy: One of the most common queries is about when to exit a trade. New traders often take profits too early and hold onto losing positions for too long. My key piece of advice is to focus on technical analysis rather than your current profit or loss. I exit a trade when the initial conditions that led me to enter it change. This approach requires a shift in mindset from profit/loss consideration to technical analysis. Interestingly, many experienced day traders prefer mental stops over hard stops, though they require experience and skill.
4. Journaling: Keeping a detailed record of your trades, whether through software or manually, is vital. This practice helps in analyzing your strengths and weaknesses. Understanding patterns in your trading, like the time of day when you're most successful or which types of trades work best for you, is crucial for improvement.
5. Buying Strategy: The common wisdom of 'Buy Low - Sell High' doesn't always hold. Sometimes, it's more effective to 'Buy High - Sell Higher', especially in the context of strong bullish momentum. Joining a trend can often be more profitable than waiting for the perfect low entry point.
6. Market Predictions: Avoid the trap of trying to predict market tops and bottoms. Following technical analysis is more reliable than going with gut feelings or trying to time the market.
7. Market Understanding: No one, not even economists, can claim complete market understanding. Trading based on market speculation or biases can lead to poor decision-making. Focus on the present market conditions.
8. Knowledge is Key: Lastly, don't trade what you don't understand. This seems straightforward, but many traders enter markets or trades without fully grasping the mechanisms at play, often leading to unnecessary losses. Understanding is crucial, especially in more complex trades like options.
These insights are drawn from my experiences and observations in the trading world.
Regards,
Harmonic Patterns in Trading: A simple introductionIntroduction
In the world of trading, we often hear about harmonic patterns. These are very special tools in the trader's toolkit. They are complex but very important. In this article, we look into these patterns, how traders use them, and why they are crucial.
Understanding Harmonic Patterns
Harmonic patterns are part of technical analysis in trading. They come from Fibonacci numbers and show potential future price movements. These patterns are not random; they are specific geometric shapes in the markets. Some well-known patterns are Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab, and Shark. Each pattern is unique and uses Fibonacci in a different way.
Top Harmonic Patterns
Gartley Pattern: This is a very famous pattern. It looks like an 'M' or 'W' shape. It helps traders to find good points for buying or selling.
Bat Pattern: This pattern is similar to Gartley but with different Fibonacci measurements. It's known for its high accuracy in predicting market reversals.
Butterfly Pattern: This pattern indicates a strong reversal. It's like Gartley and Bat but has a longer 'wing'.
Crab Pattern: Known for its extreme accuracy, the Crab pattern offers precise entry and exit points.
Shark Pattern: This is a newer pattern. It helps to identify very sharp and sudden changes in the market.
Fibonacci and Markets: A Symbiotic Relationship
Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers important in many areas, including markets. Traders use these numbers to predict where the market might go.
Importance of Harmonic Patterns in Trading
Predicting Markets: These patterns help traders to guess future market movements, unlike other tools that only analyze past data.
Strategic Trading: They offer clear points for entering and exiting trades, which helps in planning.
Versatility: Useful in various markets like forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
Risk Management: They provide structured ways to manage trading risks.
Complementing Strategies: Harmonic patterns can be combined with other market analysis methods for stronger trading strategies.
Learning Curve
Understanding harmonic patterns requires time and market knowledge. But they offer a clear insight into market behavior, which is very valuable for traders.
Challenges
Using harmonic patterns can be tricky. They need correct identification, and market volatility can sometimes affect their accuracy. So, traders need to be adaptable.
Conclusion
Harmonic patterns are a mix of mathematics and market understanding. They use Fibonacci to interpret market movements. For traders willing to learn, they offer deeper market insights. In trading, understanding these patterns can be a great advantage.
Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
Slippery Slope: What is Slippage?
With the unfortunate demise of the prop firm My Forex Funds, the issue of slippage has recently become a hot topic. This educational post takes a look at the slippery issue of slippage, beginning with the basics all the way to addressing popular theories and speculations about slippage. Something to remember is that every trader, regardless of expertise, will encounter slippage during their trading activity.
What exactly is slippage?
