Bearish Divergence on Weekly TF but..Bearish Divergence on Weekly TF.
However, Breakout on Daily TF from 452 - 453.
Weekly Closing above this level would
be a positive sign.
Upside Targets can be around 495 - 500
& if this level is Sustained, with Good
Volumes , we may witness 540 - 550.
Should not break 400, otherwise, we may see
heavy Selling pressure.
Levelsandzones
S&P500 Next Key Levels I will be waiting to see if we get some short term buying before continuing down to $5,200 levels.
Waiting for price to reach the $5,800 area and anticipating a strong rejection to continue the bearish trend.
After confirmation of the rejection, I will be looking for simple lower lows, lower highs before entering a sell, preferably around the $5,600 mark.
What are your thoughts on the AMEX:SPY and the THINKMARKETS:USDINDEX in general?
Short setup on SPX (x2)After the most recent upward move, the SPX shows clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup.
Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving upward and it's now near its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend.
This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration.
Three additional signs support this setup:
The RSI Exhaustion shows recent bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely.
The price has formed a top just shy of its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator.
A major level has formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level turned into support, it originated as resistance and could well revert back to it should be price start to drop further.
Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
Play on Levels124 - 124.50 Very Important Support on Monthly Basis.
Bearish Divergence on Weekly TF that is why it pushed the
price downwards.
Now Hidden Bullish Divergence & Bullish Divergence on Hourly
TF has triggered the price up. Bullish Momentum will resume
once 146 is Crossed & Sustained. Now it is Important to Sustain 134
on Monthly TF & if 165 is Crossed & Sustained, Next Target
can be around 190+
On Daily TF, 134 - 135 is a Resistance. Crossing it will
touch the price around 138-139
Key Levels & Trading Plan for the Current Market Trend1. Identified Key Levels
Type Price Level (Approx.) Significance
Major Resistance 22,700 - 22,800 Previous support turned resistance; strong rejection possible.
Minor Resistance 22,400 - 22,500 Short-term bounce zone; potential sell-off area.
Current Price Zone 22,100 - 22,200 Market hovering near key support; decision point.
First Major Support 21,800 - 21,900 Next critical level; breakdown could accelerate selling.
Second Major Support 21,500 - 21,600 Deeper demand zone; last line of defense before more downside.
2. Trading Strategies Based on Key Levels
Bearish Continuation Trade (Higher Probability)
• Entry: Look for a pullback to 22,400 - 22,500 for short positions.
• Stop-Loss: Above 22,700 to avoid getting trapped in a fakeout.
• Take-Profit 1: 21,900 - 22,000 (First major support).
• Take-Profit 2: 21,500 (Next strong support).
Bullish Relief Rally (Lower Probability)
• Entry: If price forms a bullish engulfing candle + high volume around 21,800 - 22,000.
• Stop-Loss: Below 21,600 to limit downside risk.
• Take-Profit 1: 22,400 - 22,500 (Short-term bounce area).
• Take-Profit 2: 22,700 (Stronger resistance).
3. Risk Management & Confirmation Signals
• Bearish Confirmation:
• Price rejection at resistance (22,400-22,500).
• Low bullish volume on pullbacks.
• Large red candles breaking support.
• Bullish Confirmation:
• Strong reversal candle at key support.
• Increase in buying volume.
• Break above 22,400 with momentum.
Final Outlook
• Primary Bias: Bearish → Look for short opportunities on pullbacks.
• Secondary Bias: Bullish only if price shows strong reversal near 21,800 - 21,900.
HEY SPYLOVERS ! Here is a Video Analysis on SPY (Price & Levels)Very strong movements and levels that we need to closely monitor, as we are entering a bearish market. We must exercise great caution during this decline and ensure that the price does not exceed the mentioned levels; otherwise, it will be cause for concern.
