#GBPCAD selling opportunityHello, traders and friends.
Let's analyze the GBPCAD chart, where we believe there might be a compelling selling opportunity.
In the Daily timeframe, you can see that the price has already broken the market structure to the downside. Since the low formed on September 28th, we've been in what we believe is a bullish corrective phase. Consequently, we are now interested in a selling position.
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, we notice a double top formation that resulted in a lower low, indicating the possibility of bearish continuation, aligning with our higher time frame daily trend. Following this, the price has been moving upwards in a bullish corrective manner, forming a short-term rising channel. Last week, this channel also broke to the downside.
In our view, this recent bullish movement resembles a liquidity-taking activity, and we are keen to observe any rejections from the level marked by the arrow on the chart, with the intent to consider selling.
Additionally, we have identified several resistance factors within a small zone, including the 4-hour and daily timeframe 200EMA, a supply area in the 4-hour timeframe, and the previous high where many traders have placed their stop-loss orders just above it. This presents an opportunity for banks to potentially extract liquidity.
If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment or share your idea with me.
Liquidity
FANTOM BULLISH SETUP🚀🚀🚀The Liquidity Abyss:
At the lower price levels, FANTOM (FTM) presents a peculiar scenario: a deep well of liquidity that seems resistant to being outmatched. This situation can be seen as the result of strategic market dynamics and could pave the way for a promising uptrend. 🌊🚀
Imbalance as a Catalyst:
The key to unlocking the bullish potential lies in mastering the weekly imbalance at the $0.5 level. An imbalance refers to a situation where a significant excess of either buy or sell orders accumulates at a specific price point. Breaking through this imbalance can trigger substantial price movements. 📊🌕
Trading Strategy:
Monitor Weekly Imbalance: Keep a close eye on the weekly imbalance at the $0.5 level. A successful conquest can be a defining moment for FANTOM's price.
Risk Management: Implement solid risk management strategies to protect your investments in the event of unexpected price movements.
Fundamental Awareness: Stay updated on FANTOM's fundamentals and market news that may influence its trajectory.
Conclusion:
FANTOM's journey reflects the intricate dance of liquidity and imbalances in the cryptocurrency market. The promise of a bullish surge, driven by a well-timed strategic move, is an enticing prospect.
Remember, the crypto market is rife with complexities, and the potential for manipulation always exists. But, with a keen eye, a well-thought-out strategy, and a cautious approach, you can navigate these waters effectively.
The liquidity abyss might just be the starting point for a remarkable journey ahead.
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EURUSD 23 Oct 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
INT Low is confirmed after a fractal CHoCH and we are now in the INT Bearish structure pullback phase.
Demand is holding and Supply is failing which means that the INT Pullback is still active and we may reach the INT Extreme Supply zone. But be mindful that the swing is bullish and we maybe targeting the Weak Swing high.
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs. And current PA is showing that demand zones are holding well and we are targeting the Weak Swing High.
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
15m Char Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Sub Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the Bearish iBOS.
INT turned bullish to confirm the 15m Swing pullback is over and we are in Pro Swing continuation to target the 15m Weak Swing High.
After the recent iBOS, we are expecting a pullback and the INT low should hold to continue the Pro Swing upside move.
3.
INT extreme demand for better longs after confirmation.
Trading sessions liquidity huntLiquidity serves as the driving force behind all markets. The fundamental driver of any price shift involves the creation and aggregation of liquidity, with the objective of accumulating or distributing positions among market participants.
Accumulating positions necessitates counter liquidity to fulfill orders and initiate positions in the desired volume. Liquidity is therefore established within specific price ranges, with the intention of later manipulating it toward the accumulation of counter liquidity, ultimately achieving the goals of order fulfillment.
The bulk of liquidity, including stop orders and liquidations, tends to congregate around technical and psychological support/resistance levels, which can be observed retrospectively through the analysis of clusters and volume profiles.
