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META: downtrend continuation or reversal?META is down almost 60% in the last year and it looks like there are two possible outcomes from here. Bullish scenario: The current pattern is generally bullish and typically anticipates a significant trend reversal. The Sentiment Index indicator shows a weakening in the Bearish Sentiment which could indicate that a more bullish sentiment could come next. Bearish scenario: The price is currently pushed down by two major resistances and any bull attempt must be able to break up both. A breakdown of the Bearish Sentiment trendline (blue trendline at the bottom) would indicate a strong trend continuation to the downside. Given the overall market condition, it is likely that META will move according to the macro-environment, however, the two scenarios above outline what to look for. Remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
NASDAQ:META
by a.b
#ES Futures 06.15.22 Daily Plan with LevelsFED Day! What will the market give us today? Yday we were not able to hold our Key Support of 3764.75-3760.50 as we expected because we were under T+2 low and had people trapped from Globex session above, we were able to get below and accept in lower range and we got the test of lower levels down to our next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and as mentioned we needed extra juice to get through that level and since it was almost towards the end of the day when we got there I did not expect much continuation, I did not expect that good of response from there right away either so I didnt trade it but we got what we got. I spent my day shorting from 65-60 area and had myself a great day. Today can be very tricky to trade as all FED days are because lots of eyes are watching and waiting, currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside T+2 range and seems like cleaning out sellers from above our 3764.75-3760.50 level. We have Retail Sales 8:30 and FOMC starting at 2, Key today is to manage expectations and not expect big moves until they prove themselves. - Supports Today: 3747.50-3744.75 is our PM Support and the area of Yday close which will be important and current Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 as well as T+2 low - Resistance Today: 3780.50-3776.75 is our current PM Resistance then 3791.75-3787.75 and our Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 also our T+2 high area for today (from RTH not including Globex) is right at our 3825.50-3820.25 level. > On The Upside continuing to hold above PM Support is a sign of strength, our position is currently under us below 3764.75-3760.50 level which if holds today can give us a test of higher levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 if we get through those I will be watching next Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25 which is Prev Day Globex high area, watching for us to take it and hold or take it and come back in or fail to take. We should still have sellers in the market and I do see us testing the lower Key levels again at some point, will it be today or not we will have to see but I am managing my expectations to the upside until those levels start getting taken out and we hold over. > On The Downside getting back under 3764.75-3760.50 will be our first signs of weakness and breaking our PM support will be a better downside confirm for me, if this happens im looking for a test of 3728.75-3725.25, Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and possibly a break of that to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and possibly next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 to be tested. As Mentioned Fed days are tricky and we can even see both scenarios play out with them running it up to sell their position from below and then dropping the bid or going lower first trapping more people short to give them a push higher. Have to be patient and watch levels for breaks and continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures Daily Overview with Levels to Watch 06.14.22Yday we saw Key Support area of 3764.75-3760.50 hold on the first test, we did make another attempt at it before close and were able to reach next level down so we found acceptance in that lower range. At the close wholesale took in the supply under 3764.75 and used Globex to drive it up and sell higher, Globex inventory was mostly long all night until we found sellers at our Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25 and now we corrected it back to the close. Currently we are holding this 3764.75-3760.50 Key Support area and waiting for PPI release at 8:30. Looks like we are again set to open today under T+2 Low which is all the way back at 3896 so I would be very surprised if we dont see more selling today and at least test the lower levels down to 3714.75-3709.75 and maybe lower if we have enough sell volume. We had two days of big moves so set ups might require patients today. - On The Upside continuing to hold this support at 3764.75-3760.50 can give us another push and test of 3780.50-3776.75 and maybe 3791.75-3787.75 those will be the areas to watch for continuation higher and of course to get any real move out towards that gap we would need to see us get through Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25. - On The Downside we now have globex inventory built up in this 3809.50-3760.50 range and if we do break below and accept in the lower range then our levels to the downside are 3741.50-3744.75, 3728.75-3725.25 and next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75. If we have enough juice today we can see us take that and if we do then we will watch lower areas for response at 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 are the areas we can see response and next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
