EURUSD 5 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMI/PPI - US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 5 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Note: Nothing changed since yesterday except 15m Sub INT turned Bullish aligning with 15m INT and Swing Bullish
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bullish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which is currently bearish.
The Sub Internal Structure failed to continue bearish several times and there is a High Probability that we are currently targeting the Sub Structure High (Green Line) to continue the Bullish INT Structure and target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market.
Liquidity
BTCUSD TRADE UPDATE | FULL TP HIT We hit full target :)
From a psychological perspective people are most likely trying to catch the top of the BTC bullish movements which often leads to more movements to the other side that all the people are expecting.
After 69K I might look at shorts but for now only bullish.
What do you think about bitcoin?
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: High Impact News & Sell-Side Draw📈 Trading Alert: High Impact News Incoming this Week on the Dollar!!!
March Market Insights:
Diving into High Impact Dollar News & Today's Trading Analysis! This week, brace yourself for major announcements like Unemployment Rate and NFP . Join me as we dissect the week ahead , exploring potential market movements amidst a flurry of impactful news releases. Gain invaluable insights into my analysis process, including key concepts in ICT. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your trading knowledge and strategies.
Leave your questions in the comments for personalized responses. Let's navigate the markets together!
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
GBPUSD | MY SHORT TERM VIEW | M30Why did the inducement fail? It failed because it was only minor/medium inducement. It gave a reaction, trapped traders to start selling. Not only support and resistance players got trapped but also people that look at liquidity (SMC etc.)
Before shorts I at least expect GU to fill the imbalance curve.
LQP = Liquidity Pool
2WT = 2 Way Trap
Arrows = inducement
A further breakdown of how I read the market and all the "lines"Key words to understand:
- Tapering
- Liquidity
- Tapering
- Tapering
It's important to understand how liquidity plays a role in moving price and what it actually means. In order for price to make a solid move anywhere, there has to be liquidity built up for price to grab (use) to break out of strong resistance levels (i.e. levels with lots of sellers ready to short when price gets there).
Tapering is a way of seeing a lack of liquidity by a certain side - if we begin tapering from a strong buying channel to a less strong buying channel, it typically means we are lacking liquidity to break out of that strong selling level (i.e. the top of a more tapered channel acts as a level of resistance because the more tapered it is (or the more horizontal it is), the more it lines up for all sellers to get in at the same price win the battle.
This all makes so much sense to me and it is the key for you to unlock the market . To be able to tell a story in every chart and understand who is in charge, why there in charge, and what each side has to do in order to win their next battle.
Please reach out with any questions, comments, etc. I am here for you !
Happy Trading :)
CADCHF SHORTEven though we have a high probability chance of going short from this zone at 0.65280. We have seen how price has decided to deliver price bearish. On this zone on the 5Min, price has already mitigated the Demand zone and its set to go bearish from my analysis. See where you come in and trail stop loss when it breaks through 0.64930 for the potential target at 0.64704
EURUSD 4 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 4 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bearish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which is currently bearish.
The Sub Internal Structure failed to continue bearish several times and there is a High Probability that we are currently targeting the Sub Structure High (Green Line) to continue the Bullish INT Structure and target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market.
BITCOIN VIEW | 15m | UPDATEFor now I'm still in the buys from the last idea that I posted.
From a psychological perspective people are most likely trying to catch the top of the BTC bullish movements which often leads to more movements to the other side that all the people are expecting.
My targets which I'd possibly look for shorts are 66k where is a Daily 2WT or 69k which is a liquidity pool. Let's see how it goes!
For first possible possible short term shorts I'd look at would be at least after raiding 64294.0.
What do you think?
GBPUSD These are the zones I will be looking for in GU! GU has not shown me any strength to the upside lately, so as long we are respecting the supply and demand zones we can sell and buy. The week is gonna show us some potential moves based on the news from the dollar. So respect the news, check the data and the zones, and trade outside the news. News can bring both good and bad trading conditions. Remember to stay disciplined and don't try your luck instead try your edge! If you do that, the results can be rewarding!
EURUSD 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 Weekly Analysis - EU Rate / US NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
(Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.
3.
With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from which resulted in a Bearish CHoCH.
Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation / INT Pullback
2.
Within the Daily Bearish Swing we reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone and formed a bearish iBOS confirming the Swing Pullback is over and we are Pro Bearish Swing and starting the Continuation Phase targeting the Weak Swing Low.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected a Pullback.
After mitigating the Daily Demand zone we formed a Bullish CHoCH which confirmed the INT Structure Pullback Phase started.
Expectations is set now for the INT Structure Pullback Phase to continue to the INT EQ up to the Daily/Weekly Supply. But be mindful that the Swing Bearish continuation can continue at any time.
There is no HP POI for Shorts up to the Daily/Weekly Supply Zones.
IMO Price could continue up to sweep LIQ from the INT Momentum Phase that leaded to the iBOS before we continue down.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD Asia Whipsaw? | my short term viewTwo scenarios in my head. The more probable for me is that EU would go up now because we would be trading away from the last external inducement.
The second one would be if EU didn't have enough demand, supply could possibly exceed demand and break through.
Let's see how it goes. What do you think?
LQP = Liquidity Pool
Arrows = Inducement Points
2WT = 2 Way Trap
GBPUSD: Potential Sell OppotunityI am currently anticipating a s ell opportunity during the New York Session, aiming for a sell-side draw towards the Engineered Liquidity, represented by the relatively lows. We have observed the mitigation of an H1 Inducement Order Block (Internal Liquidity), indicating a draw towards the Lows (External Liquidity).
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
BTCUSD SHORT TERM VIEW | M15From the technical perspective this looks like a perfect setup.
From a psychological perspective people are most likely trying to catch the top of the BTC bullish movements which often leads to more movements to the other side that all the people are expecting.
My targets which I'd possibly look for shorts are 66k where is a Daily 2WT or 69k which is a liquidity pool. Let's see how it goes!
GBPJPY Short Term view | m15Two scenarios in my mind. GJ respects the retracement box, and goes down for the imbalance.
Second one is demand exceeds supply. Possible buys at the retracement. This is the only case that SnR could work.
What do you think about GBPJPY?
LQP = Liquidity Pool
Arrows = Inducement Points
2WT = 2 Way Trap