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Liquidity

🥇GOLD - The market is preparing for a recoveryGold is forming a false breakdown of a strong support line. The support and liquidity area formed forms a bullish rally. TA on the high timeframe: 1) False breakout. Price closes above the 1938 support line, gold may rise to 1950-1960 at the beginning of the trading week 2) Price is testing the liquidity area of 1942.8, the market may open with a gap or continue its growth if this resistance is broken. TA on the low timeframe: 1) A candle with a large shadow is forming on H4, the price closes close to the 1942 level after a false breakdown 2) The market is forming a potential to continue rising 3) Waiting for the trend resistance to be reached before considering any further setups. Key support📉: 1933 Key resistance📈: 1942
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
10
Global Liquidity vs BTCUSDIn this idea we'll have a look global liquidity vs BTCUSD on a quarterly timeframe. The main pane contains the bars of a new global liquidity formula discovered by Twitter TechDev_52. On top of the bars is a solid orange line which is BTCUSD both on quarterly timeframe. Also on the main pane is a value grid for global liquidity which is based on time and global liquidity closing values. The secondary panes show the DB ZPS RSI values of global liquidity and BTCUSD. The entire point of this idea is three factors; 1) showcase the beautiful cyclical nature of global liquidity and 2) to show the beautiful cyclical nature of BTCUSD and financially 3) the near 1-to-1 high timeframe cycle pattern matches. It's common theory that as global liquidity increases money flows into highly valuable assets and then trickles into secondary assets in a lagging manner. If this idea is correct, this would showcase the best periods to enter and exit assets from a very high level from an investment point of mind. To the investor these cyclical patterns are a gift that shows periods of wealth growing opportunities in traded assets. Enjoy!
TVC:CN10YLong
by thefluffyones
Things are LOOKING UP for BitcoinI've been looking for Bitcoin to head closer to the seasonal average around which I'd expect either a bullish or bearish liquidity signal from Flow. The signal hasn't appeared yet, but we're getting a nice slow bullish consolidation. Given Bitcoin's short history, it is a challenge to go back through the series to find comparable moments to use as inspiration. However, I believe we might be in a repeat right now of the 2020 Spring/Summer price action. What is appealing to me is how similar both liquidity profiles are. There's a need to adjust a bit because Flow markers can show up late if the moves are quick (as they were in 2020). Even so, it's pretty much dead on... - Same crash due to volatility/uncertainty suddenly skyrocketing - Same fall to the lustrum MA (orange) where the price bottoms - Same seasonal MA (purple) being used by the price to climb. - Same marginally improvement of liquidity conditions a few months later - Same time of year offset by about three months - Same price pattern All suggests that between September and November we could see a massive rally. Would it be a meteoric rise like we saw then? Probably not. But Bitcoin revisiting $48K... that's on the table.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sacredprofit
CADCHF LONG/BUY🔰 Pair Name : CAD/CHF 🔰 Time Frame : 4H/ DAILY 🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale 🔰 Direction : SHORT/SELL 📈From a fundamental perspective, the CAD (Canadian Dollar) and USD (United States Dollar) share a strong correlation due to their economic ties. The majority of Canada's trade is with the US, making it susceptible to economic events and policies in the US, which significantly impact the Canadian economy and the CAD's value. 💼💱 📊 Currently, DXY (US Dollar Index) is experiencing a correction after reaching a critical low on the Daily chart. On the other hand, CADCHF (Canadian Dollar against Swiss Franc) has reached the daily demand zone at the 0.64730 area. Yesterday, a bullish pin bar formed, followed by a green bull candle today, indicating potential upward movement. 📉📈 📉📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index) for CADCHF shows it is oversold, and the month-long price drop has created a significant market imbalance below. We expect CADCHF to move up to collect the market imbalance, targeting at least the Fibonacci level 38.2 around the 0.66145 area. After reaching the daily support at that zone, there may be a retest of the Fibonacci level 23.6% before continuing to rise towards the Fibonacci level 78.6% at the 0.67567 area. 🎯📉📈 💡 Traders should closely monitor these technical indicators and price movements to make informed decisions in their trading activities. Remember to apply risk management strategies and exercise caution when trading the financial markets. ⚠️👀📉📈
