GBPCAD MODULEWe are focusing on the 4-hour time frame chart to analyze the potential moves and changes in GBP/CAD price. Based on my bias, I am expecting a sell in the market today. Let's see what kind of opportunity the market provides. It is very important to get confirmation before taking a trade, so always wait for confirmation.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#GBPCAD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Liquidity
What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a strategic trading approach designed to exploit false breakouts in financial markets. By understanding and leveraging liquidity grabs, traders can identify potential reversals and enter trades with relative precision. This article delves into the components of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, how to identify and use it, and its potential advantages and limitations, providing traders with valuable insights to potentially enhance their trading strategies.
The ICT Turtle Soup Pattern Explained
ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern developed by the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) that focuses on exploiting false breakouts in the market. This ICT price action strategy aims to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows.
The concept behind ICT Turtle Soup trading is rooted in the idea of liquidity hunts and market imbalances. When the price breaks out, it often triggers stop-loss orders set by other traders, creating a temporary imbalance. The ICT Turtle Soup strategy seeks to capitalise on this by entering trades in the opposite direction once the breakout fails and the price returns to its previous range.
The pattern is named humorously after the original Turtle Traders' strategy, which focuses on genuine breakouts. In contrast, ICT Turtle Soup takes advantage of these failed attempts, thus "making soup out of turtles" by transforming unproductive breakout attempts into potentially effective trades.
Typically, traders look for specific signs of a false breakout, such as a price briefly moving above a recent high or below a recent low but failing to sustain the move. This strategy is particularly effective when used in conjunction with other ICT concepts, such as higher timeframe analysis and understanding of market structure.
Components of the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern
To effectively utilise the ICT Turtle Soup setup, it’s essential to understand its core components: order flow and market structure, liquidity, and internal versus external liquidity.
Order Flow and Market Structure
Order flow and market structure are critical in analysing the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. This involves observing price movements and traders' behaviour in different timeframes. Traders can analyse higher and lower timeframe price movements in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Higher Timeframe Structure
This refers to the broader trend governing the lower timeframe trend. For traders using the 15m-1h charts to trade, this might mean structure visible on 4-hour, daily, or weekly charts.
Higher timeframe structures help traders identify the major support and resistance levels. These levels are essential as they mark the boundaries within which the market generally oscillates. Traders use these to determine the prevailing market direction and potential areas where false breakouts (stop hunts) are likely to occur.
Lower Timeframe Structure
Lower timeframe structures are examined on hourly or minute charts. These provide a more detailed view of price action within the higher timeframe’s range and account for the bullish and bearish legs that dictate a broader higher timeframe trend.
Liquidity and Stop Hunts
In general trading terms, liquidity represents how easy it is to enter or exit a market. However, in the context of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, areas of liquidity can be identified beyond key swing points.
Stop Hunts
Stop hunts, also known as a liquidity sweep, occur when the price temporarily moves above a resistance level or below a support level to trigger stop-loss orders. This movement creates a liquidity spike as traders' stops are hit, providing a favourable condition for the price to reverse direction. ICT Turtle Soup traders seek to exploit these moments by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction once the liquidity is absorbed.
Internal and External Liquidity
Understanding internal and external liquidity is vital for applying the ICT Turtle Soup pattern effectively.
Internal Liquidity
This refers to the liquidity available within the range of the higher timeframe structure. It involves identifying smaller support and resistance levels within the larger range. For example, in a bullish leg, there will be a series of higher highs and higher lows; beneath these higher lows is where internal liquidity rests. This internal liquidity will be targeted to form a bearish leg as part of a higher timeframe bullish trend.
External Liquidity
This involves liquidity that exists outside the key highs and lows of the higher timeframe trend. To use the example of the bullish leg in a higher timeframe bullish trend, the low it originated from and the high it creates as the bearish retracement begins count as areas of external liquidity.
