MP MATERIALS long 19.50 cann add at 18.75 sl cls below 17.90
go small only , not much risk as stop is small , can see multiple support area. lets see if it holds for a run
Lithium
$ESS - Possible Breakout Above 50 & 200 SMA NYSE:ESS is looking like a possible breakout. It's above the 50 & 200 SMA, it's also on the Upper Bollinger Band Walk
CXO ReversalNot looking good for CXO -
On the daily chart, a double top has formed with a measured move down to 82c on the cards.
Zooming out on the weekly log chart, another double top is forming with a measured move to 40c.
Falling Wedge- BullishAfter finally retracing, the lithium sector is starting to look ready to breakout with buyers starting to step in. Watching LAC & PLL closely here as both are holding massive falling wedges, however, PLL is seemingly forming an ascending triangle as well on its weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below). Additionally, PLL is holding the same falling wedge on the 4-Hour timeframe with its Bollinger bands squeezing, along with a Bullish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern, MACD golden cross. Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge (Broader Market Conditions Permitting)- Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones in the meantime -- Price Targets & Previous Charts Attached In Description --
PT1- $56.12
PT2- $58.74
PT3- $60.07
PT4- $61.26+
--Weekly Timeframe--
--4-Hour Timeframe--
ASX: LEL - predicted $1.40, soon to be a lithium giant.Hopefully we close above the 50ema today, otherwise we'll be opening bellow it on Monday.
I believe we've already broken out of our "bear" market.
Using the Volume Profile indicator, I've found key areas where price reverses its trend. Every dip bellow the POC has been followed by large growth. Considering SP hit a 2 month gain of 104% after it dipped bellow the POC, it's safe to say the market is reacting to that and retail investors are taking profits. This is healthy market movement after a company doubled their MC.
Now, SP is sitting at a very key level, perfectly sat within the .5 fib, and price action moving closely to the POC. A dip bellow it in my books really wouldn't be the end and could probably cause a huge jump in SP.
The 2 Month POC is going to act as a level of resistance once price action moves closer, but breaking that will mean huge moves.
Ghost trend isn't meant to represent expected SP movment, simply a guide to show current trend. (We've been moving up for months, clearly we're just looking at a healthy market retrace)
$1.40 Level could see some heavily selling once reached due to past double top pattern at that level.
CDN Maverick Capital Corp. This company chart looks very bullish over the last 8 months you can see a clear trend line up and they are exploring for Lithium in Quebec and Argentina
IEA’s bullish outlook for electric vehicles “A new clean energy economy is emerging, and it is emerging much faster than many stakeholders, policymakers, industry players, and investors think today” – Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA during the Global EV Outlook 2023 press event on 26 April 2023.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its Global Electric Vehicle Outlook for 2023 on 26 April. Its assessment of the state of the industry is encouraging and its projections for the industry’s growth are exciting. Electrification of road transportation is the disruptive innovation the industry has been waiting for. It appears that the tipping point has been reached.
Highlights from 2022, and developments in 2023
Electric vehicle (EV) sales exceeded 10 million in 2022 (see Figure 1). This amounts to 14% of all new cars sold in 2022, up from 9% in 2021, and less than 5% in 2020. This trend has continued at the start of 2023 with over 2.3m EVs sold in the first quarter, 25% more than the same period last year. By the end of the year, sales could hit 14 million with an acceleration expected in the second half of the year1.
China remains the dominant market, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales last year, with Europe and the United States following behind. Nonetheless, there are promising signs of growth in emerging markets such as India, Thailand, and Indonesia where sales of electric cars last year more than tripled compared to 2021.
The key tailwinds
Policy support for the adoption of electric vehicles has never been stronger and it continues to strengthen. The European Union has set out CO2 standards for cars and vans aligned with 2030 goals set out in the Fit for 55 package. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rule could accelerate the journey to 50% EV market share by 20302.
Given strong support from policymakers and adoption from consumers, innovation in battery manufacturing also appears to have been catalysed. While it is a given that battery chemistries will continue to evolve and greater levels of efficiency will be achieved, developments along the way, such as CATL’s recent condensed battery launch, are noteworthy and encouraging.
On 19 April 2023, the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL, among the biggest names in the industry worldwide, unveiled a high-energy density, so-called ‘condensed battery’ at Auto Shanghai. CATL claims that this battery could not only meaningfully increase the range of EV batteries but could also help electrify passenger aircraft. Admittedly, there are multiple unknowns in CATL’s claims, including costs and delivery times, but it highlights how battery manufacturers are focused on achieving new degrees of efficiency.
Growing competition and, therefore, more choice for consumers is also facilitating the adoption of EVs. The number of electric car models worldwide exceeded 500 in 2022, more than double compared to 20183. While this is still significantly lower than the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) models on the market, this proliferation of models is increasing competition among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) which should help bring costs down.