#ES Futures Day Trading Overview and Levels to Watch 06.13.22Last night before the Globex open I posted weekly overview with important levels to watch and that most likely we will get more downside being we are under the Supply and buyers in the area where we closed Friday might not be as responsive this time around. 3880-72 was our area to watch to the downside, Globex opened on a gap down and right in that area which gave us a sell to the downside pretty much all night with few pull backs. Looks like so far this morning we found some support at 3811-3804.50 level, our inventory is currently 100% short from Friday close which means there is 60-70% chance we might get some correction to it at the open, how much we will have to see unless we correct before and at the open continue lower, holding that 3811-3804.50 level can give us a test of 3821.25, 3835.50 and possibly 3853.25-3847.25 which will be our Key area to watch if we are to get any more upside from there. On the downside if we fail to get through 3821.25 - 3835.50 or we correct to those levels and come back down to break 3811-3804.05 then we will be looking at lower levels at 3791.50-3776.75 and possibly 3764.75-3758.5 which will be lower Key Support we would need to break to see any continuation lower, if we are going down on big volume and breaking through levels then we can see even lower areas tested, I wanted to see the mid point of the daily range tested this week around 3731-3676.50 but I did not think we might get close to there in Globex so we might get continuation in RTH or we might spend the day cleaning the Globex move and get ready for bigger market moving events this week. If 3764.75-3758.25 breaks we have 3745, 3728 and 3714.75-3709.75 as next Key Support. Careful with longs, we will get pull backs and corrections but we have a lot of people upside down and most likely will see more margin call selling today.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
SPY week in reviewLearning to see, trust, & execute the Intraday System Levels are the key to successful day trading. Position Size, Risk Management, and Intraday Strategies are your critical weapons. Knowing WHEN & HOW to deploy capital is essential which is why we deploy our Daily Matrix System to help us determine if we should be selling Credit Spreads, buying Debit Spreads, playing Long Options, using shares, or trading a combination of each & Hedging. This review is step-by-step using our Intraday Volatility Levels and works with $SPY $SPX $ES $ES_F $QQQ $IWM $BTC (and any other individual stock symbol) MON (June 6)- SPY opened with a GAP UP, quickly attacked the GREEN BUY TRIGGER and immediately hit our SUPPLY ZONE / R1 (WHITE LEVEL). Fundamentally you take 50% of your profits here...GET RISK OUT OF THE TRADE!! Stop Loss should have been at your entry or higher on the remaining 1/2. 1100 hours price action stalled and sold off back under the OVER/UNDER (not displayed on this chart) and immediately moved down below the RED SELL TRIGGER and to DEMAND / S1 (WHITE LEVEL) & accomplished SELL TGT #1. Again, take 1/2 off your short profits at WHITE, and either 1/4 or close the trade at the 1st TARGET. If you left some short runners on, you were rewarded with a huge 1200 hrs drop down to SELL TGT #2. Remainder of Monday's PM session chopped between S1 and S3 and ultimately filled the opening gap from Friday. TUES (June 7)- SPY opened GAP DOWN, but rallied from the opening print, achieving the GREEN BUY TRIGGER early and we called Low of Day (LoD) was in by 0945am. Again, 1/2 off at WHITE SUPPLY ZONE, & we achieved BUT TGT #1 in the first hour of trading. Europe close at 1130 gave some an additional long entry, and the move over R2 opened the BUY TGT #2 door (from 413.80 to 416.05) which was a huge move but failed to peak above Monday's HoD (ominous for the remainder of the week). WED (June 8)- SPY opened GAP DOWN from Tuesday's late run, but the VOL LEVELS had us with a RED MINDSIGHT (under RED SELL TRIGGER) almost the entire day. SELL TARGETS #1, #2,& #3 were hit and the entire afternoon session was between SELL TGTS #2 & #3. THURS (June 9)- SPY opened GAP DOWN (again) but the Levels were paining a RANGE DAY with price action likely staying inside the WHITE SUPPLY/DEMAND ZONES. RANGE DAY RULES applied until 1400, at which time SPY moved under the DEMAND/S1 Zone and we all know what happened from there...SELL TGT #1, #2, #3, & #4 were hit and we closed at the LoD. Expect more pressure overnight FRI (June 10)- SPY opened GAP DOWN and only got a wick above the GREEN BUY TRIGGER. NO CLOSE == NO TRADE, so yet again more sell side activity under the 395 level (which was the $SPY OVER/UNDER for the day). Opening Range Breakout (ORB) to the downside, SELL Targets #1 & #2 were hit before 1130am, and SPY expressed range/chop price action until the 1330hrs move back over S2 and push all the way back to the RED SELL TRIGGER at 394.37 before selling back off in Power Hour
AMEX:SPY
by VeteranWS
