How to Chart Fed LiquidityI'm going to be clearing out some of my half baked ideas.
I don't have a lot of time to write full ideas about them so enjoy the charts and feel free to ask any questions about them if you have any.
I'm going to integrate my TV charts into the website with a daily, weekly, monthly analysis.
website is in my TV profile or find me on twitter.
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The Fed Liquidity used in Master of Markets Idea
What is Fed liquidity?
To determine Fed Liquidity you can simple use this ticker
FRED:RESPPANWW-FRED:RRPONTSYD-FRED:WDTGAL
The Total Assets of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet at 8.382 Trillion.
Subtract The Treasury General Account at 451 Billion
Then Subtract the 2.142T Overnight Reverse Repo
You get 5.789 Trillion in Net Liquidity which hasn't come down a heck of a lot since the last time I tallied up 5.9T
Liquidity
Gold - Manipulation Point TradingBias: Open
Market Cycle: n/a
Sideways PA is but slowly moving down through the MP's,,
If we are treading inside the range we need the SR and CC as usual..
To go short on a breakout,, we need a high volume breakout with some distance on it (the type you wouldn't want to trade back into the range). Then a low volume retest or SR & CC on the lower MP..
It looks like golds heading to 1802.27 minimum on the weekly .. lets see.. ??
GbpJpy - Manipulation Point TradingBias: Long
Market Cycle: 2
Still long on GJ,, Looking at the 162.08 level it's a KL on the Daily, weekly, monthly TF's..
We're trading inside the 1h fvg, so theres potential that it moves bullish at anytime, I will only be looking for LQG on the MP's for the safer entry position's..
The Search For Liquidity in ERA of TighteningYoung corporate executives in Mumbai, who may never have read Marx, were recently circulating by e-mail portions from Karl Marx's 150-year-old writings which lucidly talk about a stage in capitalism where banks would throw ever larger doses of cheap debt for consumption until there is a crises of repayment and the state would step in to take over the banks. Indeed, Marx had even said the original proponents of free trade will be forced to turn protectionist at some stage of globalisation!
So it was only appropriate that the G-20 leaders should have met so close to Marx's grave. In fact, there are many other warning signals the G-20 leaders can take from the writings of Marx, undoubtedly one of the greatest thinkers of the 19th century.
Seen in Marxian terms, the G-20 leaders represent the global bourgeoisie which wants to find new ways of revolutionising the instruments of production to take global capitalism to a higher level from what seems like a deep stagnation in large parts of the world today. In this context, Marx had specifically spoken about periods of commercial crises in advanced capitalist societies which are visited by an epidemic of overproduction
The epidemic of overproduction creates total disorder in bourgeois society, threatening existing property and productive forces at large.
BANKNIFTY 15min INTRADAY PLAN (20 FEB)Hello TradingView community and my followers, please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments, thank you very much and here we go.
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BANKNIFTY
Daily : On daily it has swept liquidity from below of range.
15 min : Plan of 15 min I've explained on chart. It can break PSY level 41000 below and then can go up by trapping lot of seller and it can go for upside SL hunting.
*Wait & look for an opportunity and we could see an upside movement.
THANK YOU !!!
GBPJPY 4 Hr Analysis: Mid-Week UpdateHey guys :)
So, after seeing some bullish movement this week, we are now waiting for price to retrace a bit deeper to that fib below and then show us what it wants to do from there.
As per my analysis, I would like to see price retrace anywhere between 159.500 and 158.500 within the fib drawn above. It may not even retrace much further at all and just continue bullish from there. But I would like to see it pull back further into the fib if I am going to consider taking a trade.
There are obviously many pathway options that price may take but these are just the main 2 that I would personally like to see at the moment. If price does not give me either of these I will Of course readjust and plan accordingly. :)
Option 1:
If price pushes higher into the fib and removes liquidity from the previous highs, then it is likely that price is just enticing and accumulating buyers before it drops and continues bearish. I would like to price push higher to about 162.500 or 163.500 before reversing as that will also satisfy and fill the imbalance to our left - But Of course it doesn't have to.
Buyers will see it break the previous highs and think that price has broken Market Structure and is continuing bullish causing them to place buys left, right and center.
Little do they know; price is only retracing further into the Higher Timeframe Bearish Fib, removing liquidity, and in fact, NOT breaking Market Structure. Basically, just performing the good old 'strike and reverse'.
Option 2:
Price will just retrace around the same area (162.500 or 163.500) instead of reversing and continue bullish for the time being.
Again, these are not verbatim. As price changes and moves as it wants, I will react accordingly and make the corrections needed for my analysis and projections. :)
Remember, it is not about being right or wrong. I know I always say this - but there is absolutely nothing wrong with being inaccurate in your analysis.