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY SPYLOVERS !!!Two weeks ago, I projected some very common behaviors that candles exhibit after a long rally. If you compare the two types of candles I marked on the left-hand side, notice how candle models "A" and "B" have very different body structures. Candles "A" have a more volumetric medium-sized body, which indicates strength. However, we are not exempt from their natural pullback, which, to complete one trend cycle, broke the structure itself upward.
Candles "B" are smaller than Candles "A," allowing us to distinguish the significant weakness in the uptrend. The price starts to lose momentum, and consequently, we can expect it to take a pause before falling.
After projecting the two scenarios where SPY was positioned two weeks ago, we were able to predict both future movements correctly:
When the price reached historical highs, it paused or consolidated, showing descending candles (see the magenta arrow). Later, a volumetric candle confirmed the drop.
Within the two scenarios, I marked two possible levels where the price would fall. The rebound occurred correctly at the second level, a historical resting zone where the price has been since October.
This analysis is entirely based on price action and historical zones. It's essential to stay alert to institutional and liquidity zones to ensure the most accurate analysis possible.
Now we are in the final week of the year, and historically, markets tend to react bullishly. But the question is: Will it be different this time?
In my opinion: I believe the price can reach new historical highs, as it is demonstrating with strong bullish pressure candles.
At this moment, I think we are at a good support level located at the previous resistance of our entire bullish channel. I believe the price will re-enter the channel and resume the sequence it has been following within the overall bullish structure.
This concludes my analysis of SPY for now. Let's see what the next few days bring as we continue monitoring the market.
If you'd like to see this analysis in English, follow me on TradingView under the username: rockermike111.
Wishing you an excellent 2025 filled with great news and continued growth in your market studies! May your learning progress year after year!
Sending you a big hug and wishing you a Happy 2025!
TRADE SAFE!
Its OK as longest google stays above 170 ! lets go ! Last week, Google stayed above 170, which is excellent news. Within the analysis, we can see that it’s starting to show bullish convergence. I also drew an ascending channel based on its recent price movements.
In my last analysis of Google, I mentioned that once the price touched the "stacked channel," we only needed to observe the immediate candlestick structure, and from there, it would take off—and that’s exactly what happened (check out the little thumbs-up hand).
Now, it doesn’t matter if the price dips slightly here; the key is for it to stay above 170 and within the mini ascending channel I marked.
The real challenge for Google is breaking through the inflection zone where it’s currently positioned. It was rejected once, so the price will likely attempt to break through this key zone again.
Let’s see what happens in the coming days.
Thanks for supporting my channel! Best regards.
Hey Spy Lovers check this Candlestick Scenarios for future move I suspect it’s time for a good pullback. As we can see, the price continues to fluctuate within the ascending channel, but there are two scenarios I anticipate where a pullback might occur in the coming days.
Note: Every pullback is simply a very natural price movement. This does not mean that we are in a bearish market at the moment. If the overall structure is bullish, pullbacks are just part of the cyclical nature of price movement. Here are two potential scenarios in case the price decides to make this natural pullback:
Scenario 1:
If you compare the two types of candles I marked on the left, notice how the candle patterns have more volumetric, medium-sized bodies than the other. This indicates strength; however, we are not exempt from a natural pullback, which, to complete a trending cycle, broke the structure itself to the upside.
Scenario 2:
Let’s assume the price becomes quite exhausted and begins the pullback I am anticipating. I have marked two zones of great importance where the price will most likely rebound:
First Pullback Zone (equivalent to a block order):
Notice how, coincidentally, this zone touches the support of my ascending channel. Coincidence?
Second Rest or Pause Zone:
This zone must be considered because if there is a structural break, the price may drop lower to this point.
Note: The overall structure remains bullish unless a lower structure or demand zone is broken, Until then, we can only consider pullbacks and impulses as part of the price cycle in its upward movement.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE!
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 FuturesThis analysis highlights key Support zones for intraday trading, based on the provided chart.
Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 has reached its all-time highs, meaning there are currently no technical resistances above the current levels. However, we can identify some support zones where the price might bounce or reverse.
