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Lira

EUR/TRY: long trade closed in profit (Demo) as trend at extreme.Hello traders, the readings on RSI and ATR, as well as the angle of the current hyperbolic move, make for difficult incentives for holding a long trade on EUR/TRY: therefore, I closed my trade about 50% through the profit target and made a healthy catch (over 26k). In this video the key points discussed are: - ATR divergence/waning (multi-timeframe analysis); - RSI poss. divergence and also extreme reading (90+) in monthly/weekly; - angle of hyperbolic rise starting to shape toward a vertical, strikingly similar to that of the 2018 move; - extreme oversold reading in the MSCI Turkey ETF iShares and fading sell volume after historic lows warns of Lira-short exhaustion. I also share a news source that is fundamental for Turkish Lira traders - watch the video to the end (no sales, it is a public resource)! Thanks. Stay safe Happy trading Francesco/FreeFX
by Forexistential
EUR/TRY technical and relative strength analysis.In this video I am looking at the relationship between EUR/TRY and the i-shares MSCI Turkey ETF, which allows us to look at volume data as a proxy for momentum in EUR/TRY, specifically addressing the following question: - is the MSCI Turkey ETF selling overdone? - what does the daily and weekly ETF's RSI tell us? - with the index reaching the 2018 lows, is there any more room to sell? The Lira is on an endless devaluation trajectory, but of course there may be room for some correction in the near future before further EUR/TRY (and other Lira pairs) appreciation. Food for thought. Francesco Sani, FreeFX
Long
by Forexistential
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others. Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources. Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade. Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level. Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
Short
by FX_Professor
1
Money Supply Effect on BTCAs a summary my mid-long term projection is: BTCUSD: Bearish DXY: Bullish BTC.D: Bullish Altcoins: Bearish Contrary to most, i still do not think that money supply will push BTC and crypto prices higher. US dollar is still powerful and till inflation starts to increase and DXY completes its movement, all pairs against USD have to be in correction. At the end i wait very long and greedy bull market for all risky assets including cryptocurrencies and emerging markets. As an example, Turkish lira is one of the worst fiat currencies nowadays all around the world but it is just completing its major cycle against USD. You may check other emerging markets and currencies such as South Africa, Brasil etc. XU100/USDTRY To sum up, instead of a financial collapse, i will be waiting for risk appetite in long term but for now world need US dollar!
BNC:BLXShort
by glnkty
Big Day For USD-TRYUSD TRY shouldn't close today above 7.1 for a lot of technical reasons I cannot possibly mention here. Let me just say that there should be a ton of resistance there. Right now it is surprisingly holding very close to the top. If it doesn't close and spends a few days in this area the possibility's become increasingly bullish. In the event that it closes above 7.1 at any point within next week it's mid term target becomes 9.2 and there will be very little resistance to get there. In the event that it closes today above 7.1 the price will rally like a rocket and 9.2 will be reached in a much shorter timeframe. This is very sad for all Turkish people. And what's even worse is that no one there has a clue about this.
Long
by cankarako
1
ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics. Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves. So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made: Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live: The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
Two great Buy opportunities on this chart for USDTRYMid-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4086). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 41. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4086 TP2= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4123). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 70. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4530 TP2= @ 7.7210 TP3= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
21
💥 Let's be short! Powerful breakdown on Turkish Lira! Deal 2💥 Hello everyone. For some reason, our articles are blocked without explanation, so they are short and to the point. On the chart, we choose the breakout, deal # 2, entry points, goals and volume independently and remember about the risk. PS: In our system, all the signals to buy. You can view the history of all transactions (which have not been deleted yet) in your profile. Be sure to remember about the risks!
