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Lifecycles

Personal opinion: It's over. No second wave.One of my favorite charts. Used it for BTC many times in the past. In my previous batflu idea, I compared countries with lockdown to those without, and it seems that those that closed everything saved a few lives - ok let me rephrase, that while the total number of people dead and in financial misery will be far higher, the number of people catching & dying of covid-19 specifically is slightly lower than if there was no lockdown. Looking at the stationary phase in various countries, it seems to confirm this. We can also see that lockdowns did slow the spread of the virus compare to other countries. Charts are not great because the sample size is rather small for 1 country it's making them not smooth. But averages, or adding several countries, are cleaner. For confirmed cases, there's 3% deaths? So over 30 days with 7000 more cases/ day let's say + not much difference other than that ==> 200,000 people in hospitals. With slow to act governments (adapted to times of peace not time of war & emergency) and "we need a 5 year study on a 50 years old medecine before we can take it" ===> Around 6000 but let's say 5000 to 10000 deaths. Sweden isn't close to Italy and much colder but let's look anyway. They had 2500 death / 10 million with no lockdown. Italy had 27000 deaths / 60 million so 80% than Sweden. With no lockdown I estimated they'd have had something like 35000 deaths (assuming hospital wouldn't be overloaded). Mmmm ye seems to make sense, be the right order of magnitude. Italy Germany France the UK prob each save ~5 k lives each. The USA might have saved around 20k. Not counting all the lives lost for other reasons of course. Then in my opinion they're all in the red. There are 3 things we should prepare for: - Meteor hitting earth - Infectious diseases - Nuclear catastrophy And I hope the world sees that we sure are not ready. All rich hedge fund managers have their bunker. They're good at what they do but earth is going to need more than market specialists to rebuild. Some things stealing all the focus: - The CO2 made up threat that does not even make sense - Asians make more money than hispanic migrants & purple hair people have the right to be called by the right pronoun that they can change at any time with no warning We should keep on eye on earth climate and ozone layer and oceans and humidity and magnetic field etc. We shouldn't invent idiotic dogmas and censor real science and drag all the political focus on those idiotic dogmas. There are REAL threats out there. There won't be a second wave. Either it dies and does not come back. Or it survives summer and wave 1 continues. They'll be other ID. China found an ancient lost virus frozen in Tibet recently. Who knows what can happen with their wonderful quality & hygiene standards.
CShort
by MrRenev
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