Engaging in trading based on a one-time reaction, characterized by a substantial cluster forming during the breach of a particular price level, can lead to premature entry and potential losses, driven by inaccurate expectations of either a price breakthrough or deviation from calculated reference points
- An approach that leans towards caution, involving the selection of a trading setup once liquidity has been obtained from the previous trading session's highs/lows within the prevailing trend. This process is carried out while ensuring alignment between higher and lower timeframes.
- The primary objective is capital preservation, which is accomplished by minimizing risk to the range of 0.5-1% per trade and adjusting open positions to the break-even point after confirming the trend's structure.
- The strategy opts for an entry technique that boasts a high mathematical expectation of success.
- Fresh positions are initiated exclusively during periods of elevated market volatility, particularly during the optimal trade time (OTT) sessions in London and New York.
The focus is directed towards trading setups featuring risk:reward ratios ranging from 1:3 to 1:10.
Given the dynamics of market participants accumulating and distributing their positions during trading sessions, it's reasonable to assert that liquidity forms outside the fluctuations of these sessions. This liquidity is typified by stop orders and position liquidation within the scope of a micro-trend.
Consequently, it can be inferred that the commencement of the subsequent session will involve manipulation. The aim of this manipulation is to interact with such liquidity to amass positions in the opposite direction. Coupled with heightened volatility during the session's commencement, this provides opportunities to initiate positions before the impending price movement.
The primary criterion for entering a position will be the disruption of the existing structure following the capture of liquidity. Additional factors might encompass corrective momentum, liquidity in the opposing direction acting as an attraction for distributing accumulated positions during manipulation, and the formation of trading ranges with deviations, among others.
Entry into a position occurs on a lower time frame, emanating from an untested supply/demand zone. An additional aspect to consider is the presence of local liquidity before reaching the entry point.
Market Update - October 20th
False ETF news gives bitcoin a boost: Crypto markets were frenzied on Tuesday after Cointelegraph posted an unconfirmed tweet that the SEC had approved a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin prices jumped over $2,000 USD in minutes before the news was deemed false.
GBTC discount to NAV continues to tighten: The discount between shares of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the net asset value of the fund is at its lowest level in almost two years. After starting the year at a nearly 50% discount, GBTC’s discount has moved to ~13%, reflecting increased expectations that a bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the near future.
Uniswap introduces 0.15$ swap fee: The move was described as an effort to “sustainably fund operations.” UNI is trading about even over the past seven days following the news.
The European Central Bank moves closer to a digital euro: The bloc’s central bank announced that it had moved from the investigation phase to the preparation phase of its digital euro project. ECB president Christine Lagarde tweeted that they “envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments.”
Treasury yields continue upward trajectory, and Powell sees continued strength in the US economy: US treasury yields have continued to put pressure on equities, with the 10-year treasury touching 4.98% for the first time since 2007. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the continued strength of the US economy may warrant further tightening, but didn’t foreshadow an immediate policy shift.
🏖️ Topic of the Week: Liquidity Pools
⏭️ Read more here
ETC grow After Liquidity Sweeps 📈💡Ethereum Classic (ETC) has been quietly making waves, with a remarkable ascent that follows liquidity sweeps of essential support levels. Similar to Solana (SOL), it's primed for what might be another liquidity sweep around critical levels, potentially sparking a new phase of growth. This phenomenon underscores the pivotal role of liquidity in driving price movements. 📈💡
Liquidity Sweeps: Powering Price Action
Liquidity sweeps are market dynamics in action. They involve brief, intentional price surges that clear out buy or sell orders clustered around specific price levels. These sweeps often precede significant price surges, highlighting the profound influence of liquidity as the driving force behind price action. 🚀💰
What Lies Ahead: The Next Move
For ETC, the anticipation of another liquidity sweep, possibly around a pivotal level, could be a game-changer. This event may set the stage for another upswing as orders are cleared out. However, the cryptocurrency market is inherently dynamic and occasionally unpredictable. Staying vigilant and adjusting your trading strategy is essential. 📊🔍
Trading Strategy:
Exercise Patience and Caution: If you're considering a position, it's wise to wait for the liquidity sweep event to materialize and look for corresponding price action confirmation.
