LMND - Update Hi guys, ive been tracking LMND since february as i noticed we were interacting with major resistance trend line that formed since its top in 2021. Just to mention its extremely hard to predict what goes on in the markets, and i was somewhat wrong in my short term prediction in my previous charts. As we made a lower low ($10.37). BUT im still long this company and my thesis in general for the longer term is still INTACT.
Remember this is strictly technical analysis ONLY. I do not go into fundamentals at all and quite frankly it works for me. I believe the charts to be the only tools needed as they help increase my probabilities of success.
Anyway lets jump in.
Firstly we start with price action. This analysis is done on the weekly timeframe. So this analysis is not for short term trading but to assess a longer term trend change.
We are currently in the process of breaking the orange downward sloping trend line i drew that began in july 2022 (notice the green arrow as well).
The candle is also a massive sized candle which is extremely bullish. BUT please note this candle has NOT yet closed. We must wait for tomorrows (friday) candle close. If we do close at these levels and we are above orange trend line. In my opinion this is extremely bullish. As this will wipe out the last 4 bearish candles. The candle also shows there was massive buying from $10.37.
We are also approaching the yellow line which is the 21 week moving average. This is crucial as for all assets, if we move above, confirm and it acts as support it signifies at the very least a couple of weeks to many weeks of movement to the UPSIDE.
We are also approaching the trend resistance downsloping trend line. THIS IS MAJOR RESISTANCE since January 2021. If we manage to get above this, in my opinion will be a big sign for LMND to have seen its bottom.
But we have to be patient. Take it week by week. We can also see prices move sideways, as bottoms take some time to formulate.
Now, as mentioned in my previous charts (posted below), i was wrong in the short-term price movements. I did not expect the drop of price to $10.37. I was expecting a move directly to the red trend line. But notice how we reactd to the white trendline, with this massive engulfing bullish candle.
ALso my thesis on the BULLISH DIVERGENCE has strengthened even more, after the drp to $10.37. And notice since we are in the weekly timeframe. The move that may ensue, if i am correct about the divergence can be a massive one.
Bullish divergence is highlighted by the white trend lines drawn in the price action and the RSI indicator.
ALso just note, at $10.37 we were down 94% from the top at $187.00.
**********Also note to take a trade, we need to wait for next week candles close and look for confirmation candle patterns printing. It is still possible for tomorrow to be a down day and it closing below the orange trend line************
NOTE also in the RSI. -> we are breaking out of the trend resistance trend line. Forming a higher high. We are also above the yellow moving average. This is bullish if we close tomorrow above these 2.
CONCLUSION:
Though i was wrong in the short term about price action, all in all it may be in a consolidation phase. A BULLISH divergence is also in play, currently with the RSI spike to the upside, might be playing out as we speak. We do have to observe the close of this current candle, as it being a weekly candle, we must wait and see what tomorrow brings. If we end of closing above $13.88 tomorrow, we must see what next week brings. Its also important to note the size of this candle, if we are bigger than the previous red candle come tomorrow, this is a good sign. It shows buying. RSI is also breaking trends and creating a higher high after 1 month. Overall things are looking good but we must exhibit patience. Next couple weeks is crucial for LMND.
Hope this helps. If you have any questions on TA, please comment. Let me know alsow hat you think. Please boost and follow if you like this content. I will be putting up more updates on LMND as well and will be closely observing since i am holding a position.
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT fiancial advise, i am NOT a financial advisor. Everything expressed in this post and all my posts are just my opinion and for my own educational purposes. When making trades, please do create & follow your own strategies. Make sure you focus on risk management and protect yourselves with stop losses.
Lemonade
Drink it down!Lemonade
Short Term
We look to Sell at 22.81 (stop at 25.17)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Previous resistance located at 23.00. The medium term bias remains bullish. There is scope for mild upward pressure at the open but we look for selling interest to resist gains.
Our profit targets will be 16.20 and 15.01
Resistance: 23.00 / 30.00 / 60.00
Support: 16.20 / 10.00 / 5.00
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Lemonade Forecast!LMND is oversold - Retest of 50 day EMA - 21 week EMA is expected. This will correspond to the wave 4 target, which also happens to be the top of the channel trendline. We are in a zig-zag corrective structure which means a fifth wave to the downside is expected post retest. We are, nevertheless, in a downtrend channel!
LMND ~ Multiple Support levelEvery circle in the chart is pointing out a test of the support level at $80 approximately. As you can see, since the IPO, we have tested this level multiple times.
