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$USD v. $TRY - #elliottwave & Predictive/Forecasting AnalysisFriends, Predictive/Forecasting Model hit an unannounced target at the current price vicinity of 3.06557. I have constructed this DAILY chart to comprise three degrees of Elliott Waves: Cycle, Primary and Intermediate. In these relative terms, the recent top would likely represent cycle III of a Period of an Intermediate (5). The relevance of this detailed nomenclature is relative to its internal parts, but also to the probable price action we are about to face. The most important element here is that we are likely arrived at a significant resistance, topping a cycle-degree impulse, and now descending to a probable correction into a Cycle wave IV. EQUALITY: Keeping a quasi-equality among Wave II and Wave IV, we are expecting a possible 434 resolution of a correction/impulse completion, first as the aforementioned Cycle Wave IV, and a final push to higher highs as an impulsive Cycle Wave V. ALTERNATION: Consideration must be given to Elliott Wave's Rule Of Alternation, wherein Cycle Wave II corrected into a complex 5-3-5 zigzag (more specifically a declining Leading Diagonal, followed by a rising Triple Zigzag, then concludinghte entire correction into a declining Impulse - The overall motion is detailed as "LD-TZ-IMP" over a 434 daily bar span). Conversely, the alternation in the current Cycle Wave IV correction should occur as a simpler IMP-ZZ-IMP, giving shape to the simpler ZZ prescribed in the chart as the larger PINK zig-zag. TARGETS - ELLIOTT WAVE & FORECASTING/PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED: - ELLIOTT WAVE SUPPORTIVE TARGET: There are two targets in the chart. First, a supportive target defined by expectation of Elliott Wave's rule of correction seeking origination level of a preceding Wave-4 of one lesser degree, hence sought out at Intermediate Wave (4) = 2.62980. Staying respectful of the aforementioned EQUALITY rule, the projected height of Cycle Wave II is thus used to approximate the termination level of Cycle Wave IV, such that the top of the range anchors at Cycle wave III = Primary = Intermediate (5). This does NOT result in any Fibonacci cluster, as the Fibonacci matrix is anchored at Intermediate (2) to Intermediate (5), and fails to offer a cluster at the 0.618 level. This level was relevant at the bottom left of the chart, since it offered the launching base from Cycle II completion to the recent Cycle III completion. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL TARGET: The Predictive/Forecasting Model here offers a final target, namely: - TG-Hix = 3.26772 - 14 OCT 2015 This target is a qualitative designation (ie.: TG- Hi/Lo and TG-Hi.Hix), which is associated with reversals rather than retracements. This means that if and once price rallies from the approximate base just defined, we are likely to see significant rejection and a probable roll-over. Note that the 0.618-Fib level that correlates the two Cycle Wave II and IV can be used as a measure of anticipation, perfectly lining up its infamous 1.414-Fib, which is the value I often seek in an aggressive counter-trend market where reversals tend to occur. OVERALL: Look for a probable simpler correction to the levels defined, and an impulsive Cycle Wave completion at the Predictive/Forecasting Model target of 3.26772. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- .
by 4xForecaster
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Currency Pair Commodity Pricing Divergence Identification MethodThis is a Method to follow Currency pair and pricing divergence of a Commodity to a Base Currency This demonstrative example is from from Gold in various currencies to Turkish Lira ₺ You can recreate this for your own purpose by following the same formulas. Because that symbol does not exist we have to divide pairs that have a common denominator. We will use XAUUSD (which is Gold/US Dollar) and divide it by TRYUSD (which is Lira/US Dollar) When dividing fractions you invert the denominator and multiply. So (XAUUSD)/(TRYUSD) = (XAUUSD)*(USDTRY) *Note: It is important to notice that these two values produce different results in the graph, by pulling data from two different feeds. In this Chart XAUUSD/TRYUSD USDTRY/XAUUSD (RED) Another exemplary pair is XAUCAD. It's Currency pair is TRYCAD. So the Formula is simply XAUCAD/TRYCAD Also in this chart XAUEUR/TRYEUR XAUGBP/TRYGBP XAUJPY/TRYJPY XAUXCU/TRYXCU XAUZAR/TRYZAR (PURPLE) Sometimes both sides of currency pairs aren't available on TradingView. We have XAUNZD available, but we only have NZDTRY available. To solve this we use the formula XAUNZD/(1/NZDTRY) Dividing by a fraction with a 1/fraction as a denominator provides us with the inverse symbol of TRYNZD Also in this chart XAUAUD/(1/AUDTRY) (BLUE) In more extreme cases, there is no currency pair available at all. In this situation, we have to create a pairing. There is no CNY to TRY or inverse symbol but there is XAUCNY So, we convert the XAUCNY value to a value that has a pair. For this example we will go back to the US Dollar before converting it to the Base Currency. (XAUCNY/(1/CNYUSD))/TRYUSD Also in this chart (XAUINR/(1/INRUSD))/TRYUSD (XAUNPR/(1/NPRUSD))/TRYUSD (GREEN) Forumulas with equal value are also included XAUUSD/(1/USDTRY) USDTRY/(1/XAUUSD) XAUUSD*USDTRY USDTRY*XAUUSD
FX:XAUUSD
by nvrstpexploring