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Liquidationlevels

BTC SHORT/CRAB, LET GO.BTC looks to be in a short term distribution phase, with a likely top already in ~47k on CME. Expect moderate volatility this quarter, where I expect constant violent 10% swings in either direction between 46k and 41k until the ETF approval. Afterward, expect a drop to ~38.5k by the end of January. Note, January EOM has the highest likelihood of dropping the furthest beyond the "Q1 High probability range noted on the chart" towards 34.5k. Breaking out the Q1 Range will likely result in continued momentum to follow until the next line of support/resistance, noted at 50k or 34.5k. The last line of defense will be ~31.6k in the event of a full liquidation cascade as it supports the previous sideways structure we had between 32k and 25k since March last year and acts as the 0.5 fib from the ATH to this cycle low. If we drop further under 30k, than you must accept the increased probability of 46k being a bull trap and being the largest rug pull to occur and we head toward revisiting 20k, 15, and even 10k. RWI (Random Walk Index) and LS (Liquidation Screener) are the indicators used. RWI is printing bearish divergences along with starting to crossover toward bearish trend. LS probably has shown the top as it has hit the red bearish territory and recently dropped out of it and heading over the median line currently at 33.7k (but is rising and i could see it bottom out toward the lower side of Q1 probability range by EOM JAN or even EOQ) Overall, I believe the ETF may be a sell-the-news event that will in the grand scheme of things crab between 46k and 41k, until the end of Q1, but with a short visit to 38.5k. Breaking out the expected range of 46k-38.5k, begets continued momo in the same direction. Take note this is likely due to lowered overall volatility of BTC maturing as a whole. But alts may push forward after the expected flush. Let go. Relax. Q1 Ranges: High probability 46k-38k Moderate probability 52k-30k Max probability 54k-18k Trades: Short @ 44k TP 41k, 39k, (may carry it down to 30k depending on PA under 39k) SL 47k Short @ 50k ( if expected range breaks out) TP 40k, 35k, 32k SL 54k Long @ 39k TP 44k, 50k SL 37.5k Long @ 35k & 32k TP 40k, 50k SL 29k
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
Bitcoin Range Breakout - Trade PlanThe volume profile for Bitcoin over the past 4 months shows a key level at around $28,040. Historically, after Bitcoin breaks out of a trading range, it tends to spike up, get traders excited and buying, before crashing back down to retest longer timeframe volume profiles. We've been ranging above $30,000 for a month now, causing many to forget about this $28k volume shelf. Psychologically, traders get used to above $30k prices. So when the price dives below, it sparks panic selling. Currently, there is the potential for a short squeeze if Bitcoin spikes up toward $29,300, where there are high short liquidations waiting. This could provide a textbook short opportunity around $28,850. On the flip side, if the price continues falling, we could see a high volume long squeeze which would lead us to one of the best long trades this year opened around the key $28,040 level. Either way, keeping an eye on this zone and watching for liquidation spikes will be key. We should be prepared for both scenarios and have a plan ahead of time - either a long squeeze occurs and we look to short around $29,850, or we wait patiently for price to break down to our target of $28,040 to enter a long position. The market is about to react violently and it will be important to keep emotions in check and remain stoic through the volatility.
by stoicobserver
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