Lira
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
USDTRY OPPUTUNITY WITHIN RANGETrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends suited for swing trading. This system is made of custom adaptive volume indicators and Oscillators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at dynamic S/R zones once the trend has ended. // Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone.
USDTRY
To open long positions for usdtry , it is required:
In this situation our system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the upside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid and we can see this pair fall to 3.76800. Market execution for entry, I will confirm signal once the conditions have been met.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 668 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing low.
Profit expectations: 1-4 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Short term decline in progressThe US Dollar is one of the many currencies, which are gaining strength against the Turkish Lira. Although the most patterns are similar on the pairs that involve the currency of Turkey, there are minor differences.
In regards to the USD/TRY currency exchange rate the most notable difference is the fact that the pair is a the moment trading in a junior channel down pattern. The pattern is set to guide the currency pair down to the support of the most dominant pattern near the 3.90 mark.
Afterwards a continuation of the long term surge can be expected.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Euro at new heightsThe common European currency continues to book new high levels against the Turkish Lira. On all timeframes and scales the currency pair is surging and it has been like that for a few years.
In the short term the pair is set to continue the surge. It should occur after the currency exchange rate finds support in a combined support cluster near the 4.66 mark.
Afterwards the Euro will have the range up to the 4.7930 level free from resistance against the Turkish currency.
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira
This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short
Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive
impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes
a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the
parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting
opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down
could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come
all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time.
It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short
whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic.
A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
USDTRY. Breakout of correction. Previous top is a target.The pair broke above the resistance finishing correction.
The previous top is the minimum target.
Risk/reward more than 2.
US Dollar moved in a mighty bullish move recently against all major and emerging market currencies after Fed billed the trim of its balance and secured the yield rise in December. US T-notes already dropped huge. Demand for USD will rise as risk free interest rate will inrease.
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend.
Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well.
Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns.
In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rising WedgeTRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rising Wedge
The Turkish Lira is losing value against the Japanese Yen in an ascending channel that began to form one week ago. The pattern managed to gain four confirmation points before it started to transform into a rising wedge.
In this kind of figures the currency rate usually makes a breakout in the bottom direction. However, this time the southern side is reliable secured by a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. In contrast, the opposite side does not have any obstacles up until the weekly R2 at 31.7523 that will be updated on Monday.
Therefore, the might shortly sneak to the bottom, but then make a rebound and continue the surge.
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel DownUSD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Down
The American Dollar is losing value against the Turkish Lira simultaneously in short-term and medium-term descending channels.
Formation of the channel started after the currency exchange rate bounced off from a combined resistance level formed by the 55- and 200-hour SMAs.
At the moment, the pair is gradually slipping towards the weekly S1 at 3.5067, while path to the north is secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
In theory , the pattern should remain active at least until the rate reaches the above support level.
But in practice , it will be broken, most probably, already in the second half of the day amid announcement of information on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
If the released figures will justify analysts’ expectations, the pair might even fall below the weekly S1.