LNG
Natural Gas - surges +12% to YTD highsNatural Gas surges +12% - lifting producers' shares to YTD highs
Range Resources $RRC & other natural gas producers ripped to 52-week highs today as U.S. front-month natural gas soared to its largest one-day gain since Sept a year ago - closing at +12% to $5.898/MMBtu
Today's settlement is the 2nd highest this year after the front-month contract hit $6.312 on 10/05/21
52-week highs today - $CHK +9.1%, $RRC +6.3%, $AR +5.7%
Scoring big gains - $CRK +9%, $SWN +7.4%, $CTRA +5.9%, $EQT +5.2%
#LongLNG
Nat Gas eases before winter bull run? Natural Gas prices seem to take a little bit chill after a heavy bullish period. European prices, which have been pulling the market around the globe, traded lower mid-October than in early-Oct. Demand still seems to be high around the world and most storage levels are on a relatively low level. This indicates that bullish price risk is still here and Natural Gas might still increase to higher levels we have seen this year.
Fossil Fuel Fury: Natural Gas Takes The Bullish BatonNatural gas is combustible as producers extract the energy commodity from the earth’s crust. The energy commodity’s price action has been equally volatile since the CME’s NYMEX division rolled out futures contracts over three decades ago in 1990.
Natural gas probes above the $5 level- a nearly eight-year high
Heat and storms have been bullish
LNG demand is booming
US energy policy- lower supplies when the demand is rising- A potent bullish cocktail
Approximately ten weeks to go in the injection season- Inventories are low
The nearby NYMEX natural gas futures contract has traded from a low of $1.02 to a high of $15.65 per MMBtu. The futures price reflects natural gas’s value at its delivery point at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. The Henry Hub price is a benchmark. Local prices can vary and trade a substantial discount or premium to the nearby NYMEX futures.
Massive discoveries of quadrillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions of the US had weighed on the price over the past years. Technological advances in fracking lowered the production cost. Since necessity is the mother of invention, the demand side of natural gas’s fundamental equation rose with supplies as natural gas replaced coal in power generation and liquification opened a new demand vertical. LNG now travels worldwide via ocean vessels and is not limited to pipeline transmission.
After falling to the lowest price in a quarter of a century in late June 2020 at $1.432 per MMBtu, the price has more than tripled. Last week, it probed at over $5 per MMBtu for the first time since February 2014, during the heart of a colder than average winter season.
Natural gas probes above the $5 level- a nearly eight-year high
With the start of the 2021/2022 winter season still over two months away, the natural gas futures market was in full winter mode last week as the price exploded higher.
As the daily chart of October NYMEX natural gas futures highlights, natural gas futures eclipsed the $5 per MMBtu on September 8 and rose to a high of $5.058 on September 10.
Natural gas has made higher lows and higher highs throughout the 2021 injection season, with the latest highs coming last week. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the natural gas futures market, rose in June and remained elevated as the price continued its ascent. The metric was at the highest level of 2021 last week and the highest level since early 2020. Increasing open interest when a futures market price moves higher is typically a technical validation of a bullish trend.
The move above $5 was a significant event for the natural gas market.
The monthly chart illustrates that natural gas futures rose above a critical technical resistance level at the November 2018 $4.929 per MMBtu peak. The energy commodity rose to its highest price since February 2014, a nearly eight-year high. The next technical target stands at the 2014 $6.493 high.
Meanwhile, natural gas futures had not traded above $5 in September in thirteen years since 2008. At the end of last week, nearby natural gas prices have risen by 251.3% from the 2020 $1.432 low to a closing price of $5.031 on nearby futures on September 10.
Heat and storms have been bullish
It may be early for natural gas to soar on seasonal factors as the beginning of the withdrawal season in mid-to-late November is still two months away. However, the price had been trending higher as the summer was warmer than average, increasing cooling demand. Moreover, the devastation caused by Hurricane Ida pushed the energy commodity to new highs. In mid-September, we are still in the dangerous period when storms can wreak havoc with natural gas infrastructure along the Gulf of Mexico.
Since natural gas replaced coal as the primary energy commodity generating power, cooling during the summer season has seen natural gas demand rise. For many years, natural gas was a winter commodity, but electricity requirements have made demand a more year-round affair.
LNG demand is booming
Natural gas discoveries and technological advances in extracting the energy commodity from the earth’s crust via fracking fostered a new demand vertical. In the past, natural gas only traveled by pipelines, limiting demand to mostly landlocked areas. Liquefication evolved the market as it now travels around the globe to areas where the price is higher.
