JPY strength - good for a short? CADJPY or GBPJPY interestingGood Monday!
this is a good analysis on how JPY could be a good idea to trade this week after the run up that all currencies did against it.
Fundamentals, Japan has had some good news on their books, we will see how the liquidity responses to this .
Liquiditypool
USDTRY - Preparing for a dip?
The Turkish lira under pressure from inflation data in the country.
June consumer price index rose from 0.89% to 1.94% MoM and from 16.59% to 17.53% YoY. As a result of the partial lifting of quarantine restrictions and an increase in raw material prices, inflation in Turkey has reached two-year highs, which does not give hope for the start of lower interest rates by the country's central bank until the end of this year.
XAUUSD | POSSIBLE PULLBACKGold rose above the $1,800 psychological level on Tuesday to hit a three-week high, as a pullback in the dollar lifted bullion demand, while investors awaited minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting for clarity on monetary policy.
Expecting a possible pullback on gold in the following next sessions. Recommended buying on the pullbacks around 1776-770
USD/CAD – Week 26 – More correction ahead.As we were expecting in our previous analysis, the US Dollar lost some momentum against the Canadian dollar and started to depreciate.
For this week we expect the price to reach the resistance and drop until it reaches the liquidity pool highlighted on the chart.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
⚡️ Understanding Breakout Traps ⚡️If we see a pattern form that retail likes to trade,
It is highly likely that this pattern may get manipulated.
The reason these common patterns get manipulated is
because of liquidity forming.
Banks want to make sure they can create enough liquidity
for themselves to get positioned nicely in the market.
They do this by driving the price up/down into stop loss areas.
To avoid being caught out we need to sit on our hands,
wait for the stop loss hunt to occur before we go-ahead
with our initial position bias.
The Liquidity GrabI'm going to do my best here at explaining the basics around a liquidity grab (some times called a stop hunt), why it happens and how it works (ignore the chart I'm using, I'm not saying this is a manipulated move just showing you an example of how it works)
I often refer to this in my playbook as an STL "Sweep The Legs" coupled with a picture of Johnny Lawrence from the karate kid lol
First you need to understand that Big money plays a different game to retail.
When you want to place a buy order at a specific price point, lets say your buying a thousands dollars worth of BTC @ $30,000, you can put an order in and boom it gets hit your filled and your ready to go to the moon.
Now imagine some bigger traders who play with a lot more money than you, lets say there order is more like a billion dollars.
Well in order for them to fill there position, there needs to be a large amount of selling at that level other wise they may only get a small piece filled...... theeeeeen of course the price moves away and your priced out of the market (imagine putting your $1000 order in, only getting $10 of it filled and then having the price moon....yeah it would suck)
They do not want to chase candles or buy up the order book, thats just not good business, and if you have to do that in order to get your orders filled thats a good indication that there is already liquidity issues within this market and you may have a similar problem trying to cover of your position later on.
So these players some times need to hunt down and find or even artificially create liquidity pools for them to take a big bite at like pigs at the trough.
One of the easiest ways to do that is to look for the most obvious levels of support with in a trend of sideways channel and look at the buying thats happening on that level.
If we dont get an instant recovery or bounce at that level it can normally indicate price being trapped or held down in order to encourage more retail to "buy the dip" or buy on support as these are some of the most basic tools and strategies taught to retail traders.
Now one thing to remember when all of these traders/investors are in there positions from this level, there will be a large number of these traders protecting capital with stop losses, normally under the level they where buying at.
This now created a liquidity pool...... You see every stop loss on a BUY order, becomes a SELL order, and with so many BUY orders created and entered at a specific level that means the stop loss orders are stacking more and more on top.
Think about it like this, if we hit 30k and someone buys $1m worth, that means there is possibly a SELL order (via a stop loss) of roughly 1m under that level.... now we hit that 30k level again, and someone buys some more, maybe another $1m worth... well now there is roughly $2m worth of SELL orders in that stop loss zone. Hit that 30k super sweet safe support level 5 or 6 times and all the sudden you could have 8-10m worth of SELL orders at a single price point below support.
Now if I wanted to enter this market long and I had 10m order to fill, it would make sense for me to run the price down to clip these stop losses creating a large amount of selling straight into my pig of a buy order.
Once my orders filled I can stop holding the price down and let the price begin to organically rise again, this often creates fomo for all the retailers who just got knocked out of there trades from "tight stop losses" to chase the market back in only adding to the momentum and mark up of my position.
The same thing can happen in vice versa when they are covering or exiting a position as well, and its often followed by a square up to reduce or remove the risk taken on to manipulate the price during there accumulation or distribution of there order, more specially into a short position as they take on more exposure to the underlying asset to manipulate the price, in a long there exposure is fiat and there isnt any need to cover. (ill explain square up in detail next time)
This is often what is referred to as a liquidity grab and its how big players enter the market, they do not chuck a limit order in on Binance and hope for the best...
I hope that made sense and added some value, but if you have any questions please chuck them below
UNDERSTANDING LIQUIDITYIn this quick and easy lesson, I will break down the concept of liquidity.
If you retain the thought that liquidity stands for an area where stop losses are you will grasp this concept quickly.
We often see spikes into areas of liquidity before true moves continue, this is so that banks can capture as many orders as possible before they depart from the area.
JUNE 20 NASDAQ ANALYSISLooking at the CMP, see seek for the price to go lower and fill the void that was left by the buyers after the previous fast move up, once this is filled, we will be looking for buying opportunities below the area of liquidity. A good rejection and repricing will see us moving higher. Lets see how much liquidity will be poured into the markets as we watch the fundamentals shifters.