Slippage is the term used in the forex market to describe the difference between the requested price at which you expect to fill your order and the actual price that you end up paying. Slippage most often occurs during periods of high market volatility, when market conditions are very thin due to low volumes traded or when the market gaps; all of these scenarios then lead to market conditions being such that orders cannot be executed at the price quoted. Therefore, when this happens, your order will be filled at the next available price, which may be either higher or lower than you had anticipated. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimise negative slippage while potentially maximising positive slippage.
Market Gap
High Market Volatility
Slippage is part of trading and cannot be avoided. This is due to forex market volatility and execution speeds. When a market experiences high volatility, it generally means there’s low liquidity. The reason for this is that during this time, market prices fluctuate very quickly. Where this affects forex traders is when there’s not enough FX liquidity to fill an order at the requested price. When this happens, the liquidity provider will complete the trade at the next best available price.
Another cause of slippage is execution speed. This is how fast your Electronic Communication Network (ECN) can complete a trade at your requested price. With market prices changing in fractions of a second, having faster execution times can make a difference, especially on large trades.
What is the difference between positive slippage, no slippage, and negative slippage?
When slippage occurs, it is usually negative, meaning you paid more for the asset than you wanted to, though at some times it can also be positive. When slippage is positive, it means you paid less for the trade than you expected and therefore got a better price. To get a better understanding of this, let's see the image below.
How do you calculate slippage?
Let's assume that the price of the EUR/USD is 1.05000. After doing your research and analysing the market, you speculate that it’s on an upward trend and long a one-standard lot trade at the current price of EUR/USD 1.05100, expecting to execute at the same price of 1.05100.
The market follows the trend; however, it goes past your execution price and up to 1.05105 very quickly—quicker than a second. Because your expected price of 1.05100 is not available in the market, you’re offered the next best available price. For the sake of the example, let's assume that the best next price is 1.05105. In this case, you would experience negative slippage (positive for the broker), as you got in at a worse price than you wanted:
1.05100 – 1.05105 = -0.00005, or -0.5 pips.
On the other hand, let’s say your trade was executed at 1.05095. You would then experience positive slippage (negative for the broker), as you got in at a cheaper price than you wanted:
1.05100 – 1.05095 = +0.00005, or +0.5 pips.
Negative Slippage Example
Is slippage a technical glitch in a broker’s software, or is it built and designed to bring in extra revenue?
There are popular beliefs that slippage is a software glitch or that it is made just to give brokers and liquidity providers extra revenue. This is not true, as slippage is something that is unavoidable. There are times when the markets are extremely volatile and price movements are too quick due to a lack of liquidity.
Slippage does bring in extra revenue for brokers and liquidity providers, but you need to remember that slippage goes both ways; while brokers and liquidity providers will generate profits from negative slippage, they will also generate losses from positive slippage. Though there are times when brokers (very rare) use price manipulation on their clients to generate additional revenue (more on this later).
How can a trader avoid or minimise slippage?
While slippage is impossible to fully avoid, there are a few things you can do to minimise the impact of slippage and protect yourself as much as possible in the markets, including using stop-loss orders to limit their exposure and placing orders during less volatile times.
Stop-loss orders are instructions to your broker to immediately exit a trade if it reaches a certain price. By using stop-loss orders, you can limit your losses if the market moves against you. High liquid markets such as Forex enable you to take advantage of market swings to enter and exit trades rapidly, limiting your exposure to the market but also increasing the risk that your stop-loss order may not be executed at the price you expect if the market moves quickly against you. Additionally, there are some brokers that offer traders guaranteed stop-loss orders called 'Guaranteed Stop Orders' (GSOs), meaning that the stop-loss price is guaranteed, which makes the trader unaffected by slippage when getting stopped out.
Another way to reduce the impact of slippage is to trade during less volatile times. The forex market is open 24 hours a day, but not all hours are equal. There are times when there are hardly any trading volumes being generated, and you want to avoid trading during this time at all costs as trading spreads will be wider and you will most likely get slipped due to the lack of liquidity in the markets. The best times to trade are usually when the market is most active, which is typically during specific trading sessions such as the Eurpoean or US trading sessions. To summarise, to minimise slippage, you should:
What is slippage tolerance, and how should you factor that into account with regard to your stop-loss and risk-to-reward calculations?