#ES Futures 06.10.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYday we were waiting to see if we will have enough supply to break T+2 Low and Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, move took quite a while to get going as we still had plenty of buyers to fill at the support area, to be honest I already started to think it wont happen so missed the whole ride down but we did break support and sold off right under our next Key Support of 4030.75-4025.25, ideally I wanted to see upper levels hold and not reach this support if we were to make a move back out today but that did not happen and it does make sense as we had 7+ Days of inventory built up in that range. So far we flushed and took back the whole move that was done on lower volume before Memorial day which tells us that we ran the price up to sell the product that was acquired lower. Question today is do we continue to head lower since we are set to open below T+2 low and should still have plenty of inventory above to get some Margin call selling or will we find support here and get back over 4030.75-4025.25 to get back to the area where we sold off from. Currently Globex inventory is short and built up below our Key Level and waiting for CPI to move. On The Upside today if we get back over 4030.75-4025.25 and can hold that area it tells us that yesterday sell off was just built up inventory coming out and we could see it rotate back up towards 4046-4042.25, 4061.50-4056.50 and possible to reach and test that Key level of 4084.50-4077.25 to see if sellers are still there, our T+2 low is 4105 and we expect selling from below that area so have to monitor each level for continuation. On the downside failure to get over the Key Level and hold can bring us lower to 4012.50-4008.75, 3994.50-3988.75 and next Key Support at 3976.50-3971.50 if going down with good volume and we break that support then we can head lower to 3957.25-3953.25, 3944.25-3940.25 and 3931.75-3927.25 as we do have plenty of supply built up above and we will be looking for buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.09.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYesterday played out pretty much as first expected, was able to actually call the high and the low within a few points as mentioned I thought we might stay in tighter range between 4157 and our 4103-4099.75 level and we did. Today Globex attempted to break out of our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and failed which trapped a lot of people, with that fail I will be looking for us to test the opposite side of this range and our Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 I believe we should have enough supply to take it out but then we have to monitor how much extension we get and if we accept or come back in. On the downside if we get under 4103.25-4099.75 we can see Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 and lower levels that I would like to see hold are 4061.50-4056.50 and especially 4046-4042.25, ideally if we will have a fail and come back in we will not break both of those but if we do we have next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25 to keep in mind. On the upside if we again cant take Key Support which is also our T+2 low for the day then we can see rotation back up or what I will be watching for is a flush of that area and see if we can find buyers at lower levels that will bring us back into this range and that would confirm for me that most likely we are out of supply and can see higher levels of 4103.25-4099.75, 4123.75-4119.25 and Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and if that does happen today or tomorrow then we can see a run from the Key Resistance up to the next one at 4220. Have to manage expectations as we are still in tight range but today we already seen the signs of it breaking.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.08.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday I was short biased and thought we will have enough supply to flush Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 but I did mention that if we do no break support and reach next level down then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25, because of the short bias I did not think we will get back to Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and extend to next level up but I have been telling myself that we are in this 4170-4070 range since last week and will be that way until we see clear moves out with continuation. So far we are tightening up the range/coiling up looks like for next move out, we are getting lower highs and higher lows with tighter ranges since 27th which tells me we are just spending time cleaning up still and filling orders. Today we have our inventory long above our Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 but also short from yesterdays close. Tricky spot here, we can see another day of tighter range if we do it should be between 4157 area below our 4168-4162.25 level and around our 4103.75-4099.75 area maybe 4090ish. Of course we watch level by level for order flow at those levels to see if we have enough to break and keep going or not so have to keep all possibilities open. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 can give us 4168-4162.25 that is our T+2 high and if we break it and extend then can see more buy ins and upper levels are 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance at 4020-4214.75 but T+2 high is important reference that must break in order to see continuation up. On the downside if we get under 4143.75-4137.50 then we can see 4123.75-4119.25 and 4103.25-4099.75 which is also our T+2 Low area that we will need to see break in order to get a chance at Key Support of 4084.50-4077.25 and lower levels, with T+2 High and T+2 Low being at the very spots we think that we might stall and tighten is another reason I think we might have a smaller range day again and tighten up more. Of any of those references break with volume then its a good sign for continuation because we have a week worth of inventory built up already, but might not happen until Thursday/Friday as we said we don't have any market moving events till then. Days like last few weeks its very important to not over trade and manage expectations in the trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.07.