Considerations
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Tata Motors (Daily Timeframe) AnalysisChart Pattern & Trend:
Primary Trend: The stock previously followed a rising channel pattern, peaking near ₹1,176.50. After breaking the channel's lower boundary, it entered a significant downtrend.
Current Trend: Bearish, as the stock has consistently been making lower highs and lower lows.
Fibonacci Levels:
The Fibonacci retracement tool highlights key levels:
61.8% Level (₹880.35): This level acted as a minor support before breaking down.
50% Level (₹788.85): The stock is hovering around this level, attempting to stabilize.
38.2% Level (₹697.40): If the downtrend continues, this could be the next key support.
23.6% Level (₹584.20): A deeper correction might test this level in a prolonged bearish scenario.
Volume Analysis:
Declining volumes suggest weakening momentum on the downside.
A volume spike at key support levels could indicate buying interest.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is in the oversold zone or nearing it, indicating potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: ₹880 (61.8% Fibonacci) and ₹900 are immediate resistance zones.
Support: ₹788 (current level) and ₹697 (38.2% Fibonacci) are critical supports.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Reversal: A breakout above ₹880 with increasing volumes could signal the beginning of a recovery.
Continued Bearishness: A breakdown below ₹788 could lead the stock toward ₹697 and ₹584.
Trading Strategy:
For Long Positions: Look for reversal patterns around ₹788 or ₹697, supported by RSI divergence and volume confirmation.
For Short Positions: Consider selling near resistance levels like ₹880 with a stop-loss above ₹900.
Aarti Drugs - Key Levels to WatchAarti Drugs - Key Levels to Watch 🔍
Aarti Drugs has shown some recovery after restoring production at its Tarapur unit, as per recent filings. Here’s the technical outlook:
1.Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Resistance at 0.618 (₹593) and 0.5 (₹676).
Immediate support near 0.786 (₹476).
2.Volume Profile:
High activity seen between ₹450-₹500. Sustained support in this zone is crucial.
3.RSI:
Current RSI shows a slight bullish divergence—monitor for a potential rebound.
Levels of Interest:
Upside Potential: ₹593 (618 Fib) and ₹676 (0.5 Fib).
Downside Support: ₹476 (786 Fib) and ₹450 (volume support zone).
Stay cautious as the stock consolidates. Monitor for clear directional moves above or below these levels.
Google / Waiting for the earnings reportGoogle refuses to break out of the 'stacked channel,' that channel where the candles are tightly packed side by side. It’s a bit frustrating that the price isn’t making any move or decision, but all we can do now is wait for the big earnings report day for the price to decide its direction.
Stay tuned on Tuesday, the 29th, after the market close!
Best Regards
Gold Buy or SellThis week we had alot of ATH's (All time high's back to back
Technically as Gold was in Bullish trend so we hace witnessed these also due to geopolitical tension we have seen these New ATH as investors have invested in gold now we are expecting a drop as tension in middle is losen up and drop can be seen in near times
We have a level over 2749-52 level which is fibonachi extension level so we are bullish over gold but a bearish move can be seen after 2749- 52 resistance level if we witness a rejection over there
Natural Gas Trading: Strategies Around Key Levels 15-10-2024Navigating Natural Gas Trading: Strategies Around Key Levels
Natural gas trading can be both exciting and challenging, especially when you have clear reference points like your mid-point and upper/lower levels. In this blog, we'll explore strategies to navigate the current market with a mid-point of 208.50, an upper level of 209.90, and a lower level of 207.10.
Understanding the Key Levels
Mid-Point (208.50): This serves as the equilibrium level in the market. Prices often oscillate around this point, making it a significant area to watch for potential trades.
Upper Level (209.90): This is your resistance level. If prices approach this point, it may indicate an opportunity to go short, anticipating a reversal.
Lower Level (207.10): This serves as your support level. If prices test this area, consider going long, expecting a bounce back.
