Solana Battle Plan Update 3: Price to reverse at Local HighThis is my 4th idea looking at Solana with Ethereum as a pattern, benchmark, or comparison. I used this pattern to identify downside targets and potential reversals and now I am using it to call a local high. This is basic and fundamental charting.
Both charts show a 5 impulse Elliot Wave to the upside. With such a clear pattern and impulsive move we don’t see a continuation pattern yet. We Solana does not show an ascending triangle, a cup and handle, or even a symmetrical triangle. Without a continuation pattern we must suspect price will stall at a previous support. Seeing where price flipping support to resistance and vise versa at key levels is one of the basics that can take years to master.
That previous support is the bear trap that was created at the beginning of the bear market. We can see on the right where it played out with Ethereum and I strongly suspect we are seeing the initial stages of that reversal in Solana.
Of course, there are some key differences in the two charts. We can see that when we look at other indicators. I don’t want this idea to become unmanageable so I will just look at one of the basics, the Monthly Bollinger Band. It is pretty clear that looking at the Bollinger Band it looks like Solana did a much better job than Ethereum. Solana has pushed its head above the monthly Bollinger band to reach the previous bull trap whereas Ethereum didn’t even reach the baseline. But either way, price being out of the monthly Bollinger band or near the middle with weekly bearish divergence at previous support still suggests reversal.
I do hope to see the lower limit of the monthly BB to snug up and flatten off to indicate a local low is in when I see Solana double bottom.
Solana Against Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB
Solana also looks like it is in a dreadful position against Bitcoin. The zone of resistance is drawn, in part, due to the MACD oscillaton below zero and the amount of sideways action we needed to have that happen.
The bearish similarities with Solana and trading pairs continues with Ethereum.
BNB has a bit of a different set up. It does not have a clear bull trap like SOL has against BTC and ETH. Rather it had a descending triangle top and a return move to the support of the triangle. Price has returned to the base of the descending triangle and I think with the indicators so overbought we would assume another pull back.
Conclusion and my plan
Solana looks like it has hit a local high against USD, BTC, BNB and ETH. There are so many temptations to get out of Solana into a different larger, less volatile token that I don’t see most day or swing traders holding onto Solan for long. Especially margin traders. Timing the shortside can be a wee bit tricky but it can be done. I am staying away from that.
I suspect that Solana will be setting a higher low W pattern. If it does, I will basically be rotating everything I can into it as I expect it will be making a higher high. AS the main chart shows that higher high would be about 100x from the low. If it sets an equal low, then I will suspect it will roughly return to an all-time high. That would be about 25X. That is decent enough for crypto but in all honesty if Solana sets a lower low, I will be looking for a different token to rotate into. Right now, my biggest crypto bag continues to be Fantom as I really like the Big W pattern it is in.
Localhigh
26/06/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $31443.0
Last weeks low: $28847.4
Midpoint: $26251.8
BTC experienced a massive week of price action last week with nearly non stop climbing up to a high of nearly 31.5K. The all important 32K is still yet to be tagged this year however we have made new yearly highs with acceptance above 30K
The news of a Bitcoin ETF cancelled out the SEC & Binance news, this week is very important for the crypto market in general. With consolidation under the local high it's gearing up for a push above to take out that liquidity above 32K.
After that we have a large FVG near the 0.25 (27.5k) area that could require a revisit before continuing this bullish trend.
There is a bullish orderblock at last weeks midpoint and that would be a healthy correction after a large rally. from there we can plan for what happens next.
APTOS TOKEN UNLOCKAPT has a token unlock fast approaching, 0.45% of the total supply (4.5m APT) is to be unlocked at 0.5:30 UTC on 12th June 2023.
Here are my thoughts going into this event, how I feel the market will react as well as key areas to look out for.
Firstly looking back to the latest APT token unlock back in January. We saw initial sell side pressure as new tokens flood the market, a gradual decline in price throughout the day ending in a -9% drawdown. However the days that followed were very bullish, with APT climbing approximately 40% the following week post unlock.
This is not unnatural price movement during an unlock event, so although not guaranteed, we can assume similar will happen this time too. As the chart shows price is currently following a triangle pattern capped by a local high of $9.00 that is being tested as I write this post. Just above is a bearish orderblock created by a price action imbalance and happens to create a good midpoint for the short term range we find ourselves in. This area will be a large obstacle for APT and in my opinion will cap off the short term rally we have had going into the unlock.
Then as we approach June 12th, price sells off temporarily due to high sell side pressure of a large influx of new coins. Before buyers react and look to attack that midpoint once more with new buyers that happily bought lower during the unlock event, perhaps using the 4H 200ema as new support that has now upturned and looking bullish.
These are just my thoughts on the upcoming event, in reality nobody knows what the future holds however the past can be used to learn from.
DYOR
NFA
GTC/USDT: BINANCE:GTCUSDTPERP BINANCE:GTCUSDT
Hello everyone 😃
Before we start to discuss, I'll be so glad if you share your opinion on this post's comment section and hit the like button if you enjoyed it!
$GTC have reached the Supply zone and the local highs are located before the DARVAS box's high.
With the current local high and the Supply above, It's better to have the SHORT here with a SL located at the local higher high at $1.426.
I'll trail my Stop-Loss after reaching the TP1.
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@Helical_Trades
GOOGL Weekly Resistance| S/R Flip| Blue Sky Breakout Evening Traders,
Today’s Technical Analysis – GOOGL – breaking a multi-year weekly resistance with strong volume. Consolidation and a retest of structure will confirm a new range.
Points to consider,
- Multiple weekly closes
- Strong volume
- S/R Flip retest (confirmation)
- Local high (blue sky breakout
GOOGL has closed consecutive weekly candles above structural resistance. this shows strength in price action as volume was considerably high at the point of break.
A Support/Resistance Flip will further confirm a true break as this will solidify the new support
GOOGL is in a strong multi-year bull trend, taking out the recent highs will establish a blue sky breakout.
Overall, in my opinion, GOOGL confirming an S/R flip will be extremely bullish. This will mean that the multi-year range has broken and price is likely to establish new highs.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“The hard, cold reality of trading is that every trade has an uncertain outcome.” ― Mark Douglas,