Long
by Moon_SmartMoney
4
NZDCHF LONG/ BUY🔰 Pair Name : NZD/CHF 🔰 Time Frame : 4H/ DAILY 🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale 🔰 Direction : LONG/BUY NZD/CHF Forecast: Bullish Momentum Expected as Price Reaches Key Support Zone Hey traders! 📈🚀 NZD/CHF has reached a critical juncture on the charts, arriving at a significant Monthly demand zone around the 0.53 area. This zone not only marks the historical low for the pair but also aligns with the bottom of a well-defined downtrend channel. 📊 Given this confluence of support levels, we are keeping a close eye on the price action, as a potential bullish reversal is in the works. 🧐💹 Our analysis suggests that the price could experience a noteworthy upward movement from this strong support area, with an initial target at the 0.55 area. This level coincides with a key daily supply zone and represents an excellent opportunity for the market to collect liquidity and balance out the demand-supply dynamics. 🎯📉 Traders should remain vigilant and look for bullish confirmation signals in the form of candlestick patterns or trendline breakouts before entering any positions. Remember, successful trading requires proper risk management and adherence to your trading strategy. 🛡️📈 Stay tuned for updates throughout the week as we monitor the price action closely. Let's capitalize on potential market opportunities and make some profitable trades together! Happy trading! 🤝😄
Long
by Moon_SmartMoney
GOLD/ XAUUSD SELL🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD 🔰 Time Frame : 4H 🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale 🔰 Direction : SELL On the last trading session, gold experienced a significant break of a major uptrend line. As per our analysis, we anticipate that gold will undergo a retest of the aforementioned trend line within the buying liquidity range of $1972-$1973 area. Subsequently, we expect a downward movement towards the last selling liquidity zone around $1946 area, aiming to fill the existing imbalance. Keeping an eye on these price levels presents a potentially lucrative trading opportunity for the start of the week. Don't overlook this straightforward Monday trade as it unfolds before us. Stay vigilant and seize the chance to capitalize on these market dynamics. Happy trading!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Moon_SmartMoney
GOLD/ XAUUSD UP DOWN UPPPP DOWNNNNN🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD 🔰 Time Frame : 4HOUR 🔰 Scale Type : LONG SCALE 🔰 Direction: BUY SELL BUYYYY SELLLLL 📈 Technical Analysis: Gold Eyeing Critical Levels and Potential Downside Targets 📉 🔍 Chart: 4H timeframe 💎 Gold has reached a key Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the $1,912-$1,900 range! 📊 The past two weeks witnessed a bullish surge, propelling gold to retest the 23.6% Fibonacci level and fill the market imbalance created by months of selling. 🚀 🦀 Additionally, the completion of the CD leg of a smaller bearish crab pattern adds more weight to the current scenario. Now, we find ourselves at a pivotal moment, as the bullish price action reached the 50% Fibonacci level, leaving behind a massive imbalance area below! 😲 💪 Gold has just breached the daily demand zone, smashing through the 4H demand zone within it! 🚀 Our analysis suggests that gold might be collecting the last bit of liquidity above, specifically around the key high of $1,969 on both the daily and 4H charts. 🌊 ⚡️ Brace yourself for a potential drop towards the imbalance zone below, followed by a retest of the 4H demand zone. From there, the stage could be set for another retest of the 23.6% Fibonacci zone above! 📈 🔍 Looking ahead, keep an eye on the Fib level 0.786 at the $1,866 area! This zone serves as a juicy target for gold, aligning with the first target of the larger bearish crab pattern, around the $1,860 area. 💰 💥 Fundamental Analysis: Bearish Factors Impacting Gold 💥 📉 Gold prices have been on a relentless decline since July 6, marked by Engulfing Bearish Deliberation candlestick patterns. The invalidated Bull Flag formation on the 4H chart and approaching pressure points at $1,962.80 - $1,966.80 indicate a bearish sentiment. 📉 💰 To anticipate a significant correction, we must closely monitor the US Dollar Index (DX) and its momentum! A positive breakthrough of the medium-term resistance zone, previously support, on the weekly chart could trigger a substantial decline in gold prices that would be difficult to stop. 📉 💡 Conclusion: Get Ready for Exciting Moves in Gold! 💡 ⚠️ Gold is at a critical juncture, presenting both technical and fundamental bearish signals. Stay alert as gold targets the imbalance zone below and potential downside targets at the 0.786 Fibonacci level! 🚀 🔒 Stay tuned and be prepared to take advantage of the next big moves in the gold market! Happy trading! 📈💰
