Liquidity
ES - Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis
June 5 - June 9, 2023
In the current market, we find ourselves inside the Daily Liquidity Area. 50% of this area aligns with the end of the Daily Volume Imbalance at 4314.
For this week, I anticipate a test of the Consequent Encroachment of Liquidity Area and a potential fill of the Daily Volume Imbalance. I believe that 4317.75 could act as a significant barrier preventing further upward movement in price. Therefore, my key level to watch is 4317.75, as I am likely to consider closing my long positions at this point.
A break above 4317.75 will attract more bulls into the market, and I can expect a bounce towards the 4339 level, which would fill the Daily Breakaway Gap.
However, if the market fails to hold the Daily Liquidity Area and breaks below 4380, it would present a short trade opportunity with a target of 4266-4264. I am particularly interested in observing a test of the 5-minute Order Block, as it has shown strong support thus far.
In order to see further bearish momentum, it would be necessary for another Liquidity Area in the range of 4254-4247 to be breached. In such a scenario, I would initiate a short scalp trade with a quick target at the 4240.50 level, which represents the Consequent Encroachment of the 5-minute wick.
Looking ahead, my next key level to monitor is 4223.75. However, I will provide more details about this level during the week, as currently, there don't appear to be sufficient reasons to anticipate a move towards this level due to multiple barriers situated above it.
EURUSD 4HTherefore, the collection of price liquidity is moving towards the collection of orders
In the lower time frame, after hitting the 4H supply area, you can enter a sell transaction with further confirmation
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👤 ONDANAFX : @ONDANAFX
📅 06.01.2023
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LESSON 1: TRADE THE LIQUIDITY OR BE THE LIQUIDITYWhat is Liquidity in Forex Trading?
Liquidity is the presence of orders at specific prices in the market, ensuring that transactions can take place without disruptions. When traders talk about liquidity, they are usually referring to the resting orders in the market. These orders can be absorbed or targeted by banks and financial institutions (BFIs) to influence the patterns of price movement. Liquidity can be found throughout the market, although certain areas may have higher levels than others. The good news is that it is indeed possible to learn how to identify and recognize liquidity patterns.
Liquidity comprises a variety of orders that gather in the market, including limit orders, stop loss orders, and stop limit orders. These orders come into play when prices reach specific levels of supply or demand in the market. Understanding liquidity is essential in comprehending how prices move.
Why do you need to understand Liquidity?
Liquidity is crucial for predicting price movements. Analyzing liquidity, along with market structure, supply and demand, and order flow, provides insights into potential price directions. It's important to consider liquidity alongside trend analysis and supply and demand to understand market conditions effectively. Highly liquid markets can be manipulated by large banks or institutions, leading to liquidity shortages, price slippage, and poor trade execution. Recognizing liquidity pools during slow sideways price movements is key.
What are the main types of Liquidity in Forex trading?
1. Buy-side liquidity (see chart for example)
Buy-side liquidity refers to the accumulation of orders above a range or high, including buy-stop limits and stop losses placed by sellers and breakout traders. Banks and financial institutions (BFIs) may target these orders to fuel temporary or sustained bullish price movements.
2. Sell-side liquidity (see chart for example)
Sell-side liquidity refers to the collection of orders situated below a range or low, including sell-stop limits and stop losses placed by buyers and breakout traders. Banks and financial institutions (BFIs) can target these orders to generate temporary or sustained bearish price movements. Similar to buy-side liquidity, sell-side liquidity serves a crucial role in the market dynamics.
Do you have any questions? feel free to ask.
Cheers,
David
Is ROKU ready to reverse and recover?ROKU here is on a one hour chart. IT has trended down from from its supply/ resistance area
of 65-68 and has dipped into its demand/ support zone of 52-53 per the Luxalgo indicator.
Price is presently far below the high volume area of the volume profile which shows the
the highest volume at 64. At this point, short sellers are buying to cover and take profit.
Price is now at the lowermost VWAP bands in the deep undervalued area. Bargain hunters
such as myself now have an interest. Fundamentally, the last earnings report was
reasonably favorable given the context of the general market and the economy.
I see ROKU as a long-trade candidate at this point. It should follow AAPL, TSLA, META GOOG
and other mega-caps and begin an uptrend. ROKU has high volume high liquidity and
relatively narrow spreads. I will take a call option trade striking $50 with a
DTE of 30-45 days. IF it performs well, at 21-30 days I will roll it into another.
The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Breaking DownMoney that is being parked at the Feds Reverse Repo Facility due to attractively high interest rates the fed has set for money parked at the facility has been on a steady decline since late 2022 and we have now confirmed a lower high and are looking to break down below a Bearish Dragon trend line that could be the initial trigger that gets it started to going down all the way to an 88.6% retrace or lower even. One can only speculate that the money exiting this facility will lead to more trading of short term debt on the open market, which could eventually lead to yields coming down overall and for all of this excess liquidity to chase Equities instead as the value of the US Dollar declines due to the shock of all this newly added supply of liquid cash to the open market thereby causing a loosening of market conditions.
Top Down Analysis of AUDUSDHere is my top down analysis of AU. Date: 23-05-2023. I can see us going either direction from here we are kind of in no mans land due to price being at the current weekly low. But if we roll over and break last weeks weekly low then I could see a retracement to induce buyers then a continuation to the downside.
However, it is possible that we bounce from the current level and head back up towards last weeks high. In this case I'd wait for a break of the PDL which was broken today and if we close above this area I'd look for a setup to try get long and target higher up Liquidity.
Time and price will tell
EUR/USD Long London Open - May 23rd '23Very important liquidity grab on London open closing the imbalance below. We have two important rejection wicks on H1 after the liquidatinon. We are targeting the imbalance close above + important liquidity highs. Looking to move SL to BE once price breaks the m15 structure with a candle close above. Good luck traders!
ES short-term analysisWe have 1h Breaker block 4213.75-4220.50. We might see possible bounce to this BB and a drop to the 15m Breakaway Gap - 4177.
But it can drop from 4204 - there is 15m FVG there + 3m BB.
Break above 4227 will bring us to the 4244. This is Buyside Liquidity level.
I want to see fill of the breakaway gap first. 4177 and 4170 my key levels. They act as a magnet for the price. Once it fails to hold 4161 - SSL, we are going to have short trade opportunity with target at 4145. There is 15m Liquidity Void
Which Scenario ?Just by looking at it it makes sense for price to hunt all those untouched liquidity , right ?
but what's gonna happen next ?
as i indicated here there are 4 scenarios for me , but i think 4 is the most possible one , why u ask ?
well , if u follow my ideas i am bearish on BTC and i have a whole bunch of reasons and all i see here and in the recent move was just a liquidity hunt .
i predict prices bellow 25K for BTC cause i yet recognize exhaustion in price move , and it is not a good sign if u want to see a bull run ...
so yeah , here it is , make ur own judgment .
EUR/USD Forecast - May 18th '23My analysis on EUR/USD for the upcoming trading day. Price is currently stuck between two important zones and has now switched the structure to a bullish pattern. We reacted off a very important H4 imbalance giving price the strength to potentially fill the H4/Daily Imbalance above. Potential liquidity hunt on London open if we keep on building liquidity during Asian. Expecting liquidity grab to continue bullish at least until the Imbalance above. Good luck traders.
SPY: $405 Price TargetMan oh man. Clear as day to me. Market couldn't get back to the high after starting downtrend and now we've reclaimed downtrend, should break right through $409 and should fill the gap to $405. Could get as low with $403 this week since we have momentum downside. I've picked up 409 puts for this Friday.