Is altseason soon?Hi, traders 👋
I’d like to share my thoughts and observations regarding Bitcoin dominance and the timing of the long-awaited altseason.
In general, I like to determine the phase altcoins are in by analyzing one of the oldest representatives of this group — Litecoin.
Like other financial instruments, cryptocurrency tends to follow certain patterns. Although each cycle comes with its own unique characteristics, historical similarities are often present.
Let’s take a look at the Litecoin chart.
When reviewing the chart, we can see a number of similarities with the previous cycle. Based on this, and if we assume that markets are cyclical and certain chart patterns and behaviors tend to repeat, it appears we are currently either in the equivalent of March or September 2020.
The case for March is supported by the fact that we haven’t yet seen a final liquidity sweep according to the Wyckoff model — the so-called “spring” phase. On the other hand, the case for September is supported by the timing following the end of the previous bear market phase.
Now, let’s take a look at the Bitcoin dominance chart.
In this cycle, the dominance chart has been showing clear and reliable chart patterns.
The pattern that has been forming since November 21, 2024, could potentially be either a Wolfe wave or an ending diagonal triangle according to Elliott Wave theory. At the moment, waves 1, 2, and 3 are clearly visible, and wave 4 is currently in the process of forming. There is also a clear alternation between waves 2 and 4, which strengthens this observation.
If the assumption about the Wolfe wave pattern is correct, we should still see one final push higher in Bitcoin dominance as part of wave 5. This would likely lead to a further decline in altcoins. In that case, referring back to the Litecoin chart analysis, it would confirm that we are currently in the equivalent of March 2020.
I’m glad to share my observations with you.