The problem lies with those who can't ACCEPT being wrong and they try to hold on to their analysis regardless knowing that price is going against them.
People think it's embarrassing to be 'wrong'. What's embarrassing is watching your stop loss being hit all in the name of your family, friends and Neighbours thinking you are right.
Ego will get you absolutely nowhere in these markets and you WILL be humbled and fast!
I can guarantee that there is nobody out there who is 100% right 100% of the time - And if there is, it's from YEARS of wins, losses, trials and error.
Adaptation is the key to survival if you want success in this job.
GbpCad - Manipulation Point TradingBias: Short
Market Cycle: Possibly the beginning of phase 1
I'm looking at 1.6170 for a potential break and retest..
You'll notice what looks like a 1h OB highlighted with a circle on the left, however when you move up to the 4h TF this OB disappears..
Therefore, if we get a break below 1.6170 followed by a SR & CC to the downside I will look for shorts..
Ideally the 1h OB reacts and buyers come into the market in order to give us our pullback before going short..
Let's see how it pans out..???
15-2-2023 ARES OF LIQUIDITYAt the end of 14-2-2023(VALENTINE DAY) and the beginning of the 15-2-2023 ,i marked the significant areas of LQ
weekly-daily-h4 (high and low )
Between these areas ,we will face images form the battles between buyers and sellers and if there is a violation of areas of LQ in association with high or low volatile market.
NOTE:-DONOT FORGET ROUND NUMBERS SPECIALLY IF ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE AREAS OF LQ
GbpJpy - Manipulation Point Trading Bias: Long
Market Cycle: 2
Yesterdays analysis has proven to be correct even if we didn't get a pullback and entry...
I'm looking for a pullback and entry from either 159.90 or 159.53 both KL's in terms of round number trading and valid manipulation points in our trading system.
EurCad - Manipulation Point TradingBias: Short
Market Cycle: 2
PA is currently in phase 2 of market cycle after a 1st push down on friday. Today is the last day to look for phase 2 before we move back to an open bias..
Notice how price is also trading down in a bearish channel since 2nd Feb, we also have our MP lined up with the top of the channel so i would expect some kind of reaction from here..
Follow the rules to the system, they keep us safe and provide quality entry's...
If it doesn't fit our strategy, it's not our money....
AudCad - Manipulation Point Trading Bias: Short
Market Cycle: 2
Yesterdays short bias still holds, but with regards to yesterdays PA moving over 90% ADR then there is potential that we have a reversal on our hands...
Pay attention to the PA at the bottom of the chart, there is a clear DB followed by a 90% ADR move up..
Follow the GFX MP rules in this case..
• Short from 0.9302 should we get a signal
• Long should we break above and 2 x 15m candle open&close above look for a long following a SR & CC
Manipulation strategyWe all know that markets are highly manipulated and the traders have to look for a signs of manipulation.
There are a lot of types of manipulation - imbalance, candle without wick, liquidity grab and so on. On the chart I marked few areas, where price was manipulated and reversed.
The strategy shows you how to recognise the manipulation patterns. It is based on smart money concept, but it is more focused on the liquidity grab and the low liquidity moves.
So for example:
On this chart I marked areas, where price created low liquidity moves and the results are strong movements on the manipulated direction.
Why these examples are low liquidity moves?
Because price cleared a lot of stop losses and inject fresh money in the market. The banks do not invest into the markets, they generate money in order to profit.
In the first rectangle (lower one) - price created triple bottom - this is a major reversal retail pattern and created major liquidity pool, but look closer. Creating the pattern, price also took out lot of liquidity and moved away.
In the second rectangle (the wedge) - price also created low liquidity move, because every time it gave strong signs of reversal tricking the traders to sell or buy and then took them out.
Rule : In order price to move in one direction the institutions must buy or sell. To accumulate orders they should inject money in the market. The injections are liquidity grab in many ways and types.
The markets can not move always with low liquidity moves and always stay in efficiency. The liquidity must to be created first, so that traders can come into the market and later to be taken out.
As every strategy the "Manipulation strategy" sometimes give us false signals, but it is most accurate strategy.
For example in consolidation we may see many false signals, but this is not because the strategy failed, it is because price was manipulated constantly.
This is not smart money concept. The strategy is not focused on order blocks and breaker blocks, it is focused on low liquidity moves.
The manipulation areas are also the true support and resistance, because when the banks buy or sell from the specific level, they will protect this level, if it is not targeted.
Markets moves up and down, taking the buy side and sell side liquidity, this is the way that swings are formed. They are not forming based on retail support and resistance or Fibonacci numbers.
How to use:
1) Calculate the liquidity - look for retail pattern - double top/bottom, previous high or low, support or resistance or every other obvious buy/sell zone.
