Get started

Lewisglasgow

GBP/NZD - Bullish BatHello traders, here we have GBP/NZD on the 1h chart with a valid bullish bat pattern. All-round excellent opportunity with over 1:2 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 This is one to watch right now, I thought I'd share this before heading off for the day. The D point forms on a key daily support level, I will share more analysis as the pattern progresses. I'll be looking for additional confirmation before taking the trade!
Long
by LewisGlasgow
5
Ripple - Measured MoveI'd like to present a short post covering Ripple in relation to the market-wide correction. As mentioned in my Bitcoin post the magnitude of the correction for most cryptocurrencies has been amplified as the entire market capitalisation dropped from $830 billion to $310 billion, which is over a 50% decline market-wide. As you can see from April/May 2017, price increased by 1453% within 27 days followed by a correction of 72% inside 10 days. This was followed by a period of congestion which lasted 194 days until we experienced the next bullish cycle. Now looking at the current cycle which started in December, price increased by 1545% inside 28 days which is extremely similar to the move back in April/May 2017. This was followed by a correction which now stands at 82%. XRP has lost 82% of its value within 33 days, which is 3x longer than the previous correction, although this was followed by 6 to 7 months of congestion. The lowest price I see XRP returning to is $0.44 at the previous high which means it would be standing at an 87% decline from the all time high. I will be waiting for the next daily close to determine if the market has bottomed, which to me it appears it has, we cannot be sure for now. From here we can use this opportunity to accumulate XRP at low levels.
by LewisGlasgow
14
The Major Impact of High Risk TradingI feel this post is well overdue, and considering the current market standing in cryptocurrency it couldn't have come at a better time. Today's post will be an eye opener for many, and others common knowledge. I hope you guys gain a lot of value from my insights and use this to your advantage in the markets. The following educational post relates to the trader behind the charts, it is not specific to one financial market meaning it applies to all but today, I will be talking about this in relation to the cryptocurrency market. The Major Impact of High Risk Trading Right now, the cryptocurrency market has lost 50%+ of its overall value, meaning a lot of new and existing traders are suffering huge losses (to anyone who comments "you only lose when you sell" - we'll talk about this later in the post) and their portfolios are in the red. I receive a lot of messages on a daily basis, recently they have been of the following context. Follower: "I'm holding XRP (BTC, ETH, TRX, ETN, LTC, the coin doesn't matter, the message does) from $3 and it's now at $0.70, should I sell?" I know most of these messages are out of panic, looking for an option, hopefully advice on how to regain those losses. Do I tell people to buy or sell? Of course not, it's their investment, however I do provide my insights on where the market is heading next to help them understand their situation. If you are this person, there is good news... You've already held through a serious correction, why are you thinking about selling now? Take a look at the chart shown, as you can see I have illustrated "percentage loss" which is of course the amount you have lost on one given position or your entire portfolio. We have "percentage difference from previous loss" now let's say for example you're holding XRP at a 33% loss and this quickly changes to a 50% loss, you can agree the difference is 17%. And finally we have "percentage gain to break-even", this points out the required increase in capital to regain the losses that have occurred. If you invested $1,000 in XRP $2 and sold at $1, you can agree this is a 50% loss in capital and you now have a $500 portfolio. To regain those losses and return to break-even you would need to gain 100% which is 2x. Let's start to break down the numbers. If your portfolio is down 33% you will need to gain 50% to get back to break-even. At this point, you are concerned but you're convinced the market will pick back up next week, so you don't take any action. The following week your portfolio declines a further 17% which brings the overall loss to 50%, to get back to break-even you need to gain 100%. This is when panic sets in, you've went from $10,000 to $5,000 in one month, the entire market is down and at this point you consider selling. Now, you can see where this is heading. The market declines a further 16% bringing your portfolio into a total decline of 66%. At this stage you now need to increase your portfolio by 200% to get back to break-even. What do you noticed when you get further and further down the list? The percentage difference becomes smaller but the percentage gain to return to break-even increases drastically. If you lose 83.3% of your portfolio, which I have witnessed, you will need to increase your portfolio by 500% which is 6x just to get back to break-even, a further 2.4% decline would require a 600% increase which is 7x. Am I telling you to sell? No, not at all, there is an extremely valuable lesson here. Let's say you are the person who has bought Ripple (XRP) at $3 and it's your only crypto, you're now holding at $0.70 which is a decline of 75%+ meaning you need to increase your portfolio by 300% to regain initial losses, which is 4x. Buying high is a rookie mistake, many people can't think of anything worse but I definitely can. Buying at the top followed by selling at the bottom. I will need to continue this idea in the updates section, it's too long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by LewisGlasgow
35
