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Lira

Starting 5th wave looks imminent...Lira bleeding continues=> Here are once more tracking the 5th wave in the USDTRY. The market has been corrective since August and now it is looking like we have completed the ABC which targeted 5.30. => This level was marginally pierced but it never saw any break with momentum which is screaming early alerts for those expecting the bleeding to continue for Turkey to start sticking the knife in once more. => Confidence in a base will increase through 5.60 after which the first target for our long s will then be 5.79. => In terms of targets for the 5th wave the first level to track is 6.78 assuming wave 5 is the same length as wave 1. => The nature of this rally shows there is a good chance of extending that well beyond towards 7.80 which will be the 2.618 target (please see the next USDTRY chart we are uploading for a mid-term map).
Long
by ridethepig
Countertrade news on USDTRY (forex)Countertrade news on USDTRY (forex) Warren Buffett: “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Sir John Templeton: ''Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. '' ''If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.'' ''The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different'.'' Alan Greenspan: ''Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money.''
Long
by Counter
1
USD/TRY potential LongThis potential Long entry point in the chart is based on multiple technical and fundamental confluences, most of which i'm not going to give out Note that FX markets and Turkish lira movement is based on fundamental information as any breakout of technical levels happens for fundamental reasons so I highly advise you to be unbiased and watch topic related news and periodical economic releases. My stance (long/short/TP/SL/entry point) might change anytime if some new crucial info would come out. Note that Turkey has highest USD denominated corporate debt burden among emerging market countries, with maturities sharply rising from 2019 and peaking in 2022. Meaning any near/medium term USD strength will have negative Lira effect as USD strength will complicate Turkish foreign debt repayment and will have negative pressure on Lira (USD/TRY strength) Stance of TCMB on any potential Lira weakness will be interesting to see as well as FED tightening Greek philosopher Plato once said "Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance" Don't ignore anything and do your own research thoroughly before you commit any capital. You can make money pretty quick in FX markets but you can lose them faster than anyone
Long
by Chuck-Norris
Looking for a sure way to make money even if you are wrong?Let me present: the Turkish Lira carry trade. Erdogan is a nice guy giving us free money if we invest in his dead currency. There is probably bullish divergence here so I would wait either for resistance to get hit, or a break down, maybe an inside bar, anything to get that juicy juicy trade. Against the euro the rate is even higher I did not check with every broker, maybe rates are even better elsewhere. Be sure to keep an eye on this. If: - You go short and it goes down you make heaps of money - It goes sideways for a long while, which could happen it went down alot, you make heaps of money. - It goes up you lose some. the risk reward does not need to be very attractive, if your stop is far away, it will probably take alot of time to get reached, and during that time Erdogan showers you in gifts :) That carry trade is what made the thing explode (I think?) so there is this danger, but it exploded too much .... It seems to be still interesting, just don't do it blindly and stupidly look for a trade that would be profitable on its own (50% odds and 1:1 good enough), selling a break or at resistance good enough. I did not look at all the details maybe it is not as interesting as I think :p
Short
by MrRenev
Countertrade bearish news on USDTRY (forex)Countertrade bearish news on USDTRY (forex) Warren Buffett: “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Sir John Templeton: ''Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. '' ''If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.'' ''The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different'.'' Alan Greenspan: ''Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money.''
Long
by Counter
USD-TRY prise sharply crossed 5.6000 levelAs we posted last week, USD-TRY prise sharply crossed 5.6000 level, now trading around 5.7640 We think that before TCMB meeting price will be above our 5.7760 (R1) target, as we mentioned before 25 october is important to make longer term forecast. But it must be mentioned that USD is advancing versus major currencies from monday, so the price of Lira dropped to 5.70 not because of negative trend for Turkish currency, but due to USD fluctuations. Targets: Resistance - 5.7760 (R1); 5.9092 (R2) Support - 5.7168 (S2); 5.6456 (S1); Important topics which had an impact on currency market, during last week: * Khashoggi crisis * Berat Albayrak“Fluctuations in...finance sector have ended” * Trump - "Feds going loco!" * Brexit stuck * TCMB release
Short
by AmiranAzaladze
USD TRY, US dollar Turkish lira forecast and analysis As we posted last week, USD-TRY prise sharply crossed 5.6000 level, now trading around 5.7640 We think that before TCMB meeting price will be above our 5.7760 (R1) target, as we mentioned before 25 october is important to make longer term forecast. But it must be mentioned that USD is advancing versus major currencies from monday, so the price of Lira dropped to 5.70 not because of negative trend for Turkish currency, but due to USD fluctuations. Targets: Resistance - 5.7760 (R1); 5.9092 (R2) Support - 5.7168 (S2); 5.6456 (S1); Important topics which had an impact on currency market, during last week: * Khashoggi crisis * Berat Albayrak“Fluctuations in...finance sector have ended” * Trump - "Feds going loco!" * Brexit stuck * TCMB release
Short
by AmiranAzaladze