GBPZAR Fundamental LONGMacro Currency Strength
GBP = 21(+7)
ZAR = -24 (-24)
COT Report Lev Funds
GBP = Long (slightly dec)
ZAR = NA
GDP Differentials = -1.2% (2022 forecast)
IR % Differentials = -3.4%
Weekly Price Trend = Long
Overall, based on fundamental strength, price trend, and COT a Long on GBPZAR looks favourable.
BUT as interest rates, and GDP growth rates showing South Africa coming out on top, the conviction on this long is lower, and therefore decrease risk on this position.
Political Theme Wise:
The UK is slowly coming out of lockdown, with business opening --> but further public injections questions the longevity of pound strength.
Continued COVID related corruption is coming out of the cracks in South Africa, and if this continues, there could be some short term uncertainty of holding ZAR over this period