Bitcoin - Market CorrectionI feel there is a need for another insightful post in regards to BTC/USD, today's analysis is on the 4h timeframe. This is following up from my post 2 months ago where I predicted the next corrective phase to begin at $20,000, from here we experienced a market decline of 50% before price settled. The magnitude of the correction was amplified as the entire market capitalisation dropped from $830 billion to $350 billion, which is over a 50% decline market-wide. We've been looking for low levels to buy bitcoin throughout January, although having two successful long positions this month price is yet to find the bottom. The current bullish bat formation looks excellent, the D point holds price at a 64% correction, which is substantial given this happened within a 6 week period. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 The ratio alignment for this setup is excellent, the D point also aligns with a trend based fib-extension from A, B, C at 1.414, this is not shown on the chart. Below is a simple overview on the daily chart. We're still in a good area of support which of course aligns with the bullish bat, to me this is a reversal zone worth watching. To add, I'm using a logarithmic scale instead of the standard linear scale. Keep this setup on your watch list :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
60
Bitcoin - Bullish Deep CrabWhat's up everyone, I'd like to provide some technical thought amongst all of the madness in the crypto world right now. Bitcoin is currently forming a bullish deep crab pattern on the 1h chart, providing a trading opportunity with a 1:2.5 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid deep crab are detailed below. B: 0.886 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 2.24 - 3.618 X to D: 1.618 I'll be expecting price to stall out once it reaches the D point, this forms on a key level of support! As you can see from the daily chart below the pattern completes slightly above the daily support trendline. This is sufficient reasoning for a reversal to take place and seems likely considering Bitcoin has already corrected by 50% since the all time high. Keep this setup on your watch list :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
104
CHF/JPY - Bearish 5-0Hello traders, here we have a bearish 5-0 pattern on the 1h timeframe with CHF/JPY. Price formed a valid C point at the minimum 1.618 level and is now heading towards completion at D. The measurements for a valid 5-0 pattern are detailed below. B: 1.13 - 1.618 C: 1.618 - 2.24 D: 0.50 I expect price to stall in between 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, this is a key area of resistance and most likely where price will reverse. I hope you all have an excellent week and safe trading!
Short
by LewisGlasgow
4
The People vs. The BanksWelcome back traders, I hope you had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! We're now getting back into the charts it's a brand new year, new opportunities and what a start it has been :) cryptocurrencies are through the roof! Today I'm breaking down two assets which are breaking records and funnily enough one of cryptos most well known rivalries, ripple vs. stellar. As you will know by now, both of these cryptocurrencies have been making headlines for the past month, their growth has been tremendous and to those who took my advice at the beginning of 2017 on both of these assets will have a very nice portfolio, I've received many kind messages with people sharing their results and that's what I love most about this business! However, as good as all this sounds it's at times like this when investors are blinded by 10x and 20x returns, and I come along to bring them back to reality, markets move in cycles and I hate to see traders buy a market top or hold through a 95% correction. XRP current price = $3.68 1 month ago = $0.25 STR current price = $0.86 1 month ago = $0.09 Just take a look at those figures for a second, that's in one month alone. Similar to the moves we experienced in April/May 2017. First, let's take a look at Ripple on the left (XRP/BTC) As we can see from the chart the average increase is 1494% including the present price increase but not accounting for the 5412% total increase in 2017 as this was broken up by a 69% correction. Since the beginning of December 2017 price has increased by 1890% as XRP makes headlines all over the world, it is now the second largest cryptocurrency by marketcap. Let's take a look at the downside of these moves. As you can see these impulsive moves are followed by a correction greater than 69% and actually two of them resulting in a 95% decline. The average correction is 86%. Now, picking out a market top is not simple although I have done this in the past. If we experience a correction from the current level you can expect a correction of at least 50% before the move up continues. A lot of individuals claim XRP will hit $10 and for their satisfaction I have included a target level for this (this price level is based on the current BTC price) which is the exact same percentage increase as we seen in 2017... The total move = 5412% from low to high. If we do see price achieve $10 the correction to follow will be of significance, I expect XRP to lose more than 70% of its value at this price level. Now, we have Stellar on the right (STR/BTC) The average price increase is 2487% including the present price increase. Since September 2017 price has increased by 2794% bringing it back into the top 10 on coinmarketcap.com. We can see that both corrections for Stellar resulted in a 96% decline which is extremely similar to XRP. Again, I see a correction of at least 50% for Stellar very shortly. Taking all of this analysis into account, these charts need to be compared to the asset quoted in USD, I will update this post in the future with the comparison. I will also be updating the idea on a shorter timeframe to pinpoint where the correction will occur. Feel free to check out my previous posts on market cycles. Bitcoin: Altcoins: I wish you all the utmost success in 2018.
