USD/TRY 4H Chart: Review after turbulenceThe USD/TRY pair has been mostly affected by the fundamentally economical, damaging reforms of the Turkish government. Moreover, recent events in the Turkish bond market have massively increased volatility.
However, rather incredibly the currency rates sudden decline began in consistency with the long term ascending channel pattern, which represents the surge of the recent months.
In accordance with the pattern, the US Dollar should decline against the Lira until it reaches the support of the channel. It could occur in any way, as the support can be touched by trading downwards, sideways or even going higher.
Lira
The Danger ZoneBreaking through the important pivot level of R2, the USDTRY continues to rally of the back of expected interest rate hikes. President Erdogan's monetary policy comments had little dampening effect with the USDTRY skipping past the key 4.38 level. Will Turkey's Central Bank be able to manage the current levels of inflation in the short term? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
Here we are approaching something here. Sleepy Central Banking..While our goverment officals sleeping and doing nothing the price action started a cup and handle rally..
Here we have something.
It is approaching to the target levels..
Can our officers do anything.. ? In past years we all decided they are happy about this thing..
This can be sideway but it didnt.. When past 4 price we got sure that this is a cup and handle rally..
Here all investors are alone in this cruel world.. Central banking sleeps.... So they got paid well..
God bless them with their paycheck.. They made Turkish Lira currency Worst Money In the World..
hallelujah.....
EURTRY ShortThe uptrend from late last week has been broken. It was actually broken last Friday before the market closed. Hard rejection from a previous and we've also produced a nice head and shoulders pattern. I'm short on EURTRY and will take profit in the 4.96-4.94 area.
Best of luck trading and as always, please comment your opinions below.
Thank you!
USDTRY ShortFundamentally speaking, the Lira has been weakened due to the CBRT staying pat on their rate decision and allowing the double digit inflation to continue. However, daily studies indicate that the RSI has become severely overbought and this pair will correct in the coming days. I will look to close my shorts in profit around the 3.84xx range. Best of luck!
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
USDTRY OPPUTUNITY WITHIN RANGETrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends suited for swing trading. This system is made of custom adaptive volume indicators and Oscillators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at dynamic S/R zones once the trend has ended. // Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone.
USDTRY
To open long positions for usdtry , it is required:
In this situation our system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the upside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid and we can see this pair fall to 3.76800. Market execution for entry, I will confirm signal once the conditions have been met.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 668 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing low.
Profit expectations: 1-4 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Short term decline in progressThe US Dollar is one of the many currencies, which are gaining strength against the Turkish Lira. Although the most patterns are similar on the pairs that involve the currency of Turkey, there are minor differences.
In regards to the USD/TRY currency exchange rate the most notable difference is the fact that the pair is a the moment trading in a junior channel down pattern. The pattern is set to guide the currency pair down to the support of the most dominant pattern near the 3.90 mark.
Afterwards a continuation of the long term surge can be expected.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Euro at new heightsThe common European currency continues to book new high levels against the Turkish Lira. On all timeframes and scales the currency pair is surging and it has been like that for a few years.
In the short term the pair is set to continue the surge. It should occur after the currency exchange rate finds support in a combined support cluster near the 4.66 mark.
Afterwards the Euro will have the range up to the 4.7930 level free from resistance against the Turkish currency.
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira
This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short
Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive
impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes
a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the
parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting
opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down
could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come
all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time.
It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short
whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic.
A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
USDTRY. Breakout of correction. Previous top is a target.The pair broke above the resistance finishing correction.
The previous top is the minimum target.
Risk/reward more than 2.
US Dollar moved in a mighty bullish move recently against all major and emerging market currencies after Fed billed the trim of its balance and secured the yield rise in December. US T-notes already dropped huge. Demand for USD will rise as risk free interest rate will inrease.