USD-TRY forecast and short term analysis As we posted last week, USD-TRY prise sharply crossed 5.6000 level, now trading around 5.7640
We think that before TCMB meeting price will be above our 5.7760 (R1) target, as we mentioned before 25 october is important to make longer term forecast. But it must be mentioned that USD is advancing versus major currencies from monday, so the price of Lira dropped to 5.70 not because of negative trend for Turkish currency, but due to USD fluctuations.
Targets:
Resistance - 5.7760 (R1); 5.9092 (R2)
Support - 5.7168 (S2); 5.6456 (S1);
Important topics which had an impact on currency market, during last week:
* Kashoggi crisis
* Berat Albayrak“Fluctuations in...finance sector have ended”
* Trump - "Feds going loco!"
* Brexit stuck
* TCMB release
Amiran Azaladze
amiranazaladze@gmail.com
Lira
Time to get to work on Turkey ... again=> Here we are tracking profit taking for shorts after an AB = CD leg in EURTRY
=> Nothing has changed on the macro side in Turkey and we have positive Euro flows starting to enter back into the picture as we start thinking about the unwinding of QE.
=> Our target at 7.34158 is the last daily R before we finished breaking down on this 'CD' leg whilst our stops remain below the lows
=> A break of the channel will trigger stops and should clear targets swiftly.. lets see how this one goes.
=> Good luck
USD/TRYWestern media is doing everything to get lira below $5.5 so (((they))) can stock up on longs and then destroy the lira pushing it above $7.1
-Central bank increasing interest rates, Turkey trying to regain investor confidence, talks about pastor
A lot of money to be made on this conflict. Short the retrace, and long below 5.5
Turkey are not out of the woods just yet...=> The most recent rally failed to test the highs and implies that we are set for some period of corrective activity.
=> Bulls are taking profits as the momentum runs out of steam and this will provide the catalyst for the break of 5.9744. A close below here would then unlock the 38.2 fib levels next.
=> Similarly to our USDRUB and USDINR ideas, EM currencies are set up for quirky bearish trend reversal.
=> Good luck all
$TRY Find Bottom?Turkey Lira find bottom against US Dollar now?
President Erdogan doing everything to hold up the economy bully from US Government under Trump administrations. I think If this effort holds up we're praying that their country getting better, because their role is quite significant in Middle-East countries for muslim community all over the world. Turkey will be one of many nations that really care about muslim community and that's why they receive mass rounding from their enemies. We should fight and pray together.