The Healthcare Sector Index $XLV - Worth Watching SPDR Select Sector Fund – Healthcare Index AMEX:XLV
The chart speaks for itself, we have our breakout levels and our break down levels. We enter on a breakout and set a stop 5% under that support and we exit and or short if we fall under the two underside support levels.
Below I outline some reasons why the healthcare sector is worth paying attention too.
The healthcare industry is worth $808 billion in the United States as of 2021. 65% of the industry’s revenue comes from patient care. The global healthcare industry is worth $12 trillion.
In the U.S National health expenditures are projected to grow 5.4 percent, on average, over the course of 2023–31 and to account for roughly 20 percent of the economy by the end of that period. The insured share of the population is anticipated to exceed 92 percent through 2023 (figures pending), in part as a result of record-high Medicaid enrolment, and then decline toward 90 percent as coverage requirements related to the COVID-19 public health emergency expire.
The growth of the health-care sector is evident in employment data as well. In 1990, about 8 million Americans worked in health care; that figure has since doubled to 16 million. That’s the largest single employment segment in our economy.
In addition to the above, the west in general is an aging populace that is living longer. We will need these services more than we need staples during a recession. I believe this index can help us gauge the healthcare sector and what direction it will go next. We can watch the levels outlines and make a play if we wish. We have a hard upper boundary and lower boundary on a parallel channel on the chart. You know what to do when we breach any of these levels.
Outlined on the chart
XLV fund provides exposure to companies in
pharmaceuticals, health care equipment and supplies,
health care providers and services, biotechnology, life
sciences tools and services, and health care
technology industries. XLV is the oldest in the
segment, as such it is used widely for strategic or
tactical positions. Since XLV is both cap weighted
and fishes only from the S&P 500, it tilts heavily
toward mega-caps. For focused exposure to
leading health care names, XLV is tough to beat.
Top Five Holdings
UnitedHealth Group Inc NYSE:UNH 9.63%
Eli Lilly and Co NYSE:LLY 9.19%
Johnson & Johnson NYSE:JNJ 7.46%
Merck & Co NYSE:MRK 5.46%
AbbVie Inc 5.41%
Stay Healthy and Nimble Folks
PUKA
LLY
Updated Swing Trading Watchlist - Pullback OpportunitiesHello Traders,
As we dive deeper into our trading strategy inspired by Mark Minervini, I'm excited to share a detailed analysis of our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
This list is meticulously curated, focusing on stocks poised for potential pullback entries, suitable for short to medium-term trades. Here’s what we’ve analyzed:
Selection of Stocks in Strong Uptrends: Our primary filter is selecting stocks exhibiting strong uptrends over the past weeks or months. We use specific criteria like stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of enduring strength. Additionally, we look for stocks outperforming the market index, indicating relative strength.
Volume Analysis During Pullbacks: We observe the trading volume during pullbacks. An ideal scenario is a pullback on lower-than-average volume, suggesting a lack of selling pressure. A sudden increase in volume can sometimes signal capitulation, which might lead to a potential reversal.
Key Support Levels and Technical Indicators: Stocks approaching critical support levels, such as major moving averages or historical support zones, are of high interest. We combine this with technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to gauge oversold conditions and potential bullish divergence.
Price Action and Chart Patterns: We're scrutinizing price patterns that align with Minervini's SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) criteria. This includes looking for stocks forming bases, tight consolidations, or exhibiting orderly pullbacks without significant volume spikes. Flags, pennants, and narrow range days near support areas are particularly noteworthy.
Sector and Market Sentiment Analysis: Understanding the current market sentiment and sector rotation plays a crucial role. Stocks in leading sectors or those showing resilience in a weak market are preferred. We also consider the broader market trend and economic indicators to assess the overall risk environment.
Risk Management and Entry Points: Each stock on our watchlist comes with a predefined risk management plan, including stop-loss levels and potential entry points. We're waiting for a reversal signal, such as a high-volume rebound off a support level or a break of a short-term downtrend line, to initiate positions.
Earnings and Fundamental Check: While our focus is on technical analysis, we don't ignore fundamental aspects. We check upcoming earnings dates and ensure that the stocks have solid fundamentals, aligning with Minervini's preference for quality stocks.
Conclusion : This watchlist represents a blend of technical prowess and strategic foresight, aiming to capitalize on pullback opportunities in strong stocks. Remember, the key to successful swing trading lies in timing, precision, and risk management.