TVC:GOLDShort
by Moon_SmartMoney
What is Polygon 2.0 ?Polygon, the most prominent Ethereum Layer 2 solution and one of the top cryptocurrency projects by market value, is launching its first zkEVM chain, independent of the main Polygon proof of stake chain. Furthermore, it plans to fundamentally change the architecture of the Polygon Network with the launch of Polygon 2.0. What Is Polygon 2.0? Polygon 2.0 is a planned Polygon Network upgrade to establish it as the "Value Layer of the Internet." It will be an elemental protocol that enables users to create, exchange, and program value in the same manner they do with information on the internet but in a decentralized system. By providing features such as digital ownership, decentralized finance, and new coordination mechanisms, Polygon 2.0 will enable anyone to access the global economy. It reimagines the architecture of the Polygon network, its governance, and tokenomics and tries to address the challenges of existing blockchains, more precisely, network throughput and scalability limitations. How Does Polygon 2.0 Work? Polygon 2.0 will take a four-layered structure designed to improve the security and scalability of the network while making transactions atomic and instantaneous. static1.makeuseofimages.com The layers include; Staking Layer : This is the existing layer composed of a "validator manager" contract on the Ethereum blockchain and a "chain manager" for every Polygon chain created. It maintains the validators' registry, processes their requests, and processes slashing events. Interoperability Layer : Built upon the staking layer, the interop layer connects every Polygon chain using bridges. It will also have an aggregator that merges zero-knowledge proofs into one proof sent to the Ethereum blockchain. Execution Layer : This layer will enable the Polygon chains to process blocks similarly to Ethereum blocks. It contains multiple components, including P2P, consensus, mempool databases, and witness generators. Proving Layer : This layer generates proofs for all internal and cross-chain transactions for each polygon chain: It's composed of the "common prover" for proof aggregation and verification, the "state machine" that simulates the execution environment, and a "constructor" for developers. Polygon Labs believes the resulting network of zk-powered Layer 2 chains consolidated through a cross-chain coordination protocol will achieve unified liquidity and unlimited scalability. Consequently, users will engage with the entire network with singularity. What Polygon 2.0 Means for Crypto Users? Polygon 2.0 is in the rollout stage. Collaborations between Polygon Labs, other stakeholders, and the broader Polygon and Ethereum community will determine whether to implement it or not through a formal governance process. But if the current development is to go by, the upgrade is likely to go through. Two major dates are pending for Polygon 2.0: The week of 10th July 2023, when they'll announce a token release, and the following week of 17th July, when governance will follow due process. Polygon 2.0 will introduce two great features to the network: 1-Polygon 2.0 will rely on zk-proofs to store validated transactions on Layer 1 and actual transaction data on Layer 2. This innovation will reduce the cost of transactions and improve users' privacy. 2-The network will support countless chains and allow unlimited cross-chain interactions instantly without compromising security. Hence, users will interact with the entire network without feeling they're leaving a single chain. With such developments paving the way for a better Polygon Network, it will be interesting to watch if more investors will bet on its future. Polygon 2.0 Will Be a Web3 Mainstay The future looks promising for the Polygon Network as it introduces Polygon 2.0, which will establish an essential protocol in the Web3 environment. Over the next few weeks, Polygon Labs will share detailed data on the architecture and workings of the new network and how they intend to transform the project. If interested in reviewing the proposal, you're encouraged to participate in the community's conversations that will shape the network's future. Hope you enjoy this article. Follow for more important contents an analysis. Refrences : www.makeuseof.com polygon.technology
MEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
6
