Down until mid next weekNext week = uptrending, low of the week will be around tuesday
If next week is uptrending, the week after that pastor will be released on the 11th of October
Lira
USD/TRYWestern media is doing everything to get lira below $5.5 so (((they))) can stock up on longs and then destroy the lira pushing it above $7.1
-Central bank increasing interest rates, Turkey trying to regain investor confidence, talks about pastor
A lot of money to be made on this conflict. Short the retrace, and long below 5.5
TRYZAR Symmetrical Triangle. Get Ready for a breakout!Symmetrical triangle usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. so there is a higher chance of breaking out to the DOWNSIDE
USDTRY updated chart. Consolidation is over!It looks like all 5 waves are in place within a triangular consolidation mapped earlier (see related).
The structure was completed faster than expected.
Another drop of lira is ahead to hit the minimum target above the 7 handle.
Turkey are not out of the woods just yet...=> The most recent rally failed to test the highs and implies that we are set for some period of corrective activity.
=> Bulls are taking profits as the momentum runs out of steam and this will provide the catalyst for the break of 5.9744. A close below here would then unlock the 38.2 fib levels next.
=> Similarly to our USDRUB and USDINR ideas, EM currencies are set up for quirky bearish trend reversal.
=> Good luck all
$TRY Find Bottom?Turkey Lira find bottom against US Dollar now?
President Erdogan doing everything to hold up the economy bully from US Government under Trump administrations. I think If this effort holds up we're praying that their country getting better, because their role is quite significant in Middle-East countries for muslim community all over the world. Turkey will be one of many nations that really care about muslim community and that's why they receive mass rounding from their enemies. We should fight and pray together.
USDTRY. Possible triangle. Target 7.08Lira could drop after finishing triangular correction to hit at least the earlier top at the 7.08
Erdogan Chapter 34324234=> We are continuing to position to the sell side in the Lira against the dollar ahead of the interest rate decision on Thursday.
=> The Turkish central bank will take action as widely expected by markets after inflation continued to tick higher out of control.
=> In the interim we see a very short term opportunity here with our targets at 6.58 and our stops at 6.38
=> Best of luck all
USDTRY Possible Ending Diagonal?Hi,
First of all, I am not an elliott expert. So, you should not open any positions with this analysis.
If my analysis true, I am seeing an ending diagonal at 5.th wave.
Ending diagonals can be seen at 5th. wave of bigger degree motive wave, or C wave of bigger degree of correction wave.
So as you can see in the chart, I am expecting a rise before a big fall. I can't give you any take profit or stop loss point. Should wait end of 5th wave of diagonal.
Note: There may be an infringement that may invalidate the count: As far as I know, the second wave can not be a triangle
Bests,
Flag-Pattern forming a nice Buy-Chance! #PotentialHey tradomaniacs,
another Chance is forming right now.
A Flag-Pattern is usually a trend continuation pattern and should give us a nice Buy-Signal as soon as we see the Breakout. :-)
If we Break down below the important support we could also sell.
Just be ready for all scenarios. :-) VOLUME inc.
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Trading2ez
Wanna se more? Don`t forget to follow me! :-)
Any questions? Need education or more signals? Pm me. :-)
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years :
UK interest rates = 0,74
Turkey interest rates = 23
If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is :
23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly)
Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky.
This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Least path of resistance and low volume! Higher prices are closeMACD crossed and very low volume phase started. No hard selling or any action that changes the price. While the weekly chart looks like a bearish flag, the daily chart is telling me something will happen soon. Watch for 20 moving average. It isn't going to be taken down easily. In the first higher high green daily candle, it is a but for surge with a stop loss below the last red candle. Try to take a position on the 20 SMA, if you intend to take a position. here is not a lot of resistance on the path of a new high around 7.6.
USD/TRY lira potential scenarioA lot of political activity happening on this pair. Technicals are quite strong, further bullish outlook if it breaks 7.
Guess who is finally joining the club of third world countries?Thanks to yet another iron hand plastic brain incompetent leader the once great power did it.
They are now heading for the club of third world countries :)
Be careful who you vote for. The best of the best is "boring".
"I will change everything" "I am strong willed" has not worked in 100.000 years yet "people" still fall for it XD
We are going to have to bail them out, and who is going to pay? The same as usual...
The USA represent 16.52% of the IMF, while europe's major economies (Germany UK France Italy) represent 16.4%. 33% for those alone.
All of this is probably not good for the west either.
www.project-syndicate.org
piie.com
Strong hand and strong will president that we all regularly see in the news forced every one to take big loans, in particular grab money from foreign countries (preferably allies), to push the economy up and make the country great again (where did I hear that again?).
Of course these idiotic policies and whole way of governing obliterated the country.
But I am not here to recommend shorting the Turkey economy or anything. I personally prefer to stay away here.
Unless you know everything about it - and even then it seems risky - there is no point getting involved.
Trading is about making plenty of small safe trades, while knowing the probabilities are in your favor.
Not about gambling.
And what says it cannot move 30% in a day again? Enjoy that slippage.
George Soros made (AND LOST) billions going against countries like this, but now it is probabily too late for the Lira.
Maybe it is all a trap and it will bounce back?
I am not touching this. No thanks.
If Turkey gets really, and I mean REALLY, abandonned (investor-wise), it could become undervalued.
On an investment perspective this might get interesting...
Lira takes a breather -equilibrium between $7 and $5.8 possibleHello my dear USD/TRY traders, hope you're doing fine guys! :)
Since the last time we spoke, USD/TRY spiraled to 7 Dollars, which is seeing many traders jumping on the train. So obviously a correction here had to come and is very normal. We have retraced back to 5.68 with the wicks -and now we're gonna wait and see, what pattern we get at the top.
Fundamental news that had an effect were:
Qatar pledging help to Turkey
The central bank/government curbing the possbility of banks to lend money tot short sellers from 50% to 25%
Turkey responding with tarrifs to US consumer goods
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About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
