LMND - Update Hi guys, ive been tracking LMND since february as i noticed we were interacting with major resistance trend line that formed since its top in 2021. Just to mention its extremely hard to predict what goes on in the markets, and i was somewhat wrong in my short term prediction in my previous charts. As we made a lower low ($10.37). BUT im still long this company and my thesis in general for the longer term is still INTACT.
Remember this is strictly technical analysis ONLY. I do not go into fundamentals at all and quite frankly it works for me. I believe the charts to be the only tools needed as they help increase my probabilities of success.
Anyway lets jump in.
Firstly we start with price action. This analysis is done on the weekly timeframe. So this analysis is not for short term trading but to assess a longer term trend change.
We are currently in the process of breaking the orange downward sloping trend line i drew that began in july 2022 (notice the green arrow as well).
The candle is also a massive sized candle which is extremely bullish. BUT please note this candle has NOT yet closed. We must wait for tomorrows (friday) candle close. If we do close at these levels and we are above orange trend line. In my opinion this is extremely bullish. As this will wipe out the last 4 bearish candles. The candle also shows there was massive buying from $10.37.
We are also approaching the yellow line which is the 21 week moving average. This is crucial as for all assets, if we move above, confirm and it acts as support it signifies at the very least a couple of weeks to many weeks of movement to the UPSIDE.
We are also approaching the trend resistance downsloping trend line. THIS IS MAJOR RESISTANCE since January 2021. If we manage to get above this, in my opinion will be a big sign for LMND to have seen its bottom.
But we have to be patient. Take it week by week. We can also see prices move sideways, as bottoms take some time to formulate.
Now, as mentioned in my previous charts (posted below), i was wrong in the short-term price movements. I did not expect the drop of price to $10.37. I was expecting a move directly to the red trend line. But notice how we reactd to the white trendline, with this massive engulfing bullish candle.
ALso my thesis on the BULLISH DIVERGENCE has strengthened even more, after the drp to $10.37. And notice since we are in the weekly timeframe. The move that may ensue, if i am correct about the divergence can be a massive one.
Bullish divergence is highlighted by the white trend lines drawn in the price action and the RSI indicator.
ALso just note, at $10.37 we were down 94% from the top at $187.00.
**********Also note to take a trade, we need to wait for next week candles close and look for confirmation candle patterns printing. It is still possible for tomorrow to be a down day and it closing below the orange trend line************
NOTE also in the RSI. -> we are breaking out of the trend resistance trend line. Forming a higher high. We are also above the yellow moving average. This is bullish if we close tomorrow above these 2.
CONCLUSION:
Though i was wrong in the short term about price action, all in all it may be in a consolidation phase. A BULLISH divergence is also in play, currently with the RSI spike to the upside, might be playing out as we speak. We do have to observe the close of this current candle, as it being a weekly candle, we must wait and see what tomorrow brings. If we end of closing above $13.88 tomorrow, we must see what next week brings. Its also important to note the size of this candle, if we are bigger than the previous red candle come tomorrow, this is a good sign. It shows buying. RSI is also breaking trends and creating a higher high after 1 month. Overall things are looking good but we must exhibit patience. Next couple weeks is crucial for LMND.
Hope this helps. If you have any questions on TA, please comment. Let me know alsow hat you think. Please boost and follow if you like this content. I will be putting up more updates on LMND as well and will be closely observing since i am holding a position.
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT fiancial advise, i am NOT a financial advisor. Everything expressed in this post and all my posts are just my opinion and for my own educational purposes. When making trades, please do create & follow your own strategies. Make sure you focus on risk management and protect yourselves with stop losses.
Lemonadestock
LMND - Major Area to be watchingHi guys. Lemonade, Inc. has caught my attention with its recent price action. This will be strictly TA based, as thats what im into.
Jumping right in. This analysis is on the Daily Timeframe. Ill probably have more charts up looking at larger timeframes and updating when i see fit for each timeframe.
So on the chart we have:
1. A green box - which is in my opinion a major consolidation area / potential buy zone for long-term investing
2. White lines - Major RESISTANCE lines
3. Orange lines - SUPPORT lines/ levels
The lines are numbered so compare explaination to number system i have
EXPLAINATION
White Resistance lines (numbers here reflect numbers on chart):
1. This is MAJOR MAJOR MACRO RESISTANCE, indicating a downtrend since our HIGHS are January 2021.
2. This was major support turned resistance dating back to March 2022.
We have been last 2-3 weeks battling these 2 major areas. It is a very crucial point in the price action of this asset, ESPECIALLY line #1. If it can confirm above these lines, we have major major trend change and a possibilty that the bottom is in for this.
