Liquiditypool
Navigating The Market : Trading Plan GBPCHF 3rd September 2019The price didn't fourth-tapped the buy stops yesterday. Equal(ish) intraday highs first formed on the 23rd August, tapped for the second time on the 27h August and tapped for the third time on the 29th. The root of yesterday move was from Friday's high. It went down and almost tested last week's low but it didn't close inside the liquidity pool to warrant me for a bullish trigger.
I am generally bearish on the sterling but as we have seen how the price reacted last week, I welcome any level bounces that I could get into until the trend/price expansion occurs, considering the fact that sell orders and buy orders (liquidity pool!) stacking at the upside and the downside. Last week's average weekly range was missed so I expect it will be tested sometime this week, and I anticipate whichever projection the price would make, that would be also this week's high or low (anchor).
In between the current range, there are reported retail buy stops at 1.2000-1.18000. When I see buy stops BELOW the current market price, I do not see an opportunity to trade according to the level's breakout but against it. I tend to see it as a place for the big banks/institutional to trap breakout retail traders and get liquidity so they can buy/sell at a better price. Whether it would "respect" the levels (a kinder word for "trap zones") or not, it doesn't matter to me because the levels I am interested at are the liquidity pools coincided with popular breakout levels. When price enters this zone, then I will wait for setups accordingly
Actionable :
Look for a bullish signal when price close inside the Sell Stops Liquidity Pool below current market price.
OR
Look for bearish signal when price close insde the Buy Stop Liquidity pool at 1.2100-1.2300
Actionable :
Navigating The Market : Trading Plan #AUDNZDThere was liquidity run as anticipated yesterday. Price stayed around in that pool and barely got out to make a meaningful trigger for me to Long AUDNZD. As Tokyo opens, we saw price breaks through above Friday's low suggesting it could be time for price expansion after accumulation. Having said that though, there will be risk events in 7 minutes as of i'm writing now, Retail Numbers for Australia. Fantastic time for the institutions doing some stop hunts. I will be looking for a quick tap downside, another tap into the liquidity pool. 12.30pm (Singapore time) there will be Australia Cash Rate (another best time for tapping in those sell stops down below!), I am expecting they will hold their rate at 1.00% and whatever it is they plan next month have been fully priced in
The actionable from this :
Long AUDNZD when :
Price close above the filter line
OR
Price makes another move to the downside (close below Monday Low) and wait for another bullish trigger (which would opt me to draw a new Filter line).
I love the latter plan better.
Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen.
The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa)
Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price)
My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
Navigating the EURUSD : Simplified #EURUSDI have adjusted a bit of my view on EURUSD, the estimation of how deep is the liquidity under the last week's low. Yesterday price tapped into it and you could see the aftermath : the doji-like candle just at the time of London close.
Then I looked at the pair's weekly and monthly range, the price hasn't reached it yet (the Monthly Low Projection). Considering the daily ranges between Tuesday and yesterday, in spite of the market making continued lower highs lower lows (you can say this week's move can be a poster boy of "selling high" in a downtrend), the daily ranges however had been very small.
I am strong believer that each day the price failed to hit the average daily range, it will be paid in the other day. In other words, the market "owes" us that range deficit and that deficit will accumulate. We have had three days of average range deficit.
If the institutions decided to "pay" the market what they "owed", you could see a price expansion today even above the daily range and MAYBE, just maybe institutions could tap in deeper to the liquidity pools down below (hitting the weekly and monthly projection, not necessarily exactly to the pip of course)
I am a fan to long EURUSD but I would have more conviction if they traded even lower today, tapping all those stacks of sell orders.
Navigating the Market : Simplified #BRENT #OILMonday high and low (after the NY close) coincided with equal high on Friday and several days (including Friday low) low respectively
The liquidity resides above the Monday high (remember I divide the week into specific chunks to be able to objectively determine and qualify a "valid" liquidity pool) and was tapped in yesterday. Interesting enough Tue-Wed high resulted by that institutional tap of the price creates a liquidity pool.