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYday we tried to extend out of our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and as mentioned pre market holding above that level should give us a test of 4168-4162.25 BUT reaching T+2 high at 4179 was the what we were looking at for continuation higher which we failed to do and came back in under our Key Resistance which was the first sign of weakness, we did sell off from Key Resistance but we only had enough supply to reach and break 4123.75-4119.25 level and inability to get to 4103.25-4099.75 told me that we will not test the lows at that time. For Globex I was looking to see if we can down in this area and get under T+2 low at 4096 and we did which tells me we have supply and we are under T+2 low so we can expect some more selling, how much is the question. Today if we get under Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 then that can give us a test of lower levels, a lot of people will be looking for a big break down from here but I will be cautious because the position is still below us and we are still inside the range from the 27th that is sign of strength to me so I will be monitoring lower levels for response if we do break support and head lower, on the downside we have 4061.50-4056.50 and 4046-4042.25 where I do want to see us hold ideally, if going down big volume then can also reach next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25. So far market is still in balance in our 4170-4160 range but we should have enough supply built up to flush the Key Support and see how much comes out. On the upside if we do not break Key Support and reach next level down at 4061.50-4056.50 then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25 where we should see sell response or if we break support and come back in with volume. As stated in Sunday weekly overview I would like us to flush this 4084.50-4077.25 level and then come back into this range for better confirm, will it all happen today or happen at all we will have to see in RTH. 4143.75-4137.50 has been my Key Resistance and 4084.50-4077.25 Key Support for a week now and it will stay so until we break and reach next Key Levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.06.22 Overview and Levels to Watch for the DayFriday we got a close in the middle of our 4143-4077 range, Globex failed to continue lower and break 4103.25-4099.75 level and reach Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 instead we got a push over our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50. Question today is do we hold above our Key Resistance and get continuation higher or do we come back in? We are currently inside our T+2 Range and inventory is long from Fridays Close, do we see a correction to the inventory or will this move hold and keep going. I am more on the cautious side today but failure to reach lower levels is a sign of strength and if we did clean out all the sellers above then could see a continuation today. On the upside holding above Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 could give us a test of 4168-4162.25 then will be watching if we can reach T+2 high at 4179 if that goes and we get through 4191-4185.50 then we can see our next Key Resistance tested at 4220-4214.75 and maybe levels above but T+2 High area will be the tell if we get there. On the Downside getting back under 4143.75-4137.50 is our first sign of weakness and can give us a test of 4123.75-4119.25, 4103.25-4099.75 and always possible to see a run at T+2 low and key Support area of 4084.50-4077.25. Overall still seeing indecision and market doesn't feel clean for a move out yet but keeping it open and just monitoring for continuation at the levels to see if we accept or not.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.03.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYday we opened up right under T+2 and got some selling pressure right into the Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, support held and we saw a rotation back towards the Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and we were able to break out and hold above it for continuation move to higher levels. In Globex so far we failed at our 4191-4185.50 level and failed to extend and reach the next Key Resistance at 4220-4214.75 and now came back to the previous range resistance and back into T+2 range for today. Question today is do we accept in this range and get another attempt at next Key Resistance or did we sell all the inventory from below in that run up and will come back into previous range to find buyers. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 is a sign of strength and can give us another test of 4168-4162.25, 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance area of 4220-4214.75 and if enough buying comes in the higher levels up to 4234.75-4229.25, 4252.50-4247.50 But have to show signs of strength and get back over T+2 high which is 4165 area. On the downside holding below T+2 high and if we get back under 4143.75-4137.50 then we have some single prints to fill and can test T+2 half back, if enough selling pressure can even bring us down all the way back to Key Support, levels to watch for buyers on the downside are 4123.75-4119.25, 4103.25-4099.75 and Key Support that we had for few days now is 4084.50-4077.25, ideally for us to see a move higher today we dont want it getting under 4123.75-4119.25 but have to give it time and show which way it wants to go.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