Electrification, however, is going beyond passenger cars. In 2022, over half of India’s three-wheeler registrations were electric. Similarly, electric light commercial vehicle sales worldwide increased by more than 90% in 2022 compared to the year before4. Such encouraging growth is also being witnessed in other market segments like electric heavy-duty trucks and buses.
The forecast
Even in the IEA’s stated policies scenario (STEPS – a conservative scenario which only factors in existing policies), growth of electric vehicles is expected to be strong this decade (see Figure 2). Across the globe, countries are swiftly introducing bans on the sale of new ICE vehicles. Some countries, like Norway, have taken the lead by making this ban effective from 2025. For many other countries, the bans come into effect between 2030 and 2040. Collectively, therefore, it is reasonable to expect a meaningful uptick in EV sales as we progress towards those deadlines.
One of the biggest hurdles in EV adoption is the availability of ample public charging infrastructure. Fortunately, charging infrastructure is developing quickly, albeit at different rates in different countries. Overall, however, the IEA have an optimistic view on the number of publicly available charging points worldwide by 2030.
A renewed focus on the supply chain
According to the IEA, automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand increased by about 65% to 550 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022, from about 330 GWh in 2021, primarily because of growth in electric passenger car sales. In 2022, about 60% of lithium, 30% of cobalt, and 10% of nickel demand was for EV batteries. Only five years prior, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively.
Electric vehicles are not only driving demand for batteries, but also the underlying commodities. For investors, this means a holistic view of automotive and battery value chains is warranted when considering the electrification megatrend. For example, China holds a dominant position in both value chains and its role in terms of where it sits within the value chain is evolving rapidly. China is the biggest manufacturer of batteries worldwide but is also quickly establishing itself in the segment of car companies (OEMs) with the emergence of brands like BYD.
But as competition increases, more regulation is introduced, and further innovation happens, supply chains will develop. Some links may get broken while others get formed. All in all, an exciting time to be following this space.
$SGML: Lithium Gem?A few week ago we posted about the potential bear trap setting up in LIT. So far that thesis has played out and I give credence to a potential short term pullback here. However, that price action on SGML around 40 has been quite notable and when compared to other lithium based companies we see impressive relative strength. Any kind of growth / equities push could give the bulls a hand as well. Good luck
ATLX Atlas Lithium Correction To ContinueBy the looks of it ATLX still has some more room to correct and consolidate. The hype was really intense during the last run up. Lots of bag holders still waiting to get out after buying the top between FWB:30S and $40s. The MACD is pointed straight down on the weekly and still has lots more room to go before a possible curl up. The RSI is also pointed straight down and the Stoch RSI is pointed straight down and these are all on the weekly. Also ATLX has formed a megaphone top pattern and in my opinion its going to correct all the way down to the bottom of the megaphone at around $6 as I predicted in my last chart update. If the Megaphone breaks down below the bottom line then ATLX could head to $4 and then begin its possible reversal up. Still lots of hype in this stock so I am assuming that the correction is not over. If the Megaphone pattern breaks to the upside and breaks above $45 its previous high then this stock is going to go straight to $80 and possibly $175. I dont see that as being likely from the chart and the company fundamentals aren't very solid and possible shady business practices from recent reports that I have read. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. Thank you
ATLX Is About To Surprise Everyone $377-$522 Per ShareATLX is poised for massive gains over this next year and possibly sooner. Without getting into the fundamentals too much, if you look at Sigma which is very comparable to ATLX their market cap is around 3.5 billion. Sigma stock price is only in the HKEX:30 range because they have a ton of outstanding shares and a giant float. They have 107 million outstanding shares and a float of 103 million shares hence their HKEX:30 dollar price on their stock. The huge difference here is ATLX has only 6.7 million outstanding shares and about 4 million float. If we're assuming that ATLX reaches a market cap of $2.5 Billion which is still HKEX:1 Billion less than Sigma and other similar Lithium companies then the price of ATLX stock could reach a minimum of HKEX:377 dollars per share because of their low share count. Just divide $2.5 Billion by 6.7 million and you can see that. If ATLX reaches the same market cap as Sigma at 3.5 Billion then the share price would be a whopping HKEX:522 dollars. Sounds insane right but its not. ATLX has had some really awesome drill results, some of the largest mining area, and the world is moving towards green energy and vehicles and Lithium will be extremely sought after. China is buying more than you can imagine and seeing how China and Brazil are buddies..... Good luck out there and as always this is just my opinion and not financial advice of any kind. Thank you
GL1 (ASX) - Potential swing set up long Following the impulsive movement up since the March 23rd low, the chart formed an expanding flat which is followed by another smaller expanding flat. The longer the build up, the bigger the potential down the track. Usually a bigger impulse (after the flat) followed by consolidation is more desirable. If you look further back at the market structure, this ticker has reached $3.
Have a tight stop here whatever you're trading style if you jump in without further confirmation signals. (I would use a 5-7% stop loss).
I am only looking at charts here, not fundamentals.