S
by LewisGlasgow
60
Market Comparison - What Will Happen to Altcoins?The question on everyone's mind right is... When will the altcoin market recover? WHAT IS GOING ON? There seems to be a serious misunderstanding on the way markets move, I see a lot of comparisons to the tech bubble, although from a cyclical standpoint the principles are similar, you need to realise that the details will always change. As you can see from my chart I have listed XRP, ETH, LTC and DASH which are all quoted against BTC. Let's take a look at all of these trading pairs individually. 1. XRP/BTC As you can see from 2014 to 2017 price went through a major correction of 95%, imagine you were holding XRP from the top... This is how many of you may be feeling right now. Many of you could still be holding XRP from the previous top. Price has corrected the exact same amount as it did previously, we're currently sitting at a 95% correction for 2017. 2. ETH/BTC Ethereum went through a major correction which lasted over 9 months, this decline was 80%. Now we are experiencing a similar move, the current correction started 6 months ago and we are at a downfall of 83%. As you can see price has kept a stable price structure on the weekly chart, providing a solid support level at the current price. 3. LTC/BTC 86% decline from 2014 to 2015. 90% decline from 2015 to 2017. Where are we now? Currently in a corrective phase at a 76% decline. 4. DASH/BTC 90% decline throughout 2014. 80% decline throughout 2015. Current decline at 73%. I don't want to drag it out too much, you guys get the gist of it. I mentioned in my BTC analysis yesterday... "as a general rule, the greater the amplitude of price during the major phase... The greater the correction will be". Think about this in comparison to the charts shown, you cannot expect an asset to increase 10x or 20x and correct 30% followed by the same move consistently. I recommend to take a step back from the charts every now and then and evaluate what is truly happening, the altcoin market won't disappear overnight. This may be a wake up call for many of you, from this point forward start taking your trading/investing seriously instead of buying into pump and dumps or chasing 1000% returns on sh*tcoins. I want what is best for everyone, don't take that too personally :) Just to add I used a logarithmic scale for all 4 charts. I will be adding more analysis to this idea, there's so much that I could not cover it all in one, I've got a lot more thought behind this. This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
by LewisGlasgow
59
EOS - Price StructureTraders, I hope you're all having an excellent weekend. EOS/BTC was requested by one of my followers and I found the price structure extremely interesting, therefore, I'd like to share my thoughts with you all. The chart shown is on the daily timeframe. Considering this asset only has over 5 months worth of price history, it has more to show than the vast majority of cryptocurrencies in the top 50. As soon as EOS became available we experienced an impulsive move over several days, followed by a 96% decline. Once the bottom was found during late October, price climbed over the period of 5 weeks amounting to a 386% increase. We're currently experiencing a correction period which is less than 45% as we speak, I'm expecting price to drop to the support level indicated which would be a 51% correction. This would be a key area to buy EOS in my opinion, at 0.00020000. Feel free to contribute to this analysis, if you have anything to share leave a comment below.
