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EUR/USD gains ground despite French election shockerThe euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%. France has been on a political roller over the past two weeks and the wild ride isn’t over yet. President Macron called a snap election in June after European parliamentary elections saw the far-right make strong gains. Macron gambled that frightened French voters would support his centrist coalition, but things didn't quite work out that way. France went to the polls twice in two weeks and each round of voting brought a stunning result. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party won the most votes and seemed well on its way to becoming the largest party in parliament and perhaps even winning a majority. The second round brought its own surprise, as the left-wing alliance won the most seats, followed by Macron’s centrist alliance, with National Rally placing third. As the dust settles from Sunday’s vote, the political system is in gridlock, with no clear winner. The left-wing alliance fell short of a majority and Macron must now pick a prime minister who will be tasked with forming a government. This could mean a minority government or an unwieldy coalition, either which could usher in a period of instability. Despite the political uncertainty, the financial markets are steady, likely in a sign of relief that fears of a Le Pen majority did not materialize. The French stock market is steady on Monday and the euro has posted gains. It has been a good start to the week, but investors will be keeping close tabs on the fallout from France’s remarkable election. There is support at 1.0797 and 1.0752 1.0884 and 1.0929 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
French election shock: What will FX markets say? France is on the brink of a hung parliament, with the left-wing coalition capturing the most seats in a stunning upset over Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Obviously, the forex markets are closed on the weekend. So will be interesting to see the reaction to these shock election results in France on the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP when the market opens. Regardless of whether the market thinks this turn of events is good for France or the Eurozone as a whole, this might be trumped by its dislike of surprises. The left-wing alliance, projected to win between 180 and 215 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, outpaced President Macron’s liberal bloc, which is forecast to secure 150-180 seats. The far-right National Rally, led by Le Pen, and its allies are anticipated to hold 120-150 seats. Le Pen's National Rally led in the first round of voting last week and aimed to achieve a historic majority. However, strategic voting and alliances among left-wing parties have thwarted her efforts. Le Pen’s ties to Russia, including past opposition to EU sanctions, might have also harmed her campaign. Over the weekend, Le Pen had vowed to cancel permission for Kyiv to use French-supplied long-range weapons against targets in Russia.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD: A good hedge, and a valid tradeI have a powerful signal here, bought breaking yesterday's high today. I had given up on Euro longs, and sold in disgust, which is a strong 'self-contrarian' signal. Whenever it happens, take heed, and act with haste after the market breaks a previous day high or low, since your exit. If you don't take the trade back, you will probably face one of those times when you exit a trade at the bottom, to then see the trade go your way without you...so, why face that irritating feeling? Fade yourself, when we're emotional, we're a reflection of the 'herd'. Fascinating huh? Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
SHORT TRADE ON EUR/GBP Triggering the Article 50 was bullish for the pound as I expected. Three long red candles appear last week and we are now seeing a retracement. Indeed the pair reached the 1.618 level of the first impulse and we might expect a retracement to the 0.382 level of the second impulse. The pair also challenged the 200 EMA and it might pierce it soon. Best level for the short entry is 0.85747 and the stop loss should be placed at the 0.86355 level. The pair is up today because of the lower than expected UK Manufacturing PMI . However I am pretty sure that the BOE will need to react against the rising inflation by raising interest soon. Moreover the election in France is bringing uncertainty to the Eurozone, we should keep an eye on the next debates but keep in mind that the markets will go mad if Marine Le Pen reach the second round. We should hope that she is not elected because that would create a big crisis in the Eurozone. I'm seeing a Macron vs Le Pen face-off for the second round and with his centrist views he might steal the vote from both the left and the right parties. Keep an eye on the trendlines and the big support at the 0.83045 level. Cheers !
Short
by TheMauritianStockTrader
2
EURUSD UncertaintyCurrently, the sentiment of the pair seems to be clearly inclined to a down movement of the price. But we should rather wait until Friday to find out more about what will be the real direction of the pair. Note that the US is strongly considering a hike in interest rate which can cause the USD to grow much stronger. However, the France is currently on crosshead of most European traders. Le pen is one step ahead against his opponent. Her winning the presidential election will be crucial for the Euro and combined with the increase in the FED Interest rate we can almost definitely conclude that the EURUSD pair will undergo a downfall.
Short
by Hizmaylof