Get started

Linearregressionchannel

XAUUSD IntradayTraders, Keep a close eye on the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment release, as any bearish surprises could sway market sentiment, particularly favoring a stronger dollar. Adjust or remove orders accordingly based on the outcome. Here's a breakdown of our analysis: Daily Chart: We maintain a bullish outlook, having responded positively to the bottom of the channel. 4-Hour Chart: Strong support and resistance levels have been breached, signaling potential upward momentum. Intraday: Early hours of today's candle presented favorable trading opportunities, although reversals could also serve as viable entry points for short positions. Exercise caution and adapt your strategy in response to evolving market conditions. Best regards,
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AliSignals
ADX + DMI + LineReg Live TradingI used the replay trade function to test out ADX+DMI + using a LineReg to set TP + SL areas. I thinked it worked pretty well trading USD/JPY for the week of 1/9/2023. Success rate was 66.67% but I wasn't having strict trading rules since I was trying to trade how a normal would psychologically. I think with follows stricter rules this could have higher percent win rate & higher profit. Even with losses I was hit with I still cleared over $2000 for the week. Please ignore my girlfriends family as they are cleaning out a closet lol
by niksidnayr26
1
When Will DXY (Dollar Index) Resume Its Devastating Uptrend?Primary Chart: Linear Regression Channel for DXY on Daily Chart, Upward Trendline from November 2021, and Parallel Channel from 2008 DXY Lows Since the low on January 6, 2021, DXY (the dollar weighted against a basket of several other major currencies) has ripped about 28.66% higher, causing ripple effects in equity markets, commodities, and international trade. This has been massive run that has pushed DXY to within a proximate range of a 21-year high at 121.05, a level last reached in July 2001 during the bear market of 2000-2002. Supplementary Chart A: Weekly Chart of DXY with a Parallel Channel Showing the Uptrend Since 2008 along with the 21-Year High on July 2021 The Primary Chart shows a linear regression channel set at +/- 2 standard deviations. The channel runs from the lows on October 27, 2021. The current pullback in the US Dollar Index is nearing a -2 standard deviation move. At the lower edge of the channel will equal -2 standard deviations from the linear regression line (at the center of the channel). Interestingly, the lower boundary of this regression channel coincides to some extent (not perfectly) with the upward trendline drawn on the Primary Chart. But when the chart is switched to logarithmic, the up trendline runs nearly parallel with the lower bound of the regression channel. This parallel relationship between the up trendline and regression channel's lower boundary is posted in Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B: Logarithmic Trendline from October 2021 to Present Date Next, consider a slightly longer-term trend reflected by a somewhat longer regression channel shown on a weekly chart. This regression channel shows that the recent pullback has not even reached the midpoint of the channel at the linear regression line, though it could pull back to that area. This somewhat longer-term trend has been shown to illustrate the strength of this trend and to contextualize the pullback, which remains very mild in light of this larger-degree trend. Strong trends generally tend to continue after corrective retracements rather than reverse—though the crash in equities this year shows that strong trends can and do reverse at some point. Supplementary Chart C: 2-Year Linear Regression Channel from January 2021 Fibonacci price analysis also provides a plausible technical argument for why DXY could end its pullback near the upward trendline support and the regression channel's lower boundary. This Fibonacci projection (or a measured move) appears on the Primary Chart above, and it shows that the 1.00 to 1.272 zone (where the two segments of the current decline are equal or nearly so) ranges from 107.93 to 109.21. Could this be where DXY reverses back higher to continue it's trend? Could this be where DXY moves back into the center of its channel? Given the strength of the trend over the past 2 years, this area seems like a spot where some significant chance exists for a reversal higher. Much will depend on the FOMC meeting on November 1-2, 2022. If DXY turns back higher, then it may well be that equity indices stall around the same time and turn back lower. Finally, consider a major weakness in the bull case in the intermediate term. Price has tested the top of the very long-term parallel channel now three times, as shown by the blue arrows on the Primary Chart. This makes sense that price would reject here given the long-term nature of this dynamic resistance level at the top of the parallel channel. This area is now weaker, though given the repeated contact price has had with it, including a few minor breaks that didn't last. Will price reject lower again on the next retest of the return line at the upper bound of the parallel channel? Or will it overthrow the parallel channel's upper bound in a final multi-week exhaustion move? An alternative is to target 116-117 in the index as the next upside target. If the parallel channel is redrawn on a logarithmic chart, channel resistance has not yet been tested yet in September and October 2022. In fact, the next push higher could test the upper channel on the log chart at 116-117. Supplementary Chart D: Parallel Channel Drawn on Logarithmic Chart Feel free to post your argument in the comments below! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:DXYLong
by SquishTrade
10
AMD Stuck in a Severe DowntrendPrimary Chart: Linear Regression Channel and Two Long-Term Anchored VWAPs No matter what method is used to analyze and define the trend, AMD has been stuck in a severe downtrend since its all-time high on November 30, 2021. Like other growth and technology stocks (except for FAANG stocks and Microsoft), AMD's November 2021 peak occurred a month before the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) topped on January 4, 2021. The linear regression channel, set a two-standard deviations from the linear regression line, evidences the downtrend as of today, October 6, 2022. Price is hovering just under the linear regression channel's midline, which is the linear regression "line of best fit." Two anchored VWAPs also confirm the validity of the downtrend as well. The first anchored VWAP is anchored to the all-time high in November 2021. That VWAP is well overhead at $102.38 as of today, and it slopes downward. Note how it has been resistance at major swing highs after sharp bear rallies over the past year. The second anchored VWAP is anchored to the pandemic-crash lows in March 2020. That VWAP also lies well overhead at $92.16 as of today. These VWAPs show that sellers remain in control despite the impressive bear rallies that have repeatedly occurred since the all-time high. Until the structure changes materially, and that could take a fair amount of time to unfold, the downtrend remains in effect. Bounces should be sold at proper resistance levels preferably with confirmation that price has begun to reverse back lower in the short term. If readers are interested, SquishTrade may post a shorter-term view that includes key resistance levels where the current bear rally may find strong resistance. These levels could be watched for reversals where price in the short-term rejoins the larger-degree downtrend. ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:AMD
by SquishTrade
33