2) Wait price to clear the level - liquidity grab.
3) Wait until price form low liquidity move(pattern).
4) Buy/Sell to the opposite liquidity pool.
ETHUSDT - Liquidity zone reached, ready for higher?ETH has faced significant resistance at the key level of $1700, marked by the June 2021 low. Despite repeated attempts we failed to break through this level, leading to a swing failure at the November 2022 high.
This failure has resulted in a retracement to the liquidity zone at $1500 (Key Level), which is also the median line of the channel. Additionally, there is the 200-day MA acting as support at $1440. This retracement has had a significant impact on traders who had entered long positions from January 14th, as many of them may have been forced to exit or are now underwater.
To regain momentum and target for higher prices, it is essential to reclaim the previous low and establish it as our new level of support. Volume will play a crucial role in determining the next move.
As long as ETH remains above $1500 a bullish bias should be maintained. The 200-day MA at $1440 acts as an additional layer of support.
BTC dump is coming? Hi dear community, I hope you are fine.
I will be short. I will update my ideas about current situation on BTC chart.
I'm looking at 2W BTC log chart by Heikin Ashi candles. I'm comparing 2022 bear market with 2015 coz they are very identical by many factors which I told in my previous analyses.
So as you see after making double bottom with strong bullish div BTC pumped from 15.5K to 24.3K as I had mentioned in my previous analyses. There is huge resistance at 24.5-25K zone/200weekly EMA, range high, diagonal and horizontal resistances, monthly diagonal bearish trendline test etc. Approaching to key resistance bullish candles became smaller/check 3D or W chart/, buying volume was diminishing, the momentum was losing creating multi bear divergences on multi timeframes, as a result of the mentioned the price rejected at 24.3K & dropped to 21.6K filling created imbalance, and FVG zones bellow 22.3K. As you see after bottom, BTC created 3-4 big green Heikin Ashi candles marked in pink box and dumped to the main market structure making HL, at the moment you can notice the same green candles in a pink zone with RSI identical move as it did in 2015)). To be honest , we need this healthy correction putting HL in current structure.
There is weekly FVG zone at 17.2-20.4K zone as well. In coming days and weeks, I expect BTC to dump to the mentioned zone and fill at least 50% of FVG which is 18.7K. More likely 18.5-19K zone will hold not only as a FVG zone but also strong horizontal support and we'll see strong reaction and bounce from that region which will lead the price to new highs)).
If you like my ideas don't forget to like and follow me for further updates. I will appreciate any kind of support.
Also check my other analyses.
Critical Bitcoin Levels to trade This week with ATAS Order FlowBINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
Critical Bitcoin Levels to trade This week with ATAS Order Flow.
Bitcoin has been trading in a range and this morning we saw the lows taken out by a swing failure pattern.
I show you my current levels to the upside and downside and the critical levels that HAVE to hold over the coming days.
Safe Trading - Not Financial advice.
Regards,
Shawn - AKA ZarTraderGuy
GBPJPY 4HR Weekly Projection - Which way will we Breakout?!Hey guys,
GJ is still consolidating and is just accumulating liquidity right now. It is creating some sort of 'Flag', but as you can see, its also consistently hitting each fib as its creating the Higher Lows in that 'flag'.
All it is doing now is just enticing everyone to take either buys or sells before it breaks out.
The 2 options plotted are just my 2 main projections for the time being, and if it doesn't react that way I will OfCourse, readjust and reanalyze my views because remember - we are not fortune tellers, we just react TO price action and not predict it :)
Option 1 - Price may come up and remove all bearish liquidity from all the Support and Resistance Traders that have sold from there (nothing wrong with that) and also fill that imbalance in price. Don't forget that the Overall Higher Timeframe Fib is there so it will hit that too. There is so many confluences for price to fulfill if it breaks out bullish, but also don't forget, it doesn't NEED to do that straight away it can breakout bearish and then come back for the fib, imbalance and liquidity later on.
Option 2 - If price breaks out bearish it will remove all the buyers who bought at the fibs and the prior lows.
I personally think that the most efficient and cost-effective route for price to take is to go bullish and THEN drop. But again, I can't make that decision because as we know - the market can and will do what it wants, all we can do is project our analysis and try to put ourselves in the best position possible for the outcome.
And most importantly, don't worry if you are wrong or you are not comfortable enough to take a trade.
If you are not 110% confident in your analysis and trade - DO NOT take it.
Don't worry about FOMO, don't worry about 'What if price goes without me ' or 'What if it hits my TP without me?' Who cares!?
Once you can shake these thoughts and feelings, you will truly see a drastic improvement in your trading consistency.
The MOST important thing is your confidence and protecting your capital. :)