XAUUSD | Market outlook
US Fed matched wide market forecasts of keeping the monetary policy intact but the quarterly economic projections were the key. The policymakers not only revised up the near-term GDP and inflation forecasts but also pumped the rate-hike expectations, mostly known as dot-plot. As per the latest update, US GDP may grow 7.0% in 2021 versus 6.5% previous whereas the PCE figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is now seen at 3.4% for 2021 and 2.1% for the next year.
US dollar index (DXY) jumped the most in over a year.
US 10-year Treasury yields rallied the most since early March to 1.58%
Best to sell on rallies around 1846-56
XAUUSD | Market outlook
Possible corrective move before Bearish trend continuation.
DXY is not much stronger. Despite a significant increase in inflation, which exceeded 5%, at yesterday's meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged, and, according to the comments, a revision of the volume of bond buybacks will become possible only next year, when the current parameters of inflation and employment are adjusted.
Main trend is bearish as incomplete bearish pattern. Best to sell on rallies around 1842-1858
Note: Market can continue Bearish move without an upside correction.
XAUUSD | Market outlook
U.S. Treasury yields were steady on Tuesday ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserves two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be watched for any signals on when the U.S. central bank is likely to begin paring its massive bond purchase program.
Benchmark 10-year yields were little changed on the day at 1.499%. They fell to a three-month low of 1.428% on Friday and have dropped from a one-year high of 1.78% in March.
Gold fell to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as investors eagerly awaited the outcome of the Fed meeting to find hints to cut economic measures.
It's good to sell on rallies around 1885-95.
Forecast on EURUSD for May 2021For this month I am bearish on EU.
I am anticipating an upwards move filling in the 4H liquidity voids and maybe take out the PMH and PWH to get enough liquidity to drop significantly all the way to the daily liquidity voids.
Personally going into the month, I'll be looking for longs off the OB's with a Wyckoff distribution off of it.
Then, when price reaches tipping levels, I'd be looking to short it all the way down to 1.1925 and 1.18.
What do you guys think about my forecast? And what are you guys forecasting for this month?
XAU/USDGold that has been creating lower highs and lower lows on the daily, has retraced to a LH and bounced strongly off the last recent institutional candle. Looking for gold to continue its way to the downside, reaching the target areas below. Looking for it to make a new lower low taking out the liquidity below, also filling out some areas of imbalance. Two potential entry areas price may reject from for a SELL trade at 1790.80 and 1793.65 (0.786 and 0.88 on the fib). Low risk, high reward trade setup.
There's also great potential the trade can break past the stoploss area as there are target areas there too that price may want to come to. If that happens, will then look for potential trade setup in that area.
eurgbp outlook for today/ next week on this pair you can see we are sitting on a lvl of structure @ 0.86725 however we are not making any progression away form it, this to me creates a liquidity pool below market because the more time price rejects the more people are inclined to buy this lvl as its deemed "strong" , this end up with lots of stops below a "strong" lvl.
now as we know the market is gravitated towards liquidity so in my opinion there is a high probability the market is going to drop below taking any stops out and making sell side liquidity (when you have a buy order in the market and your stop loss is hit you are selling back into the market at a disadvantageous price and you pay the cost of the difference)
now back to the trade idea haha, I am looking to get a break below structure and a retest to go short alongside liquidity, we also have an untested lvl with fib and ema and atr confluence below market @ 0.86427 I will be looking to buy this lvl after I close my short out
Expecting EURUSD to grab some liquidity before new high.s3.tradingview.com
Based on studies of Wyckoff price action/cycles, Mentfx (YT) order blocks concepts, and ICT (YT) institutional price action concepts.
My speculation for this week is the USD continuing to fall, thus boosting the the EUR. But, smart money needs to fill some recent inefficiencies first. I'll be looking for a fake trend break to accomplish this, wipe out long stops and collect liquidity before next rally.
Channel Formation for GBPCHFIve dissected the trend for the most highly probable entries,no indicators were used throughout this markup,i applied them after examining raw structure...thanks to the laws of supply and demand we can whenever we read in between the lines of PA we can see that there is liquidity below and above this current trading range.Do you Agree or disagree with this post? LIKE AND COMMENT FOR MORE CONTENT LIKE THIS!
Bancorian has woken upAfter 6 week consolidation the bancor protocol has finally broken out again. yesterday they revealed that they can now do limit orders on a DEX and you can provide single side liquidity without impermanent loss...
so basicly bancor tech is miles ahead than their competitors uni and sushi.
While the bancor marketcap is much lower.
my bags are fully packed, send it to 12 dollars swiftly
MISSION ALERT: ROB USDJPY!!!💸💰Hello traders, in this post i am giving a quick break down of the current range we see in this market. I entered this trade 2 hours after the open of the London session now im making a post to monitor my feedback. I have noticed that we have a false breakout scenario with the macd indicator and price action. The double bottom pattern and macd signal cross that just formed reinforces a cause to go bullish, i have a more bullish bias because i observed that there is a high volume of liquid sellers above the breakout at a psychological resistance @109.750 . I have multiple confluences to enter this trade but i cant disclose all of them to the public because i dont want to water down my edge.If you take a close look at the levels then you can notice the similarities in price action on multiple occasions.PLEASE LEAVE FEEDBACK! LIKE AND COMMENT! SHARE POST TO SEE MORE GREAT CONTENT LIKE THIS!