Leverage
context for the crossroads (uvxy)i just wanted to show people why this could still go very badly for broader market longs.
im not doomsaying, or fear mongering here. im simply outlining why i still have a long forecast for vix, even though we are almost breaking to new lows in uvxy.
the highlighted areas are times in the very recent past where spx has increased in volatility even while indices were on the verge of fully recovering.
again, im not saying long this thing right now. im pointing out how this could still be a bullish position for vix longs even while the market appears to be about to recover fully.
dont jump into uvxy trying to call the bottom, but do stay cautious!
this can still go both ways and tuesday is going to be critical.
nq1! over night will shape the week (tqqq)nasdaq futures are looking pretty troubled right now, and if we see a large enough gap down and break last weeks low this could spell out further weakness in the index which could last into march
volume has refused to drop off, and if we see another spike it will probably be selling
taking out fridays high probably opens the gate to $76, and additional volatility likely will take us on another trip back to $66
somewhere ina that range is the perfect hourly oversold condition to dip buy, and touch of aavwap/vwma without follow through is usually pretty good resistance to topfish
Why did I fail?How many traders do you think ask this question to themselves? Well, if we dig deeper into statistics, we’ll see that #1 reason differentiating successful traders from the rest 90%+ is proper use of margin and leverage. For every $50,000 in their account, most experienced forex traders and money managers trade one standard lot. If they traded a mini account, this indicates that for every $5,000 in their account, they trade one mini lot. Allow it to soak in for a couple of moments. Why do less experienced forex traders believe they can win by trading 100K standard lots with a $2,000 account or 10K micro lots with $250 if professionals trade like this? Never open a "regular account" with only $2,000 or a "micro account" with $250, no matter what the forex brokers tell you. Some even enable you to start an account for as little as $25! The number one reason rookie traders fail is because they are undercapitalized from the start and have a poor understanding of how leverage works.
However, this all also goes back to our previous lessons on figuring out what type of trader you are. For instance, we’re slightly more aggressive (and as our SL are usually extremely tight), we stick with 1% (which still allows us to open 2 lots for 50.000$). However, if you have hard time monitoring the trade or prefer to have more “breathing room” for a trade, consider 1 lot for 100.000$ of your trading capital.
All the best and stay safe, fam!
spx run up at gap close may fail (spxl)if we dont break 133.33 confidently, and confirm 15 min reversal pattern with a lower low 131.85 this may signal overheated conditions in spx
should we keep the uptrend holding 130.69 and continuing higher i imagine we have a go at 135, although id still be wary of buying borader markets right now except for a quick flip
if we dont hold 130 and cant get back over 130.66 we will probably see 127.66 again soon
volatility comes in waves
the odds we close up at the highs are low but if we do theres a good long in it
as long as we respect the highs another top is in (uvxy)short term vix futures have put in a multiday high and many broader market sectors are breeching their intraday lows at the same time
this could have a longer term effect, but i think the short term movement in vix will trend back toward 11.89 uvxy
if we build a base of support above 12 and move higher we could be in for more like 12.30, but keep it on the pivot and it should be fine
Leverage Manipulation on BitcoinCool story bro's about "whale manipulation" are common. Here is some evidence.
The "Liquidation Spike" of December 3rd started with the 8:30am US Jobs Report. The move triggered a cascade of stops and liquidations across the cryptocurrency market. In the days prior there was a dramatic increase in leveraged short positions being opened. On Bitfinex the leveraged shorts increase by 275% over 7 days. When the move down happened these short positions closed into profit from where they were taken.
Gravity seemed to pull price down the retest the low. Now on this move to breach the Liquidation Low there is another noted increase in short positions likely trying to force out stops and leverage longs. The battle ensues! My thesis remains that cryptocurrency has entered the bear phase of its cycle.
BTC (Health Check)Limit order for Longing BTC set at 42K. Slightly below the fib 0.618, trying to get the wicks for the quick bounce off. If you look at the daily timeframe in my charts, despite the sell off which was probably due to "Fed minutes reveal talk to shrink balance sheet" news.. We are still setting higher low. The previous higher low was 40536.66. We are technically still in a bullish pattern. Although i do admit that the correction for BTC is quick scary. Previous ATH correction was around -54% and current ATH correction till today price is at -38%. Bearish cross on the macd. Rsi reaching 30.20, should bounce from there, as base on the previous data on the Rsi.
BTC Hourly + Daily
setting up the day in (tqqq)i think were in for continued volatility in nasdaq futures midweek this first week of 2022
before the week is out i expect there to be several runs down towards the lows even if we open higher or especially so
its for this reason that i am focusing on the long side as contrarian dip buys come in banking on the likelyhood that the end of the santaclaus rally results in a bounce
as long as we respect the 162 area the long side of things makes sense should we break down below 161.33, set a lower high and trend lower i would be interested in shorting tqqq down to the .5 of extension which is 159.87
for right now my forecasts range between 161.36 and 165.93
Atomusdt SellHello traders!
Atom has broken the 3rd pattern and it is forming a reversal pattern above the 3rd pattern and soon this pattern will become the peak of the dump.
I am expecting that Atom will come back to test 35$.
Stoploss is -3% of the investment
Target is 13% of the investment
Suggested leverage 15x
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
tightening range breaking bull so far (tqqq)nasdaq and tech bulls are breaking out of this mornings tightening 15 minute range
with a clear break to the upside and hourly close above rising support and sinking resistance could result in prices above 170
macd/rsi heqding toward overbought signals are above indicator
FTM/USDT Shorting this liquidity grabFTM has reached resistance, invalidation at ~ $2.95. This is caused by hype on social media and you can make money by shorting this in this zone right now.
Make sure not to overleverage as the value of the coin is small and the volatility & market cap require you to have a good plan and breathing space in order to execute this trade right.
BTC SHAKEOUT OF WEAK HANDS BEFORE A FACE RIPPING RALLY!?!? LFG!!BTC is going to close below 48,600 on the Monthly view. This is the .382 fib retracement price range. A broadening top has formed (morphing from a bull flag). We have seen higher lows over the last several months which is a good sign. With $6B in options expiring tomorrow, I expect to see more volatility short term. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move down to the next fib level (red line in the channel). Additionally, with BTC price history & movement, a wick down to the 100 week moving average level wouldn’t be out of question.
However, being the start to a new year, institutions and whales will start increasing money flow towards the space. Hedge funds are also RISK ON Q1 typically as well. Don’t let the day-to-day news (noise) force you to sell. It’s clear BTC and others are here to stay. Keep stacking and add on weakness, and don’t over leverage yourself. Typical tradefi brokerages use 2-4x leverage. Having the ability to go 50x that is absurd in my opinion. It makes traders greedy & try to go for those YOLO huge gains. Leverage is okay but be smart about it, remember the downside works against you the same way.
Short term volatility ahead but hang on cuz it’s bout get fun!!
SHAKEOUT OF WEAK HANDS BEFORE A FACE RIPPING RALLY!?!? LFG!!!
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH- NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Joelthebowl- CFA