Stay alert for real-time updates as these setups evolve. Let's capture the market's rhythm together!
ELI LILLY targeting $705.00 if the 1D MA100 holds.Eli Lilly (LLY) has been on an incredible run ever since our March 01 buy signal (see chart below) that even broke above Channel Up:
We have been strong supporters of the company's fundamentals and those are translated into strong technical bullish patters, offering solid buy opportunities. Another such opportunity exists now as the price is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) near the bottom of the 2023 Channel Up.
As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is exactly on the Channel's bottom, holds, we remain bullish, targeting the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (similar to the May 22 High) at $705.00. If the 1D MA100 breaks though, we will take the loss and sell instead targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at $500.00 where a stronger buy opportunity exists.
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ELI LILLY Expected to rally above 700 if these conditions hold.LLY is holding the 1D MA50 on a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.021, MACD = 2.060, ADX = 24.740), which indicates a strong demand level for the stock. The 1D RSI which is under a LH trendline shows that the stock price is at a pre bullish breakout accumulation like the last week of July and early August. If it holds the line, we will buy and aim a +30% rise (TP = 710.00), following a regression of -8% on each top.
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LLY Bearish Confirmation Put in at the 3.618 Fibonacci ExtensionLLY has given us Bearish RSI Confirmation at the 3.618 Fibonacci Extension and now looks to push below the $580 level. This could quickly devolve into LLY making a much deeper Bearish Retrace that would bring it below trend. At that point, we could very well see LLY come all the way back down to fill the gap at $163.42
ELI LILLY Next bullish phase starts. Target 670.Eli Lilly / LLY stopped its short term decline yesterday a little over the 1day MA50.
The green 1day candle signals the start of the new bullish phase inside this double Channel Up.
The 1day RSI is on a similar pattern as August 3rd.
Assuming a declining rate of growth on each Higher High, buy and target 670 (+30% from the recent bottom).
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ELI LILLY Our gem on the verge of making a paradigm shift.Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has long been one of our best investments a real gem that even withstood and was practically unaffected by the 2022 inflation crisis. For long we have been using the Fibonacci Channel to display LLY's parabolic nature having broken above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension last May.
This time the price reversed much quicker than technically expected and is attempting again to break the top (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in 2020. If it closes above it, then we wil target the 3.0 Fibonacci Channel extension at $700. If it gets rejected and stays within the Channel Up, we will sell and target the recent Support at $520.
Note that a break above this 3-year Channel Up may constitute a paradigm shift as the stock has never hit a new upper Fibonacci level that quickly (remember it broke above the 2.0 Fib just 5 months ago). This can transcend LLY into an even more aggressive bullish nature that we can't yet quantify.
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ELI LILLY Needs to correct a little more. Massive buy after.Eli Lilly has completed 3 red weeks in a row. The parabolic rise it is seeing for years is seen accurately on this Fibonacci Channel.
Every such price peak, pulled back to under the MA100 (1d), which is now at 492.43, in order to gather buyers.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 490 (between the MA100 (1d) and the Fibonacci 2.0 level.
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is just formed a Sell Cross. Only once since 2018 has a Sell Cross failed to deliver a sizeable drop.
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ELI LILLY: Possible to start a strong multi week correction.Eli Lilly has seen enormous growth over the past few years and in particularly in 2023. This Channel Up on the log chart's 1W timeframe is the best depiction of the long term trend. The 1W outlook got extremely overbought technically three weeks ago (RSI = 68.989, MACD = 46.590, ADX = 60.019) and is now correcting. The rejection took place at the top of the Channel Up.
This is a hint that investors should be exiting LLY and not entering. Historically the most efficient level to buy is on the 1W MA50 with a max extension to the 1W MA100. That is our entry strategy. Don't take chances and take the best possible entry. This stock will reward us enormously in 2024.
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LLY, This ALL-TIME-HIGH ROCKET is a NEVER ENDING STORY!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about LLY on several timeframe perspectives. LLY printed an major bullish breakout literally over night bouncing out of the range. In the recent times the pharma industry transformed into a eager bullish environment since the gains seen because of the "pandemic" and LLY is a stock already present since 1978 in the 19th century, a time before the great depression. The FED is considering a more dovish policy as inflationary pressures in the U.S. decreased and LLY showed an development typical for more bullish stocks within the market, it already bounced before the U.S. CPI release signaled an easing in inflation, such moves are always important to anticipate as it is the case with LLY and the long direction.