ULong
by ivan_gold_star_
New Higher Highs For LiraAnalysis : First time weekly close above the highest pinbar of 2018 devaluation Correlated pairs (gbptry,eurtry) already closed above weekly top Fundamentals : Coronavirus :Jobless claims and inflation rates getting higher during pandemia. low tourism income Negative real interest in TR TR Central Bank can not limited usdtry @ 6,86 and showed us they has negative deposit in real Joe Biden's election winning almost accepted by everyone. Biden's foreign policys is not familiar for TR. That can cause sanctions applied for TR soon Take Profit : Fibonacci extension and trend channel targets 8,20 - 8,40 area Note : This strategy will not be valid if good news announces for Lira/TR Centeral Bank
Long
by SuleymanCem
Pt 2: Turkish Lira → gold & BTC volatility As per previous post, the lira (USDTRY) has been getting hammered in an ongoing currency crisis through mismanaged gov & monetary policy, souring US relations, and COVID hitting the country’s tourism industry. President Erdogan, who has been directly calling the shots at CBRT (Turk cent bank), despises the prospect of raising rates, despite the need to put a floor under the currency amidst a >20% inflation rate eroding the Turkish citizen’s purchasing power quickly. Further monetary mismanagement from their shift to embracing/aggressively accumulating gold reserves has Turkey now exceeding Russia as the largest buyers of gold (hence contributing to gold recent ↑ through record highs) - instead of using their dwindling FX reserves to buy gold at ATH, they “should” be defending the lira, which is now at all time record lows vs the dollar and euro. Along with its pro-gold/anti-dollar (due to sanctions) stance, Turkey has also been aggressively embracing crypto and digital currencies over the past year, with 2020 CBDC rollout. Crypto trading has greatly expanded in Turkey, companies like Binance expanding their local footprint. How this relates to gold and BTC this past week & going forward: •First just to preface: In a recent post shortly BEFORE TSLA Q2 earnings, I had called for TSLA results to be the top for the stock regardless of what they announce (good or bad, net profit/loss), as well as the catalyst to re-start a BTC rally, as the retail driven focus and flows move from one bubble to the next (“one bubble at a time.”) Within 2-3 hours of TSLA Q2 results and investor conference call, BTC jumps +5% kicking off the current rally. May be coincidental (sure doesn’t seem to be), but BTC which until that moment had been trading dead flat, suddenly sprinting to life matches in timing with my call - as opposed to all other commentators citing “central bank printing,” “dollar ↓,” “gold & silver ↑,” and even the halving from months ago. ALL of those things are fundamental reasons for BTC to go up, ALL of those things had BEEN going on (some, like printing fiat, have been going on for over a decade), and NONE of those explain why the markets suddenly decided that was the time to price it in - and therefore are nonsense zero value attempts at explaining. •With that said, I’ve also repeated countless times that the spark catalyst (for both BTC, gold and silver) doesn’t necessarily equal the sustaining driver for upside, in fact that would be highly unlikely. The initial price jump is almost irrelevant, because there are who knows how many hundreds of billions if not more with their fingers on the trigger ready to get long BTC, and to a lesser extent gold and silver, all of them know the fundamental case, and they just need that initial price move confirmation before deploying their capital. So TSLA was the lit match, but the room is already soaked with gasoline - and when fully ablaze, the long-charred matchstick will barely be an afterthought. •Therefore, if Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis (which really began in 2018) is rapidly deteriorating while BTC looks to show SOME signs of life, those who hold lira will jump ship and shift their assets to something, anything, that won’t destroy the value of their liquid assets like the lira has been. Look at the chart- BTCUSD and BTCTRY (along with BTCJPY, BTCEUR etc) have all moved pretty much in tandem % for %, with little spread between BTC and the different fiat pairs. But in the last week, not only is BTC at record highs vs the lira (certainly not vs $ € ¥ £ etc), but the performance spread between BTCTRY and BTCUSD have become notably wide - by double digit % diff within a few days. This is obviously a reflection of dollar vs lira, but shows just how much flows are moving from lira to BTC vs other fiat. It also explains a lot of BTC’s recent post-resurgence pullbacks - Lira volatility with flows in/out based on developments from Ankara. •Gold on the other hand has been on a consistent nonstop surge, until yesterday- as my chart posting from yesterday points out that the gold rally will stall due to the lira sell off reversal. And indeed that seems to be how the day played out. If Turk CB has been the largest buyer of gold though July, then that means they are selling lira (and fx reserves) to buy gold = gold ↑, lira ↓. If reports are true that CBRT reserves are running out, then that means no more inflows to gold from a major contributor to the rally (gold loses upside steam and sellers take hold pushing prices ↓ for healthy correction), and no more lira selling (“no more” as in a slowdown in rate of change terms). So therefore, my view was/is that if the lira starts to reverse and appreciate (USD/TRY ↓), gold will follow. That seems to have happened, and seems to be what finally caused the gold rally to pull back. That’s why my last post was saying: keep an eye on the lira, for both BTC and gold near term directionality. Going forward: Gold and BTC will resume their ascend in the immediate - med term, because of much larger forces than the lira. But thinning bullish volumes towards the top of the gold and silver rally + thin volumes in general for crypto make their price action susceptible to a major EM currency like the lira in crisis. Personally I’m remaining long Gold untouched and just bought (very cheap) puts ahead of the downward move yesterday, which I’ll liquidate and use to add to gold as I keep eyes on Turkey. I took down 25% BTC exposure (25% figure comes from my % gain since getting massively long ahead of TSLA earnings), and plan to redeploy back into BTC. I DO NOT recommend shorting either gold or BTC, as the lira situation can re-reverse in a heartbeat, and/or the (absolutely clueless) bulls will just come in and buy the dip. What started as a TSLA spark has been picked up by Turkish lira holding citizens, obviously in addition to global individuals re-entry to BTC (in dollars, yen, euros, pounds etc). However, it hasn’t been enough of a move to pull in the institutions yet- though it’s still early in the BTC next phase rally, and this is why BTC upside isn’t yet a one directional decisive surge.
Short
by acrossthespread