$LPI long (B wave potential here)LPI has experienced an impulsive 25% drop after Chile announces that it will nationalise its country's lithium supply. Private companies will be forced to work with the state to develop the local industry. I have not looked in depth into Chile's lithium industry and the potential long term consequences but the market demonstrated how it felt about the announcement. SQM fell 17% and Albemarle fell 9% (both in the top 5 largest lithium companies in the world). It is no surprise th
From a charting perspective, this looks like a clear running flat but could also become an expanding flat down the track. The impulsive C wave down could also be interpreted as the end of a new A- wave. This could mean that there B wave potential here for a swing.
CXO ( potential swing trade long - April 2023)CXO looks to be forming a running flat in the short term. C-wave is incomplete so a little patience is required before considering an entry. Any move to the golden zone will need to be scrutinized. The 92c and 89c level represent sturdy resistance and support zones. Could also possibly become an expanding flat in the future. A tight stop loss here (5 to 7%) is required if there is a decision to play.
QPM LONG (ASX)QPM's debt financing is making progress. An important milestone was reached with a German supplier collaboration agreement as well as German Funding support. German companies Plinke GmbH and Andritz Separation GmbH & Siemens LTD have agreed with supplying a significant proportion of capital equipment required for the TECH PROJECT. Germany's Export Credit agency provided a tied loan guarantee of 500 million and Kfw IPEX confirmed an interest in providing 250 million.
QPM currently has A$1.4 billion in conditional debt funding. Investors await the potential debt commitments of K-Sure and other commercial banks. Investors also await an equity component here. QPM has done exceptionally well despite the economic climate but it is important to be objective as their 2.1b capex total remains a significant hurdle. A high level of risk is still involved here (despiting Stephen Grocott and his team continually derisking this project!). I have personally reduced my holdings out of concern of current macro conditions.
From a charting perspective, QPM has been in a deep downtrend since October 2022. QPM has experienced reprieve after the german supplier collaboration on the 4th of April. Without it, the ticker was in the doldrums experiencing a death cross on 7th December 2022. Any impulsive movement above the top trendline (15c to 17c) alongside a corrective flat in that range will constitute a buy signal. Any movement like this would probably coincide with further debt financing progress. Can Stephen Grocott and his team bring this home?
About to break out?They are literally printing money. Don't be surprised to see new all time highs in the next year
PLS Long (ASX)The C wave from March 2023 demonstrates bearish movement from falling lithium spot prices and a bearish macro environment. The C wave movement has turned this from a running flat to an expanding flat . Interesting to watch market psychology is at play here as participants sold PLS down despite a 1.2 billion in profit and a maiden 11c dividend paid out. Prices reached as low as $3.5 during this period. This could either be a completed expanding flat or the C wave in this flat could actually be the beginning of a new A wave. As demonstrated by the 2016 to 2020 corrective flat, prolonged consolidation lead to a 35 bag movement.
Regardless of whether it's the beginning of a new A wave or the end of an expanding flat, consolidation is healthy. Expect short term upside too. PLS long for the next decade.
** Note: During the end of March 2023, Albermarle attempted to acquire LTR. The big players are accumulating despite bearish sentiment.
Lithium Futures Lithium Futures are trading down with price correction.
Proxy for the EV (Electric Vehicle)
CXO LONG (ASX)Moved from a running flat to an expanding flat . Spot lithium prices have fallen 34% in the month of March, highlighting a slowdown in demand caused by contractionary monetary policy. The spillover effect onto major banks indicate a stronger possibility of further downside which may lead to a recession during summer (US). Downside is clearly linked with a number of macro factors including Fed induced banking crisis (SVB) and dropping lithium spot prices. Lithium stocks have dropped significantly in March 23 so will be expecting more corrective movement for now.
The world is moving towards electrification and CXO is now a producer. My forecast is that CXO will exceed $2 in 12-18 months .
Standard Lithium: Double Bottom at the PCZ of a Bullish GartleyStandard Lithium is Double Bottoming at the PCZ of a Bullish Gartley which also stands near the 200 Week SMA and is Bullishly Diverging on the MACD; If it can hold the PCZ and rally back above the 200 Week SMA, I think we will begin a big move up similar to $NLST.
The fun is about to startThe fun is about to start The fun is about to start The fun is about to start
$TKM - TREK Potential swing back up.TKM had a huge move on the 3 Nov on the release of the below High grade Assays.
Looking for it to trade back into that range marked out on the chart which it currently is. The range low here is key.
I'm looking for a reaction off the range low, OR a break below range and a Deviation and reclaim of the range low would be bullish and my trigger point to enter long.
Cut all below orange line. PIPs are big risk is big,
Looking at LIT ETF for confluence looks like it may be at a relative support zone .
NOV 3 announcement
TREK METALS LTD ( $TKM $TKM.ax ) has released " High Grade Lithium Assays of up to 3.07% Li2O at Tambourah
