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EURUSD: butterfly pattern + the price is breaking out?Happy Easter Monday catholic traders! Today the volatility should be low, however it could be possible, that there is a butterfly pattern forming on daily time-frame in EURUSD + the price is breaking out of the descending triangle chart pattern, which signals that the price could start going higher... However, moving average indicates that the trend (bias) is still bearish, which means further price confirmation is needed before joining bulls. Fundamentally, I would like to highlight some cons and pros, which might give a broader view about the current economic situation in both US and EU and might support the technical picture: Cons: 1. COVID-19 stats in EU are still pretty bad and number of confirmed cases are growing more than 2% in major European countries, while in USA the growing pace is around 1% (as of today) 2. USD could act as safe-heaven asset once-again, if equity market provides one more leg lower, thus it's possible to see another USD bullish rally in shorter term. 3. Despite of monetary easing, interest rate is still higher in US, meaning that swaps are negative, if buying EUR against USD 4. Unemployment rate in Euro area is higher (4,4% against 7,9% forecast), than in US (as of March 2020) 5. GDP Growth rate in US is 2,1%, while in Euro area it's 0,1% ( as of Dec 2019) 6. Inflation rate in US is 1,5%, while in Euro are it's 0,7% (as of March 2020). Pros: 1. USA has the highest number of COVID-19 confirmed cases 2. Consensus around eurobonds could support EUR and might act as a strong signal that Europe stands together 3. FED liquidity injection must have weakening impact on USD and lot's of companies are still going to default 4. Current account to GDP in US is -2,3%, while in Euro area it's +3,1% (as of Dec 2019) 5. Government debt to GDP in US is 107%, while in Euro area it's 85,9% (as of Dec 2019). // I would very much appreciate if you support my work by hitting like .) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Education
by GIgor_021
S&P500: bull trap?Technically speaking, yesterday S&P500 closed with a shooting star candlestick pattern on daily chart, which was a warning signal for bulls... ...today the market continues going higher and it might produce better price to short the equity market. The COVID-19 pandemic is still out there killing people and lot's of industries (e.g. airlines, hotels or cruise lines, etc.) are not working properly... ...companies cut dividends, while people loose their jobs (more than 6,6 million initial jobless claims in US came out last week). If you ask me, whether I think the price formed on 23rd of March this year (around 2200) is the bottom for the equity market, my answer would be: definitely not. What's happening now, seems to me more like "FOMO correction" move, rather than "V" shape economic recovery. Hopefully I am wrong, but in one thing I am pretty sure: "building - is not breaking"... ...so joining bears from around 2780-2800 price zone seems logical for me. Keep in mind, that it's important to follow predefined goal and rules when trading. // I would very much appreciate if you support my work by hitting like .) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GIgor_021
14
BTCUSD: possible long scnearioTechnically speaking, BTC has broken out from the triangle chart pattern on 4h timeframe... ...so entering from around 6600 with S/L around 5650 and T/P around 9200 (previous March high) price levels provides decent R:R opportunity. Fundamentally, BTC was under pressure as other major markets and I am not sure we are not going to see lower levels in the coming days/weeks, but before that another bull rally is quite possible. Keep in mind, that It's important to follow predefined risk and money management rules. // I would very much appreciate if you support my work by hitting like .) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GIgor_021
2
USDCAD: possible short scenarioCAD is under pressure mostly due to oil prices, last week it weakened more than 6% against USD. Let's assume that we are going to see some correction this week and speculate on this move... Entering the market between 1.4390-1.4576 with T/P around 1.3930 provides decent R:R opportunity. // I would very much appreciate if you support my work by hitting like.) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Short
by GIgor_021
6
