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Lira

Midterm USD/TRY ideaHello Traders, I was away for a couple of months due to personal matters, but I am determined to support you again with my outstanding ideas in 2022. So let do this! A beautiful curve stick pattern is forming. Buy USD/TRY at 12.8 TP 1: 13.94 TP 2: 14.60 SL: 11.22 The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involves the risk of loss.
Long
by Hossein-Rouzbahani
2
Turkish lira need some courage to analyzeThis is a classic example of risk management, if there is anyone who is over leveraged before the crash, the account must have been wiped out. I wish noone be in that position but if there is any survivor then probably a story to tell and help the community. Why I am inclined towards long. #1 : This is a retracement of the entire move from the beginning of USDTRY until 12/20/21 and we are at the moment between 38% and 50% fib level. is there a room for this to fall more, oh yes upto may be 50% at first which also confluence with 10 days moving average. Opportunity to sell every bounce with a good risk management #2 : Then let's take the entire move of 2021 and breached 61.8% , one more leg down further would take us to 78% weekly level which is where level from #1 comes. accumulate slow and steady with good risk management #3 : The price is in range bound at the moment between 12.5 and 10.5 Sell high and buy low with a good risk management Where do I stand, I am bullish dollar that should say everything. All of the above are price analysis not a time analysis and my personal opinion. If you are not in this trade then staying out is better but if you are a survivor then either of 3 options should be helpful. Good luck.
Long
by letslearn
3
USD/TRY High Volatility, strong sell-offWe said it 30 minutes before this massive short-selling. "it will go up until the Turkish Government decides to react." And they did. At Human traders we provided two selling signals, and we are short this forex pair. Volatility remains high and there are a lot of forex traders closing positions. For those who want to trade this one, we recommend you to stay on the sideline until the correction by that piece of news finishes. Then, we will close our position out and buy USD/TRY again for a long-term scenario with Forward Contracts.
Short
by alvaromroo
5
usdtryEveryone wants to know where it's going...Why not just scalp these areas USDTRY THE MAIN FOREX PAIR that has been very active in the news in 2021. Generally speaking all main gaps get filled...Let's see where market should fined some two way auction. My main trading analysis is always through orderflow & volume profile . I mainly scalp Futures (ES & NQ) I have Long-term stock portfolio & some crypto accounts but will be building on to these more & more in 2022! I haven't been very active on #Tradingview for sometime, but I will try to have some posts on here on a weekly basis. Wishing you all a Happy New Year & all the best in your #trading Emini Os
U
by EminiOs
USD/TRY Turkish Lira UpdateThis week has seen the USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate drop from a high of 18.25 TL per Dollar to a close at 11 TL per Dollar. In my previous idea published in January 2021. The concepts I laid out in that idea are still valid. The curve I drew still holds intact. RSI is still rising in the parallel channel. The recent spike has seen RSI reach even higher value than ever before. I still hold that this trend will continue until 2026 where the exchange rate will be 18 TL for the Dollar; and I'm talking about the normal stable every day rate, not a temporary spike like in the past month. Another thing to notice is the volatility. The previous spike in January 2017 reached a high that is 30% above my curve. The spike in September 2018 reached a high 71% above the curve, and lastly, the December 2021 spike reached a high 104% above the curve. As we go further in this trend, the spikes will be more volatile and we could see the rate triple in a matter of weeks, only to come back down the following week. This instability severely disturbs daily transactions both domestic and international which will push foreign investors away from Turkey. Already many investors are prepared to slowly pull out their capital as they say this instability occur right at the time of closing the books at the end of the year. Turks are already pricing their goods in Dollar and Euro having little confidence in the value of the TL. These factors will only worsen the situation in the coming years, and their effect is not seen immediately, but over months and years. Without a fundamental policy change, this trend will continue. Trust in the Turkish Central Bank is dropping as hard as the currency is. Throughout 2020, The Turkish government has been the biggest buyer of gold in the world, but they have been also the biggest seller of gold in the same year. The Central Bank is confused as is actually trading gold like an uncertain irresponsible child. The responsible thing to do is to peg the currency to either the Dollar, the Euro, Gold or even better, Bitcoin. It will cause a shock, but it will also bring security, stability and prosperity in less than a decade. You can follow this chart here . Follow me for updates on this chart and others.
Long
by TechNerdOmar
12
Turkish Lira is far from recovery. This is just a quick look at the USDTRY pair. I'm evaluating the recent recovery of the Turkish Lira versus the dollar from about 8.5 TL per dollar to 7.3 TL. In my estimation, this recovery has not shown enough strength to continue. We can see that as soon as it touched the bottom of the drawn curve, RSI has reached the bottom of its parallel channel. That's as far as this recovery will go. In fact, I think the next five years will see the USD appreciate against the TL by 150%, which is exactly as much as it has appreciated during the past five years. This will take it all the way up to 18TL by February 2026. This signal I consider strong enough to predict a complete reversal of this trend is significant RSI divergence, i.e., a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. We have seen one instance of slight RSI divergence shown in the chart which has contributed to a recovery in August 2018 from 7.08 to 5.13 TL. That is 27.5% appreciation for the dollar. To imagine what a significant RSI divergence would look like, consider the most recent top on 2 Nov 2020. Look at the RSI level on that same day. We're looking for a higher top in price where RSI is significantly lower, ideally within the blue zone. That would be a strong signal for trend reversal. Another thing to notice is the blue zone and the ascending parallel channel. What's the meaning of the blue zone? When RSI climbs above it, the asset is said to be overbought. It means that price has went up too high too fast without enough real demand backing it up. However, that interpretation really depends on the parameter used. A better, easier and more reliable way to use RSI is to look for RSI divergence like I explained. That becomes even more relevant for this chart when you notice how RSI levels have been steadily climbing in the parallel channel shown. That means that the overbought zone becomes less and less significant as an indication. But it also means that TL recovery phases will be more and more volatile.
Long
by TechNerdOmar