Global liquidity TRUMPS price actionA week ago I had a little exchange with someone on Reddit who was claiming that Bitcoin would be shooting up. The analysis was purely technical, using pitchforks and trends, and I was surprised by their level of conviction in the prediction. Here's a snippet of my response: I find it interesting when I see trade ideas based on price movement. Market structures can tell you where certain levels are, but it doesn't tell you much about the propensity of a move until it's well underway, no? This is the point I'm repeating to others while I drill it into my own head. In the rock, paper, scissors game of trading, liquidity beats technical analysis. TA can give you the shape of the river, but it does not tell you how much water is flowing through it. Last week, I pointed out that even though we had an overall bullish flow signal, that a the countertrend dip signal should be heeded. Countertrend dips and bounces turn into liquidity trend changes if they persist. When those show up, it's a time to start taking profits. If it is indeed a short-term move, then TA and subsequently Flow will point this out, at which point leaning into the overall trend makes sense. While the last move was waiting for the countertrend dip to play out (or short it down to the seasonal current ), now the trade is waiting to see what is happening with liquidity. A green bounce suggests a run up to $35K, while a red ebb might call for a fall to $22.5K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sacredprofit
Stocks, Rates and Inflation: Assessing Risks and OpportunitiesOver the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors explain the stock rebound since mid-2022: - Bearish positioning left room for a short squeeze as negative expectations didn’t play out at all. Attention has returned to quality large-cap technology firms leading in AI development like Google and Microsoft, as their innovations promise productivity gains that support growth. - Ongoing passive investing inflows, corporate buybacks, past fiscal stimulus, and excess savings, the Fed and Treasury generating shadow liquidity, China and Japan keeping rates low and stimulating, the massive deficits of the US government (investors know the US is essentially ‘broke’). - Inflation coming down is also boosting stocks, as stocks are mainly valued based on inflation, not interest rates. - The Fed might have finished its hiking cycle or might have one last hike left. Current rate expectations are indicating that rate cuts will come by early 2024. While earnings seem to be plateauing from peak levels, profitability remains healthy overall. GDP growth remains positive and revised higher, the US economy keeps adding jobs and the unemployment rate remains at record lows. Global challenges persist, as supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures from the Ukraine war might come back at any time, despite having significantly subsided. Demographic trends of aging populations in developed countries also drag on labor force expansion and economic growth. High debt loads worldwide likewise limit stimulus options without leading to inflation or instability. While inflation has moderated, it remains elevated and sensitive to many factors, from geopolitical instability to climate change. More concerning, inflation has eased without a clear link to the Fed’s policy tightening. It’s improbable that the Fed hikes were the ones that pushed inflation from 9.1% down to 3%, as rate hikes act with long and variable lags. This is raising doubts about the Fed, it's forecasting, and its monetary policy’s effectiveness in controlling inflation over the long term, especially as their current super-tight interest rate policy could lead to catastrophic deflation and recession. Given rising recession risks, the Fed will likely be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates by the end of 2024. This policy whiplash carries risks of its own, as we currently seem to be heading toward a deflationary shock, which might be followed by another inflationary wave. With massive deficits, the Fed also faces constraints from high-interest costs on debt even as its policies try to restrain growth and inflation. The economy isn't a simple dial the Fed can turn on and off. What’s even more concerning, is that the Fed is essentially trying to suppress wage gains and cause unemployment to curb inflation, which is something that could induce an inequality-worsening spiral. In our opinion, a more balanced approach recognizes that moderate wage growth won’t spur runaway inflation, especially as technology evolves work. The policy should prepare workers for automation and AI through training programs, not just reactively responding to lagging data as it is currently doing. The Fed’s constraints highlight the need for creative solutions to complement monetary policy. The economy is a multifaceted system requiring diverse policy responses. With vision and flexibility, emerging technologies like AI have immense potential to broadly uplift living standards. But this requires inclusive policies and acknowledging the economy's dynamism. The future likely holds turbulence, but with strategic foresight productivity gains can be harnessed for the benefit of all. Despite concerns over rising rates, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for