Some brokers will enable a feature called the 'Market Order Deviation Range' where the trader can adjust the slippage's maximum deviation. This is done so a trader can estimate his or her tolerance to slippage. For example, if you set the maximum deviation to 3 pips, the order will be filled as long as the slippage equals 3 or below. If the price slips beyond the set maximum, the order won't be filled. This is an effective way of managing your risk-to-reward calculations because if you have a strict risk-to-reward set-up and do not have much leeway to give in terms of slippage, you can adjust the slippage tolerance setting so that if the trade comes with more slippage than your trade can afford, it will not enter you in the trade.
How can a trader tell if his or her broker is being predatory with regard to slippage?
Although rare and illegal now that regulators are prevalent in the industry, in some cases, brokers may manipulate prices to cause slippage. This usually happens during times of high volatility when there are a lot of market orders. By creating a large amount of slippage, brokers can increase their profits. Forex brokers that are not regulated by the major governing bodies are more likely to do this. For a broker to gain the regulation of a major governing body, they must adhere to very strict guidelines set out by the regulating authority. Firstly, if you suspect that your broker is manipulating prices, you should immediately look for another broker. If you have evidence of your broker manipulating prices, you should report that broker to the financial authorities.
A good way to gauge if a broker is potentially manipulating prices is by requesting a trade journal from them. A good and reputable broker usually offers trade journals to their clients. Trade journals show execution times of trades and will have a comment on the journal if the trade was slipped. On a standard trade journal, slippage comments should not appear there often (unless you are trading at times when the market is volatile, thin, or trading outside liquid hours).
A broker that manipulates prices to their clients is usually hesitant to offer trade journals to their clients because it shows this on the trade journals. So if your broker is not willing to share the trade journals with you, you might want to think twice about continuing to trade with them. To add to that, you can also check if your broker is either a market maker or directly connected to the interbank market, as they will handle slippage differently.
To recap, slippage is a part of forex, and no trader is immune to getting it. It occurs most often during periods of high market volatility. Though slippage is almost impossible to avoid and can impact your profit and losses, there are a few things you can do to minimise slippage and its impact. This includes the use of limit and stop-loss orders, placing orders outside of volatile market times, avoiding major economic and news events, and only using brokers that are regulated by the major governing bodies.
BluetonaFX
5 Technical Indicators for Smart TradingNavigating the intricate world of trading requires a keen understanding of technical indicators. These powerful tools serve as guiding stars, illuminating market trends and potential entry or exit points. Today, we unravel 5 top technical indicators that stand as pillars in the realm of trading. Whether you're a beginner seeking foundational knowledge or an experienced trader aiming to refine your strategy, consider these indicators to enhance your analysis.
1. Moving Averages: Riding the Waves of Market Trends
Moving Averages (MA) are foundational tools in technical analysis, smoothing out price data to identify trends over specific periods.
Simple Moving Averages (SMA) provide straightforward trend indications, while Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) offer more weight to recent prices, making them highly responsive to market shifts. Traders often use crossovers between different MAs to pinpoint entry and exit points and utilize different lengths on different time frames. One common way traders use MA’s is to identify the overall trend using one or two moving averages.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Gauging Overbought and Oversold Conditions
RSI measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between zero and 100, traditionally using levels of 70 for overbought and 30 for oversold. Traders interpret divergences between RSI and price movements, seeking potential reversal points. Additionally, hidden divergences, where RSI disagrees with the underlying trend, are valuable for trend continuation strategies.
3. Bollinger Bands: Embracing Volatility for Profitable Trades
Bollinger Bands consist of a middle line being an MA (often 20 period) and two outer bands representing standard deviations from the middle band.
Volatility increases the distance between the bands, offering a visual representation of market volatility. When the price touches the upper band, it signals potential overbought conditions, while touching the lower band indicates potential oversold conditions. Traders also observe "band squeezes" as precursors to significant price movements.
4. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Capturing Trend Changes
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that highlights the relationship between two Moving Averages (MAs). The MACD line represents the difference between a short-term EMA (often 12 periods) and a long-term EMA (typically 26 periods). The signal line, usually a 9-period EMA of the MACD line, acts as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
Traders observe MACD crossovers, where the MACD line crosses the signal line, as potential entry points. Additionally, MACD histogram bars visualize the distance between the MACD and its signal line, offering insights into the strength and direction of a trend. By understanding these components, traders gain a nuanced understanding of potential trend changes and momentum shifts.