Within the chart LLY is now forming a flag-formation on the local term which is likely to complete with a breakout in the near future setting up the next wave C extension into the upper directions. On the global term LLY bounced several times within the ascending trendline and has an underlying strong volatility-spike structure which is bolstering the bullish sentiment here. Once LLY has shown up with the breakout dynamics and reached the targets of the local formation this is likely to convert into the continuation of the global trend as well. Currently, the bullish scenario should be considered if the FED does not become more hawkish on interest rates or there is a major demand shortage increasing supply within the pharma market this should be a considerable scenario for the next times.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support is greatly appreciated, all the best!
VP
XLV - Failed Breakout?HealthCare looks to have just closed the week with a failed breakout.
Getting a weekly close below the impulse breakout green canceled is never a good sign.
Off of Bearish consolidation some Health care stocks may be a good short play.
Using the up-sloping trend line & weekly 200 MA as support.
Using the Weekly 100 MA as resistance . Recapturing the Weekly 100 MA could result in upside reversal.
ELI LILLY Hit the top of the 4-year Channel. Relief sell-off?Earlier this year we gave a strong buy signal on Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) on March 01 (see chart below) where we called for the most optimal buy entry exactly at the bottom of the bullish pattern:
The price has now hit (last week) the top of the 4 year logarithmic Channel Up, highly overbought with the RSI on the 1W time-frame reaching 84.30, breaking above the August 16 2021 High. As last week's 1W candle closed in red (the first after 5 straight bullish weeks) this is considered so far a Higher Highs rejection and calls for an early sell signals towards the end of October, targeting the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) at $500.00, where the stock will start turning into a buy opportunity again (assuming the RSI is below 55.00).
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ELI LILLY Approaching the top of the Channel. Sell opportunity.Last time we looked at Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) was on March 01 (see chart below) where we called for the most optimal buy entry exactly at the bottom of the bullish pattern:
The price is now approaching the top of the 3 year logarithmic Channel Up, highly overbought with the RSI on the 1W time-frame at 80.00. This gradually calls for a sell towards the end of August, targeting the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) at $480.00, where the stock will turn into a buy opportunity again.
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LLY Earnings Play LONG ( Flat Bottom Triangle Breakout)My analysis is on the 2H. I am uniquely qualified in my fundamental analysis. This is a one
day until earnings. My thesis is the earnings will stimulate what will be a breakout from
a flat bottom triangle. I will buy one share of stock. I will spend a similar amount on
call options striking $460 expiring August 11th. I see LLY as surging while PFE is a bit
challenged with the fall off in Covid vaccine work. If you find this idea interesting and
might appreciate my ideas as to a stop loss and targets, leave a comment. Like and
subscribe. Trade well !
LLY Eli Lilly Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LLY Eli Lilly prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 450usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-11,
for a premium of approximately $11.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PFE Large Cap Pharma increased its dividendPFE just raised its dividend On the chart it has been trending downward
as shown also by a down sloping anchored VWAP bands. Price is currently
sitting at long term support and two standard deviations below VWAP.
It appears to be ready to reverse from the deep undervalued area.
In confirmation, teh voume indicator shows moderate increased relative
volume compared with March. I see this as a good opportunity to enter
a swing long trade or investment. PFE has its increased dividend as a
hint to shareholders of increasing earnings also with the next generation of
COVID vaccines in the pipeline along with a diversified line of other
products. The only thing that will slow PFE down in federal legislation to
limit the retail MSRP prices of its products to all consumers including those
with no insurance and commercial coverage outside federal programs.
PFE is solid as a rock. I see the buy signal.
LLY - Rising Trend Channel [Mid Term]- LLY is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- LLY has also received a positive signal from the moving average indicator, thus signaling a continued rise.
- LLY has broken up through resistance at 375.
- The short term momentum of the stock is strongly positive, with RSI above 70.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
ELI LILLY on the best buy opportunity of the year!Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 30 2020 low exactly on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). As the 1D RSI turned oversold below the 30.00 barrier, while the price touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, it has filled all conditions for the most optimal buy level of the year. There have been another three similar oversold events, each on one year since 2020.
Once the price breaks above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again, which you can use as confirmation and take the buy after it, we'll set a target at $390.00 on a 4 month horizon.
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