Liquidity
XAUUSD BUY & SELL Scenario Hello Friends,
Another Gold analysis , So market is currently at 2065, our immediate supply level is 2068 which market has already reacted to. Should price go up then area around 78-81 would be good for a sell and also area around 84-88.
In case dollar strengthen we should expect a drop to around 55 and 45
So as always make sure you have these levels around for a trade but add your own logic and intuition into it.
Be honorable.
MMBM for January.I'm not sure about what the first quarter of the year will bring, but I would like to see a bullish response towards the weekly gap. If I'm correct, we are in the 2nd re-accumulation stage of a Market Maker model on the 1D timeframe, so the price should make a strong upward move. In case the idea is invalidated, I'll be looking at the sell-side liquidity below 2144.5.
See weekly chart for context:
Trading on Holidays: Liquidity and Spreads
When trading forex, it's essential to check spreads, especially during holidays.
Trading forex during holidays can be a bit more challenging due to reduced liquidity in the market.
Liquidity refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold without causing a significant change in price. During holidays, liquidity can be lower as many traders and financial institutions take time off, leading to fewer participants in the market.
Lower liquidity can directly impact the spread, which is the difference between the bid and ask price of a currency pair. In times of reduced liquidity, spreads tend to widen, meaning the difference between the buying and selling price of a currency pair increases. This can lead to higher trading costs for traders, as wider spreads require a larger price movement in the underlying asset before a trade becomes profitable.
It's essential for traders to be aware of these potential spread increases during holidays to avoid unexpected trading costs.
Additionally, wider spreads can also lead to slippage , where a trade is executed at a different price than expected. This can further impact trading results, especially during fast-moving markets with low liquidity.
Therefore, checking spreads during holidays is crucial for forex traders to anticipate potential increases in trading costs and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
On TradingView, you can check the spreads in the top left corner. There you can find bid, ask prices and the spread between them.
It's important to factor in the impact of wider spreads on profitability and risk management when trading during these periods. By staying informed about spread changes during holidays, traders can make more informed decisions and better navigate the challenges of lower liquidity in the forex market.
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XAUUSD BUY & SELLHello Friends,
In this analysis as always i have multiple areas of sell and buy. To begin with currently price is at area 31 which is a buy side level, just below it exist level 26 which is also a potential winner. should price go up level 39 -42 is a supply zone and just above it there is a QM level which price reacted to yesterday and it would be second reaction(risky).
* As always make sure you pay attention to the news which is going to be published later this afternoon. *
Be honorable
EURUSD 22 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PCE / Last Post 2023This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones and currently close to the Weak Swing High.
Price reacted as expected from the 4H demand zone and we are currently in the same momentum to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
In my POV the current reaction from the 4H/Daily Supply zones is not yet reflecting as a rejection as the reaction didn't achieve anything significant even no Fractal CHoCH. So as long we stay bullish and demand holding we are still solidly bullish.
Also as we are approaching the end of the year, moves will not be in momentum so i recommend to better observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
We created a BOS as expected and we are in the Swing continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
After a BOS we expect a pullback and first sign will be a Bearish CHoCH to confirm the INT High. But be mindful that we are in 4H Swing Continuation to i don't expect much pullback before we take out the 4H Weak Swing High.
A note from yesterday that the Internal to Internal Structure (Was mapped in Green) became now the Internal Structure.
EURUSD 21 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US GDPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 21 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
NOTE
Nothing changed much. Price still ranging without any clear momentum. It's the end of the year and with thin liquidity we will have such behaviors.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones and currently close to the Weak Swing High.
Price reacted as expected from the 4H demand zone and we are currently in the same momentum to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
In my POV the current reaction from the 4H/Daily Supply zones is not yet reflecting as a rejection as the reaction didn't achieve anything significant even no Fractal CHoCH. So as long we stay bullish and demand holding we are still solidly bullish.
Also as we are approaching the end of the year, moves will not be in momentum so i recommend to better observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
INT INT Bullish
2.
After the Swing BOS price is currently in a Pullback Phase. INT structure turned bearish to facilitate the Swing Pullback.
Price currently is ranging due to the Pullback Phase and the Bullish Continuation.
Still our expectations is that price going to target the 15m / 4H Weak Swing High. This view will be invalidated temporarily if we created a bearish iBOS (Break of INT Low) which will lead to a deep pullback.
As i'm expecting price will not be clear as we are close to year end and liquidity becoming thin. Observation and working on personal improvements is the best practice currently.
EURUSD 20 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU/US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones and currently close to the Weak Swing High.
Price reacted as expected from the 4H demand zone and we are currently in the same momentum to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
In my POV the current reaction from the 4H/Daily Supply zones is not yet reflecting as a rejection as the reaction didn't achieve anything significant even no Fractal CHoCH. So as long we stay bullish and demand holding we are still solidly bullish.
Also as we are approaching the end of the year, moves will not be in momentum so i recommend to better observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
INT INT Bullish
2.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirms a Swing High.
We are currently in the Swing pullback phase which means we are in a short term bearish momentum to facilitate the Swing pullback.
We have some potential supply zones for Shorts to play the Swing Pullback as long we didn't reach the Swing EQ/Discount.
We had mitigated the extreme supply withing the INT structure but the INT INT Structure is Still Solid Bullish. We need an iiBOS to confirm that the INT pullback is over and we can look for Shorts to play the 15m Swing Pullback.
But be mindful that we are in the 4H Bullish Continuation Phase and we are targeting the Weak Swing High on 4H and also on 15m, so Shorts are risky that's why we need a solid structure breaks to confirm the bearish move.
EURUSD 19 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR CPI This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 19 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
NOTE:
Nothing changed since yesterday, price is ranging within a tide range and maybe with CPI today we can see some movement.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Weak Swing High.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones formed when we started the Swing Pullback.
Currently price at a 4H Demand zone and the Zone low is the current Liq which price could sweep and continue up again targeting the Weak Swing High.
As we are approaching the end of the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirms a Swing High.
We are currently in the Swing pullback phase which means we are in a short term bearish momentum to facilitate the Swing pullback.
We have some potential supply zones for Shorts to play the Swing Pullback as long we didn't reach the Swing EQ/Discount.
I prefer the upper 2 zones as they are positioned in the Premium and they can potentially categorized as FLIP zones.
For Swing bullish continuation, I'm looking on the 4H/15m Demand zone to look for reaction from for Longs as long the Strong Swing Low will Hold.
High and Low Liquidity Pivots. Which ones do I choose?Welcome to the coffee shop everybody this is your host and Baristo Eric, and I'm here today to let you guys know about the difference between high liquidity and low liquidity pivots and when I say pivots I mean price levels in the market. I want you to keep in mind that this trick works on all time frames it doesn't matter what time frame you're looking at but it certainly works best if you're comparing the high time frame to the low time frame that you're trading on.
This is a price action trick and strategy that you do not need an indicator for. Which means you can never get this wrong as you long as you follow these rules but the minute you try using an indicator for this you're going to miss out on some important details.
Now obviously there's a few rules that you need to follow when you're looking for high liquidity or low liquidity pivots and in the image above you should be able to see it but in the text below I'll give you my breakdown of the 123 rule that you can really follow to understand what you're looking for.
Here's a few rules to follow:
1. Bullish candles make high pivots
2. Bearish candles make low pivots
3.the length of the Wick of the candle is the trigger to tell you what you're looking for.
You cannot find low or high liquidity in a market during the trend. You can only see it after the trend has finished and you are either currently ranging or you are in the alternate trend meaning you were in a downtrend and now you're in an uptrend or a sideways market. You want to look for these liquidity types in the previous trend but using the strategy in this video you can also find high and low liquidity in arranging markets simply by looking at the ranging market that previously took place.
The trick to finding liquidity in the market goes like this:
Finding Sell Liquidity (Resistance) in previous market moves.
If you were in a downtrend and now it has completed you can look backwards at that downtrend and find all the bullish candles that will reflect the rules you were looking for.
Look at the downtrend and find the bullish candles.
You want the bullish candles that had swing highs and their upper Wick is longer than their lower Wick.
If the previous market was an uptrend you simply wanna do the opposite:
and previously up trending market you wanna find all the bearish candles and those bearish candles need to have a swing low Wick plus the Wick on the bottom must be longer than the Wick on top. These will reflect your SUPPORT levels (Buy Liquidity)
One of the questions often asked is what do you do with these levels once you find them.
Once you find low liquidity levels you wanna mark them this way you can treat them as plausible breakout areas meaning that with low liquidity in these areas price will reach those areas later on and price will continue to move through them because there are very few participants trying to buy or sell in a low liquidity area.
High liquidity area however simply means there is a lot of volume lot of activity and when price reaches back to these levels that price will either stall or reverse at these levels.
High liquidity areas also mean that these are banks and institutions trading at these levels so price can pull away from it retest and then come back to it for a very large move initiated by that same level.
NZDCAD BUY SIGNALThis setup has been analysed on multiple timeframes. On the 4hr you can see there is a change of character as trend breaks to upside. Overall trend when zooming out was also on uptrend. I have drawn an order block on 1hr timeframe that includes imbalance. Enter when market opens and gap closed. Targeting the order block on daily timeframe which also has imbalance to be filled (0.84435)
EURUSD ,. Looking Attractive Hello Guys . On EURUSD we Have a Good Day Trading Selling Opportunity, Which the Market Have Been Trending Up and Finally Switch to The Downside Plus The Support of The Higher Time Frame Reacting From a Strong Supply Area On The Higher Time frames and am Expecting a Pullback to One of The Supply Zone and Continue The Sell to The Down side.
Drop your Opinion on The Comments Section ..Thanks
EURUSD 18 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Weak Swing High.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones formed when we started the Swing Pullback.
Currently price at a 4H Demand zone and the Zone low is the current Liq which price could sweep and continue up again targeting the Weak Swing High.
As we are approaching the end of the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirms a Swing High.
We are currently in the Swing pullback phase which means we are in a short term bearish momentum to facilitate the Swing pullback.
We have some potential supply zones for Shorts to play the Swing Pullback as long we didn't reach the Swing EQ/Discount.
I prefer the upper 2 zones as they are positioned in the Premium and they can potentially categorized as FLIP zones.
For Swing bullish continuation, I'm looking on the 4H/15m Demand zone to look for reaction from for Longs as long the Strong Swing Low will Hold.
3.
Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.
4.
Extreme Demand zone to hold if the 15m Swing will continue Bullish.
Bitcoin @ key support level: $41.7k. High liquidity zone nearingToday I was trading NASDAQ:MARA puts expecting breach of $41.7k. While that didn't happen during the day, my puts still have a chance over the weekend. Let's take a look at the possibilities.
Let's look at this chart below:
First let's look at the diamond top - this is one of the most bearish patterns in my opinion and a strong indication of a major trend reversal.
Followed by the "h-pattern" - this is a mix of bear flag/ headshoulders and not a very known bearish pattern since it's basically a combination of a few bearish patterns. Easily identifiable as a lowercase H.
Our key support here is $41711-ish. Take a look at the wick zone that I highlighted. That'll be pretty difficult to breach at first but if we test that level again, will be a major stop loss raid.
Should be clear skies with no support till 40.6k.
The real challenge is 40.1k. That dip will get eaten up reaaaalllll quick. There might already be limit buys in that zone. Easy money if you're daytrading here.
There's soft support @ 41.4k but it'll be taken down quickly if we breach 41.7k.
I'd be a strong buyer @ low 38k. While it's possible, I don't see a reason to slide to that level yet, unless there's FOMO-selling.
The bull case is that 41.7k acts as a high liquidity zone and instead of being breached, it rockets from here. Given that possibility, I didn't swing a whole lot in NASDAQ:MARA puts.
We'll see.
As always, follow/ like/ support for some nice trades when market is open. I usually target AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:QQQ
Cheers & GL.
EURUSD 18 - 22 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - 2 Weeks for 2023 End!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 18 - 22 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
2.
After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
3.
Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone.
Expectations are set now that we are targeting the Weak INT Low following the Bearish INT Structure.
Price is approaching a weekly demand area which can provide a reaction.
4.
Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
OF Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
After BOS we expect a pullback
OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback.
With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High.
Price reached a daily demand zone where we have seen a solid reaction from to target the Weak INT High.
The mitigation of this daily demand zone could be the start of the Bullish continuation of the Daily INT Structure. But be mindful that the Daily Swing is Bearish, Reached the EQ and mitigated Daily/Weekly Supply zones, So we may have finished the Swing pullback and we are in the Swing bearish continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
Let's watch LTF to guide us.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ/Extreme
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High and maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful with the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Weak Swing High.
Price had mitigated the Daily/4H Supply zones formed when we started the Swing Pullback.
Currently price at a 4H Demand zone and the Zone low is the current Liq which price could sweep and continue up again targeting the Weak Swing High.
As we are approaching the end of the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD 15 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
2.
INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High maybe more above.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful the the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Swing extreme.
Our expectations that we will reach the Weak Swing High and extend more. But be mindful that there are no options for longs here as the move already started from the Swing Discount and currently we are at the extreme premium.
As we are at the end of the week and the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
Price still in Bullish continuation after the BOS creating Bullish Internal structures.
Price mitigated Daily/4H Supply zones and could start a pullback at anytime. A Bearish iBOS will be the signal that the pullback maybe starting.
Be mindful that the current bullish momentum is going to extend to reach the 4H Swing high so still we have another leg up before a pullback.
Always waiting for solid confirmation will be the right decision.
3.
Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.