Lira
Erdogan Chapter 34324234=> We are continuing to position to the sell side in the Lira against the dollar ahead of the interest rate decision on Thursday.
=> The Turkish central bank will take action as widely expected by markets after inflation continued to tick higher out of control.
=> In the interim we see a very short term opportunity here with our targets at 6.58 and our stops at 6.38
=> Best of luck all
USDTRY Possible Ending Diagonal?Hi,
First of all, I am not an elliott expert. So, you should not open any positions with this analysis.
If my analysis true, I am seeing an ending diagonal at 5.th wave.
Ending diagonals can be seen at 5th. wave of bigger degree motive wave, or C wave of bigger degree of correction wave.
So as you can see in the chart, I am expecting a rise before a big fall. I can't give you any take profit or stop loss point. Should wait end of 5th wave of diagonal.
Note: There may be an infringement that may invalidate the count: As far as I know, the second wave can not be a triangle
Bests,
Flag-Pattern forming a nice Buy-Chance! #PotentialHey tradomaniacs,
another Chance is forming right now.
A Flag-Pattern is usually a trend continuation pattern and should give us a nice Buy-Signal as soon as we see the Breakout. :-)
If we Break down below the important support we could also sell.
Just be ready for all scenarios. :-) VOLUME inc.
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Trading2ez
Wanna se more? Don`t forget to follow me! :-)
Any questions? Need education or more signals? Pm me. :-)
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years :
UK interest rates = 0,74
Turkey interest rates = 23
If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is :
23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly)
Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky.
This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Least path of resistance and low volume! Higher prices are closeMACD crossed and very low volume phase started. No hard selling or any action that changes the price. While the weekly chart looks like a bearish flag, the daily chart is telling me something will happen soon. Watch for 20 moving average. It isn't going to be taken down easily. In the first higher high green daily candle, it is a but for surge with a stop loss below the last red candle. Try to take a position on the 20 SMA, if you intend to take a position. here is not a lot of resistance on the path of a new high around 7.6.
Guess who is finally joining the club of third world countries?Thanks to yet another iron hand plastic brain incompetent leader the once great power did it.
They are now heading for the club of third world countries :)
Be careful who you vote for. The best of the best is "boring".
"I will change everything" "I am strong willed" has not worked in 100.000 years yet "people" still fall for it XD
We are going to have to bail them out, and who is going to pay? The same as usual...
The USA represent 16.52% of the IMF, while europe's major economies (Germany UK France Italy) represent 16.4%. 33% for those alone.
All of this is probably not good for the west either.
www.project-syndicate.org
piie.com
Strong hand and strong will president that we all regularly see in the news forced every one to take big loans, in particular grab money from foreign countries (preferably allies), to push the economy up and make the country great again (where did I hear that again?).
Of course these idiotic policies and whole way of governing obliterated the country.
But I am not here to recommend shorting the Turkey economy or anything. I personally prefer to stay away here.
Unless you know everything about it - and even then it seems risky - there is no point getting involved.
Trading is about making plenty of small safe trades, while knowing the probabilities are in your favor.
Not about gambling.
And what says it cannot move 30% in a day again? Enjoy that slippage.
George Soros made (AND LOST) billions going against countries like this, but now it is probabily too late for the Lira.
Maybe it is all a trap and it will bounce back?
I am not touching this. No thanks.
If Turkey gets really, and I mean REALLY, abandonned (investor-wise), it could become undervalued.
On an investment perspective this might get interesting...
Lira takes a breather -equilibrium between $7 and $5.8 possibleHello my dear USD/TRY traders, hope you're doing fine guys! :)
Since the last time we spoke, USD/TRY spiraled to 7 Dollars, which is seeing many traders jumping on the train. So obviously a correction here had to come and is very normal. We have retraced back to 5.68 with the wicks -and now we're gonna wait and see, what pattern we get at the top.
Fundamental news that had an effect were:
Qatar pledging help to Turkey
The central bank/government curbing the possbility of banks to lend money tot short sellers from 50% to 25%
Turkey responding with tarrifs to US consumer goods
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Analyses!
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
A great opportunity to buy in Turkish Lira. keep your eye on it.Midterm forecast:
5.0000 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 5.0000 is broken.
Trading suggestion:
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support zone (5.9300 to 5.6450). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (5.9300)
Ending of entry zone (5.6450)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Buy zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Bullish Engulfing ", " Hammer " or " Valley " in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about " Entry signal " and the special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons :
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 88.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 6.0000
TP2= @ 6.2100
TP3= @ 6.5600
TP4= @ 7.0000
TP5= @ 7.1200
TP6= Free
Previous Trade Setup:
We opened 4 BUY trade(s) @ 4.7302 based on 'Trough (Valley)' entry method at 2018.07.09.
Total Profit: 22017 pip
Closed trade(s): 5354 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 16663 pip Profit
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 4.8035 touched at 2018.07.11 with 733 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 4.9225 touched at 2018.07.12 with 1923 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 5.0000 touched at 2018.08.01 with 2698 pip Profit.
733 + 1923 + 2698 = 5354 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 6.3965(current price) - 4.7302(open price) = 16663 pip
1 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 16663 x 1 = 16663 pip
USD/TRY Turkish Lira Aug 2018This will be my views of USD/TRY Aug 2018
Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way.
Cheers.
S0nic
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