Trading Strategy
1. Price Action Analysis
Before making any trades, observe the price action around these levels. Watch for candlestick patterns, volume spikes, and other indicators that suggest market sentiment.
If Price Approaches 209.90: Look for signs of resistance. A reversal pattern (like a double top or shooting star) may suggest that the price is likely to drop. Consider placing a short trade with a stop-loss above this level.
If Price Approaches 207.10: Watch for bullish signals. A strong bullish candlestick or a reversal pattern could indicate that the price will bounce back. In this case, consider a long position with a stop-loss just below this level.
2. Risk Management
Always prioritize risk management. Set your stop-loss orders based on your risk tolerance. For example, if you're trading near the upper or lower levels, consider setting your stop-loss a few ticks outside these levels to avoid getting stopped out by minor fluctuations.
3. Monitoring Market Conditions
Natural gas prices can be highly influenced by external factors like weather, supply reports, and geopolitical events. Stay updated on relevant news and reports to make informed trading decisions.
Conclusion
Trading natural gas around key levels requires a solid understanding of price action and market sentiment. By using your mid-point, upper, and lower levels strategically, you can identify potential trade opportunities. Remember to incorporate risk management to protect your capital. Whether the price moves towards the upper level or the lower level, having a plan in place will help you navigate the market with confidence.
Dear Traders,
As you navigate the dynamic world of trading, it’s crucial to remain vigilant about the financial risks involved. Here are key considerations to keep in mind:
Market Volatility: Financial markets, including natural gas, can be highly volatile. Prices can change rapidly due to unexpected news or economic data. Always be prepared for sudden fluctuations.
Leverage Risks: Trading with leverage can amplify both gains and losses. While it allows for larger positions, it also increases the risk of significant financial loss. Use leverage cautiously and understand the implications.
Risk Management: Implementing a solid risk management strategy is essential. Set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and only risk a small percentage of your capital on any single trade.
Emotional Discipline: Trading can evoke strong emotions, leading to impulsive decisions. Maintain discipline and adhere to your trading plan, even in challenging market conditions.
Market Research: Stay informed about market trends, economic indicators, and geopolitical events that may impact prices. Informed traders make better decisions.
Education and Experience: Continuous learning is vital. Consider practicing with a demo account to hone your skills before committing real capital.
Consult a Financial Advisor: If you're uncertain about your trading strategy or financial situation, seeking advice from a qualified financial advisor can provide valuable insights.
Trading can be rewarding, but it carries inherent risks. Stay informed, manage your risks carefully, and trade responsibly.
Wishing you successful trading!
Short setup on SPXThe SPX has experienced a significant bull run, reaching just below $5700, but is now showing clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup.
Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving sideways and is now nearly flat at its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend.
This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration.
Three additional signs support this setup:
The RSI Exhaustion shows bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely.
The price has formed a top at its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator.
A new major resistance level has recently formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level could potentially turn into support if the price breaks above it, for now, it remains a resistance, exerting downward pressure on the price.
Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
ANALIZING PALANTIR ITS JUST COMMON SENSE... BUT BE VERY CAREFULLLet’s welcome Palantir (PLTR) into the weekend analysis!
As we can see in the chart, today I wanted to do general structure analysis not too specific, as we are practically touching the highest level again in nearly 4 years.
Congratulations to all who bought at $12–16 per share and are still holding Palantir, but as I show in the chart, from point A to point B, it took almost 4 years to reach these levels again.
But here’s my question: WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOU BOUGHT AROUND $40 IN 2021?
I’d love to know, as this situation can greatly influence each person’s psychology when making a fundamental decision in trading.
(LEAVE YOUR OPINION IN THE COMMENTS)
I want you to know that I don’t just focus on price analysis. I also study company valuation. Based on a fundamental analysis of its balance sheet and recent moves by PLTR, I’ve concluded that Palantir is currently 171% above its intrinsic value.
In my personal opinion, my decision leans more toward common sense…
What do I mean?
