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Linear Regression

EXY is at a critical turning point.EXY is at a critical turning point which will judge its course in the future. Looking at the data in the charts, it is obvious that the sellers are trying to lead the index to lower price levels. Starting from the analysis of the trend and its momentum, in the price chart on the left, there is a downtrend lately which has led to the break of the lower limits of the uptrend channel, creating two lower lows as well as two lower highs. Continuing the analysis with the averages, which follow the trend, it seems that a change in the direction followed by the prices is imminent. Specifically, the position of the green average, it is the one that indicates the type of the trend, and its attempt to go below the white average is an indication of an impending change in the direction of the price. Then the data from the MACD show a weak momentum, at the moment, which does not cease to be negative. Looking back at the chart, however, the MACD’s momentum was not as strong as now and the green average did not try to break the white in the previous attempt of the sellers to lead the EXY to lower levels. These data may lead to the conclusion that this may be the beginning of a downward trend in EUR Index prices. On the other hand, focusing on the data that arise from the analysis of support and resistance levels, there are some points of interest that need special attention to make any decision. At this point I should mention that some levels of Fibonacci Retracement and Expansion have been deliberately removed as well as several levels of support and resistance have been omitted to make the chart as clear as possible. In the findings of the analysis, it is obvious that the downward trend of prices stopped right at the confluence of the levels 100.0FE and 61.8FR as well as at the support level 119.00. Also, the fact that the fall was stopped at 61.8 FR, which is an important limit in the study of Fibonacci levels, testing it twice in recent times, it is concluded that the dynamics of sellers, at present, is not enough to push EXY to lower price levels than currently. Some very critical levels that are formed after the application of the Fibonacci tools as shown in the chart are the resistance levels 119.8 and 123.0 as well as the support levels 119.0 - 116.3 and 113.5. Considering the above findings, the conclusion is that the index is at a very important price level. A breakout of the 119.0 level could lead to a further drop to the 116.3 price level and then to 113.5. On the other hand, the possibility of prices breaking 119.8 may lead to higher price levels, initially up to 123.0, and in the end, the downward trend of the last period may be considered as a correction.
TVC:EXY
by UnknownUnicorn214400
2
SHORT Trade Based On Price ActionThis is a trade setup based on timeframe agreement and price action. Looking at the relationship across the timeframes, these are some of the things to take notice of: ====DAILY CHART==== The daily chart shows good evidence of bearishness: there are lower lows and lower high; and the price is overbought, interacting with the upper linear regression channel. ====LOWER TIMEFRAMES==== The lower timeframes generally agree with what we are seeing on the daily chart. However the H4 is currently encountering a lot of support. A more conservative trade would be waiting for that support be broken and then retrace before entering. ====STOPLOSS PLACEMENT==== A conservative level for stoploss would be above the previous lower high on the daily. ====PROFIT TAKING==== Consider taking 1:1 profits before the daily's lowest low in the downtrend. However, scope to take profits into oversold area of linear regression channel.
Short
by NextForexTrade
SHORT Trade Based On Price ActionThis is a trade setup based on timeframe agreement and price action. Looking at the relationship across the timeframes, these are some of the things to take notice of: ====DAILY CHART==== The daily chart shows good evidence of bearishness: there are lower lows and lower high; and the price is overbought, interacting with the upper linear regression channel. ====LOWER TIMEFRAMES==== The lower timeframes generally agree with what we are seeing on the daily chart. However the H4 is currently encountering a lot of support. A more conservative trade would be waiting for that support be broken and then retrace before entering. ====STOPLOSS PLACEMENT==== A conservative level for stoploss would be above the previous lower high on the daily. ====PROFIT TAKING==== Consider taking 1:1 profits before the daily's lowest low in the downtrend. However, scope to take profits into oversold area of linear regression channel.
Short
by NextForexTrade
SHORT Trade Based On Price ActionThis is a trade setup based on timeframe agreement and price action. Looking at the relationship across the timeframes, these are some of the things to take notice of: ====DAILY CHART==== The daily chart shows good evidence of bearishness: there are lower lows and lower high; and the price was recently overbought, interacting with the upper linear regression channel. ====LOWER TIMEFRAMES==== The lower timeframes agree with what we are seeing on the daily chart, producing lower lows and lower highs. ====STOPLOSS PLACEMENT==== A conservative level for stoploss would be above the previous lower high on the daily. ====PROFIT TAKING==== A 1:1 reward-to-risk appears achievable, although the daily does indicate scope for the price to move beyond that.