If you have a good technical system, you would be able to short this (look at the shots fired) and bank some profits by now (and if you don't plan to scalp, manage your trades now and eliminate risk immediately)
/** This is not an entry & exit based trading strategy
Navigating the Market : Simplified #USD #CHFFriday low was broken coincided with an equal low few days before (check your own charts), if i was on my trading desk when that happen (price tapping in the green zone I marked) and my personal trading system triggers a Long signal, i would've been in.. well, it fits my criteria to enter a trade.(again, you would argue hindsight analysis.. but AGAIN, you mark these kind of levels in any pair, you would see it happen very often.. not always.. but very often.. and that is enough for me to be able to simply navigate the market without guessing work (which is bad in trading)
That little retracement during NY session started with bearish engulfing candle. Reversal traders would have latched onto that with a short trade believing its time to enter a trade into the continuation bearish move started on the previous Friday. Personally I would ignore that bearish engulfing candle because I couldn't see any stacks of retail buy orders (and by right, we would be already in a Long trade anyway)
What is interesting however, that little retracement was tested again the next day and formed the Tuesday Low (which for me is a significant price information). If theres equal lows on these day's low, then I qualify it as a valid potential liquidity pool.
Everthing else after that is self explanatory (and i'm generally a lazy person.. writing this takes a lot of effort for me)
/** This is not an entry & exit based trading strategy
ETH/USD: Breakout is coming - Accumulation endedIf you like my work feel free to leave a like and follow not to miss any trade. We successfully fulfilled 12.5R with ETH/USD last night and caught BTC/USD at 10.4k a few days ago.
BTC/USD has proven within the last 24 hours that a set of clear highs and higher lows indicates strong willingness to break out and aim for liquidity pools.
As POC from yearly-high clearly shows, high-volume positions have been accumulated within our highs-higherlows set. Therefore I‘m targeting for $269 - $288 in the short run and leaving my long from $219 opened.
ETH/USD: Potential +388% Setup - Breakout soon - Multi-TimeframeDo not forget to leave a like and follow not to miss any of my setups. They are truly appreciated:)
Starting off with HTF we are looking for a strong weekly close above $225 as it reflects our long-term POC (ever since ATH). Followed by a run-up to POC of the recent sell-off at $306 there would be potential to form a range between $269 - $306 before taking off to new yearly highs.
Potential price targets based on liquidity pools: $269-$306-$397-$466-$619-$787-$866-$1047
A break of $169 would indicate a dump to yearly POC lying at $138.
Leverage: 3.5x (Liquidation price: $161)
Make sure to check out the comment/update section regularly for both LTF and HTF analysis.
LTF: Low-timeframe (1m - 15m)
MTF: Mid-timeframe (1h - 4h) (addition: MTF is the term I am using for myself)
HTF: High-timeframe (12h - monthly)
The BIG BTC Shakeout...Don't be fooled, BE PREPARED! FUN TIMES!Longs getting rekt, then shorts will get rekt and most will get left behind.
Looking at COINBASE:BTCUSD on the 3 DAY, because the big profit is in the broader moves.
When you throw a tennis ball hard at the ground, does it bounce higher than where you released it from?
-It's gonna come down even faster than it went up, and if buy orders aren't in place you'll be chasing an entry after the hard bounce.
-Violent move down just starting, longs getting liquidated and stop losses getting hit...still more pain to come.
-Think about how market movers leave the most people behind...destroy the hopes of 10k anytime soon, only to be above it after massive rally bounce after sweep below 6k. (HINT: LOADS OF LIQUIDITY BELOW 6K)
-This is the BIG SHAKEOUT.
6K will be broken just long enough to draw in all the bears and turn bulls to bears. Market will reverse and use all those shorts, which already outnumber the longs to rocket it's way back to 5 figures...
Close Below $5150 and I'd say this is a failed idea, but until then it's still bullish correction/shakeout.
What are your thoughts? Please share your ideas and let's discuss
Liquidando a todo el mundo (Swing: Long & Short)Bajo el concepto de que Bitmex empuja el mercado en función de que pierdan la mayor cantidad de jugadores, para de esta forma aprovechar la liquidez.
Los rectángulos rojos son pools de liquidez.
Entre hoy y mañana debiera subir el precio hasta los 8916-9072 para luego bajar bajar y bajar.
Short: Un buen punto de entrada para el Short es arriba de los 8914.
Long: Se puede operar el Long también, pero es un poco más peligroso. Un buen punto de entrada es abajo de los 8649. Yo entre anoche en 8522.
Recuerden, primero Long, luego Short.
En caso de que el mercado se lateralice más de 24 hs este pronóstico puede cambiar (ya que van cambiando los pools de liquidez).