Liquidity
EURUSD 11 Mar 2024 W11 - Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and as expected price reached the supply zone above the Swing EQ, also sweeping the Liq above the Supply zone which could initiate an INT Pullback for the Bullish INT Structure.
CHoCH will be the first sign for the INT Structure Pullback.
4.
Be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Swing Pullback Back Phase
2.
15m Swing turned bearish after reaching the 4H Swing EQ.
After the Swing BOS we expect a Pullback.
There is a HP that the 4H swing pullback is over and we may continue the bearish Swing continuation. But be mindful that the 4H INT structure still bullish and this is just an Internal Pullback.
Bullish Swing BOS will indicate that we still in the 4H Bearish Swing deep pullback.
3.
Price had tapped into the 4H demand and initiated the 15m Swing Pullback Phase.
EURUSD & DXY OUTLOOK | 4HDXY is kinda aligning with my bias. I personally think it will go for the imbalance and the gap will act like a base. For EU I'd look for shorts in the whole retracement zone. I have two POIs which I marked - 2WT & DBD. I always make sure DXY aligns with EU when I'm entering. Keep it in mind. The whole retracement zone is a big supply zone.
I personally do not think that EU will exceed it but in case it does the same POIs will work as Demand - D>S.
What do you think?
2WT = 2 Way Trap
DBD = Drop Base Drop Supply Zone
EURUSD 11-15 Mar 2024 W11 Weekly Analysis – US CPI WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11-15 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
(Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.
3.
With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from which resulted in a Bearish CHoCH.
Price swept the Liq above the Weekly demand and now targeting the Liq below the Weekly Supply for bearish continuation.
Expectation will be after reaching the weekly supply is to see price continuing bearish.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation / INT Pullback
2.
Within the Daily Bearish Swing we reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone and formed a bearish iBOS confirming the Swing Pullback is over and we are Pro Bearish Swing and starting the Continuation Phase targeting the Weak Swing Low.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected a Pullback.
After mitigating the Daily Demand zone we formed a Bullish CHoCH which confirmed the INT Structure Pullback Phase started.
Expectations is set now for the INT Structure Pullback Phase to continue to the INT EQ up to the Daily/Weekly Supply. But be mindful that the Swing Bearish continuation can continue at any time.
There is no HP POI for Shorts up to the Daily/Weekly Supply Zones.
IMO Price could continue up to sweep LIQ from the INT Momentum Phase that leaded to the iBOS before we continue down.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and as expected price reached the supply zone above the Swing EQ, also sweeping the Liq above the Supply zone which could initiate an INT Pullback for the Bullish INT Structure.
CHoCH will be the first sign for the INT Structure Pullback.
4.
Be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
Economic Events for the Week
BTCUSD | WHY DID THIS HAPPEN? | 1H OUTLOOKI said in my previous BTCUSD post that I'll be looking for low term sells after the ATH inducement. It played out perfectly. But why?
This is my view - The ATH was a massive liquidity pool. After collecting the orders and the liquidity it started big sell movements. Then out of FOMO people started selling because they thought they could "catch top". Twitter was like - "SELL SELL SELL". After inducing again, collecting liquidity orders and imbalance the sellers have been trapped which led to again big upwards movements.
What do you think about BTCUSD?
EURUSD OUTLOOK | 4hFor EU I'd look for shorts in the whole retracement zone. I marked up the levels that I'm interested in so the 2WT and the DBD. I always make sure DXY aligns with EU when I'm entering. Keep it in mind. The whole retracement zone is a big supply zone.
I personally do not think that EU will exceed it but in case it does the same POIs will work as Demand - D>S.
What do you think?
2WT = 2 Way Trap
DBD = Drop Base Drop Supply Zone
DXY OUTLOOK | 4hIn this case the gaps can be used as Demand. There was a medium inducement and there's a possibility it know starts going up but there is also an imbalance curve with a gap under which could get filled with the news. Keep that into consideration.
What do you think about DXY?
Write in comments
LQP = Liquidity Pool
2WT = 2 Way Trap
Arrows = Inducements
USDCAD OUTLOOK | 4hThe first buy area is medium safe because there was no major inducement.
The second one would be after a major inducement + HTF POI mitigation.
Take also into consideration what DXY does.
What do you think? Write in the comments.
LQP = liquidity pool
DBR = Drop Base Rally Demand Zone
Arrows = Inducements
USDCHF OUTLOOK| 4HMy full target has been hit.
The buy area is medium safe because even though most of my criteria has been met there was no major inducement. You can look for longs there but not blindly buy.
In case the DBR gets exceeded you can pretty safely sell at that are after retracing.
What do you think?
DBR = Drop Base Rally Demand Zone
EURUSD 8 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and the possible POI to maybe start the Pullback is the 4H Supply above the Swing EQ.
But be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Swing/Internal Pullback Back Phase
2.
Price continuing bullish with Bullish Swing BOS formation.
We had reached the 4H supply and we'd fully mitigated it which could provide bearish pressure to initiate the 15m Swing Pullback.
But be mindful that 15m Swing and 4H Internal Structures are solidly Bullish and we there is a HP we will continue up to mitigate the Daily/Weekly Supply.
Still on my Bullish Bias. Shorts will be in play once we have confirmed 15m Bearish BOS. Risky shorts will be with 15m Bearish iBOS.
3.
Swing Discount Zone and the last 15m/4H demand zone for potential reaction/longs when reached.