LIGHT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Reaches 2019 high The Light crude oil prices hit 2019 high level on Tuesday. The surge was attributed to the US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela crude oil exports and the OPEC supply cuts.
As for this week’s trading sessions, it is likely that the LIGHT.CMD/USD pair retrace down towards a support line formed by the 50-hour simple moving average at the 60.03 mark.
If the support line as mentioned above holds, the pair will continue trading in the medium-term ascending channel pattern during the following trading sessions.
Lightcrudeoil
LIGHT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Will continue to gain strengthThe Light crude oil prices have continued to appreciate in a medium-term channel against the US Dollar. The 50-hour simple moving average has pushed the pair towards the $60 mark.
The LIGHT.CMD/USD pair is trading near a resistance level formed by the weekly pivot point at 60.18.
If the weekly PP hold, a possible pullback towards a support cluster at 59.21 could follow within this session.
On the other hand, if the crude oil prices pass the resistance line as mentioned above, the pair might hit the $62 mark before the end of March.
LIGHT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Weekly overviewThe Light crude oil prices have depreciated about 4.66% against the US Dollar since last week. The pair reversed from a three-month high at 57.81 on February 22 and had since breached the 50-hour simple moving average at 56.18.
The LIGHT.CMD/USD pair tested a resistance level formed by the 50-hour SMA at 56.18 during the morning hours of today’s trading session.
If this resistance level holds, the commodity could aim for the lower band of an ascending channel pattern at 54.27.
On the other hand, if the pair passes the 50-hour SMA as mentioned above, the next target for bullish traders will be near a resistance cluster at 58.25.
LIGHT.CMD/USD 4H Chart: Rally likely to continueThe light crude oil has been appreciating in an ascending channel pattern against the US Dollar since the end of December. The commodity bounced off from the bottom border of the channel pattern at 42.44 on December 26 and followed by 19% gained.
The LIGHT.CMD/USD breached the 200-hour simple moving average at 49.78 during the end of yesterday’s trading session.
Everything being equal, it is likely that the commodity price will continue moving higher towards a resistance cluster formed by the combination of the weekly and the monthly PPs at 52.83.
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$CL1! Crude Oil - 2 Year Uptrend broken - EQ-EQ Short in playAfter a massive selloff, breaking the 2016-2018 uptrend line, CL will likely find support at the bottom of this range, and the Yearly Pivot.
Its very unlikely we continue down from this current level - and a much higher % probability is that we get a DCB/Relief Rally
Bargain hunters will step in short term, short sellers will take profit, and we will see a push back up.
Weve got quite the ceiling overhead now, including:
Resistance, turned support - broken
Broken Downtrend Line
E.Q of the Yearly Range
After a quick visit to this area well get a strong rejection, and eventually break down out of this range.
Now the market tends to move symmetrically, and if we get rejected at our old ranges E.Q - break that range, and move down - i would expect to find support at the next E.Q to the downside.
Short $64
Target $45
LIGHT.CMD 4H Chart: Targets at 75.34Light.CMD/USD has been appreciating against the US Dollar since the middle of August after the pair reversed from the lower boundary of a six-week ascending channel at 65.00.
Everything being equal, it is likely that the crude oil price will continue its upward movement and aim at the upper boundary of the six weeks ascending channel pattern at 75.34 during the following trading sessions.
However, important resistance levels to look out for is the weekly R1 at 74.45, which could hinder the price from reaching the target this week.
Light Crude Oil #CL long term longs, weekly demand in controlLight Crude Oil #CL long term long bias, weekly demand level in control, similar scenario is also available on Brent. Weekly chart is uptrending, weekly demand imbalance at 64.94 is in control and printing higher lows. Daily demand at 65.82 in control attacking a used-up daily supply zone at 70.39, expecting daily supply level to be eliminated. If that happens a new daily demand imbalance will be created. Definitely long term long bias on Light Crude Oil
Light Crude possible short scenarioThis is just one of several scenarios that may play out: The recent down-move over the last 20 days has only extended 0.618 of the larger move (purple (A) wave) and may have an extended 5th wave that meets a 1:1 extension of (A). Saying that the recent move is a valid impulse wave down, and it could be the end of the bear-move. On a break of the wave 5 / (3) low this scenario will be in play. otherwise, primary wave 4 has completed and we should see some strong bullish action for the next few months.
I will be interested in either one of these outcomes.
This is published solely to further my own education.
Target hit. Consolidation before the final bullish leg. Long.TP = 70.52 hit after the 4H Channel Up (RSI = 70.630, MACD = 0.810, B/BP = 2.3200) extended aggressively for a new Higher High near 70.90. The price is simply capitalizing on the previous week's 1W Engulfing Bullish reversal candle (+5.41% on RSI = 62.243, Highs/Lows = 1.2364). All longs from the lower 68.20 are closed, waiting for another pull back opportunity. So far all buying opportunities since the June 18 = 63.50 bottom have been taken advantage of to the maximum. 70.84 was a big 1D Resistance (now the chart is fully bullish on RSI = 61.593) so despite the aggressive Highs/Lows = 3.0864, consolidation is expected around it. Note that STOCHRSI, Williams and CCI are already overbought. 69.98 and 69.01 are the long entries if you've missed this uptrend. Our next TP remains 71.88.
Correction on 1W completed. Medium term uptrend. Long.Since the last report, the price pulled back after the 1D Rising Wedge exhausted. Technically the correction on the 1W Channel Up is completed (at 63.50) and already the price has crossed (marginally) the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (69.23). 4H has developed a Channel Up (RSI = 61.796, Highs/Lows = 0.6614, B/BP = 1.300, MACD = 0.770) which will serve as the initial mechanism for this medium term bullish reversal. We are buying with first TP = 70.52, second TP = 71.88.
Crude is retesting the broken up trend lineCrude broke a year long up trend line earlier this month. It has now tested the bottom of the up trend line several times and looks ripe for drop.
Take your loss on a daily candle close back above the trend line .
Target the three indicated levels. You can even hold a portion of the trade for the June 2017 low.
Follow your stops as the trade moves in your direction.
Be sure to size your trade according to your risk parameters. NEVER BET THE FARM!
No trade is guaranteed 100% to work. You NEVER know what the market will do.
Your first job is to protect your trading account.
Rejection on Higher High, buy opportunity lowerAs seen on the chart, the price was rejected emphatically on the Higher High of the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 53.179, MACD = 1.090). As a consequence (with the 4H Rising Wedge also broken) the Channel Up will now look for a Higher Low (Highs/Lows = -0.3729) and the potential buy zones are: 69.01 - 69.50 and 67.80 - 68.20. We will enter equal long positions on both zones, expecting a maximum downside period of two weeks. Long term, CL remains bullish as long as 1W is a Channel Up (RSI = 65.582, Highs/Lows = 2.8521, B/BP = 8.5860, MACD = 4.030).