USOIL: #stayhome effect Oil prices have dropped more than 50% in March (yearly performance is around-62,1%). Is it the end or are we going to see more downside movement? Let's assume this is another opportunity for joining bears, based on technical analysis (thoughts) you can see on the chart. How much lower can the price go? Can it reach the lows of 1999? My answer is: why not? Most of developed countries are on quarantine #stayhome and the supply wasn't cut by OPEC. The major US indices, including DJI, S&P500 and Nasdaq, have fallen in the following order: 35%, 30% and 25%. While different sectors and industries in the US have the following yearly performance so far: 1. Energy minerals sector (931,2B MKT CAP): -58,04%, out of which e.g.: -Coal Industry: -69,17% -Oil & Gas production Industry: -62,67% -Integrated oil Industry: -57,05% -Oil Refining/Marketing: - 55,7% 2. Industrial Services Sector (515,96B MKT CAP): -36,09%, out of which e.g.: -Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry: -60,01% -Oil&Gas Pipelines Industry: -42,93% 3. Process Industries Sector (681,34B MKT CAP):-27,36%, out of which e.g.: -Pulp&Paper Industry: -50,05% -Chemicals: Major Diversified Industry: -49,87% -Agricultural Commodities/Milling: -41,45% 4. Non-Energy Minerals Sector (476,43B MKT CAP): -25,73%, out of which e.g.: -Steel Industry: -48,32% -Other Metals/Minerals: -40,16% -Aluminium: -39,87% 5. Transportation sector (569,48B MKT CAP): -23,84%, out of which e.g.: -Airlines industy: -49,2% 6. Finance sector (6038,64B MKT CAP): -23,12%, out of which e.g.: -Life/Health Insurance Industry: -37,69% -Real Estate Development Industry: -37,64% -Financial Conglomerates Industry: -34,83% -Major Banks Industry: -31,13% 7. Consumer Services sector (1481,09B MKT CAP): -21,53%, out of which e.g.: -Hotels/Resorts/Cruise Lines Industry: -43,78% -Casinos/Gaming Industry: -34,22% 8. Producer Manufacturing sector (1030,45B MKT CAP): -21,02%, out of which e.g.: -Auto Parts: OEM Industry: -34.64% -Metal Fabrication Industry: -33,09% -Industrial Conglomerates Industry: -31,72% It's quite interesting when and how these industries will be able to recover, but I am quite sure it's a great opportunity to start analyzing particular companies and building portfolio with these businesses. This is going to be my next step... // I would very much appreciate if you would support my work by hitting like.) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
FX:USOILEducation
by GIgor_021
AUDUSD: possible trade scenarioPossible trend reversal in AUDUSD, the price and 9 EMA + 21 EMA indicators are above 50 EMA on 1h chart (which wasn't the case since 10th of March)... Entering the market from 0.58550 price with S/L below 0.56600 and T/P around 0.64660 provides decent R:R opportunity. Keep in mind, that the bias is still bearish, so proper position sizing is crucial. I would like to remind you, that this is not an investment advice (nor any of my previous posts). // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Long
by GIgor_021
USDCAD: possible long scenarioThe world is in interest rate cut mode. Yesterday FED cut the interest rate from 1,75% to 1,25%, while RBA from 0,75% to 0,5%. The market should price interest rate cut from Bank of Canada (BoC) as well, which will be announeced today. This might be bullish for USDCAD, so joining from 1.3335 price level with S/L around 1.326 and 1.3523 T/P provides decent opportunity. Proper position size should be applied based on risk management strategy. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Long
by GIgor_021
4
EOS: possible long scenarioEOS is currently at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and possibly forming a H&S chart pattern... ..on the other hand several times the price rejected the support zone around 3.4 price level and currently it's above 50 EMA on 4H chart (on daily it's still below). It seems reasonable for me to start entering the market from current 3.8 price level with S/L below 3.4 and T/P around 5.5. First resistance level is around 4.07, second one is around 4.41. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Long
by GIgor_021
XRPUSD: triangle breakout, further positivity is coming?Cryptocurrency market is breaking out from descendeing trendlines (check my previous posts regarding).. global uncertainty around coronavirus might enhance further positivity. Triangle breakout in XRPUSD (yesterday close on daily timeframe) provides signal for joining bulls with quite wide stop around 0.215 and 0.365 t/p level.. (R:R=3.3) If entering the market at 0.265 S/L can be placed around 0.23 price level. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
BINANCE:XRPUSDLong
by GIgor_021