Long
by LewisGlasgow
22
IOTA - Bullish 5-0 (A Parabolic State)What's up traders, today I've got another outlook on cryptocurrencies and my target is IOT/BTC on the 4h chart. Price has formed a valid bullish 5-0 pattern which aligns with the majorities vision for the asset... I believe there is huge upside potential and this trading setup could potentially identify the end of the correction. The measurements for a valid 5-0 pattern are detailed below. B: 1.13 - 1.618 C: 1.618 - 2.24 D: 0.50 The B point forming at a solid 1.13 which is a failed price wave, as price quickly reversed from this level preventing the price of the asset declining further. All point of the pattern formed on exact projections, such as the C point at 2.0. The pattern officially completes at the 0.5 retracement level of B to C but in this situation I'm using 0.618 as the maximum buy point, which you will see happen frequently in these formations, price will pass 50% to test the lower level... If we see a clear close below the 0.618 the pattern is void in my opinion. As you can see we have a price gap on the left of the chart which aligns with the 3.14 projection for this parabolic move, I see the market attempting to fill this gap. I hope you all have a great weekend when it comes.
Long
by LewisGlasgow
96
Bitcoin - Cyclical MeasurementsOh another post predicting the market top for bitcoin... No, this idea is far from it, today I'd like to present the facts surrounding the technical aspect of bitcoin to help provide a better understanding of the asset. Please read the full post to gain a better understanding of what I'm looking at. Today I'm analysing the weekly chart on BTC/USD. As mentioned I'm using a logarithmic scale which presents prices in the proportional amount of percentage increase or decrease, providing us a fair representation of where bitcoin was, is and could be. I've broken down each cycle measured from the breakout of an all time high to a new all time high being the market top. Also detailing the percentage increase upon achieving targets at $20,000, $50,000 and $100,000 as there seems to be a lot of financial articles relating to these figures as the predicted long term value of the asset. This month will be interested as CME and CBOE -0.29% launch bitcoin futures . Below I have detailed the increase throughout each phase of the market from low to high on the weekly chart. The median trendline seems to be acting as a support and resistance level as price returns to it over time, I would pay attention to this going forward. As a general rule, the greater the amplitude of price during the major phase... The greater the correction will be. The first major phase we experienced was an increase of 11729% throughout 2011-2013. The correction that followed was 82%. Our second major phase was an increase of 2472% throughout 2013. The correction that followed was 87%. We're now in our third major phase at a current growth of 8697% from 2015 to present. Correction phase, yet to establish itself. I believe the correction to follow the next top will be of similarity to previous cycles, being a minimum of 50% and a maximum of 93%. I'd like to present the works on major bull trends by H.M Gartley who wrote Profits in the Stock Market (1935). How to recognise a bull market ending. 1. The daily volume has risen to an all time high. 2. Wide daily fluctuations are a regular occurrence. 3. Nearly everyone you meet appears to be in some way interested in the market. 4. Most financial news writers and financial commentators can see no reasons for any important decline. "The thought of a bear market being around the corner is not seriously considered". "A bear who presents what appear to be sound and logical reasons why a collapse is imminent, is considered to be either an out-and-out dyspeptic, or at least a very unpatriotic citizen." "He can count on being very unpopular". "Each bull market breeds a crop of traders who fail to recognise the unmistakable signs of a storm." The above is relevant to bitcoin, you should always be analysing both sides of the market. If we do achieve $20,000 I believe we'll see a major reaction. I will be adding more analysis to this idea, there's so much that I could not cover it all in one, I've got a lot more thought behind this and where the market is headed. This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LewisGlasgow
161
USOIL - Bearish BAMM, Bullish Bat and Market StructureToday I've brining you all an in-depth view on USOIL, firstly I'll break down the base of my analysis on the 1h chart which shows two setups, bearish bamm and bullish bat. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 I understand the BAMM theory will be relatively new to most traders, this style of trading simply focuses on a breakout of the B point. Upon a break and close below/above B, in this situation below, I look to capitalise on the move towards D which confirms the potential reversal zone of the bullish bat pattern. We can see there has been various tests of this level. Taking a look at the daily chart below we can see a clear demand zone between roughly $55 and $54 which aligns with the support trendline. I'll be looking for a sell off to drive prices towards this area, from there I can further analyse the bullish bat for a long opportunity if this level of support holds. Although, I do expect price to drop lower than D to the demand zone at X. If you have any analysis to contribute feel free to leave it below :)
TVC:USOIL
by LewisGlasgow
7
Decred - Bullish CypherWe're looking at another cypher pattern but this time on the 1h chart with DCR/BTC, this is an excellent long opportunity with 1:2 risk to reward! The D point forms above trendline support on the 4h chart as shown below, I'm expecting price to stall out on this level or at completion of the pattern. The measurements for a valid cypher are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.618 C: 1.272 - 1.414 X to D: 0.786 Feel free to share your own analysis below, and as always trade safe!
