Get started

Lira

How Will USD Bull Run Continue USD is - still bullish, - has consistent volume, buys are slightly increasing since the beginning of the year. - made the bullish flag in previous year. - hit the bottom of the uptrend channel that validates the target zone at the top of the channel. - Turkish economy is still in fragile-five. Correction to 6.70 (Fib Level 0.236) is possible. It is up to you to wait for that scenario. Entry Zone : 6.70 - 7.00 TRY (Fib Level 0.236) Target Zone : 9.00 - 10.00 TRY (Fib Level 0.786) Stop : 6.40 TRY (Outside of the uptrend channel) Expire Date : Mid 2021 Psychological Levels : 9 - 10 - 12.5 p.s. This is not a trade advice. Do your own research and take your own risks.
Long
by aozan88
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs. Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending. Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside. Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target. But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4. Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it. The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4. Top correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0% 2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2% 3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2% 4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5% 5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2% 6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8% 7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1% 8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1% 9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2% 10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6% Top correlation 1 day 1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2% 2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3% 3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9% 4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4% 5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4% 6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5% 7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6% 8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3% 9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2% 10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3% Top correlation 1 week 1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0% 2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9% 3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8% 4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5% 6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3% 7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5% 8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5% 9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1% 10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
Long
by ICFX
7
USDTRY: WeeklyAs you see, current bullish move was already predictable from October 2019 using TD (DeMark) breakout projection no. 2. Now, price is facing very strong support - May central pivot range (CPR), May Camarilla S3 reversal level, yearly classic S2 pivot, yearly Fibonacci S3 pivot (did not plot the last 2 to have it more clear - but they are there) all at same point, confluence with May S3 reversal level. If this level holds and price is rejected, what is also possible, it will bounce up and continue in uptrend or range above monthly CPR. If price breaks through monthly pivot range, as it is moving quite decisively into it and we have got that weekly pin bar reversal on top, short trade may be taken to former yearly roof R4, now support. At any case May CPR (I highlighted it black) is a fulcrum which holds the price now. If it is pierced through, that is it. After reaching highs, Turkish lira makes those descending ranging tails. What might be a scenario here. But there is a concern - price missed April pivot and April CPR, did not even test those. Such things occur at the onset of strong trends. Next month (or be it a day, week, depending on chart) price pulls back to the pivot and continues higher. So it is very important what happens at May CPR (that highlighted black zone). Price should move lower and touch S3 - May pivot. Then we will react depending on how it will behave after that. S4 is May floor. May roof R4 was pierced, that should be noted too. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
by ICFX
1
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example: After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by... If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY. Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
Long
by ridethepig
7
Emerging markets taking a poundingWhile the emotional crowded is full focussed on the S&P, CoronaVirus, Crypto, "exotic" currencies are all dropping hard. Economic slowdown ==> The poor end up in the street first. Turkish people really hate it when I call their country a third world country. They are in denial poor guys, and have been for decades. Just the way it is not my fault. Parts of europe are too, greece, portugal african country at this point, spain on its way, then the rest of europe. RIP. The monthly chart is pretty clear... It would be pretty nice to get a retrace I only do reversals. I think I understand how going with the trend is, it is much much more forgiving but you very often get small reward to risk. This is not financial advice but it's looking like it is just going to continue and continue and continue. If you long this pair there is big interest against you... Kinda ruins it I feel. In the short term there may be some explosive moves to buy, idk... I guess I was right the first time: Other ones I bet when normies / plebes start hearing of those, or seeing how much they moved they'll get all excited and there will be an assault of legions of reptilian brains and wild moves in random directions, but for now they are rather tame with normies focussed on coronafartinthewind, maybe still brexit a bit, crypto still, and "CO2 is a pollutant" joke of the millenia (Tesla in particular). Real speculators want tame markets, predictable and calm (well volatile but not hysterical). Losers chase the most emotional markets they heard about on the news. I am here to make money, not to talk about the latest popular fad with my family or friends (don't have any).
Long
by MrRenev
1
Potential growth of USDTRY as waging war agains Syria1. Wait for breaking parallel channel or resistance line then take long 2. Wait till lower band of parallel channel and then take long Turkey officially declare war against Syria. it could bring chaos to middle east. Russia also is defending Syria. Turkey threatened NATO to support otherwise it would open its borders and free Syrian refugee to flee to EU countries.Turkey did it and refugees had faced a very bad conflict with police of Bulgaria and Greece (EU Gate). Turkey is drowning as more than 45% of GDP made by external loan from international institution like IMF as an example. How could a country be independent while it has 433 Billion USD external load more than 45% of GDP!? President of Turkey Erdugan said we would not get any dollar from IMF as it would violate our foreign independence. After some months it appears Erdugan could not resist foreign pressure and wage war. If both sides of conflict could not reach an agreement that would be death and destruction. Erdugan could not rescue Turkey economy by doing this and corona virus could damage tourism earning so much so bye bye Lira! bye bye foreign real estate investors! USA will use Turkey like a tissue and then throw it away. History will repeat itself.
Long
by amirameri89
1
USDTRY AnalysisHey Traders, I hope everyone is having a good time as the year is ending and new one is beginning soon; I saw this market or the dollar-Lira which the market has broken the resistance area and then retested, if the market holds above this level and the breakout turns to be real one, then the Lira is going up, my target is the second resistance area which the wig the market made 26th of Aug this year. however, if the breakout turns to be a fake breakout, then the market is gonna sell-off around 5.80 as my level of support, then the market will decide where to go then. Here is the trade setup Scenario 1: Long Trade Setup USDTRY Buy at 5.93133 Stop Loss at 5.8960 Target Profit at 6.03960 If market movement is now fake and the current support area is broken, then the market would turn into short and here is the second scenario for it: Scenario 2: Short Trade Setup USDTRY Sell at 5.88000 Stop Loss at 5.9580 Target Profit at 5.8000 Good Luck and happy new year!
by sirkamal