We have recently however been pushed down from above. Having difficulty in keeping above these lines with major selling pressure.
OBSERVATION: In this recent price action, we had 8 days above this #1 WHite line. Compared to previous history, its the most days we've been above this line, EVER. So my opinion BULLS are fighting real hard to break this BEAR TREND of 2 years.
Orange Support lines (numbers here reflect numbers on chart):
1. Major horizontal support here, some major buying taking place, keeping us above this. Since its a daily candle we need to continue to see how price reacts.
2. Major Support trend line, dating back to December 2022. Currently reacted well, is supported by it.
#1 and 2 orange lines, we have confluence here of major support. This is a good sign atleast for now. We had a nice wick indicating buying from these 2 levels, keeping the recent uptrend from December INTACT.
#3,4,5 are the next support levels to look at, if #1 & 2 break.
If we hit #5 and or the lower aspect of green box (green line), somewhere down the near future. This could indicate a double bottom and is massively bullish.
Anything below green line would be worst case scenario but thats low probabilty fo now. And would only discuss if probabilty increased.
I also added a INDICATOR.
RSI -> So here i have 3 white lines. Keeping it short, we need to keep support on these lines, break above all of them and create new higher highs on RSI and go above the Yellow line or MA to show strength.
If we confirm above White lines #1 & 2, i will most likely enter a long as it could be a nice growth stock to add (in my opinion).
So lets see what happens.
We need to observe this, since we are in this critical time in LMND price action.
Let me know what your opinions are, if you see anything bullish. I'm not a FA guy, so also if theres any positive news i should be watching out for let me know.
Boost, COmment, Follow for more updates on LMND. Check out my other ideas in my profile.
Disclaimer: IDeas expressed here are my opinion. this is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Please trade responsibily, perferably with stop losses. Thanks.
Drink it down!Lemonade
Short Term
We look to Sell at 22.81 (stop at 25.17)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Previous resistance located at 23.00. The medium term bias remains bullish. There is scope for mild upward pressure at the open but we look for selling interest to resist gains.
Our profit targets will be 16.20 and 15.01
Resistance: 23.00 / 30.00 / 60.00
Support: 16.20 / 10.00 / 5.00
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Lemonade Forecast!LMND is oversold - Retest of 50 day EMA - 21 week EMA is expected. This will correspond to the wave 4 target, which also happens to be the top of the channel trendline. We are in a zig-zag corrective structure which means a fifth wave to the downside is expected post retest. We are, nevertheless, in a downtrend channel!
LMND Can this growth stock see ATH again?LMND Daily TF
Analysis
After a steep correction to 58 from ATH in January at 180s... Lmnd is looking primed for a downtrend breakout. The AI driven Insurance company has grown from homeowners & renters insurance to pet insurance and now planning to get into the auto mobile insurance which gives a good outlook for growth in the coming years. The stock price is currently trading under the 20 ema and experiencing quite a bit of price action between 80-100 range the past few months. So its possible we see some range buyers coming near 80 with ER approaching to give LMND a nice run up into next week. Looking to start a position if we can get a dip to 76-80 range or reclaim 90 and hold.
PT: 100+
Key levels
Support: 80.22, 76.09, 68.93
Resistance: 93.62, 99.93, 115.80, 137.10, ath
Ways to Play
1. Shares (short term trade/long term hold)
2. ATM/OTM long call option contracts (2 week+ exp/ 80-90cs)
Lemonade (LMND) When will the drop stop?I'm really excited about the Lemonade company and believe they could provide a real upset in the outdated insurance industry.
The recent price drop seems to have caught people out - but to me seems like a normal retest, their rise has been fairly quick after all and this movement seems healthy for the stock. The Q4 earnings report had nothing sinister or overly negative and I'm bullish!
So when to enter? Well we could see a nice bounce here, if we see a rise as markets open today and then another bounce off the same level I'd be looking to enter. Equally we could continue to drop to the $100 mark and see a similar pattern, I'd be surprised if it dropped any further but the market is pretty volatile right now so caution is required.
This is not financial advice!
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