BTC long-term: POTENTIAL SCENARIO!!Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities.
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I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice.
#BTC
$BTC is currently trading at the $17400 Level.
As per the chart strong holding support $17200 Level which is good for the Bulls.
The next Resistance is $18400 which is also the retest level of the Last breakdown Support.
I am expecting some Rejection from that level and we can see some more Downside move.
But now we can see some upward movement in short term.
My Resistance levels:- $18400-$19000
Support:- $16500 - $17200
Analysis
- I have taken fractals from the past, 2019, from historical price action that we refer to as an 'echo bubble'.
- According to the fractals, one possible scenario is that we tap $14k, before making a 100% move up to $28k.
- This would be a completely reasonable trajectory to have in mind, considering that we have seen a case for Bitcoin moving from $4k to $14k
- Eventually, we would peak around the summer of 2023, with everyone thinking that the macro bull market has resumed.
- Personally, if this speculative scenario plays out, I would revert back to holding a massive cash position until the dust settles again.
- People, including myself, thought we'd never get back below 20k, and here we are now, with people calling for $7k.
Comment your view in the comment section and stay tuned, I will keep updating BTC in the different time frames.
This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it.
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
Leraningtrading
Sinusoidal movement in channel, GalaIn this post, I am not referring to physics and math equations and probabilities, I'm just saying that the Display method of the probability of a numerical event is between 0 and 1,
and just for easy recall in tutorials, I consider a number between 0 and 100.
0 indicates impossibility and we know that 100 indicates certainty.
Therefore, will explain this price movement detection method in a simple and concise way.
Consider a few general rules:
1- The price chart in a channel always tends to approach and return to the middle line of the channel.
This is true for all types of the uptrend, downtrend, and neutral channels.
2- Sinusoidal movement is dynamic (of course, I mean in the financial market) and the range of movement, speed, and volume can vary.
3- the price chart after hitting the middle line, faces 3 possibilities.
Usually, we consider these possibilities as 33 - 33 - 33 %
3-1- Reversal (pull-back ) to the previous direction.
3-2- Crossing the middle line and moving to hit the other line of the channel.
3-3- The price chart attached to the middle line of the channel continues to move.
(I will publish the third point and its reasons in another post because this one is a complete and long tutorial for himself)
4- usually In uptrend and downtrend channels, the movement angle of 45 degrees is the most appropriate movement angle to create sinusoidal movements (consider between 30 and 50 degrees).
And the 5:
"Keep this last point in mind in all the training you read and learn from different people.
From great masters in financial market analysis to an ordinary person like me "
** No theory, method of analysis, or analysis is ever 100% correct.
In probabilities, we always have the nearest states, which means that when we say 100 for the certainty of occurrence,
A probability may be up to 99.999999, but it is NOT 100%.
So remember that there is always a possibility of a movement or change contrary to our analysis, rules, or imagination, and
"This is one of the main reasons for placing a Stop-loss limit in trading"
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Lets talk prop firms❗Its the buzz words and hot topic of the moment! PROP FIRMS
Before I start on this topic I want confirm I am a funded trader. This post isn't to promote this style of trading or prop firms.
I am writing this post for those who may not understand what a prop firm is and to share my own experiences on the route to being a funded trader.
What is a prop firm?
Proprietary trading is where a firm trades for its own financial gain instead of earning commissions for clients.
What is a prop trader?
A prop trader is someone who uses that firms money to trade with and in exchange receives a wage or a percentage of the profits.
Now those two statements above probably ring more true for those who work for financial institutes on trading floors all around the world.
The propriety trading firms I want to talk about are the retail prop firms that usually for a subscription or a challenge fee will allow you as a trader to trade funds provided by them.
Any profits you make on that account you as the trader will receive a share of the profits. Usually 70-80%.
The business model has drawn a lot attention some good and some bad.
So this seems a good starting point to discuss what we know of the business model.
To become a funded trader with these companies you must either pay a subscription or take a challenge.