5. Average Directional Index (ADX): Measuring Trend Strength
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a trend strength indicator that quantifies the strength of a market trend without specifying its direction. Typically, an ADX above 25 indicates a strong trend, while below 20 suggests a weak trend.
Traders use ADX crossovers and divergences with the price chart to distinguish between trending and ranging market conditions. A rising ADX suggests a strengthening trend, while a falling ADX may indicate a weakening trend strength.
Combining ADX with other technical indicators enhances a trader's ability to identify robust trends and potential reversals, providing a more comprehensive view of market dynamics.
Wrapping Up:
This article scratches the surface of the indicators listed, there are whole books written on some of them. We have gone more in-depth with most of these indicators in our previous articles. We have linked those articles below if you would like to learn more about any of these foundational indicators. Remember, while these indicators provide valuable data, combining them with a robust risk management strategy, other indicators for confirmation, and a deep understanding of market fundamentals ensures a holistic approach to successful trading. Happy Trading!
Learn 2 Essential Elements of Trading
In the today's post, we will discuss how trading is structured , and I will share with you its 2 key milestones.
Trading with its nuances and complexities can be explained as the interconnections of two processes: trading rules creation and trading rules following.
1️⃣ With the trading rules, you define what you will trade and how exactly, classifying your entry and exist conditions, risk and trade management rules. Such a set of consistent trading rules compose a trading strategy.
For example, you can have a following trading plan:
you trade only gold, you analyze the market with technical analysis,
you buy from a key support and sell from a key resistance on a daily, your entry confirmation is a formation of a reversal candlestick pattern.
You set stop loss above the high/low of the pattern, and your target is the closest support/resistance level.
Here is how the trading setup would look like.
In the charts above, all the conditions for the trade are met, and the market nicely reached the take profit.
2️⃣ Trading strategy development is a very simple process. You can find hundreds of different ones on the internet and start using one immediately.
The main obstacle comes, however, with Following Trading Rules.
Following the rules is our second key milestone. It defines your ability to stay disciplined and to stick to your trading plan.
It implies the control of emotions, patience and avoidance of rationalization.
Once you open a trade, following your rules, challenges are just beginning. Imagine how happy you would feel yourself, seeing how nicely gold is moving to your target after position opening.
And how your mood would change, once the price quickly returns to your entry.
Watching how your profits evaporate and how the initially winning position turns into a losing one, emotions will constantly intervene.
In such situations, many traders break their rules, they start adjusting tp or stop loss or just close the trading, not being able to keep holding.
The ability to follow your system is a very hard skill to acquire. It requires many years of practicing. So if you believe that a good trading strategy is what you need to make money, please, realize the fact that even the best trading strategy in the world will lose without consistency and discipline.
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EURUSD is in position to Fall!As price has reached premium prices, retracing 50+%, I am on the lookout for a reversal pattern.
When price sweeps LQ from the buyside or sellside, usually it goes in the opposite direction.
As I am bearish overall, I am looking for the HTF resumption of the overall trend, which is bearish.
Agree or disagree?
Leave a comment or question, and I will be happy to respond.
Tap that LIKE button for me, will you? Thank you.
AUDUSD... look for the SELL setup now!Part 1 of the buy2sell setup is complete. +50 pips
Now, we look for the sell setup. Target will be the low.
There are two FVGs to look for a valid setup.
I'm looking for the sweep of a high, a bearish displacement that breaks market structure and leaves a FVG, then a pullback to that FVG for the entry.
Like this video if you found a benefit in it. Consider subscribing to my channel if you like my content and want more.
Thank you.
SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH
In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character.
Change of Character relates to market trend analysis.
In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis.
🔘 Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market.
They believe that the trend is bullish ,
if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them.
The market trend is considered to be bearish ,
if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them.
Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice.
One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs.
According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs.
🔘Of course, trends do not last forever.
A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading.
Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation.
📉In a bearish trend , the main focus is the level of the last lower high.
While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish .
However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal,
it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a c onfirmed violation of a bearish trend.
In a bearish trend , CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern.
Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold.
After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave.
📈In a bullish trend , the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low . While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish .
A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern.
Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below.
In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level
quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal.
Change of Character is one of the simplest, yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know.
First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal.
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Learn 6 Common Beginner Trading Mistakes
In the today's post, we will discuss very common beginner's mistakes in trading that you should avoid.