Natural gas prices are rising worldwide. On Thursday, September 9, in an interview on CNBC, Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) CEO said the company is “sold out” of LNG for the next two decades. Cheniere is doing so well it plans to pay shareholders a dividend.
LNG shares reached a bottom in 2020 at $27.06. At $88.05 on September 10, the leading US LNG company’s stock was 225.4% higher as it almost kept pace with the energy commodity. The bottom line is LNG demand is booming and has caused natural gas to trickle instead of flow into storage over the past months.
US energy policy- lower supplies when the demand is rising- A potent bullish cocktail
While the weather, LNG, and overall inflationary pressures have provided lots of support for natural gas prices over the past months, the most significant factor has been the dramatic shift in US energy policy.
The Biden administration has put the US on a greener path towards renewable, cleaner energy. Fossil fuels like oil and gas have been pushed aside as the administration addresses climate change. The Obama administration did the same with coal, which became a four-letter word in the US energy sector.
The fact is that fossil fuels continue to power the world. It will take decades for technology to replace oil, gas, and coal with wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources. Even if the US and Europe move to alternative energy sources, the world’s most populous countries, China and India, are likely to continue to burn fossil fuels. While natural gas is up 251.3% from the 2020 low, coal gas has done even better.
The chart shows that the price of thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam rose from $38.45 per ton at the 2020 low to $169.55 at the end of last week, a gain of over 340%. In a world starving for energy, fossil fuel prices are on fire.
In 2021, the Biden administration canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, banned fracking for oil and gas on federal lands in Alaska, and is increasing regulations and taxes on the fossil fuel industry. Meanwhile, the administration gave the go-ahead for a natural gas pipeline from Russia into Germany.
The twenty-year war in Afghanistan ended, but the US war on hydrocarbons to battle climate change is only getting started. Meanwhile, the administration calls climate changes an “existential threat” to the world. It took twenty years, four US Presidents, billions if not trillions of dollars, and many lives to replace the Taliban with the Taliban.
It seems a bit hypocritical to transfer the production and pricing power in crude oil back to OPEC+. It took decades for the US to achieve energy independence. The current administration has replaced OPEC+ with OPEC+. Oil, natural gas, and coal are fossil fuels. Climate change is a global issue. The world continues to depend on these commodities. The US retreat only hands to other countries that will now dominate pricing. Moreover, the transfer occurs as the demand is exploding, putting more upside pressure on traditional energy prices.
Approximately ten weeks to go in the injection season- Inventories are low
In around ten weeks, the natural gas market will move into the 2021/2022 withdrawal season, when inventories begin to decline as heating demand rises. We are moving into the peak demand season with stockpiles at low levels.
As of September 3rd, 2.923 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were stored throughout the United States in preparation for the upcoming winter season. Stocks are 16.8% below last year’s level and 7.4% under the five-year average for the beginning of September. At the end of the 2020 injection season, natural gas stocks rose to a high of 3.958 trillion cubic feet. An average injection of over 100 bcf per week would lift inventories to that level. The robust demand for LNG, lower production, and the regulatory environment under the current administration means that there will be the lowest level of natural gas in storage at the beginning of the winter months in years. A cold winter could cause a shortage of the energy commodity.
Meanwhile, heating homes will be costly during the coming winter season. If temperatures are colder than average, the bullish party could become parabolic for the volatile energy commodity. Natural gas reached a milestone over the past week as the price moved above the $5 per MMBtu level for the first time since 2014. In early July, NYMEX crude oil traded at its highest price since 2014. Coal is at a thirteen-year high.
The Taliban now controls Afghanistan, again. The US was formerly the world’s leading energy producer. The current green energy path means that energy independence has also slipped through the administration’s fingers.
Bull markets rarely move in straight lines. Corrections can be fast and furious. However, the trends remain higher, and a new set of fundamentals support higher lows as the bullish fossil fuel frenzy is no flash in the pan.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Liquid Natural Gas #LNG #NatGas Long / Short Term ViewLNG has a long history of not getting any love.
Famously, in 1971...a Russian oil rig fell into a crater filled with LNG. They figured the best move was not to capture the LNG...but to use it to burn the oil rig. 50 years later...that crater is still burning...and is known as the Door to Hell .
LNG has often been thought of a cheap, plentiful energy source...and a second cousin to oil....a distant second cousin.