Order Blocks and Imbalances
While not directly involved in the ICT Turtle Soup setup, understanding order blocks and imbalances can provide insight into where the price might head and the general market context.
Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling activity has previously occurred, often due to institutional orders. These blocks represent zones of support and resistance where the price is likely to react.
Bullish Order Blocks
These are typically found at the base of a significant upward move and indicate zones where buying interest is strong. When the price revisits these areas, it often finds support, making them potential entry points for long trades.
Bearish Order Blocks
Conversely, these are located at the top of significant downward moves and signal strong selling interest. These zones often act as resistance when revisited, making them strategic points for short trades.
Imbalances
Imbalances, or fair value gaps (FVGs), are price regions where the market has moved too quickly, creating a significant disparity between the number of long and short trades. These gaps often occur due to high volatility and indicate areas where the market might revisit to "fill" the gap, thereby achieving fair value.
In other words, when a price rapidly moves in one direction, it leaves behind an area with little to no trading activity. The market often returns to these imbalanced zones to facilitate proper price discovery and liquidity.
How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Strategy
Here's a detailed breakdown of how traders use the ICT Turtle Soup pattern.
Establishing a Bias
Traders begin by analysing the higher timeframe trend, such as the daily or weekly charts, to establish a market bias. This analysis helps determine whether the market is predominantly bullish or bearish. Identifying this trend is crucial as it guides where to look for potential Turtle Soup setups.
For instance, the example above shows AUDUSD initially moving down after a bullish movement off-screen. It eventually breaks above the lower high, indicating that the higher timeframe trend may now be bullish. Similarly, the shorter-term downtrend beginning from mid-May also saw a new high, meaning a trader may want to look for long positions.
Identifying Internal Liquidity
Once the higher timeframe trend is established, traders look for a move counter to that higher timeframe trend. In the example shown, this would be a downtrend counter to the bullish structure break. They mark levels of internal liquidity; in a bullish leg, these would be below swing lows and vice versa. These areas are likely to attract stop-loss orders.
Looking for Liquidity Taps
The next step involves waiting for these internal liquidity areas to be tapped. This typically happens when the price briefly breaks through a support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before quickly reversing direction.
Ideally, the price should tap into the same area or order block where the internal liquidity formed and then exhibit a quick reversal, often leaving just a small wick. This movement indicates a liquidity grab, where large players have taken out stops to facilitate their own orders.
Lower Timeframe Confirmation
After identifying a liquidity grab beyond this internal liquidity level, traders look for an entry. On a lower timeframe, they look for a similar pattern: internal liquidity being run and a subsequent break of structure in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. This involves price retracing back inside the range to fill an imbalance and meet an order block, which provides a precise entry point.
Executing the Trade
Once these conditions are met, traders typically enter the market. Specifically, they’ll often leave a limit order at an order block to trade in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. They place a stop loss just beyond the liquidity grab, either above the recent high for a short trade or below the recent low for a long trade. Profit targets are often set at key liquidity levels, such as previous highs or lows, where the market is likely to encounter significant activity.
Potential Advantages and Limitations
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a trading strategy with several potential benefits and drawbacks.
Advantages
- Precision: Allows for precise entry points by identifying false breakouts and liquidity grabs.
- Adaptability: Effective across different timeframes and market conditions, including ranging and trending markets.
- Risk Management: Built-in risk management by placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab points.
Limitations
- Complexity: Requires a deep understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order flow, making it challenging for less experienced traders.
- Market Conditions: Less effective in highly volatile or illiquid markets where false signals are more common.
- Time-Consuming: Demands continuous monitoring of multiple timeframes to identify valid setups, which can be time-intensive.
The Bottom Line
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern offers traders a powerful tool to identify and exploit false breakouts in the market. By understanding its components and applying the strategy effectively, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. To put this strategy into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, a reliable broker that provides the necessary tools and resources for trading.
FAQs
What Is ICT Turtle Soup in Trading?
ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern that exploits false breakouts. It identifies potential reversals when the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing direction. This strategy aims to take advantage of these liquidity grabs by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction.
How to Identify ICT Turtle Soup Conditions?
To identify the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, traders analyse higher timeframe trends to establish market bias. They then look for counter-trend moves and mark internal liquidity areas. The pattern is identified when the price taps these liquidity zones and reverses quickly, often leaving a small wick. This signals a liquidity grab and potential trade setup in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.
How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern?
Using the ICT Turtle Soup pattern involves several steps. First, traders establish a market bias based on higher timeframe analysis. Then, they look for liquidity grabs at marked internal liquidity areas, indicating false breakouts. The next step is to confirm the setup on a lower timeframe by observing a similar liquidity grab and structure break. Lastly, they enter trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trend, placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab and targeting key liquidity levels for profit-taking.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DXY ANALYSISWe are focusing on the 4-hour time frame chart to analyze the potential moves and changes in DXY's price. Based on my bias, I am expecting a sell in the market today. Let's see what kind of opportunity the market provides. It is very important to get confirmation before taking a trade, so always wait for confirmation.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#DXY 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
ETHUSDT | Midweek AnalysisAt the beginning of the week, the price failed to take higher timeframe buyside liquidity and made a run to the low of the previous week.
Market Maker buy model framework.
I would expect the price to reach target 1, perhaps tomorrow with the PPI.
Next week we have Federal Funds Rate, so we could also see some consolidation the day before.The analysis is valid until then.
PRICE ACTION MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for GOLD. According to my BIAS and my strategy I'm looking a buy trade opportunity. Let's wait and watch which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#XAUUSD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles
Cycle Analysis:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes:
ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase)
Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2%
Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11%
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes:
ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase)
Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94%
Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93%
Projection for Cycle 4:
Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth:
Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000
(Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors)
Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200%
(Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains)
Projected Loss: Around 70-75%
(Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation)
Each cycle shows a pattern of:
Reduced percentage gains
Slightly improved loss recovery
Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price
ATH Calculation:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x
Observed Growth Multiplier Trend:
Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x
Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x
Projection Approach:
Lower Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative)
Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000
Upper Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic)
Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91
Gain Percentage Calculation:
Cycle 1: 52,287.39%
Cycle 2: 12,804.2%
Cycle 3: 1,976.94%
Observed Decline Pattern:
Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage
Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage
Projected Gain Range:
Lower bound: 600-800%
Upper bound: 1000-1200%
Loss Percentage Trend:
Cycle 1: 86.9%
Cycle 2: 83.11%
Cycle 3: 75.93%
Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement)
Methodology Notes:
Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers
Considered logarithmic growth pattern
Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles
Disclaimer:
Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles.
"Crypto is an expression of Macro."
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation.
Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets.
In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management:
1. Quantitative Easing (QE)
The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention:
- Prevented a complete economic collapse
- Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets
- Kept interest rates artificially low
- Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession
2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy
Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management:
- Coordinated interest rate decisions
- Shared information about economic interventions
- Created global liquidity pools
3. Cyclical Liquidity Management
The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through:
- Periodic liquidity injections
- Strategic interest rate adjustments
- Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one
The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of:
- 2-3 years of expansionary policy
- Followed by a contraction or normalization period
This cycle typically involves:
- Expanding money supply
- Lowering interest rates
- Supporting asset prices
- Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating
The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions.
This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BTC Breaks Crucial 101,000 BarrierA green candle has closed above the crucial 101,000 price level, as established by Fib levels.
This comes after a minor pullback that was rejected from the 97,000 with a bullish engulfing candle. This means that there's enough buying power for the price to be rejected at this range, and continue trend upwards.
The Stochastic RSI is also signalling a strong bullish trend.