1. No trading plan 📝
That is certainly the TOP 1 mistake. I don't know why it happens but 99% of newbies assume that they don't need a trading plan.
It is more than enough for them to watch a couple of educational videos, read some books about trading and Voilà when a good setup appears they can easily recognize and trade it without a plan.
Guys, I guarantee you that you will blow your trading account in maximum 2 months if you keep thinking like that. Trading plan is the essential part of every trading approach, so build one and follow that strictly.
2. Overtrading 💱
That mistake comes from a common newbies' misconception: they think that in order to make money in trading, they should trade a lot. The more they trade, the higher are the potential gains.
Same reasoning appears when they choose a signal service: the more trades a signal provider shares, the better his signals are supposed to be.
However, the truth is that good trades are very rare and your goal as a trader is to recognize and trade only the best setups. While the majority of the trading opportunities are risky and not profitable.
3. Emotional trading 😤
There are 2 ways to make a trading decision: to make it objectively following the rules of your trading plan or to follow the emotions.
The second option is the main pick of the newbies.
The intuition, fear, desire are their main drivers. And such an approach is of course doomed to a failure.
And we will discuss the emotional trading in details in the next 2 sections.
4. Having no patience ⏳
Patience always pays. That is the trader's anthem.
However, in practice, it is extremely hard to keep holding the trade that refuses to reach the target, that comes closer and closer to a stop loss level, that stuck around the entry level.
Once we are in a trade, we want the price to go directly to our goal without any delay. And the more we wait, the harder it is to keep waiting. The impatience makes traders close their trades preliminary, missing good profits.
5. Greed 🤑
Greed is your main and worst enemy in this game.
It will pursue you no matter how experienced you are.
The desire to get maximum from every move, to not miss any pip of profit, will be your permanent obstacle.
Greed will also pursue you after you close the profitable trades. No matter how much you win, how many good winning trades you catch in a row, you always want more. And that sense main lead you to making irrational, bad trading decision.
6. Big Risks 🛑
Why to calculate lot size for the trade?
Why even bother about risk management?
These are the typical thoughts of the newbies.
Newbie traders completely underestimate the risks involved in trading and for that reason they are risking big.
I heard so many times these stories, when a trading deposit of a trader is wiped out with a one single bad trade.
Never ever risk big, especially if you just started.
Start with a very conservative approach and risk a tiny little portion of your trading account per trade.
Of course there are a lot more mistakes to discuss.
However, the ones that I listed above at the most common
and I am kindly recommending you to fix them before you start trading with a substantial amount of money.
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The Trader's Odyssey: Navigating the Financial Seas 🌊💼📈
The journey of a trader is a dynamic and often challenging expedition through the world of finance. This comprehensive guide embarks on the trader's odyssey, shedding light on the trials, triumphs, and key waypoints that define the path to success. Join us as we navigate the intricate journey of a trader, enriched with real-world examples and insights to help you embark on your own trading adventure.
The Trader's Voyage: Charting the Course
The Aspiring Trader's Dream 🌟
Every trader begins with a dream—a vision of financial success and independence. This dream motivates aspiring traders to explore the markets and embark on their journey.
Learning the Ropes: Education and Preparation 📚
Successful traders invest time in understanding the financial markets and the tools they'll be using. They undertake courses, read books, and follow the guidance of experienced mentors to build a solid foundation.
Example 1: John's Journey
Navigating the Markets: Strategies and Techniques 🗺
As traders gain knowledge, they develop and fine-tune trading strategies. This phase includes identifying preferred asset classes, risk management plans, and the use of technical and fundamental analysis.
Example 2: Sarah's Expedition
Weathering the Storms: Trading Psychology 🌦
Trading psychology plays a significant role in a trader's journey. The ability to control emotions, handle losses, and maintain discipline is paramount for success.
Making Landfall: Achieving Consistency and Adaptation 🏝
Consistent profitability is the goal. Traders need to adapt to changing market conditions and continuously refine their strategies.
The Elusive Treasure: Risk and Reward 💰
The trader's journey involves assessing and managing risk. Success requires striking a balance between risk and reward, understanding that losses are part of the voyage.