1. Palantir is 171% overvalued.
2. Palantir is diluting its investors like crazy! In every quarterly report.
Do you know what dilution is?
Stock dilution can be harmful to shareholders because the value of each share is reduced, even though the investor holds the same number of shares. This is because the total value of the company doesn’t increase proportionally with the number of shares.
Palantir is an excellent company, although it’s a bit complicated to understand what they do and how they make money. But in my personal opinion, a company that dilutes its investors is nothing but a red flag to me—and a big red flag—because I call this the silent killer for investors.
At this point, PLTR is more on the hype side!
If Palantir reports well in November, we could see the stock above $50 per share, BUT if Palantir reports anything that doesn’t meet investor expectations, any data that falls short… Buckle up!
But how much could it fall? The truth is, I don’t know. But if we base it on technical analysis, I have an important inflection point (purple zone) where I expect the price to bounce after a sharp drop. BUT CAUTION! Only if Palantir doesn’t meet expectations.
An inflection point in trading refers to a critical moment on a price chart where the trend or price direction is expected to change. It marks the transition from one phase of price movement to another, often signaling a turning point in market sentiment or momentum. Traders pay close attention to inflection points as they may indicate a radical trend shift.
Traders use these points to adjust their strategies, such as entering or exiting positions, to capitalize on the expected change in price direction.
BUT WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN? I don’t know, maybe this time it will be different—who knows? But the only thing I can tell you is that numbers don’t lie, and neither does price action.
So, I hope the decision you make is the right one!
Thank you for supporting this analysis.
Sending you my best regards!
NVDA price bounced exactly at the green zone, around 115.25. WOWThe price bounced exactly at the green zone, around 115.25. WOW, do you remember my analysis of Nvidia from last week? I can't even believe it myself; it was incredibly accurate!
Every time I apply price behavior with price action, I always remember the words of my mentor, Al Brooks. He told me: "Just remember, Mike, price action is ALWAYS RIGHT."
I believe that it's the trader who makes mistakes, not the price action, because it will always be on the correct side.
That’s why I always recommend drawing trend lines, channels, and minimizing the use of indicators that might make you see something different. This way, you'll be more accurate in your decision when executing an order.
Going back to Nvidia...
There’s something about the last candle that has me a bit uneasy. This can be very misleading because the price HASN’T BROKEN THE CHANNEL YET! The advantage we have here is that the last candle shows a buying pressure wick, but it hasn’t fully broken out of the channel or shown volume yet. However, I still believe that Nvidia will likely break out at any moment because it bounced off my green zone, as we said in the previous analysis (well before), and it didn’t even reach the #4 sequence, which would have been at the channel’s support.
Now, we just need to wait for a breakout confirmation. But what will happen after it breaks out?
We’re looking for an N3 pattern.
An N3 pattern involves three movements:
#1 Breakout and New High
#2 Pullback and Rebound
#3 New Extreme
That simple.
Will it happen? No one knows for sure. The next step is the breakout, and after that, we let the price do what it needs to do so we can position ourselves for the next move.
Stay very alert this week!
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
SPY is looking Very Sexy ! There is 1 more step to go ! N3 Confirmed!! The price is doing exactly what we had predicted (see previous analysis).
Indeed, the price bounced in the zone we had predicted last week, creating an "N3" pattern. Now, we are waiting for the final phase of the N3 pattern, which is to reach new highs or new extreme.
What do we need to see?
This phase is of great importance because, if completed, we would be at new historical highs again.
The Key is the Last Candle: If you can observe the last candle on the chart, you'll see it has a very long lower wick. I call this a buying pressure candle; however, we need confirmation with the next candle, which should have a large bullish body in order to reach the new extremes we've been seeking.
So, we can conclude that by putting all the points together when analyzing this chart, we have a bullish outlook for the rest of next week. However, it’s important to remember that we need solid confirmation with a bullish candle to confirm we will have a green week!
Best regards and success in your trades.
Thanks for supporting my analysis.