Lira
7.80 in the crosshairs..=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open.
=> From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1).
=> Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension at 7.80.
=> It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above 5.60 so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the move of 2019.
=> This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Starting 5th wave looks imminent...Lira bleeding continues=> Here are once more tracking the 5th wave in the USDTRY. The market has been corrective since August and now it is looking like we have completed the ABC which targeted 5.30.
=> This level was marginally pierced but it never saw any break with momentum which is screaming early alerts for those expecting the bleeding to continue for Turkey to start sticking the knife in once more.
=> Confidence in a base will increase through 5.60 after which the first target for our long s will then be 5.79.
=> In terms of targets for the 5th wave the first level to track is 6.78 assuming wave 5 is the same length as wave 1.
=> The nature of this rally shows there is a good chance of extending that well beyond towards 7.80 which will be the 2.618 target (please see the next USDTRY chart we are uploading for a mid-term map).
USDTRY could hit 6+ and then there are two optionsBlue labels indicate that the correction is over within WXYXZ triple three corrective structure and we can retest the former top above TRY 7.
White labels imply longer consolidation within WXY double three pattern with retesting of former low before the final devaluation.
Both maps show that lira could weaken to 6+ level first.
TRY/JPY - Incoming DropTRY/JPY is currently weak and could potentially break it's bullish support and fall further down.
Place your SL above the high of the current consolidation zone.
To play it safe, one can simply place a Stop Sell order right below the 50 EMA on the 6H chart or simply the current support line to catch the move as it breaks its current support.
I would personally not risk more than 1% on this trade.
Trade safe.