The journey of a trader is a remarkable expedition filled with challenges and opportunities. Through education, strategy development, psychological resilience, and continuous adaptation, traders can chart a course towards their financial goals. Just like sailors navigating uncharted waters, traders brave the ever-changing seas of the financial markets, and their success depends on their skills, knowledge, and unwavering commitment. May your journey be filled with favorable winds and profitable horizons. 🌊💼📈
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
🔥 Learn To Trade With FT: Fibonacci RetracementsAs of today I will start a new series for the TradingView community: Learn To Trade With FieryTrading.
I will be doing deep-dive analyses on different trading strategies to explain how they work and especially why they work. The idea behind this overview is to make you a better, more well informed trader.
If you learn anything from this post, please give it a like!
Learn To Trade With FT: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
Introduction:
Fibonacci retracements are a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify potential support and resistance levels in financial markets. Derived from the Fibonacci sequence, this tool can help you make more informed trading decisions. In this guide, we'll walk you through how to use Fibonacci retracements effectively and how to draw them accurately.
Understanding the Fibonacci Sequence:
Before diving into Fibonacci retracements, it's essential to understand the Fibonacci sequence. The sequence begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the two preceding ones. The sequence goes like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on. The ratios derived from these numbers are used in Fibonacci retracements.
The primary Fibonacci ratios used in retracements are:
0.236 (23.6%)
0.382 (38.2%)
0.500 (50.0%)
0.618 (61.8%)
0.786 (78.6%)
1.000 (100.0%)
How to Draw Fibonacci Retracements:
Select a Trend: Identify a significant price trend (either up or down) on your chart. Fibonacci retracement reversals usually work better in strong trends.
Choose the Swing Points: Locate the swing points of the trend. A swing low is the lowest point in an upward trend, and a swing high is the highest point in a downward trend.
Draw the Fibonacci Lines: Using Tradingview's Fibonacci Retracement Tool (ALT+F), draw a horizontal line from the swing low to the swing high (for an uptrend) or from the swing high to the swing low (for a downtrend).
Identify Key Levels: The lines you've drawn will automatically divide the trend into various retracement levels, as per the Fibonacci ratios mentioned earlier. The most common levels to pay attention to are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels.
Learn To Trade
Once you have spotted a strong trend on the chart, it's to be expected that the price will pull back somewhat, which is where you will be waiting as an expert trader.
Once the price starts pulling back, look at which Fibonacci Retracement it will stick. Once the price starts trading horizontally for a while, there's a decent probability that the Fibonacci Retracement will hold and that the price will continue its longer-term trend from there onwards.
To make this strategy even better, try to combine it with the RSI. A severely oversold RSI after a pull-back from a strong bullish trend is likely to find support at one of the key Fibonacci Retracements. Put it on your chart and see for yourself!
Note: this strategy is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Learn how to use it in conjunction with your current strategies. Use this strategy to create order in a world of chaos.
Why Does This Work
Like many other trading indicators and strategies, it's a self fulfilling prophecy . If a lot of people is watching a certain indicator or line, it's more likely that they will react to it.
Same reason that supports and resistances often cause reversals, same goes for longer period moving averages like the 50 and 200 period MA's.
Real Life Examples
In the screenshots below I'm going to show that the 0.382 / 0.5 / 0.618 Fibonacci Retracements offer strong support and resistance on Bitcoin's chart in practically every timeframe. Skilled traders were ready for the Fibonacci Retracements and got good entries in their trades.
Next time this can be you!
This strategy works on every asset.
Apply correct risk-management on your trades by always using a stop-loss.
Learn What Time Frame to Trade
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering how to choose a trading time frame . In the today's post, I will go through the common time frames , and explain when to apply them.
1m; 5m, 15m Time Frames
These 4 t.f's are very rapid and are primarily applied by scalpers.
If your goal is to catch quick ebbs and flows within a trading session, that is a perfect selection for you.
30m, 1H Time Frame
These 2 are perfectly suited for day traders.
Executing the analysis and opening the trades on these time frames,
you will be able to catch the moves within a trading day.
4h, Daily Time Frames
These time frames are relatively slow.
They are mostly applied by swing traders, who aim to trade the moves that last from several days to several weeks.
Weekly, Monthly Time Frames
These time frames reveal long-term historical perspective and are mostly used by investors and position traders.
If your goal is to look for buy & hold assets, these time frames will help you to make a reasonable decision.
📝When you are choosing a time frame to trade, consider the following factors :
1️⃣ - Time Availability
How much time daily/weekly are you able to sacrifice on trading?