stocks. Many investors have grown excessively bearish and underestimate the market's upside potential. Sentiment and positioning remain bearish and cautious, with most investors underestimating all the positive headwinds for stocks, especially productivity gains from AI, falling inflation, falling rates, and currency debasement. Crucially, the rally since mid-2022 has not been fueled by leverage, unlike past bubbles. Margin debt levels decreased last year, reducing systemic risk. The market has a strong foundation to build on gains, especially as most unprofitable tech has been clobbered and hasn’t recovered, unlike US tech behemoths. Big tech and AI stocks are leading the way higher, forming a new monopoly built on network effects and immense scale. Their nearly unassailable competitive advantages will drive growth for years to come. Although in the short-term sentiment has turned bullish, hence a 10% correction is possible, we don’t think that a new bear market is in the cards until stocks make new all-time highs. In conclusion, while risks remain, the US economy has proven resilient amid rate hikes and inflation. Productivity gains from AI innovations, coupled with prudent and flexible policymaking, can support continued growth and market gains if properly harnessed. Investors should look through short-term volatility and maintain a constructive long-term outlook.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
Macro Monday 4 - Global Net Liquidity and SPX500Global Net Liquidity and SPX 500 Comparison The Global Net Liquidity (“GNL”) indicator provides an overview of how five major central banks liquidity provisions are collectively performing. This allows us to get a sense of whether global money supply is increasing (expansionary) or decreasing (contractionary). The GNL can provide a general indication of how much liquid funds are available in Global Bank Reserves. When there is increasing liquidity, lending in all forms to the consumer is less burdensome/restrictive for the Banks and thus consumers typically have access to more finance. If GNL is increasing this can indicate that more money is available to be lent by the Banks and spent by the consumer and businesses, and when GNL is contracting it can indicate less money is circulating and less funds are available for consumers and businesses which can negatively affect overall economic performance. GNL is available by searching for “Global Net Liquidity” in the indicator section on TradingView. Full credit for the GNL indicator goes to Dharmatech who created/copyrighted this specific indicator on TradingView. There are many Global Liquidity Indicators available on TradingView, some have more banks and metrics included, others less, this is just the one of the main indicators focusing on the big five central banks. I fully intend on making my own Global Net Liquidity Indicator which factors in the other forms of liquidity and other Banks for a more accurate indication. Whilst the impact of smaller global liquidity providers/central banks are less impactful, including them might just offer us an edge week to week. What is included in this GNL: We add the following: - Fed Balance sheet (WALCL) - Japanese Balance sheet (FRED:JPNASSETS) Converted to USD - Bank of China Balance Sheet (CNCBBS) Converted to USD - UK Balance Sheet (GBCBBS) Converted to USD - EU Balance Sheet (ECBASSET) Converted to USD And we deduct: - Reverse Repo Market (RRPONTSYD) - Treasury General Account (WTREGEN) The Chart Please acknowledge that this chart idea has built into it a speculative projection that factors in a number of generalized technical and fundamental considerations/reference points. Lets DIG IN! 1. From a TA perspective we are relying heavily on one data period from 2018 – 2020 on the GNL /S&P500 which is not ideal however a similar pattern from this period may be playing out in an amplified way at present for both. 2. From a general fundamental standpoint we draw a correlation to the Great Inflation period (1965 – 1982) but we hone in on the early years from 1966 – 1973 as these early years are similar to the high inflationary period we find ourselves stepping into at present. 