Short
by NextForexTrade
SHORT Trade Based On Price ActionThis is a trade setup based on timeframe agreement and price action. Looking at the relationship across the timeframes, these are some of the things to take notice of: ====DAILY CHART==== The daily chart shows good evidence of bearishness: there are lower lows and lower high; and the price is overbought, interacting with the upper linear regression channel. ====LOWER TIMEFRAMES==== The H4 also shows good signs of bearishness, although there are some clear signs of recent support as discussed in the video. A more conservative trade would be waiting for that support to break and the price to pull back. The H1 and lower timeframes show good signs of bearishness, with lower lows and lower highs. ====STOPLOSS PLACEMENT==== A good level for the stoploss is above the most recent resistance evident on the daily. This clears the previous lower high in the down trend and is also outside the liner regression channel. ====PROFIT TAKING==== Can consider taking initial profits on 1:1. However, if the price breaks the most recent lower low on the daily, there is a lot of scope for the price to potentially move lower. See link below for the video description of this.
Short
by NextForexTrade
2
EURUSD Timeframe Agreement & Price Action For Shorts Trade setup to short based solely on timeframe agreement and price action. DAILY good signs of bearishness and signs that price could be oversold (based on linear regression channel) H4 broken support which was holding up the price HOURLY Started to show lower lows and lower highs. Entry based on seeing reversals off of either the upper linear regression channel or the average of linear regression channel. STOPLOSS PLACEMENT Using the lower highs on the hourly for stoploss placement, as shown in video. TAKE PROFIT 1:1 reward to risk seems probable if the price action pans out as described, although scope for a move beyond that.
Short
by NextForexTrade
USDTRY: Daily swing trade opportunityWe have a nice swing trade op in this pair, go long at market, stop loss should be placed below the recent low. I think the pair has room to rally back to resistance (see red line on chart). Linear regression and speed lines help us, along with oscillators and bar by bar analysis, as well as the use of RgMov, to determine the trend and where trend following or short term reversal opportunities arise. I'd say the odds of success here are big, but given the tight stop I wouldn't risk a full unit (your maximum risk per trade) but rather risk 1/4 of it for now. The same signal is active in the $EURTRY pair, but since I'm trading the $EURUSD pair separately, I'm only focusing on $USDTRY for now. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
ETHUSD Ichimoku+RSI Neutral-Bull ForeshadowingTrade with care! This is still a bear market, but just as corrections can go down, they can go up. Right now it looks like the market will correct upward, and 330 USD looks like an optimistic target. This still needs to be analyzed over the next few days, but I wouldn't be surprised if a huge rally came up. Sell volume is going down for both ETH and BTC and long positions are coming in. My main telltale-heuristic sign is USDT, which despite the huge selloff is stabilizing at 1:1. Watching it tells me people are slowing down the crash and bulls could make a run. This doesn't mean that the market will have a full reversal. I wouldn't overcommit to this position, but from watching all scales, I think 200 stays the bottomline for the time being. If you ask me, I'm feeling neutral, going from bear to bull.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
11
Tesla's 1:6 trade opportunityThis morning Tesla's r(0.988) linear regression just touched a new low at 260.1, there are two possible scenarios: Red arrow: Tesla's uptrend is over and investors should probably SHORT targeting 248.00. Green arrow: Tesla is currently undervalued and may bounce back to the near resistance level at 286.88 continuing the r(0.988) linear regression. My pick this time is a 1:6 LONG trade expecting the price to go back to the regression channel. --- "We go to school to learn to work hard for money. I write books and create products that teach people how to have money work hard for them. " - Robert Kiyosaki
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by adelriosantiago
USOIL: Daily view, linear regression and range movement analysisIn this chart I graph the linear regression channels that correspond to each leg in this trend. The trend is mostly up, and it's likely that we're seeing the start of the next major uptrend leg here, since we have found huge buying when retesting the bottom of the long term linear regression channel. Technicals are bullish, without even factoring the fundamentals. The yearly SMA matched this spot, as well as the lowest volume level since the bottom in oil, which is a really strong support, so bearish thesis had to be discarded. Factoring in global demand vs the production cut, the dynamics of supply and demand confirm this idea, and we have strong arguments for holding longs. Additionally, range movement, Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and sentiment analysis tool, shows that we had 2-2.3 point drops in RgMov on each correction in the uptrend, and that's what happened here, so, the sentiment declined enough to form a bottom. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
9