Long
by LewisGlasgow
3
FCT/BTC - Bullish GartleyWe're now heading into a new week, I'm putting out as many potential opportunities as possible for you guys to analyse over the next few days. Right now I'm looking at FCT/BTC on the 1h chart with a bullish gartley pattern. The measurements for a valid gartley pattern are detailed below. B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.272 - 1.618 Final X to D: 0.786 This has formed in a key demand zone. I'll be updating all of my positions as they progress :)
FLong
by LewisGlasgow
3
MAID/BTC - Bullish ButterflyWhat's up traders, today I'm looking at MAID/BTC on the 1h chart with a bullish butterfly pattern, this has some serious potential. The measurements for a valid butterfly pattern are detailed below. B: 0.786 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.24 X to D: 1.272 The completion of this pattern aligns with the all time low for the asset, meaning it is a crucial area of support and a key area to buy at depression lows. In addition a 1.13 A, B, C extension completes in the potential reversal zone further confirming this zone. I'll be waiting until the pattern completes before placing the trade. As always feel free to connect with me below!
M
by LewisGlasgow
10
LONG AUDUSD Shark & 5-0 Patterns 1DBeautiful Shark pattern on the Daily. Lines right up with our measurements B = 1.13 - 1.618 C = 1.618 -2.24 X to D = .886 - 1.13 The fantastic thing about a Shark pattern is that it has a possibility to turn into a 5-0 if the reversal is at the halfway point, so you have the chance to profit twice! Making sure to have a 1:2 Risk VS Reward, in this case it's a 1:3!!! Note: always draw it on your own chart to get exact measurements! Make sure you have confirmation candlestick patterns CLOSED before entering - it may shoot through the D reversal zone! You're welcome to repost this, just mention @corganmusic! :) For those looking to learn to trade, message me! Good luck out there!
Long
by corganmusic
Ethereum - Harmonic OutlookTraders, I advise you to read this entire post to gain a better understanding of what I'm looking at. It's been a while since my last trading position on ETH, back in August price completed a valid bearish bat pattern (shown on the chart) which was followed by a decline of almost 50% in two weeks. Taking the time to reflect on Ethereum's situation from a technical standpoint the future direction is now becoming far clearer. It has been struggling to break the $300 range for sometime now but a move above $400 is on the horizon. Today I'm going to break down every aspect of the chart and explain in detail what I feel is happening from a technical perspective. We're on the 4h chart with ETH/USD. 1. Bearish bat The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 A closer look on the 4h chart at my previous pattern, take profit levels 1 & 2 were achieved in a relatively short time period. 2. Daily price structure Right now price is trading within a small zone, between a minor resistance and newly formed support trenldine, which aligns with levels A & C of the bearish butterfly. 3. Bearish Butterfly The measurements for a valid butterfly pattern are detailed below. B: 0.786 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.24 X to D: 1.272 It's not uncommon for harmonic patterns to occur one after another, especially with the previous pattern securing a nice return. Currently price is completing the C to D leg of this structure and I estimate the pattern will complete on the 30th of November based on my measurement rules shown below. The amount of time it takes price to form X to B is the projection for B to D. Now remember, this is not certain... There will be many times when patterns take 2x longer to complete and still result in a profit. I am only using my common principles to accurately determine the completion of the pattern. 4. Current price action I would focus on the basics as of right now, I'm looking for a break of minor resistance and the support trendline to hold in order for the bearish butterfly to complete. In the near future I will update this idea with my thoughts on Ethereum. If we experienced a situation where the following happened. It would still be a valid setup, as long as the C point does not exceed 0.886 and the lower trendline support is in tact. If the bearish butterfly pattern completes I will let everyone know if it is a good area to short or close long positions, what we may find it the future is price pushes to around $520 at a 1.618 extension. I hope this post has been helpful, feel free to leave a comment below.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by LewisGlasgow
43