DXY FORECASTIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for finding the upcoming moves and changes in DXY price. Here I'm using base and trendline strategy along with price action. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#DXY 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
GOLD ANALYZEHere we are analyzing 2H time frame for gold. By using trendline and price action module. According to this analysis I'm looking sell trade when price come into our zone than we will take some confirmation like candles confirmation and price action and than after strong confirmation we will take sell trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#XAUUSD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
USOIL BULL Triangle The oil chart is showcasing a large triangle pattern within a smaller triangle, and the breakout of the smaller triangle to the upside strongly suggests that the larger triangle will also be broken. This breakout signals the potential to target significantly higher levels.
Additionally, the bottom has been tested approximately four times, with the last test clearing out all liquidity. Now, the chart appears to be gearing up for a major upward move after a prolonged accumulation phase.
As for my perspective, I’m betting on oil’s rise rather than its decline, even though the current triangle formation is typically a bearish (descending) triangle.
The second entry opportunity will present itself after the larger triangle is broken and confirmed through a retest.
Note: I don't care about the count if it right or not don't comment on that please
EUR/USD ANALYSISIn this analyze we are analyzing 1H time frame to identify that what will be the next move come occurs in EURUSD currency pair. I'm expecting that first price came down and touches our buying zone and than again move in upward direction. Let's wait when price enter into our zone and observed how will price react into our zone.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#EURUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
GOLD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 2H time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking for potential sell trade opportunity. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#XAUUSD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
EURUSD 8/12/24This week, with Euros to the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen price pull back to the highest area highlighted in last week’s markup. It took out the liquidity high we placed below it while also mitigating some of our longer-term points of liquidity.
We’ve now identified several points of liquidity lower down, one being at the base of the last upward move. This move originated from the area we highlighted as a potential zone for bullish price action. Despite the significant upward movement, our higher time frame bias maintains a bearish narrative, indicating that money is still flowing out of this market, pushing prices lower.
As shown on the chart with the indicator applied, we are now on the 4-hour timeframe. A "money-out" area has been formed, and we are watching for price action to follow this trend, targeting the liquid lows we have marked. This setup points to a sell opportunity at the start of this market session, with the expectation that price will continue to move bearish throughout the week.
Stick to your risk and follow your trading plan.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) : Time to Position for Profits!Ethereum (ETH/USD) is currently positioned for a bullish breakout, and I am excited to share my analysis with fellow traders.
Bullish Sentiment and Technical Setup
The current price action shows ETH testing the $4,000 resistance level, which, if broken, could trigger a wave of FOMO buying, propelling prices towards $4,500 and beyond. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflecting strong buying momentum, now is an opportune time to consider long positions.
I will be utilizing probabilities to strategically enter into long trades, focusing on support levels around $3,600 to $3,700 as potential entry points during any pullbacks.
Several fundamental factors are contributing to this bullish outlook:
Institutional Interest: Recent reports indicate that BlackRock has made a significant investment in Ethereum, purchasing over $230 million worth. This institutional backing is a strong signal of confidence in Ethereum’s future.
Market Dynamics: The overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed interest as Bitcoin has surpassed the psychological barrier of $100,000. Historically, Ethereum tends to follow Bitcoin's lead, and this correlation suggests that ETH could also see substantial upward movement.
Technological Advancements: Ethereum's ongoing developments in DeFi and NFT sectors continue to attract users and investors alike. The upcoming upgrades and increased adoption are likely to bolster its price further.
In summary, the combination of technical indicators pointing towards a bullish trend and supportive fundamentals creates a compelling case for trading ETH/USD long.
As we navigate this exciting market landscape, I encourage fellow traders to stay vigilant and consider positioning themselves for potential gains in the coming weeks.
P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.
Let's capitalize on this momentum together!
2W:
Hourly Timeframe Entry:
EURUSD Start?Based on the data, it seems that the Euro will regain its strength and rise in the coming days. There is only one scenario, which is an upward movement. As for the upward move, it will either drop to the yearly low to draw liquidity and then rise, or it has already sufficed with the current level and will continue its ascent without needing additional liquidity.