Linear regression suggest an uptrend in RUSSELL 1000A r(0.942) linear regression on Russell 1000 index suggests an uptrend in the coming months. There are two possible scenarios: (1) the trend continues to travel along the linear regression channel eventually reaching the ~120 level. (2) in a less likely pattern, the price breaks the 5 regression channel, and then bounces back in the strong support level at ~86 I am going LONG on this. Traders should take special care trading and watch for worldwide events that may have a negative impact on it. --- "If you have trouble imaging a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." - Jack Bogle
NASDAQ:VONELong
by adelriosantiago
AUDUSD: Key Hidden Levels and Linear regression analysisAUDUSD found support at the upper deviation of the recent downtrend's linear regression channel today. This level coincides with the mid point of the recent VIX 75% retracement, or 'smart money buying spree' key level, which happens after VIX spikes by 5 points or more, and the smart money 'buys the dip' in risk assets, making VIX retrace 75% of its recent climb, reducing option volatility, calming the market and putting a floor below the recent sell off lows. This range, gives 3 levels to monitor on retest, and that's what we have here. Let's see if bulls step in and drive price above resistance, else, the downtrend in AUDUSD will resume. We can enter longs here, or on a new daily high to be more conservative, risking a new daily low. Keep risk at 1% or less. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
SPX: Watching it closely with no positionI'm holding a few trades (refer to my recent posts) but not in any SPX position. I think we can have a great buy signal soon, so I'm following VIX and the 'Time at mode', linear regression channels and speed lines signals in SPX. This is a 2-day chart, the timeframe in control of the current downtrend. The time and price target suggests price can drop to 2095.3 by or before November 9th. I'll be paying close attention, because if we get a buy signal in that zone, it could be an excellent trade going into the next year. Most people are concerned about the Fed and the elections, and technicals aren't helping, so we can see some divestment or at least everyone getting short. What we need to see is when and where the smart money decides to buy and bid up the market, absorbing all this retail supply, if they do. If not, we have the making of a bear market in equities. Keep close watch of this chart and the levels posted here. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:SPX
by IvanLabrie
ANF Following Linear Regression ChannelAnfield Nickel Corp looks to be at a great price to buy. Looking at the linear regression channel, you can see it is trading near the bottom of it with several indicators showing price will soon begin to move upwards with the channel. Firstly the MACD is about to crossover to a bullish signal, Then the WaveTrend Oscillator is showing price oversold with a slight curve beginning to move up, and lastly the Parabolic SAR is showing the end of a downtrend.
ALong
by juniortrader
1
Strong Short, Tronox Ltd.Very good short play on Tronox Ltd. This stock has broken its upwards trend posting a lower high after 4 higher highs in a row and it is at the top of the linear regression channel. TROX has bounced off of a resistance line and is experiencing decrease in volume. The MACD is also about to crossover to a sell signal and the Directional Movement Index is showing a downwards trend. Also, the stock is in oversold territory showing at 65 and is about to cross under the 9 Day MA.
NYSE:TROXShort
by juniortrader
APPLE LONG: $151-$182 - CYCLICAL ANALYSIS & REGRESSION FORECASTAnalysing Apple's (AAPL) historical cyclical price movements and using the +/- 2SD of the linear regression to forecast a naive regression price for the next extension phase. * Extension leg Regression Forecast* 1. For leg A (Extension Leg 1) we use a start point of $12.5 or $33 (phase doesnt have a clear start), or we could assume a mean value of (12.5+33)/2= $22.75. - Leg A is then, $12.5, $23.5 or $33 divided by $100, which means Leg A is a price increase of = 700%, 310% or 200% 2. For Leg C (Extension Leg 2) the price increased from $55 to $134.5 which is a 145% increase. 3. For Foretasted Leg E (Extension Leg 3), we start at $89 and we derive the price "%" increase by: - Using the regression of the price increase % from Leg A to Leg C e.g. 145%/700%= 21%; 145/310 = 46%; 145/200= 73%, so this means for each of the calculations we can then assume each is the regression growth differential from Leg C's 145% increase to foretasted Leg E's "%" increase 4. e.g. Foretasted Leg E / Extension Leg 3: 21% of 145% = 31% increase; $89 * 31% = $117 or 46% of 145% = 67% increase ; $89* 67% * $89= $151 or 73% of 145% = 106% increase; $89 * 106% = $182 - Thus Apples Leg E/ Extension Leg 3's Naive Regression Forecast = between $151 and $182 * As shown on graph. Furthermore, another interesting statistical measure for apples 10year/ 120 Month +/-2SD channel was that the Pearsons R was 0.95. This means that the linear correlation between Apples Price over the measured time period was 95%. 95% of all values observed lie averagely on its linear regression line (middle line of the Stan Dev channel) - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient - Having such a high Peasons R means the regression line holds true for 95% of past data and therefore is MAY also include 95% of future data thus extrapolating the linear line (or using basic regressions as i have done) is of some statistical significance. A Pearsons R coefficient of 0.3 means there is little positive correlation between Price and Time, thus extrapolating prices through time using basic regressions/ forecasts is much less statistically prudent, since only 30% of past data correlated about the linear regression line.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
1