You rules and conditions of which you have to abide by in order to gain and keep funded accounts.
Subscriptions model
This route to prop funding tends to be a monthly reoccurring payment. You are then given an account to trade with stipulations attached.
For the subscription model the rules on the account tend to be very tight/strict and the fee can be quiet hefty.
Challenge model
This route to funding is where the trader pays an entry fee in to a challenge to prove their trading credentials.
The trade will be set targets to meet over one or two phases in order to secure funding.
The account will have rules and stipulations applied for example 10% overall draw down.
If funding is secured then most companies refund the entry fee and you then as a funded trader earns money of any profits made on your funded account.
So that's the options to becoming a funded trader.
The retail prop firm business model has been criticised because some of these funded accounts are demo accounts once gained.
Some say these companies only make money off failures and that's why even their funded traders who have passed are only ever trading demo accounts.
Some prop firms on completion of challenges give you real accounts. But do we truly know they are real or does it just say real?
A prop firm most definitely makes money from failed challenge attempts as part of it's business model. No one will ever know for real if they copy trade their top funded traders either.
But in my opinion they would be daft not to copy trade consistent performers that take payouts of these firms every month because they exists.
Prop trading pros and cons.
Their is pro and cons to any choice in life and prop trading is no exception.
I'll cover my personal pro and cons to the prop world below.
PROS
-For traders who are consistent and proven but only have small capital available, Prop trading is a good route to potentially larger trading pots.
-Most prop firms have scaling plans
-Prop firm gives trader the opportunity to funding most would never of got if they didn't exists. Most would never get an the opportunity to trade for a big institute. Prop firms bridge that gap.
-Given the amount of firms popping up a consistent trader could soon find themselves with a diverse portfolio of accounts giving some life changing chances and monthly profit opportunity.
-Most prop firms have favourable commissions and spreads with some having no commissions what so ever.
-Reduced personal risk . Worse case scenario for a funded trader is losing the account rather than massive personal losses.
CONS
-Even when funded you have to adhere to rules and terms of the prop firm
-You could spend big money getting traded
-The health of the prop firm you trade for is unknown and one prop firm has already dis-appeared.
-In reality the targets set are gain the funded account is quiet high at 8-10% in 30 calendar days.
-Violation of rules ends in account loss.
Summary
I can only speak of the journey I have taken myself.
For me the pros out weighed the cons when it came to seeking funding via these prop firms and the opportunities they offer.
I personally don't mind paying a fee to enter challenges as you need some emotional attachment to the challenge in order for you to play your best trading game.
If these were free to enter then everyone would just go big and all out to get funded then would do exact same if managing to get funded. That would be sustainable for no one.
That's not what trading is about it's about risk management and emotional control which helps lead to consistent trading results.
For a 100k challenge most prop firms charge between £400-£500 that is still a fair amount of money for anyone and you should be treating it as a serious venture if your not then you are simply gambling.
Funded accounts being a demo account hasn't bothered me. I get paid when I'm in profit and that's all that matters.
Spreading accounts over different prop firms lowers risk and exposure to losing all your funded accounts.
One well known firm has gone and thankfully I wasn't with them but aiming for a few accounts with different firms lowers risk of finding yourself funded one minute then not the next.
Are they a scam? In ever growing market place bad apples will be operating in the sector.
As traders you have to do own research but plenty have been round for a while now with good reviews to boot.
Trading in general is hard and gaining 8-10% in one month to pass then doing 5% the following is no easy feat.
Get a game plan and strategy together, back test and forward test the live out of it and when consistency is there only then is it worth attempting funding challenges.
Love them or hate them prop firms are here and making some noise.
They offer opportunity a plenty but they do come with mystique attached.
You as a trader and an individual have to judge if they are for you or not.
Simple way I looked at the opportunity
1 Funded 200k account
3% profit per month = $6000
80% profit split= $4800
GBP= £3478
Approx equivalent to 57k GBP a year!
Freedom can be closer than you think.
Thanks for taking time to read my idea
Darren.