Implement Risk Management: Mitigate risk using essential tools like stop-loss orders, which help protect your investments.
Stay Informed Fundamentally: Keep yourself well-informed about Ethereum Classic's fundamentals and any news that could impact its price.
Conclusion:
In the cryptocurrency realm, liquidity plays a paramount role in shaping price movements. Liquidity sweeps, much like with SOL, can be pivotal moments in catalyzing growth. Yet, it's crucial to remember that they are not infallible.
As a crypto trader or investor, it's essential to exercise caution, stay informed, and adapt your strategy to the ever-evolving market conditions. While liquidity provides the fuel, it's your strategy that guides the ship.
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EURUSD 20 Oct 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
As expected, price made a CHoCH and confirmed INT Low. we are now in bearish continuation of the INT structure and price maybe targeting the INT Low.
We are at Swing Discount, Most probably that swing pullback will end and we can see Demand is holding which is a good sign that the swing pullback may have ended and we are targeting the Weak Swing High
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
15m Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Sub Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the Bearish iBOS.
INT structure turned bullish aligning with the 4H and the Daily request. My expectation that we are continuing bullish to target the 15m and the 4H Weak Swing High.
EURUSD 19 Oct 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 19 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
As expected, price made a CHoCH and confirmed INT Low. we are now in bearish continuation of the INT structure and price maybe targeting the INT Low.
We are at Swing Discount, Most probably that swing pullback will end and we can see Demand is holding which is a good sign that the swing pullback may have ended and we are targeting the Weak Swing High
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
5.
Price could be targeting the Liq. below the 4H previous INT Low above the 4H extreme demand zone for longs
15m Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
Sub Internal Bearish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the Bearish iBOS.
INT structure turned bearish which complicate the current view now and for me i'll be waiting for INT structure to turn bullish to continue looking for buys.
LONG AND SHORT on XAUUSDHi Guy, I'm back with another analysis on gold. Previous trading idea was indeed profitable and more than 100 pips was gained. So in this trading idea I have the 1947 area which has proved itself once on September 20th and today could give us a another chance to go short but as always check the lower time frame for secure entry.
If market sells off I have multiple demand areas which could yield some profit. So make sure you have these areas on your chart and trade upon them should fit your trading system.
Be honorable
EURUSD 18 Oct 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
As expected, price made a CHoCH and confirmed INT Low. we are now in bearish continuation of the INT structure and price maybe targeting the INT Low.
We are at Swing Discount, Most probably that swing pullback will end and we can see Demand is holding which is a good sign that the swing pullback may have ended and we are targeting the Weak Swing High
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
5.
Price could be targeting the Liq. below the 4H previous INT Low above the 4H extreme demand zone for longs
15m Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the Bearish iBOS.
INT structure turned Bullish to confirm that the 15m Swing pullback is over and we will be targeting the Weak Swing High.
3.
Internal to Internal turned bearish to facilitate the Internal Structure Pullback.
Demand Zones now will provide opportunities to continue the INT and Swing Bullish continuation.
4.
The bullish INT structure is clear but i'm having the concern that the current INT Bullish structure is not showing that solid volatile trending which is corrective in it's behavior.
But following the OF, we still solidly bullish until we get demand failing and structure turns bearish.
EURUSD 16 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 16Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
We are at Swing Discount, Most probably that swing pullback will start once we get a CHoCH
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
5.
Price could be targeting the Liq. below the 4H previous INT Low above the 4H extreme demand zone for longs
15m
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the iBOS.
Current INT structure stil bearish, our expectation is that we will do Bullish iBOS to confirm the 15m Swing pullback is over and we will be targeting the Weak Swing High
3.
Internal to Internal turned bullish to facilitate the Internal Structure Pullback
Still bearish over all on 15m and waiting for Bullish Internal structure iBOS
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 13/10/2023My long position was stopped out earlier today at a 0.5% risk setting after. I still currently believe that the market will turn bullish and take out the upside liquidity so I will analyse the market over the next week and look for a potential re-entry or I will look for downside continuation if I can see the set up there. Win some and Lose some but consistency is key.
EURUSD 13 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is an intraday analysis for EURUSD on 15m and 4H chart based on Smart Money Concept (SMC)
15m:
1
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the iBOS.
As we are in Swing Discount the 15m and 4H Demand zones are currently providing opportunity for Longs to target the Swing High.
The concern now is that the INT is Bearish and current longs will be only a pullback to the bearish INT.
3
Internal structure turned bearish to confirm that the Swing pullback started
Chart:
4H:
1
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2
Price swept Liq from the previous INT low and broken and closed above the high forming another iBOS
3
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs
4
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
Chart:
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 12/10/2023My Long position was triggered, which lined up with my analysis. Unfortunately my short position was not triggered on the way down, the gap between the market movement and my short entry was very small (Marked out by the small circle between the wick and the red line), I will have to look into my analysis and reevaluate my entry strategy/level as I missed a few pips as the short would’ve hit take profit with minimal to no drawdown. I have also set an alert for my partial profits level for my running long position which is at the lowest point in an imbalance which was created on the way down to my entry.
GBP/USD Daily Analysis 11/10/2023Unfortunately my take profit zone on my previous trade was mitigated throughout the day, however I have altered my take profit to the next liquidity point which was an imbalance a few pips above and I have also set the previous, now mitigated, take profit zone (marked by the red line) as an area for a quick short entry to take as I believe price will bounce off of this level and down to the next low to take out the downside liquidity before travelling back up to align with my original analysis.
BXY Analysis 10/10/2023As you can see with the current state of the BXY market, it is currently in and upwards trend creating higher lows consistently marked by the circles on the closes of the wicks. The red rectangle marks out the area where price was operating below my entry price on GBP/USD and as you can see the arrows show the date range that buyers and sellers were actually successfully transacting below this price as seen by the open and closed candles in this range. The total time spent with buyers and sellers transacting below this range was 8 days and 8 hours and this is the lowest it has transacted in the last 7 months. This is why I have set my stop loss around this area as I do not believe that price will transact much lower than this due to the large wicks you see which represent buyers and sellers not able to find fair value and price bouncing away instead of solid closes due to buyers and sellers being unable to find a price they are both happy to transact at.
DXY Analysis 10/10/2023This is just my brief analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY) to support my idea that the GBP/USD market will push to the downside then retrace up to the next liquidity point. As you can see the DXY is making lower highs on its way down, creating points of liquidity to be taken as it moves. I believe these points will be taken, creating a move to the upside taking out the stop losses above before coming back down.
Please note - The DXY moves inverse to the GBP/USD market.
GBP/USD Analysis 10/10/2023I have located a long position that I would like to take in the GBP/USD Market where I will target the next liquidity high point after I believe there will be a move to the downside to take out lower stop losses before the main move the upside. I have noticed points of liquidity on the British Pound Index (BXY) and the Dollar Index (DXY) that support this theory. I have set my entry off of an order block to the downside which I believe will be filled and I have placed my stop 10 pips below that and I am looking at around a 1:5 RR on this trade with 0.5% risk on my demo account.
XAU/USD Daily Analysis 10/10/2023During today’s analysis there has not been much movement in the market, however the market is creating new liquidity points by forming higher lows (where stop losses will lie below them) and higher highs, which looks like an uptrend is forming. However I will be looking for a liquidity grab into the daily demand zone over the next few days before I will look to enter a long position into the next liquidity point.
Side note - I may potentially look for short positions as the liquidity is grabbed based on market movements and/or order blocks or other confluences.
XAU/USD Daily Analysis 09/10/2023With my Daily Analysis of charts I have marked out some areas of liquidity on the XAU/USD market (e.g. a double top on the H1, a few unmitigated Asian session highs and a few unmitigated imbalances to the upside). The market appears as though it will make an upwards move over the next few days however I can see liquidity being created on the downside as the market moves upwards. Until I can see a clear entry I will continue with my analysis and wait for clear confluences and indications.