3. In both 1 and 2 above the S&P500 went through significant price volatility which in both instances took the form of a megaphone pattern. Megaphone patterns have been showing up a lot in the market recently, Tesla being a case in point. Megaphone patterns are more common in volatile markets and can offer us traders or investors a structural framework to work within. Considering 1, 2 and 3 above we speculate that we may see a similar large megaphone pattern play out for the S&P500. This is illustrated in a previously shared chart called “A Crazy S&P Idea”. If you check this idea and hit play, you'll see we are currently tracking the 1966 - 1973 Great Inflation Fractal very closely. In summary: o In the past, long term GNL Contraction resulted in significant S&P500 Volatility. o In 2018 a sudden 8 month sharp 10% GNL decline as the S&P500 was continuing to new highs was an advance warning of a subsequent 14% decline in the S&P500. This is expressed on the chart as a Negative divergence. o A similar Negative Divergence is currently playing out. As noted the last Negative Divergence in 2018 took 8 months to complete. This would be Aug/Sept 2023 as a possible mid-term top under the current scenario after which we could expect a >10% pullback. It is important to recognise that the timeframes I am projecting and the price action are patterns that may play out as we find ourselves in similar but not identical circumstances. It is important that we recognise that this pattern may not play out at all. A few things are certain though, Global Net Liquidity is contracting, volatility is expected as a result and the rest is looking into the past for similar patterns to help anticipate potential structures as they evolve. One such pattern which seems plausible is the megaphone, however the S&P500 could be forming a parallel channel here or a different pattern altogether. Time will tell. If all I have done in the above chart is created awareness of GNL and of the current short term negative divergence, I think that is enough. The rest is just possible outcomes with absolutely no guarantees. I also hope that by reviewing the Great Inflationary Periods price action fractal that it can help frame in our minds just how much price volatility could be ahead of us. On a recent chart I shared which focused on the Yield Curve Inversion the maximum timeframe for a recession to commence once the yield curve first turns back up towards the 0% level is 22 months. The first definitive turn up was in March 2023 suggesting that the maximum window before a recession could potentially start is 22 months from March 2023 which is January 2025. Never has a recession taken longer than that 22 months to occur after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards the 0% level. For this reason I have included January 2025 as the potential megaphone top. This also coincides with the megaphone fractal pattern from the Great Inflation Period. I am not saying that this is exactly how it will play out but there is some confluence in the timeframes. I hope you find these charts and their correlations helpful. It will be fascinating to see how these eventually play out. PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts
EURAUD sell to buy projectionPrice grabbed sell side liquidity and then broke structure on the 4h. Price broke minor sell structure, higher low, and is currently retesting, I’m trying to catch a 78% retracement to enter the sell. I believe the sell is to complete the buy retracement that broke structure to the buy side, also expecting price to sell down to the 78% as there is an OB there. As price gets to that OB, I want to see a lower tf change of character. Please let me know what you think and what you see!
by AlishaRenay
3
USDJPY LONG/BUY🔰 Pair Name : USD/JPY 🔰 Time Frame : DAILY 🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale 🔰 Direction : LONG/ BUY USD/JPY is currently showing slight losses, hovering around 138.60, as traders search for fresh signals at the beginning of the European session on Monday. The Yen pair is retracing its corrective bounce from the previous day, where it rebounded from its mid-May lows. Notably, the failure to sustain the corrective bounce beyond the immediate resistance at 139.35, formed by a previous support line dating back to late March, indicates the presence of USD/JPY sellers. 🔍 Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support: 137.80 (early May peak), 137.40 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 135.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Resistance: 139.35 (immediate resistance), 140.00 (psychological level), 141.50 (confluence of 200-SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) However, there are factors that could challenge further downside momentum. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 137.40, coupled with bullish MACD signals and the nearly oversold RSI (14) line, might lead to a pause in the selling pressure. Looking back at the past week, USD/JPY experienced significant market imbalance, raising the anticipation of a correction in dollar strength. This correction is expected to facilitate the market's rebalancing process by filling the existing imbalance and collecting selling liquidity above. As professional traders, we are closely monitoring these developments for potential trading opportunities. Being vigilant and ready to act in response to price action signals is crucial during this period of potential correction and rebalancing.
Long
by Moon_SmartMoney