The arrow in the RSI shows a positive divergence, where every test had a slightly higher level. Unfortunately, if you used this method on the range from early March to late April, you would have gotten stopped out most likely as we had a failed breakout.
We are getting another potential setup, as the RSI is once again diverging, and we are testing the same support level. The one thing different aspect with the latest positive divergence is we never got under 30 RSI; which is a signal of strengthening.
LMND Can this growth stock see ATH again?LMND Daily TF
Analysis
After a steep correction to 58 from ATH in January at 180s... Lmnd is looking primed for a downtrend breakout. The AI driven Insurance company has grown from homeowners & renters insurance to pet insurance and now planning to get into the auto mobile insurance which gives a good outlook for growth in the coming years. The stock price is currently trading under the 20 ema and experiencing quite a bit of price action between 80-100 range the past few months. So its possible we see some range buyers coming near 80 with ER approaching to give LMND a nice run up into next week. Looking to start a position if we can get a dip to 76-80 range or reclaim 90 and hold.
PT: 100+
Key levels
Support: 80.22, 76.09, 68.93
Resistance: 93.62, 99.93, 115.80, 137.10, ath
Ways to Play
1. Shares (short term trade/long term hold)
2. ATM/OTM long call option contracts (2 week+ exp/ 80-90cs)
Lemonade (LMND) When will the drop stop?I'm really excited about the Lemonade company and believe they could provide a real upset in the outdated insurance industry.
The recent price drop seems to have caught people out - but to me seems like a normal retest, their rise has been fairly quick after all and this movement seems healthy for the stock. The Q4 earnings report had nothing sinister or overly negative and I'm bullish!
So when to enter? Well we could see a nice bounce here, if we see a rise as markets open today and then another bounce off the same level I'd be looking to enter. Equally we could continue to drop to the $100 mark and see a similar pattern, I'd be surprised if it dropped any further but the market is pretty volatile right now so caution is required.
This is not financial advice!
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US Stock In Play: $LMND (Lemonade Inc)$LMND have imposed a staggering rally of +49.23% cumulative gain in 3 days upon breaking out of its 3 weeks Symmetrical Triangle consolidation. The consequential breakout was met with healthy transactional volume, affirming a resumption of its prior bullish momentum established since early December 2020.
With average price volatility currently at all time high level of $14.77/day, this morning's breakout further implied a 157% increase in price volatility to close the session at $183.26, a fresh new all time high level for $LMND.
LMND. This Insurance Disruptor will DOUBLE in the Next 3 Months!NYSE:LMND is the new and promising tech company in the insurance market. It's beyond promising; it's already a product with proven scalability and disruptive features to the aging insurance business model. Lemonade follows a creative insurance model. To understand this, consider the conventional insurance business model where companies are incentivized to NOT approve claims of their customers. That's because less money given to customers means more profits for the shareholders. This places you, the customer, and them in a constant state of dispute. It is a flawed business model. Lemonade flips that around and removes the incentive completely by introducing one simple rule. Their profit margin is fixed. They will always take 25% of what you pay. The remaining 75% will be used either to cover claims, or to be donated to a charity organization of your choice. This way, they have no incentive to deny your claim. At the same time, you have no incentive to claim more than what you think is fair because you will be reducing what goes to the charity of your choice.
On top of that, Lemonade is a tech company that employs Artificial Intelligence to manage claims. You will be surprised, and perhaps you shouldn't be, how well an AI can catch a fraudster trying to falsely claim some insurance money. This already cuts the cost by a huge margin and allows for faster growth and better scalability.
Currently, Lemonade has proven that their platform works and that it can expand. They are slowly covering more areas than just pet insurance and household insurance. They are expanding to more states in the US and countries around the world. And all of that at a minimal cost of human resource. And the brilliant thing is that the more they expand, the more data they will have to train their AI, and the more accurate and efficient the process would be. That is what disruption looks like. It's new. It flips the model around. It works. It cuts cost by a big margin. It scales. It grows before you even know it. Think Apple, Amazon, Tesla.
Now after this brief introduction, let's get into the chart. I've drawn this ascending channel a week ago and I am surprised that it is holding price this well. This shows strong demand added to the higher lows in RSI. I believe this momentum will accelerate in the coming few months. I've drawn targets based on Fibonacci of the most recent swing.
According to the channel and the Fib levels, this stock can reach $222 by 22 Feb. That's 80% gain in 48 days. I believe that in 90 days, this stock will have doubled, and by the end of the year it will have 5X'd. This is a stock to buy and hold, not a stock to trade. Good luck!