As you can see in the chart... it has experienced some dramatic price spikes since 2000....usually amid extreme heat or cold spells. Due to the short duration of the temperature anomalies, the price drops just as quickly as it spiked.
However, this time is different. We are at the beginning of a global energy transition. Earlier this year, governments from around the world have backed the " net zero by 2050 " goal. This essentially means the world is pushing for a drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels.
We are rapidly increasing renewable energy production...however...this 2050 goal is very ambitious for a world energy infrastructure built for oil.
The most pragmatic experts agree that fossil fuels will still be in use by then...though greatly reduced.
And of the carbon producing fuels...liquid natural gas must play a greater role in the world's energy infrastructure.
So the long term fundamental view look almost inevitably bullish.
Recently we have seen a supply disruption as a pipeline segment in Arizona exploded...tragically killing 2 people. (Story sourced from Leticia Gonzalez twitter ).
In addition, Hurricane Ida disrupted supply production while temperatures have remained elevated, causing a greater demand.
As always...markets don't move is straight lines. However, I see demand for LNG continuing to increase globally for a long time.
*While writing this...Nat Gas jumped $0.20...breaking short term resistance...currently sitting at $4.855
ETHUSDT Daily S/R| Price Action| Trend| Trade Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – ETHUSDT – trading at a key support that has been respected on multiple attempts,
Points to consider,
- Price Actin Corrective
- Daily S/R Support
- Daily S/R Resistance
- Low Volume
- Rotation
ETHUSDT’s immediate price action is trading at a key support that allows for a bullish bias.
The current objective is the swing high, exceeding this level will increase the probability of a trend continuation.
The current volume is below average, an influx is highly imminent when an impulsive move comes – rotation to the highs.
Overall, in my opinion, ETHUSD is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Trading mastery is a state of complete acceptance of probability, not a state of fight it.”
― Yvan Byeajee
EURNZD LONG After PullbackEURNZD has been in great momentum and i expect a pull back to 1.69500. for a trend continuation
Natural Gas Falling Wedge Short Term & Medium Term Bearish
Long Term Bullish after completion of last leg down of this Falling Wedge
I expect we’re at our Top (3.8-3.95) then we start rolling back all the way to the bottom. Then the next and 4th move upwards should break easily 6$
Abaxx Technologies $ABXX /$ABXXF TANotes state my thoughts on the matter. I could see price being supported by the LR mean if a roll over does occur.
There is SPECULATION that Abaxx may be awarded its clearing house license over the coming week. This may provide the catalyst to push Abaxx out of its DTL. I am holding long shares and looking to see some tight price action in the +3SD channel to set up a push up.
Abaxx is a pre-rev company and trades on the NEO exchange in Canada. It trades OTC on the QX by the ticker $ABXXF. You can expect spreads of up to 0.05. I recommend Limit Buys.
As always do your own due diligence before buying a security, especially a pre-rev one. And follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
Slow Moving Abaxx Tech Is About To ShineThe Company:
Abaxx is a blockchain and ESG company focused on commodities like LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) and Gold! Abaxx Tech came to the market through a RTO (Reverse Take-Over) of New Millennium Iron (NML & NWLNF). The serially successful mining and media billionaire mogul, Robert Friedland, was one of Abaxx's first angel investors. Abaxx Technologies has multiple subsidiaries. One of the subsidiaries is the Abaxx Exchange where Abaxx Tech receives a royalty for the commodities listed on the exchange. Brilliant company with proven leadership. See more info about the company at:
Abaxx.Tech & Abaxx.Exchange
The Trade:
Since the inception of Abaxx has moved rather slowly. It looks to be building on what looks to be a cup and handle pattern on the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts - All look super bullish!!
The daily chart shows that a small cup has formed since ABXXF started trading on Dec 18, 2020. As of today, Mar 29, 2021, we seem to forming the handle with a few days left for this month of March. The price may fall between $2.96 and $2.88 before rebounding to complete the handle formation.
If we include the price action of New Millennium Iron before the RTO, the weekly and monthly charts for ABXXF show a much larger cup and handle formation. The resistance level and breakout point will be @ $4.18.
Blue skies ahead for the green company. See the link for related idea below.
Abaxx is currently listed on the Neo Exchange in Canada and on the OTC in the US under: ABXX & ABXXF
This is not investment advice. I am long on ABXXF and have been a shareholder since it's inception through the RTO.