BTC markov method follow-up, initial pt reachedThis worked out scary well... I'd need a bigger sampe to confirm the method is consistent, but examine the following dynamics of the BTC movement through this "matrix" built around the initial symmetrical channel: - 31616.3 was my target last week when it was 28k merely because that level marked the upper bound (top point of local diamond) of the next most probable state - i.e. at the time of last analysis the most likely neigborhood of an adjacent state of 4 sections (individual boxes) had an upperbound at the 3161.3 level. - In general BTCUSD has been respecting each state like clockwork - this means when it gets near upper-bound of state it pulls back to lower bound of state and vice versa. The probability of the next state given the current state is based on the probabilities of the stochastic matrix, but one cn actually eyeball the tendency of yellow path (I call this the "yellow brick road" because it leads to the emerald city lol, i.e. new highs to around 83k by end of year; if it strays from the yellow brick road t risks meeting the wicked witch of the west, aka danger, aka risk to 13-23k to establish a bottom if we don't breakout of the markov grid (breakout would be around 34k-41k. So... the tendecy of the yellow path is like a connect 4 mid-point creek that moves +- 1 units in alternating (typically) fashion, every now and then going 2 up after a 1 down which gives it the updward drift pushing toward breakout. The reason there are intermittent consecutive ups with +2 and not +3, +4, +5,... within the +-1 pattern is because to go +2 in the time period for each state (which is constant) is still approximately linear, however after +2 it becomes non-linear - specifically expanding geometric with limit as n approaches infinity becoming exponential... The stochastic matrix is by design a system of linear equations so when a +2 and especially +3 occurs there is a bifurcation in the probability outputs (they go haywire) that signals this +3 or more w.r.t path is truly a change in structure ~ NOW THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: during the move off last weeks lows there was a break of structure (or at least break of expected path defining structure)... it moved up for 2 consecutive states and then "jumped" up a 3rd consecutive state (the mechanics of what this means are in the above point. The interpretation of what this means is more clear; the prediction of near-term price action now becomes more complex but at the same time it confirms that volatility will escalate and that makes it a traders market again which we all should love. See below for Interpretation and Prediction: Interpretation : I mentioned last week that the rate of state transitions was starting to accelerate around the chopzone at 28-30k and because of that the probability of next state being higher with upper bound (and therefore initial target) of 31616.3 was a lot closer to 1 than 0 (previously the transition probabilities had been around 74-78%, the initial shift took the probability to 88. Now the rate that the shift is accelerating has increased substantially and, thus, forced the path structure to a non-linear system. The question now becomes, (a) will it remain non-linear (a way to evaluate at a non-linear level via approximation will be to redefine the size of a state to be proportional with the degree of the non-linear form (e.g. quadratic (which is where it is currently would require a neighborhood of 8 (2 x 4) sections to capture the implied range)... if not (a) then it would likely exhibit properties similar to when an asset goes parabolic and then breaks down when the movement becomes unstable - in our case it would imply a sharp pullback to around 29-30k (equal but opposite to the non-linear degree realized by the movement to local maximum state) and that would ultimately reset back to the linear path (i.e. back into the sideways consolidation). b) is the bifurcation to non-linear path necessary to initiate the breakout from consolidation (rather than an anomaly that reverts back to linear base). (b) is the most plausible if it establishes new support here at the 31616.3. We are about to see moment of truth at this very moment and I have mapped out how to play both of the 2 possibilities: PREDICTION: - If 31616.3 can hold here as support, expect next leg up to attempt breakout around 34k-37k (has 41k old support above that to deal with ut were not there yet - if this doesn't hold it will test support around 30.8k, which if that fails expect the reset-to-linear scenario back down to the 28-30k range. - A third possibility (c) is that it over-corrects from the bifurcation in structure and goes from non-linear at degree +2-+3 into a non-linear -2 to -3 (which could take it to 23k-13k. Either way... we're not in Kansas anymore don't expect the boring sideways price action recently to continue from here. I'll update on which scenario has higher probability given condition around if it holds 31616.3. ~Best Knocksville Johnny
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders