Does Bitcoin SLIDE into a bounce?Notice that there is no strong buying signal (green dot) on the candle following the strong selling (red dot). This is generally negative on the price indicating that there's more short-term downside to come.
However, it should be noted that the monthly current is still moving upwards suggesting that support is steadily increasing. As this continues, it makes a drop to the seasonal current that much less likely.
Once again, because the flow signal has not yet been negated, the overall trend is still bullish. We'd need to see a yellow dip signal indicating a withdrawing of liquidity to start looking more seriously towards the downside.
Liquidity
Bitcoin Next BIG MoveFollowing up on my earlier post, it's evident that the strong high tide signal persists, signaling upward resistance based on momentum dynamics.
Bear in mind, the flow signal remains unchallenged, as demonstrated by the price ascending back to the local high before retreating. This indicates the presence of a selling zone that must be surpassed before the price can progress upwards.
Looking at today's candle, there's a definitive sell signal exhibited by Energy (symbolized by a red dot over the candle). This implies that there's still substantial room for today's candle to decrease before the energy begins to fade.
Market Makers Buy And Sell ModelThe market Makers' Buy and Sell Model is a strategy that reveals the market maker algorithm model for price delivery.
Basically, there are 3 things market makers' algorithms do with price in every trading session, day, week, and month
Those 3 things are; Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution.
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
1. Accumulation: They accumulate liquidity through the delivery of a ranging market.
The purpose of delivering a ranging market is to induce both buyers and sellers to enter the market thinking that price will go in their direction.
How to Identify a Ranging Market: You know price is in a ranging market when you see obvious relative equal highs and lows price range.
In a ranging market, price swing points have relatively equal highs and lows, that is, the price is neither delivering a higher high nor a higher low.
2. Manipulation: After accumulating both buy and sell orders, they then manipulate the market to further induce another set of traders which are breakout traders.
But, that particular manipulation move is not their intended direction for the day. They only use it to gather liquidity, Which will then lead them to the next action which is to move and distribute prices in their real direction for the day.
Usually, when price breaks out of a ranging market, the break-out is a manipulation to further induce a new set of traders to enter the market, further proving liquidity for market makers' real intended direction.
3. Distribution: After manipulating the price to a particular direction different from their plan, they then distribute the price to their original intended direction.
e.g to buy, they will first sell the market and then buy at the discount price level.
You know a price distribution through clean candles that left imbalances behind and then break market structure away from the previous manipulation move structure high or low to form a new structure.
Example of Market Makers Buy and Sell Model as described on the chart.
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation: Price range for some time, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation: Price broke the high of the accumulation to take out Buyside liquidity and then create a new higher high and higher low. But it's a manipulation move.
Distribution: Price moves away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure, plus a short pullback, follow by a massive move to the downside to take out sell-side liquidity below.
Entry: Your entry should be inside the FVG created by price before the shift in market structure, you can set a limit order inside the fvg and place your stop loss at the high of the swing high created prior to the fvg and shift in market structure.
The same thing applies to a bullish market.
Basically, Marker makers push prices higher so they can sell the market at a premium, while they sell the market to lower prices so they can buy that market at very discount prices
This strategy can be used in any time frame and all markets including forex, crypto, stocks, future etc.
Follow me for more updates.
Feel free to ask me any questions in the comment.
ICT Power of 3 Strategy on GoldPower of 3 at work on Gold producing a 8.6RR move on 30/06/2023
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation : Price range during Asian session, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation : Price broke the low of the accumulation during London session to take out sell side liquidity and then fill the previous day imbalance.
Distribution : Price move away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure on 5m time frame, plus a short pull back, follow by a massive move to the upside during the New York session to take out buy side liquidity above.
Bitcoin to $200K: Liquidity PullbackLet's keep this short and sweet. Liquidity started receding back in March '23. This created a weak consolidation zone waiting for a catalyst to bring it lower. Looks like the Binance lawsuit might be it.
If this is so, then we should see a series of bad news one after the next resulting in CRYPTOCAP:BTC falling to the lustrum level. That would be the buying opportunity I've been waiting for. After that, more bad news should be met with resilience in the crypto market.
I expect the financial markets to have it's own flush between now and mid-September, at which point we can expect QE. Bitcoin would then be rocketing upwards until January where there will be a another pullback, then more QE, then Bitcoin soars to $200K by next summer. At least, that's what I'm seeing now.
Bitcoin Buy Signal FormingVery excited to see a buy signal forming on the weekly Bitcoin chart. It hasn't been confirmed yet, but we generally see a +30% rise within a month.
As I've mentioned before, following global dollar liquidity is a fantastically reliable way to track assets that are correlated with the flow of dollars within the system. And nothing is more correlated to liquidity than Bitcoin.
LTCUSD | Will halving get us through the resistance?Good morning,
One month to go until Litecoin Halving.
Since the beginning of the year, we have been constantly moving between the daily EMA 200 (white) and the EMA 800 (purple).
At the time of this idea, we are back below the EMA 200 and all of our EMAs have flattened out.
With such news events, existing resistances and old liquidity zones can usually be worked off well.
I am therefore preparing for two scenarios.
Scenario 1 (blue)
We come in July again significantly above the EMA200 and our short EMAS, 5+13 pull along.
In this I would use 50% of the capital that I want to use for this idea.
The other 50% when breaking above the EMA800.
Scenario 2 (orange)
We get a stop hunt of our range.
Everything from $71.60 would be a top price and would lead to 50% accumulation.
The other 50% would come into play should we get back into the range after such a stop hunt.
Price Targets :
Around $110 and between $140 and $150.
EUR/USD Short Idea - June 26 '23Potential trade to go short on EUR/USD, we just reacted on this orderblock that's the origin point of this strong bearish candle (imbalanced). We had a push higher on London Session (Potential fake move?) and a retest on the order block on NY Open with a bearish engulfing candle as confirmation. The retest of the zone is also the end of a Wolfe Wave pattern. Aiming at the next lows of liquidity for a potential 3.3R. Good luck traders!
GBPUSD Liquidity Inducement SetupThe price is in Daily Resistance Zones it is wise to be only interested in SELL positions
The price has made a Significant CHOCH at H4 and the ORDER BLOCK that caused this has been MITIGATED
BSL(Buy Side Liquidity) is made below the ORDER BLOCK and it is expected for the price to HUNT the BSL in order to continue it's downward move to reach DEMAND ZONES that were the ORIGINS of previous uptrend
the price obviously has BUY IMBALANCE and this acts like GRAVITY and pulls the price down to re-enter BUY ORDERS
BTCUSDT LIQUIDITY STRUCTUREBTCUSDT price has been experiencing upward movement toward the previous SELL IMBALANCE & LIQUIDITY VOID created by previous sharp SELL OFF , so it is wise to consider SELL around these levels
Also price is reaching the BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY above previous EQUAL HIGHS at 32500
there are still strong UNMITIGATED SUPPLY LEVELS on the way and it is smart to consider SELL POSITION to the target of UNMITIGATED DEMANDS and FVG's around 24k$ to 20k$
If market want to become BULLISH it must clear the SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY first , which this HAS NOT HAPPENED yet , so I'm waiting for SELL ENTRY above previous EQUAL HIGHS to the target of DEMANDS from previous upward move that they pull the price down like GRAVIGY
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis
June 20 - June 23, 2023
During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-.
Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week.
To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75.
The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50.
However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.
BTC Long, Market Shift? Volatility expectedMinor update to the previous idea.
BlackRock BTC Trust could change things, makes me wonder if they change their mind on whether it's ESG compliant.
This trade is more of a double-edged sword that is more profitable in longing for volatility rather than direction considering market forces at the moment. Expect at least a +- 20% price swing. Either we break through the first resistance band of 27k-32k and continue forward with a close above 26k today, or we drop to close the previous gap from 21.8k -20.8k with a close never reaching over 27.4k.
For now, we are at risk of seeing 20k considering current prices are under 27.4k and the sp500 being this overbought in the short term that could drag btc with it if a bull trap is in place in tradFi (not confirmed yet, mean rev. signals won't work). Overall, I'm bullish on BTC short term (possible that it could make a run up before sp500 contracts), and still remain bearish on SP500 long term (might switch to neutral if the west releases dependence on its manufacturing base toward China/the east, and innovation continues in the tech sector). Altcoins might not be able to catch up with BTC on the upswing, but most likely on the downswing if it so happens.
Trades:
Long #1
Entry: 26k
SL: 24k
TP: 34.5k, 40k
Long #2
Entry:20k
SL:18k
TP: 34k, 40k
Short
Entry: 26k
SL: 29k
TP:22k, 21k, 19k
EUR/USD - London Session June 16 '23EUR/USD trade idea. Main concept behind this is return to fair value after manipulation of the Asian high on London open. Trade is aggressive because price didn't close below the range when breaking out on m15, not confirming a strong market structure shift. On HTF we reacted on a nice FVG and we are looking for a bearish move below to seek balance around the 50% level of the swing we are currently on. Good luck traders
Learn to identify liquidity levels. Before we begin, we need to understand what liquidity is.
A market with high liquidity is one where there is a large number of buyers and sellers willing to trade in that particular asset. This means that there is a high availability of buy and sell orders, allowing transactions to be executed quickly and with minimal impact on prices.
Where are the most liquid points located on a chart?
These points are found at the highs and lows. This is because at these points, many people are waiting for the zone to act as support or resistance, or for the price to break the zone (breakout) to continue its direction. I always use daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes to identify these zones.
Why the liquid points are importante on a chart?
Liquidity is extremely important because it is the direction in which the price moves. The price will always move towards these points to attract liquidity to the market. Without liquidity, financial markets cannot function.
Which indicator can you use to identify liquidity levels?
Previous Days Week Highs & Lows by sbtnc
Certainly, this indicator will facilitate the process of identifying these points, but it will not identify all of them.
-----Remember, like everything in trading, this needs to be combined with other confluences. It won't work by itself.-----
Explanation of the example presented in the chart.
I had some strong confluences indicating that the price was likely to have a bullish move. As seen in the COT report, there was aggressive selling of JPY. One of the things that helped me take this trade with confidence is that, as you can see in the circle, there was a weekly and monthly high together without being cleared. This created a double top pattern. Since this was such a liquid point, it gave me the confidence that the price would move towards this point before changing direction. And it did exactly that after consolidating for several days. These liquidity points can be used as confluence in our analysis, as well as a potential take profit level.
EU tradeThis is a trade i held through sever midnight. was clutching straws on this on. trying to attack some liquidity that was previously left in asia session. Only thing i dont like is that DXY has hit a strong monthly area and may gain strength. i am already break even on this. it was 15 min poi, followed by 5 min mitigation trail. I talked about this trade set up in my previous video
GU trade ideaThis is what i am looking at on GBP/USD. In previous price action we took out a monthly liquidity and moved to the down side. We did take out a blot of liquidity to the down side so this area maybe exhausted, but never the less i am looking to take a trade from this area. DXY is in a very good position to gain strength, although we need to bare in mind we have got major news events today to trade with caution.