Liquidity
EURUSD 16 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 16Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
We are at Swing Discount, Most probably that swing pullback will start once we get a CHoCH
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
5.
Price could be targeting the Liq. below the 4H previous INT Low above the 4H extreme demand zone for longs
15m
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the iBOS.
Current INT structure stil bearish, our expectation is that we will do Bullish iBOS to confirm the 15m Swing pullback is over and we will be targeting the Weak Swing High
3.
Internal to Internal turned bullish to facilitate the Internal Structure Pullback
Still bearish over all on 15m and waiting for Bullish Internal structure iBOS
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 13/10/2023My long position was stopped out earlier today at a 0.5% risk setting after. I still currently believe that the market will turn bullish and take out the upside liquidity so I will analyse the market over the next week and look for a potential re-entry or I will look for downside continuation if I can see the set up there. Win some and Lose some but consistency is key.
EURUSD 13 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is an intraday analysis for EURUSD on 15m and 4H chart based on Smart Money Concept (SMC)
15m:
1
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the iBOS.
As we are in Swing Discount the 15m and 4H Demand zones are currently providing opportunity for Longs to target the Swing High.
The concern now is that the INT is Bearish and current longs will be only a pullback to the bearish INT.
3
Internal structure turned bearish to confirm that the Swing pullback started
Chart:
4H:
1
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2
Price swept Liq from the previous INT low and broken and closed above the high forming another iBOS
3
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
Chart:
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 12/10/2023My Long position was triggered, which lined up with my analysis. Unfortunately my short position was not triggered on the way down, the gap between the market movement and my short entry was very small (Marked out by the small circle between the wick and the red line), I will have to look into my analysis and reevaluate my entry strategy/level as I missed a few pips as the short would’ve hit take profit with minimal to no drawdown. I have also set an alert for my partial profits level for my running long position which is at the lowest point in an imbalance which was created on the way down to my entry.
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 11/10/2023Unfortunately my take profit zone on my previous trade was mitigated throughout the day, however I have altered my take profit to the next liquidity point which was an imbalance a few pips above and I have also set the previous, now mitigated, take profit zone (marked by the red line) as an area for a quick short entry to take as I believe price will bounce off of this level and down to the next low to take out the downside liquidity before travelling back up to align with my original analysis.
BXY Analysis 10/10/2023As you can see with the current state of the BXY market, it is currently in and upwards trend creating higher lows consistently marked by the circles on the closes of the wicks. The red rectangle marks out the area where price was operating below my entry price on GBP/USD and as you can see the arrows show the date range that buyers and sellers were actually successfully transacting below this price as seen by the open and closed candles in this range. The total time spent with buyers and sellers transacting below this range was 8 days and 8 hours and this is the lowest it has transacted in the last 7 months. This is why I have set my stop loss around this area as I do not believe that price will transact much lower than this due to the large wicks you see which represent buyers and sellers not able to find fair value and price bouncing away instead of solid closes due to buyers and sellers being unable to find a price they are both happy to transact at.
DXY Analysis 10/10/2023This is just my brief analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY) to support my idea that the GBP/USD market will push to the downside then retrace up to the next liquidity point. As you can see the DXY is making lower highs on its way down, creating points of liquidity to be taken as it moves. I believe these points will be taken, creating a move to the upside taking out the stop losses above before coming back down.
Please note - The DXY moves inverse to the GBP/USD market.
GBP/USD Analysis 10/10/2023I have located a long position that I would like to take in the GBP/USD Market where I will target the next liquidity high point after I believe there will be a move to the downside to take out lower stop losses before the main move the upside. I have noticed points of liquidity on the British Pound Index (BXY) and the Dollar Index (DXY) that support this theory. I have set my entry off of an order block to the downside which I believe will be filled and I have placed my stop 10 pips below that and I am looking at around a 1:5 RR on this trade with 0.5% risk on my demo account.
XAU/USD Daily Analysis 10/10/2023During today’s analysis there has not been much movement in the market, however the market is creating new liquidity points by forming higher lows (where stop losses will lie below them) and higher highs, which looks like an uptrend is forming. However I will be looking for a liquidity grab into the daily demand zone over the next few days before I will look to enter a long position into the next liquidity point.
Side note - I may potentially look for short positions as the liquidity is grabbed based on market movements and/or order blocks or other confluences.
XAU/USD Daily Analysis 09/10/2023With my Daily Analysis of charts I have marked out some areas of liquidity on the XAU/USD market (e.g. a double top on the H1, a few unmitigated Asian session highs and a few unmitigated imbalances to the upside). The market appears as though it will make an upwards move over the next few days however I can see liquidity being created on the downside as the market moves upwards. Until I can see a clear entry I will continue with my analysis and wait for clear confluences and indications.
❗ USDJPY: Unimaginable Highs ⚡Crazy right?!😲 Who would have thought we would be back trading at the 1998 highs? Well, here we are.
Sooooo what is the game plan now?
Ideally, we need to figure out a zone to sell from! 👇
So let's figure that out together:
Where is everyone trying to sell from currently?
⚡ The supply zone we are currently trading in.
Where will everyone's stop losses be if they are selling now in this supply zone?
⚡ Above the high.
So where can we expect liquidity and stop loss hunting?
⚡ Above the high.
Great! Now wait for the liquidity grab and begin your search for possible sells once that is complete.
Happy trading folks!! 😀😁😆
NZDUSD: Failing Order Block ❌Price is quickly approaching the main order block/demand zone and buyers will begin scaling in shortly. Personally, I believe price is going to completely disregard this demand and collapse straight through it. With this thesis, we could potentially look at selling into the liquidity sweep from this region.
Nas100 Breakdown, Is The Bullish Trend Over ?Hello Traders , This is FX:NAS100 BreakDown on the HTF so the Summary of this is this we starting breaking down some Weekly Structure and we found a monthly FVG that gonna be filled is Aligned perfectly on SSL but before that we gonna see a kind of Manipulation before the distrubution to the downside so yeah the Bullish movement is over after the Manipulation happens!
#OIL selling opportunityHi dear traders and colleagues, lets look at oil and see if there is any selling opportunity in this commodity or not.
As you can see on the chart we have done a research and find out that any time when stochastic indicator is in overbought in Weekly timeframe and cross below cross below its signal line we have seen a bearish move by the price.
Other things that gives us more confluences to take this trade is the fact that price currently is testing resistance area and also close to tentative bearish trendline.
from fundamentally perspective also we know although we shortage supply by the side of suppliers especially from Saudi Arabia but the fact that we are close to the end of hiking cycle by the central banks and as a result we can see some damages in economic which cause lower demand for the oil.
These are all showing that at least having a bearish correction move in Oil prices is possible and even if price wants to go higher we can have correction from this area.
An Extreme GAP Strategy for #bitcoin #btcIn the chart you' ll see the CME GAPs. Market maker will want to price #btc to these zones. There' s also a huge liquidation these points and also 23500. Sooner or later, these three prices must be visited. The second variation may be like : First 23500 then 20000s and then 35K.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. These are only my notes. DYOR.
10/2/23: Sell Setup on SPX10/2/23: Sell Setup: I was looking for a continuation set up on SPX. TK/SY session set a small range that held London but was taken out in the premarket session. This left a 1H/15m-FVG set up with a -OB on the 1H. Price trades into the 15m-FVG (L) and pushed down and failed to make a new low followed by EQLs being set in NY open session. Once the EQLs were made we traded back into the 15m-FVG(MT) and tapped into the mid point. I didn’t see the clean enter in the 15m but the 5m chart gave a great entry that I missed. My targets were the PDL, EQLs/Thurs PDL, and PWL.
No entry on the setup, had two attended two meetings back to back and I had to present on the calls.
This was the 1st set up I was looking for but I was on a work call and miss this one. This gave confirmations on the 5m/15m charts and this would have been a trade that would have hit the first target of 4274.08 then BE on the remaining.
This was the second entry I was looking for, higher into the 15m-FVG. NAS was also reaching into its own FVG which gave me a more validation this was a good setup. But as soon as we passed the mid point at 4297.80 it tanked without confirmations on any of the LTFs, even as far as the 1m chart.
This was the final entry, later than I would normally be looking for anything but also no confirmation and this was a good thing because the price could not take out the low and pushed back up off to the DL.
Sell
Entry: 4293.05,4297.80, 4284.39
SL: 4300,4303.65,4293.05
Targets: 4274.08, 4263.03,4238.23
We’re pushing up for now, we have NY session high, Weekly opening price, and Friday PDH
15m chart:
GbpJpy This is what makes the most sense to me heading in to October...
Monthly wicks respected although the monthly candle actually closed in it's lower 3rd I'm bullish on all TF's
181.60 is a valid MP, OB, TL/Retest, FVG and last weeks opening price...
IF we pull back this far we will also be hitting the 0.7 fib level and I fully expect this level to hold
Accumulation-Manipulation-Trend