USDCAD H1We will be expecting reaccumulations over here, for a buy-side move towards the deeper refined areas of the supply zone, filling imbalances before mitigation
Liquidation
UNDERSTANDING LIQUIDITYIn this quick and easy lesson, I will break down the concept of liquidity.
If you retain the thought that liquidity stands for an area where stop losses are you will grasp this concept quickly.
We often see spikes into areas of liquidity before true moves continue, this is so that banks can capture as many orders as possible before they depart from the area.
NZDCAD H1 - SHORTLooking for a push into our supply zone, before taking a sell if we get a confirmation.
BTCUSD H4 - LONGBuy to Sell into a Supply and a Sell to Buy into a Demand. We are looking for a move to fill the imbalances, mitigating the refined zone followed by a shift in structure on the lower timeframe before taking a BUY position.
GBPUSD H1 - SHORTPrices are likely to fill the imbalances lying just beneath the supply zone. Wait for prices to shift from buy-side to sell before taking a short to run liquidity lows.
EURJPY H4 - LONGPrices got rejected from a H4 demand as well as a Weekly Supply zone. With how prices are being presented to us, we are looking for another buy-side move towards deeper areas to mitigate the weekly supply levels.
NZDJPY H1 - SHORTSimilarly, waiting for a pullback onto supply zone before taking a short position. Prices are likely to fill imbalances on both ends.
EURCAD 5M - LONGGartley Completion at D-leg may serve as primary buys, to eventually create liquidity for prices to go lower to mitigate deeper areas.
EURAUD H1EURAUD H1
Look for SELL schematics at supply zone, otherwise potential BUYS at immediate demand zone.
GBPCHF H1 - SHORTGBPCHF H1 - SHORT
Potential BUYS from demand zone.
Ultimately pushing down towards H4 Demand @1.26000 area.
GBPCAD H4 - SHORTGBPCAD H4 - SHORT
Wait for break of structure and pullback onto supply zone @1.71180 area.
If there is confirmation, sell it.
USDJPY H4USDJPY H4
Prices tapped into the daily resistance area @ 110.800, made a sell-side move, breaking structures, creating new lows and now making what seems like pullback before a continuation short.
We identified 2 major areas for SELL positions, mainly @109.400 area as well as 110.300 area.
If prices doesn't hit any of our crucial structures, we will be looking for a short-term LONG position @108.400 for an upside move towards 109.400.
GBPAUD H1 - LONGGBPAUD H1 - LONG
Prices got rejected from a resistance zone, looking to test a BUY zone @1.79000 area. Aggressive and short term traders may look at this as a potential buy trading opportunity.
If we do see a breakdown off the support area, liquidating orders lying beneath the trendline, we can catch a pullback SELL opportunity towards the major structure support level below.
EURCAD H1 - LONGEURCAD H1 - LONG
Tapped into Weekly Demand Zone
Wait for BOS + Pullback onto H1 Demand
1:4 Risk to Reward
BTCUSD- Downside Projection 21K If we take a look back at the 2017-2018 Crypto run up and sell off the similarities in price action are eerie. I went through studying all the moves trying to find a proper price target based on measured moves with little success. However, today I had a realization, once BITSTAMP:BTCUSD was unable to rally, and a large liquidation through $30000, I realized that we could be on track for another 50% downturn from this level as distribution continues.
Comparison -
Here is an image of the 2018 drop and as we can see their similarities are glaring. Bitcoin made a new high moving up 492% from a swing low. Dominance fell off sharply right before this high was made topping out around 71. This was followed by a sharp drop in dominance. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin continued its rally finally running out of gas at 19666. Here is where things really become interesting. Ethereum the second most popular cryptocurrency at the time (coinmarketcap.com), began to go on an insane rally. After making all time highs with bitcoin, it pulled back with bitcoin but from its swing low of 501, it pumped 183%. ETH just completed an identical pattern putting in a swing low and rallying 125%. As the ETH high was put in, Bitcoin continued to oscillate in a small range and began to lose dominance at a very rapid rate. From the ATH to the bottom of dominance bitcoins price dropped 36%. Today's measurements show a 34% drop but the pattern between highs and in dominance in price are identical. Once Ethereum put in new highs, It sharply dropped and the crypto market was all downhill from there. Bitcoins dominance finally bottomed out yet prices across the crypto market continued declining rapidly. If today is the bottom of Bitcoins dominance (beginning to look that way) I wholly expect for the market to continue lower. Bitcoin regained a dominance of over 60 after 241 days down trending The price change during this time was a drop of 58%. I expect for BTC.D to be able to top 60 in half of that time as this bear cycle pans out.
Key Differences -
While theoretically, history would suggest that Bitcoin drops 80% off highs however, this seems unrealistic without major fundamental shift. Integration into businesses and money transferring apps gives Bitcoin lots more value than it had during 2018. People are interested in Cryptocurrency but the liquidity retail has brought into the market is a double edged blade. On the one hand, there is more money going into a product with a cap on supply which will always raise price, on the other hand there is more liquidity for short sellers to take advantage of. Another aspect that has changed is institutional investing. With larger interests now holding bitcoin due to incredible alpha and versatility such as protection against inflation (something that has not been present recently but I will save it for another post) is a huge win for Bitcoin. Many institutions would likely find Bitcoin a steal at 21K as it continues to grow mainstream. These differences are the main reason I only project a 50% drop in price for bitcoin. That being said, these are only my thoughts and there could be a drastic change in Bitcoin in the near future that completely changes the market, I will update this idea if that is the case.
Conclusion -
I hope whoever is reading this was able to take something away from it. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts or a conflicting view.
Meaning of Lines
Red Dashed- Dominance Low
Green Dashed- Dominance High
Gold- Price High
GBPCHF H4 - LONGGBPCHF H4 - LONG
BOS > Liquidation of orders
Pullback entry after confirmation on LTF
To clear the last swing high
AUDJPY H4 - LONGAUDJPY H4 - LONG
Prices broke out of structure, leaving behind an unmitigated area of demand zone, waiting for a pullback with an AC/D on the lower timeframe, before taking a LONG position if we see a structural shift, with the lower timeframe being in line with our higher timeframe bias.
EJ about to rallyTook out previous lows, rejection on 61.8 fib + 200EMA, clear bullish structure on the 4H. Entering on the higher low. Target at the next resistance zone. Bullish fundamental bias as well.
$AMC longs demoralized? Flush complete, time for next leg up?Very often it is only after the longs have been liquidated, after being completely demoralized when the last and most obvious support ($1.95) could not hold, that price can begin a new up leg. We shall see.
BTC LONG manipulation process completeThe manipulation process is complete, more institutional long positions are opened, a new market turn should occur with the first TP at 10705.