YATEC (MOEX:YAKG) - THE POTENTIAL UNICORN AT THE LNG MARKETI`m always on the lookout for unicorn companies that can have significant capitalization growth. I`m particularly interested in the oil and gas sector, as it is currently undergoing a dramatic transition from oil to liquefied natural gas. Observing all the projects being implemented for the LNG, I found a company that is located in a rather interesting place relative to the key sales markets - Asian markets.
YATEC – is a leading Russian independent gas company that operating in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation.
YATEC engages in the exploration, extraction, processing, and sale of natural gas and gas condensate. Its products include stable gas condensate, heavy heating oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel. It also involves ingeneration and sale of electricity and heat. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Yakutsk, Russia
Currently YATEC implementing Yakutsky LNG project that is quiet similar to Novatek projects.
If we compare the dynamics of changes in the value of YATEC shares with Novatek shares, we can clearly see the correlation. YATEC is actively implementing the LNG project.
According to newsroom:
BRIEF-Russia's Yatek Increases Area Of Subsoil Use In Yakutia By 23 Times
Russia's Federal Agency for Subsoil Management Rosnedra says:
* ENERGY COMPANY YATEK WON 3 ROSNEDRA AUCTIONS AND INCREASED AREA OF SUBSOIL USE IN YAKUTIA BY 23 TIMES - ROSNEDRA
* YATEK OBTAINED RIGHT TO USE SUBSOIL IN NORTH, SOUTH AND MAYSKY BLOCKS WITH TOTAL AREA OF 43.5 THOUSAND SQUARE KM - ROSNEDRA
I suppose that its a good trigger for buying the shares. YATECs total resources with increased area of subsoil are more than 800 billion cubic meters of naatural gas.
I suppose its enough for LNG Project.
So, I`m in, buying for long.
My first target is 10x - 500 - 600 RUB/share
NEXTIt appears this is a really good trade. With Oil and LNG prices on the rise this could earn good profit. It appears that RSI and MACD are reversing and its oversold on daily.
MNRL-LNG, Long the pair Long MNRL and short LNG. This is a correlated and co-integrated pair . We are trading the spread , exit will be median band .
Cheniere (LNG)$LNG trying to break out of its consolidation after a nice move off of their 2020 lows. Could see a move back to the $70s
Gas-LONGCompany just made some major moves and technicals looking promising. If you believe in LNG shipping this ship is on serious discount
* I would suggest you do your own research and have a deep look on balance sheet
The long term outlook holds - The breakoutOne week after our initial analysis NG is already recovering! If you went long last week move your SL to cost, unless NG goes above 2 and holds, we remain in the bearish channel and could test the low one more time. Long term outlook remains very bullish.
NG final leg for 5 yearsNG is about to take the final leg down to complete cycle 3 down wave. Three Drivers pattern should be complete with that leg and the next up move will push for the breakout of the 11-years channel.
Tell Breaks 2 BucksTELL is a LNG company that has engaged in the largest natural contract ever done. The contract has been pushed off and redated several times due COVID and market conditions. Trump is meeting Modi, this will be apart of their discussion. Driftwood project will be redated and signed this time. As India is trying to secure a great future for their Energy production. India is now the fast economic growth sector as China slows down. TELL is currently highly sought by companies for purchase. The managers are excellent and put company first so great long term success. This will go to 3 dollars very soon. Get in now. My original post of this was broken by powell speech but now its formed double bottom and has found a price agreement.
TELL - LNG Season with broken cup handleTELLURIAN LNG is poised for a come back, if not for recent oil glut with no where to store it leading to negative prices. This shows a broken cup handle as well failing to break resistance up. Watching and waiting as LNG will recover and still lower CO2 emissions and cleaner than OIL (WTI) for most countries. New super carriers awaiting back to new normal.
LNG
NYSE:DLNG
NASDAQ:GLNG
AMEX:CQP
Resistance Broken + Gap FillIn addition to the technicals... Iran has been hit harder than most countries by COVID-19 and its economy is creaking under merciless U.S. sanctions. With nowhere else to turn, the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani has been forced to cede ground to hardliners. And these hardliners are determined to force Trump into a long and costly war.
Just last week, missiles were fired at a U.S. oil project in Iraq.
Then, earlier this week, a group of unidentified armed men, believed to be Iranian commandos, seized a Hong Kong-flagged tanker and escorted it into Iranian waters.
We’re long $LNG PT $42 short-term is conservative.