Remember a simple rule: lower is the time frame, more time it requires for management.
2️⃣ - Risk Tolerance
Smaller time frames usually involve higher risk,
while longer-term time frames are considered to be more conservative and stable.
3️⃣ - Your Trading Goals
If you are planning to benefit from short term price fluctuations you should concentrate your attention on lower time frames,
while investing and long-term capital accumulation suite for higher time frames.
Time frame selection is nuanced and a complex topic. However, I believe that these simple rules and factors will help you to correctly choose the one for you.
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4 Classic Bullish Patterns EVERY TRADER Must Know
In the today's post, we will discuss accurate bullish price action patterns that you can apply for trading any financial instrument.
1️⃣Bullish Flag Pattern
Such a pattern appears in a bullish trend after a completion of the bullish impulse. The flag represents a falling parallel channel. The market corrects itself within.
Bullish breakout of the resistance line of the channel is a strong bullish signal that can be applied for buying the market.
Best entries should be placed immediately after a breakout or on a retest.
Safest stop loss is below the lows of the flag.
Target - the next key resistance.
Here is the example of a bullish flag pattern that was formed on Gold on a 1H time frame. As you can see, after the breakout of the resistance of the flag, a strong bullish rally initiated.
2️⃣Ascending Triangle
Such a pattern forms in a bullish trend on the top of the bullish impulse. The market starts consolidation, respecting the same highs and setting higher lows simultaneously.
The equal highs compose a horizontal resistance that is called the neckline.
Its breakout is an important sign of strength of the buyers.
Buy the market aggressively after a violation, or set a buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss should lie at least below the last higher low within a triangle.
Target - the next strong resistance.
Take a look at that ascending triangle formation on EURUSD.
Bullish breakout of its neckline was a perfect bullish signal.
3️⃣Falling Wedge
That formation is very similar to a bullish flag pattern.
The only difference is that the price action within the wedge is contracting so that the trend line of the wedge are getting closer to each other with time.
Your signal to buy is a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge.
Stop loss is strictly below its lows.
Target - the next key resistance.
GBPUSD formed a falling wedge on a 4H time frame, trading in a strong bullish trend.
You can behold how nicely the price bounced after a breakout of its upper boundary.
4️⃣Horizontal Range
Similarly to the ascending triangle, the horizontal range forms at the top of a bullish impulse in a bullish trend.
The price starts consolidation, then, setting equal highs and equal lows that compose a horizontal channel.
Breakout of the resistance of the range is a strong trend-following signal.
Buy the market aggressively after a breakout or conservatively on a retest.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the range.
Target - the next strong resistance.
Dollar Index formed a horizontal range, trading in a strong bullish trend.
Breakout of the resistance of the range triggered a bullish rally.
The best part about these patterns is that they can be applied on any time frame. Whether you are a scalper, day trader or swing trader, you can rely on these formations and make consistent profits.
📝 ALWAYS review your trades and improve your trading strategy.ALL your trades should get a good in-depth review. Unless, of course, you're just gambling, then the market isn't for you, and you're likely not even using TradingView -- because why would you need a chart? 🙂
If you make a red trade, review it, do better next time.
If you make a green trade, but you were like this the whole time: :sweating: ... chances are you were lucky. Review it, do better next time.
If you make a green trade and it doesn't "continue", so to speak, either you knew exactly what you were doing (nice!), or you were lucky. Review it, do better next time.
If you make a GREAT trade and it continues to RIP after (aka "left gains on the table"), NICE JOB.. Review it. Do it again. And again.
Keep reviewing all your trades till you have a bullet proof strategy.
There is no other way to advance as a trader.
If you don't review your trades, you will not improve.
Open your mind to learning from other traders. You may be better than them in some things, but they may be better than you in some things.
Kobe, Lebron, Ronaldo, Messi, Brady, and every athlete you can name has went to practice every day throughout his/ her career. Pros don't stop practicing. Neither should you.
In the referenced trade, I made a quick +10% in NASDAQ:QQQ calls. Although the intention was to scalp, I got lucky to not get burned. Here's how I normally review my trades:
Remember to NOT force trades. There's no point. I warned against forcing any trades yesterday in my quad/ triple witching post. Volatility is no joke. More volatility coming next week. Remember that.
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